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© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy Policies of IEA Countries -In-depth Review of the Slovak Republic 2018
Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA
Central European Energy Conference, Bratislava, 19 November 2018
IEA
2© OECD/IEA 2018
Global energy context
• Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy:
Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility
Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’
Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a
push
Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in 2018
For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion
• Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of
its reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate
• Policy makers need well-grounded insights about different possible futures &
how they come about.
3© OECD/IEA 2018
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2011
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2012
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2013
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2014
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2015
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2016
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2017
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2018
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2019
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2020
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In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing
economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
The new geography of global energy
2021
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2022
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2023
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2024
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2025
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2026
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2027
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2028
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2029
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2030
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2031
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2039
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By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
Global energy demand development
4© OECD/IEA 2018
Wind electricity generation in the EU more than triples to 1 100 TWh by 2040;
the rapid increase of variable forms of generation calls for new approaches to system integration
Wind to become the largest power source in the EU
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
Coal Nuclear Gas Other renewables Solar PV Wind
Share of electricity generation by source in the EU, 2017-40
5© OECD/IEA 2018
40
80
120
160
China Russia India
GW
2017
The contribution of nuclear power is at risk of substantial declines in leading markets,
while large growth is coming, as China takes first position within a decade
Two directions for nuclear power globally
40
80
120
160
UnitedStates
EuropeanUnion
Japan
Retirements from 2017
2040
GW
Growth in
developing economies
Additionsto 2040
2017
Without policy change
& new project starts
6© OECD/IEA 2018
Europe's gas production declines faster than its demand, requiring a modest increase in imports;
LNG grows to cover almost a third of EU imports, improving supply diversity and security
Large increase in gas imports globally, but modest growth in the EU
-100
0
100
200
300
400
ChinaEuropean Union
Japan & Korea
India Southeast Asia
bcm
Net gas imports in 2040Net gas imports in 2017 Shares in EU gas trade, 2017
PipelinePipeline
Shares in EU gas trade, 2040
LNG
7© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy in the Slovak RepublicFindings and recommendations from the Slovak IDR
8© OECD/IEA 2018
Increased cross-border capacity has reduced dependence on Russia for oil and gas imports,
and new regional projects will help further
The Slovak Republic has significantly increased its oil and gas security
Infrastructure for natural gas
Gas interconnection
with Poland under
construction
New gas
connection
with Hungary
Reverse flow
with Ukraine
Reverse
flow in gas
pipelines
with
Austria
and CR
9© OECD/IEA 2018
Gas interconnection
with Poland under
construction
Infrastructure for oil
Increased cross-border capacity has reduced dependence on Russia for oil and gas imports,
and new regional projects will help further
The Slovak Republic has significantly increased its oil and gas security
Reverse
flow in gas
pipelines
with
Austria
and CR
Increased
capacity in
crude oil
connection
with Hungary
(Croatia)
New gas
connection
with Hungary
Reverse flow
with Ukraine
10© OECD/IEA 2018
Nuclear and renewables have replaced coal power, and with 1 GW of new nuclear planned to come
online in 2019, the Slovak Republic’s electricity supply will be further based on low-carbon sources
Low-carbon electricity covers 80% of generation, and growing
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
TWh
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Biofuels and waste
Solar and wind
Net import/export
Electricity generation by source, 1973-2017
11© OECD/IEA 2018
District heating offers an efficient & affordable option in households and industry, but more flexible
regulations will be needed to attract investment to modernise the system amid falling demand for heating
District heating systems need to adapt to lower heat demand
District heating generation by fuel, 2010-17
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (E)
PJ
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
Biofuels and waste
Coal
12© OECD/IEA 2018
The IEA’s key recommendations for the Slovak Republic
• Update the 2014 Energy Policy and incorporate strong targets and objectives for
2030 and beyond on energy security, CO2 emissions and energy markets
• Develop a clear and transparent programme for eliminating administratively
determined end-user prices of electricity and natural gas
• Modernise district heating by introducing a new regulatory framework to
encourage investment and enhance flexibility
• Take further measures to improve energy efficiency across all sectors
• Continue to work closely with the IEA on all aspects of energy policy, including to
further strengthen energy security and improve energy market functioning
13© OECD/IEA 2018
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