energy policy report

ENERGYPOLICYREPORTEnergy scenarioforItalianmiddle‐termenergyfuture

1 IntroductionItaly is one of the most developed country in the world, it is part of the Euro zone, G8 and G20. The

economic and industrial situation is changing in the last few years, therefore it is important to have a

precise starting point for a suggested energy policy. The decided date for this report is 2010.

The energy consumption in 2010 was 170.2 Mtoe (1979.9 TWh) (World Bank, 2015), the 14th in the world

(U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2015), but with a Gross Domestic Production (GDP) of 2,051,412

millions of dollars (8th in the world) (World Bank, 2011) Italy was one of the most efficient country: the

energy intensity of GDP at constant purchasing power parities, which measure the total primary energy

required to generate a unit of GDP, was 0.104 koe/$2005p (5th in the world) (Enerdata, 2014).

The 2010 gross final consumption was 127.5 Mtoe (1482.82 TWh), excluding non‐energy uses (other fossil

products such as white spirit, paraffin waxes, lubricants, bitumen,… not used for energy production), the

distribution per sector is shown in figure 1 (Italian Government, 2013).

Figure 1: “Final energy consumption 2010, % total consumption, estimates” (Italian Government, 2013).

The electric power consumption in 2010 was 346.2 TWh (Reegle, 2013), the internal production was 302.1

TWh (International Energy Agency, 2015), the rest was imported.

The next table is a list of every resource used in Italy for electricity production, its input and output to the

grid, average general efficiency and share in the final production (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012) (International

Energy Agency, 2015).

Resource Input (TWh)

Output (TWh)

Efficiency (%)

Share (%)

Gas 286.3 152.7 53.3 50.6

Coal 124.2 44.4 35.8 14.7

Oil 46.9 21.7 46.3 7.2

Renewables 209.8 76.9 36.7 25.5

Others 6.2 2.1

TOTAL 667.2 302.1 45.3 1.0

In the specific the next table shows the production from renewable resources (International Energy Agency,

2015) (Gestore Servizi Energetici, 2011).

Resource Output (TWh)

Share (%)

Biomass (waste + solid + liquid) 7.4 9.6

Biogas 2.1 2.7

Geothermal 5.4 7.0

Hydro 51.1 66.4

PV 1.9 2.5

Wind 9.1 11.8

TOTAL 76.9 1.0

These data are slightly different from source to source, but generally the range of difference is less than

few TWh.

Most of the future scenarios expect an increasing in the energy consumption to sustain the economic

growth, but at the moment the Italian government is strongly active to achieve the European 2020

objectives and the Roadmap 2050 for a low‐carbon Europe (Italian Government, 2013), therefore it is very

likely a strong change in the future energy mix and foreseen consumptions.

2 Reportaims&briefsummaryThe report aim is to give an overview of the key elements of an energy policy for Italy and the related

problems. Therefore, every chapter will consider a singular issue and its implication. Obviously to

contemplate every single aspect of a country policy is very complex and difficult also for the institutions

concerned, thus this report could be considered as a list of general suggestions without certainty in the real

possibility of implementation and cost covering.

The policy proposed would be based on reducing fossil fuels dependency with a strong effort in energy

efficiency, renewable energy, and innovation. The bullet points are:

Simplify bureaucracy.

Improve gas distribution system and infrastructures, aiming for exports.

Convert the refining industry to bio‐fuels.

Develop the electric grid.

Improve energy efficiency.

Exploit all the available renewable resources, with attention to geothermal heating, solar thermal

electricity and heating, and photovoltaic.

Consider seriously the possibility of nuclear.

Export the know‐how in Italian traditional technology such as smart‐grids, geothermal, hydro and

concentrated solar power.

3 BureaucracyEvery policy maker in Italy has to face some key problems, the first of which is the administrative decision

process which involves two parliaments, 22 different regions and numerous provinces, and that creates a

strong and slow bureaucratic mechanism which has already discouraged some companies in bringing

investments in Italy (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012).

An example is the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import terminal project abandoned after 11 years and 250

million of Euros by British Gas because of the long permit granting process (Squires, 2012).

Therefore, probably the first point of a good policy should be a clarification and simplification of the law

structure required for decision making in the energy field.

4 FossilfuelsThe table 3 shows the 2010 situation of energy demand and it evidences a strong dependency on fossil

fuels (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012).

Resource End uses (TWh)

Non‐energy (TWh)

Total final consumption (TWh)

Share (%)

Coal 46.2 1.2 45.0 3.0

Gas 488.4 6.6 481.8 31.8

Oil 722.0 89.8 632.2 41.7

TOT fossil 1256.6 97.6 1159.0 76.4

Renewables 55.9 0.0 55.9 3.7

Electricity 302.0 0.0 302.0 19.9

TOT energy 1614.5 97.6 1516.9 100.0

Circa 76.4% of the total energy demand is covered by fossil fuels, of them only 142 TWh are produced in

Italy, the 12.2% (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012). This situation is dangerous considering the increasing demand

of reduction of emissions, the risks related to the supply which is from unstable countries and the

possibility of depletion (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012). Italy has reserves that amount to 700 Mtoe (8141.0

TWh), that considering the current internal production could cover more than 50 years (Italian

Government, 2013), in a long term perspective is therefore useless to increase the extraction plants, but is

more interesting preserve this resource as an emergency reservoir.

The general aim for every fossil fuel should be the reduction of consumption, which could be done with a

policy based on energy efficiency and exploitation of renewable energy resources.

Gas is the base of Italian supply due to a rapid transition from oil to liquefied natural gas (LNG) happened in

the recent decades, for this reason Italy has developed an advanced supply infrastructure (Cammi &

Assenelli, 2012). This network is a value for Italy that could be as a bridge between energy‐rich country

(Middle‐East and Africa) and the rest of Europe, therefore this position should probably be supported by an

expansion and integration of the existing grid, building new LNG terminals, pipelines and storage systems,

in order to create what is called Southern European Hub of gas (Italian Government, 2013).

Figure 2: “simple gas supply map” (Italian Government, 2013).

Gas, despite being more expensive, as advantage in comparison to the other fossil resources has a more

flexibility and high efficiency in cogeneration plants (in which Italy has already a good production, 69.4%)

and the possibility to be used as fuel for vehicles (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012), therefore, although the

necessity of a long term reduction, it should be used as an important resource in the transition to a low‐

emissions country, covering the volatility of renewable plants, and as an export product to other European

countries (Italian Government, 2013).

The oil consumption was strongly reduced, substituted by gas, this has created serious problems to the

good Italian refining industry (International Energy Agency, 2010). A return to oil consumption would be

counterproductive, because of new‐plants costs and efforts in emission reduction, therefore an interesting

solution could be the restructuration and conversion of refinery industry to develop bio‐fuels technology,

considering conversion of plants, storage facilities and distribution system (Italian Government, 2013).

Coal is slightly used in Italy and demand should be reduced in the future, but further development in

carbon sequestration system (CCS) are foreseen (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012). This technology would reduce

significantly CO2 emissions, but there are still some barriers, both technological and of public acceptance

(European Climate Foundation, 2010). Anyway, it is an important technology for the Italian long‐term

energy future, also for its application to gas plants, indeed Italy is already working on some projects and

future investment in research should be considered (International Energy Agency, 2009).

5 EnergyefficiencyA very important point for every country in the European Union is the reduction of primary energy

consumption. After the approval in 2008 of the European Climate and Energy Package, known as 20‐20‐20,

Italy has signed a commitment in reducing energy consumption by 20% with respect to the projected levels,

which could be raised to 40% of the 2005 levels in 2030 (Italian Government, 2013).

The Italian Government is actually planning to do even better, saving 20Mtoe of primary energy yearly (15

Mtoe of final energy) and then consume about 24% less, this is translated in 4% less than 2010, reducing

the final energy consumption to 122.4 Mtoe (1423.7 TWh) (Italian Government, 2013).

Figure 3: “Final energy consumption excluding non‐energy uses, Mtoe” (Italian Government, 2013).

This would prevent the emission of about 55 million tonnes of Carbon Dioxide annually and save about 8

billion of Euros every year in fossil fuel imports (Italian Government, 2013). The Italian Government (2013)

has estimated about 60 billion of Euros of investments in energy efficiency, 40% of them from public

instruments such as tax rebates, direct incentives and standards and legislative requirements.

The most important sector is transport, in which new regulations could force manufacturers in selling high‐

efficiency vehicles and support the electric vehicles market (Italian Government, 2013).

Electric vehicles could have a strong impact to reduce fossil fuels dependency and improve general

efficiency in a policy based on renewable energy, therefore it should be placed more importance in

informing people on real costs, a simple cost coverage calculation is shown in the next table:

£ difference with gasoline engine 10,000 (Carpages, 2015)

£/l 1.12 (prezzi benzina, 2015)

km/l 6.1 (Smart, 2015) Covering results

£/km 0.184 54464.3 km

average km/year 12000.0 (al Volante, 2010) 4.5 years

kwh/km 0.16 (Smart, 2015) 1014.3 £ for electricity

euro/kWh 0.16 (Autorità energia, 2015) 11014.3 TOT £ to cover

£/kWh 0.116 59988.6 km

£/km 0.019 5.0 years

The effort in promoting electric vehicles is paid only if the electricity is produced in an efficient way,

therefore it could be interesting to incentive buying a renewable home plant with the electric car.

In the construction sector interesting implementations could be tightening of primary energy requirements,

energy certifications and rewards to promote the upgrade of buildings to a higher energy‐efficiency class,

encouragement of high‐performance installations and incentives for the integration of renewable through

tax deductions, installation of new high‐efficiency cogeneration system, integration with centralised town

heating and renovation of existing plants (Italian Government, 2013). Similar investments could be done in

the Industrial and Service sector.

In the Italy’s National Energy Strategy (Italian Government, 2013) more specific and legal information on

the incentives could be found.

Figure 4: “Expected savings by end‐use sectors” (Italian Government, 2013).

6 GridA development required for any other improvement is the requalification and amplification of the electric

grid. At present, renewable generation is concentrated in the north due to an historical tradition in

hydropower generation, therefore the grid in these regions is mature enough (Lanati & Gelmini, 2011), but

the largest demand for additional capacity is mostly in the southern regions and islands where renewable

resources are concentrated and where the grid infrastructure is traditionally weak (Reegle, 2013).

Figure 5: “Analysis of constraints in the Italian south area” (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012).

Therefore the transmission and distribution system have to be improved to avoid bottleneck and facilitate

the power flows between North and South (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012), also with a view to the possible

future connections with the other European countries and North Africa foreseen by the Roadmap 2050 to

create a low‐carbon Europe (European Climate Foundation, 2010).

Figure 6: “Capacity exchange (GW), model results of Monday Jan 16, 03.00 CET” (European Climate Foundation, 2010).

This work of enforcement could be the occasion to develop a cutting edge Italian smart grid, an automatic

and monitored distribution network, that encourage an easier distributed energy generation and control of

renewable resource, field in which Italy is already advanced with the smart metering program started by

Enel in 2001 (Scott, 2009).

This should be supported by the installation of energy storage systems, both pumped hydro system

(including small‐scale) and battery storage systems (Italian Government, 2013) to give an adequate support

to the volatility of renewable energy resources, which already have priority accestoin the grid (Binda Zane,

2014).

7 GeothermalGeothermal power has already a substantial contribution to the renewable energy supply in Italy,

compared to other countries, with about 1.8% of the total electricity production and 7% of total renewable

energy production in 2010 (Gestore Servizi Energetici, 2011). But the Italian geothermal potential is still

huge, with high‐temperature resources (>150°C) concentrated in the Tuscan‐Latium‐Campanian pre‐

Apennine belt and in some of the Tyrrhenian volcanic islands, and medium‐to‐low temperature resources

(<150°C) in more than half of the territory (Buonasorte, et al., 2007).

Figure 7: “Geothermal ranking of the Italian territory” (Buonasorte, et al., 2007).

The high‐temperature territories have already attracted public and private investments allowing the

creation of a strong production site in Tuscany (Buonasorte, et al., 2007), but the recent developments

have opened new ways to product electricity from the earth heat even at low temperature (100°C) through

the Enhanced Geothermal System(EGS), in which water is injected in more dry subsurface rocks, and

through geothermal Combined Heat and Power (CHP) (European Climate Foundation, 2010). Thus,

considering further investments in modernisation of old plants, drilling for new wells and application of

EGS, the electrical production is foreseen to reach 3539 ktoe (14.0 TWh) by 2030 (Winkel, et al., 2011).

Probably more effective could be the use of geothermal energy for heating, considering the large amount

of territory potentially available for this technology, which required medium‐to‐low temperatures and

which have regrettably remained in the background since now, except for few rare cases (Buonasorte, et

al., 2007). The construction of new district heating networks could raise the energy production from the

238 ktoe (2.8 TWh) of 2009 to 13263 ktoe (154.2 TWh) in 2030 (Winkel, et al., 2011).

To do so, the first step is simplifying the procedure to obtain new mining leases for exploration projects

(Cappetti & Cappetelli, 2005) and educate the public to the real dangers of geothermal (emission of suflides

and other substances and potential earth movements) and the benefits to reduce the public resistance.

An important point of the policy on geothermal sources could be also the investments in research and

development in a technology that need to be used and fully exploited by other European countries

considering the roadmap planned by the EU and in which the Italy has a strong and traditional background.

In this way Italy could attract foreign investments and export technology and know‐how.

8 HydropowerItaly has a long term tradition in hydroelectricity, started in the late 19th century because of the lack of

fossil resources, in 1885 Italy was one of the first countries to transmit hydroelectricity to a large urban

centre, from Tivoli to Rome (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2015). Nowadays water energy is for sure the most

important national energy source in Italy and the principal alternative to fossil fuel (Reegle, 2013), indeed

the 2010 production was 54.4 TWh (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012), 18% of the total electricity generation. Of

this, 94% (51.1 TWh) are proper renewable power plant, the remaining 6% (3.3 TWh) are produced by

pumped station, which often are powered by thermic power plant and thus could not be considered part of

the renewable contribution (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012).

Big plants (>10MW) cover 78% of the total, but almost every available site has been exploited (Cammi &

Assenelli, 2012), therefore the grow with this technology is limited: 3539 (41.2 TWh) in 2030 (Winkel, et al.,

2011).

Other possibilities of development are in the small hydroelectric, up to 10 MW. In 2010 the production of

this kind of plants was 11.0 TWh (United Nations Industrial Development Organisation, 2013), by 2020 it is

foreseen the possibility to grow to 12.1 TWh and with a further future potential of 8.9 TWh (European

Small Hydropower Asociation, 2012). But to do so, some difficulties have to be overcome: lack of territorial

planning, legislative equity between big and small plants which slow down the procedures also for the small

ones, administrative procedure complex and slow (Plaform Water Management in the Alps, 2011).

Another interesting technology in which invest is the pumped‐hydro mechanism that allow electricity to be

stored with low cost production and high efficiency (70‐75%), it is becoming more and more important in

connection with volatile renewable plants because it could regulate the power available on the grid and

therefore it is fundamental to realize a smart grid (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012).

As for the geothermal technology, it is important for Italy to maintain investments in R&D, considering the

European interest in water resource and therefore the possibility to export products to other countries that

have to exploit deeper their resources and also considering further development in the low‐head turbines

and hydro‐pump plants (European Renewable Energy Council, 2008).

9 SolarOne of the stereotypes of Italy is that it is a sunny and warm country, the reality should not be so far from

this considering the huge Italian potential in solar power compared to the rest of Europe.

Three main different technologies are used at the moment to catch the power of the sun: photovoltaic

panels (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP) and solar thermal power. All of these technologies are strongly

growing in the past few years and development is still proceeding, new materials and processes are

decreasing costs and improving efficiencies (European Renewable Energy Council, 2008).

Figure 8: “Europe solar irradiation map” (SolarGIS, 2015).

The PV situation in Italy is changing very fast, from 1.9 TWh in 2010 to 10.73 TWh in 2011 (Reegle, 2013) ,

this progress is far faster than planned, that amount of energy was expected to be reached in 2020 (Winkel,

et al., 2011), probably because of incentives not well planned and paid by end‐users (Cammi & Assenelli,

2012). Anyway the potential is still far from being fully covered, in 2030 Italy is expected to reach 4208 ktoe

(49.0 TWh) (Winkel, et al., 2011), this gives Italy a fundamental role in the future EU energy scenario, with

20% of the total solar photovoltaic production (European Climate Foundation, 2010).

Barriers of this technology are the limited supply of silicon required in the manufacturing; the strong

intermittency that requires an adequate smart grid; the costs, indeed most of the plants requires incentives

to be economically available (European Climate Foundation, 2010). The Italian manufacturing situation is

restricted to few small producers in comparison to China and Germany (Wikipedia, 2015), but the research

to improve technology is still growing and with lots of challenges (European Renewable Energy Council,

2008), therefore even if probably it would be difficult to reach the competitors level it would be important

to maintain a good internal production due to the national interest in this technology.

A new technology, which is not completely exploited, is solar thermal electricity, this is a resource more

predictable and that could be coupled with thermal storage or hybridization (with gas or biomass), proving

more stability (European Renewable Energy Council, 2008). Predictions are very positive and see Italian

production reaching 4296 ktoe (50.0 TWh) in 2030 (Winkel, et al., 2011). Italy is one of the leaders in this

technology, but the current situation is still restricted to few projects (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012), but the

effort in R&D should be continuous to overcome the still high technical barriers of this resource (European

Climate Foundation, 2010) and to give an advanced position to Italy in the future production of these

plants.

An old technology which is not always given the right importance is solar thermal, this could have a strong

effect on the heating industry and new innovations are still in development, such as solar assisted cooling,

solar industrial process heat, solar desalination and heat storages (European Renewable Energy Council,

2008). The 2010 Italian production is almost inexistent, but the predictions are excellent with 6121 ktoe

(71.2 TWh) in 2030 (Winkel, et al., 2011). Therefore more investments in this technology should be

considered.

10 WindAnother important energy resource is wind, which is strongly located in the south, particularly on the coast

and on the Apennine (Reegle, 2013).

Figure 9: “Estimated yearly normalised potential for wind electricity production in 2005 in the Italian region (kWh/kW)” (Monforti, et al., 2014).

In 2010 wind electricity production was 9.1 TWh, most of which generated by wind farms (>10MW), but

great attention is given to small plants with smaller capacity than 1 MW that are growing fast (Cammi &

Assenelli, 2012). The wind on‐shore is predicted to reach 2756 ktoe (32.0 TWh) in 2030, but also interesting

are the off‐shore applications that are going to grow till 738 ktoe (8.6 TWh) by 2030 (Winkel, et al.,

2011).Even if European northern countries have more resources, Italy should not be underestimate, indeed

the Italian contribution in wind on‐shore power generation in Europe is predicted to be 9% in 2050

(European Climate Foundation, 2010).

The key barriers are technical issues related to the installation off‐shore, necessity of financial supports,

smart grid requirement due to the oscillations in energy production and public acceptance issue associated

with visual impact, noise and wildlife habitat concerns (European Climate Foundation, 2010).

11 BioenergyThe bioenergy is in general every form of energy produced by biodegradable products, so there are

different resources included in this macro‐group(Cammi & Assenelli, 2012).

Biogas is a well‐established technology with a high energy output per hectare, used to produce electricity

or (refined to methane) in natural gas grids or as a transportation fuel (European Renewable Energy

Council, 2008). The most used source of biogas in Italy are landfills and it is mainly used to produce

electricity, 2.1 TWh in 2010, 29.4% of which is produced in CHP plants (Scarlat, et al., 2013). The future

predicted available production is 1082 ktoe (12.6 TWh) in 2030 (Winkel, et al., 2011).

Other technologies to produce bio‐electricity are direct burning of waste and of biomass. Both of those are

really competitive if associated to a district heating system in a combined heat and power plant (CHP)

(European Renewable Energy Council, 2008). A good Italian example is the Brescia’s waste‐to‐energy plant,

operating since 1998 and awarded with the Industry Award by the Columbia University in 2006 (a2a, 2014).

Bio‐waste electricity production in 2009 was 139 ktoe (1.6 TWh) and it will reach 315 ktoe (3.7 TWh) in

2030, biomass electricity was 243 ktoe (2.8 TWh) in 2009 and it is expected to grow to 1490 ktoe (17.3

TWh) in 2030 (Winkel, et al., 2011).

Biomasses are an important resource for heating, both in large scale associated, with cogeneration plants

and district heating system, both in small scale, field in which Italy is already a big market, due to the strong

use of pellets for home heating (Scarlat, et al., 2013). Biomass heating plants in grid have produced 164

ktoe (1.9 TWh) in 2009 and they will grow to 1896 ktoe (22.0 TWh) in 2030; while biomass heating off‐grid

had already a good production of 2498 (29.1 TWh) in 2009, but anyway it will probably increase to 3301

ktoe (38.4 TWh) in 2030 (Winkel, et al., 2011).

The last kind of bioenergy are biofuels, mainly bioethanol and biodiesel. Italy has a production capacity of

2.4 million t/year of biofuels, third in Europe after Germany and France (Scarlat, et al., 2013). The major

part is used in transport (an increasing but still small quantity is used for electricity generation and heating

plants), where it provides 61 PJ (16.9 TWh) in 2010, of which 55PJ from biodiesel and 6PJ from bioethanol

(Scarlat, et al., 2013). The EU allows 5% to 7% blends in diesel for normal cars and 10% of bioethanol in

petrol, but with some engine modifications even 100% is available (European Renewable Energy Council,

2008). The foreseen development of available Italian production is 2952 ktoe (34.3 TWh) in 2030 (Winkel,

et al., 2011).

At the moment, the raw materials used in biofuels production are mainly imported and in the future

bioenergy will be based on waste and residues from agricultural production and food industry (Scarlat, et

al., 2013), it is therefore important to invest in the R&D in these fields to avoid dependency on foreign

countries and to maintain the good position acquired in the oil refining field.

One of the most important advantage of these technologies is that they are all CO2 neutral, it is possible to

consider that all the carbon emissions are reabsorbed from atmosphere during the plants growing

(European Renewable Energy Council, 2008). But there are some key barriers such as the supply

infrastructure to be completely organised, the necessity to foreign supply to cover the future demand and

the public acceptance due to the competition with food farms (European Climate Foundation, 2010).

12 NuclearNuclear power is very important to supply the world demand of energy, but Italy is the only country of G8

without it (International Energy Agency, 2009). Nuclear programme was abandoned in 1987 on the decision

of a referendum after Chernobyl disaster (International Energy Agency, 2009) and the government’s

decision of starting again was stopped as well by another referendum in 2011 after Fukushima incident

(Italian Government, 2013). Unfortunately all these decision were taken without a debate on strength and

weaknesses of nuclear power, therefore a first step of a good policy would be inform the population and

promote a real useful debate (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012).

Although the strong issues raised by this technology are very important and of difficult solution, such as

waste storage, hidden costs, decommission and incidents, it should be taken in serious consideration,

bearing in mind that the renewables in a middle‐long term could not cover all the energy demand, that

being too dependent on foreign supplies is obviously risky and unpredictable and that nuclear is probably

far more environment friendly than the other fossil fuels (Cammi & Assenelli, 2012).

The current most advanced generation of plants is the third, these could produce 1.6 GW (Heikinheimo,

2009), that are circa 14.0 TWh/year. Very interesting is the possibility to build cogeneration plants to use

the heat produced, 4.3 GW (circa 37.0 TWh) (Heikinheimo, 2009).

A problematical issue in Italy could be find the right locations for these plants, due to the high earthquakes

frequency and tsunami risk. Considering the following maps better places could be the island Sardinia,

Apulia in the southeast, and the North.

Figure 10: Italian earthquakes risk map (Understanding Italy, 2003)

Figure 11: Tsunamis in Italy from 79AD to today (Scienza Giovane, 2006)

13 Conclusions&possibleresultscenariosAs seen, the Italian potential in renewable energy is good, but in the middle‐term future is still not enough

to cover the demand. The effort in energy saving could bring a reduction of total final consumption (TFC) to

1423.7 in 2020, it is reasonable ,in order to be in a more safe calculation, to not consider further reduction

and use the same amount of energy for the 2030 scenario.

In the following table the available renewable potentials in 2030 are recapitulated:

Resource Output (TWh) % of TOT RES

Electricity

Biomass 21.0 8.6%

Biogas 12.6 5.1%

Geothermal 14.0 5.7%

Hydro + Wave 57.6 23.5%

PV + CSP 98.9 40.4%

Wind 40.6 16.6%

TOTAL 244.8 100.0%

Heating

Biomass 60.4 21.1%

Solar 71.2 24.9%

Geothermal 154.2 54.0%

TOTAL 285.9 100.0%

Transport Biofuel 34.3

Considering the savings in different sectors and the use of renewable this could be an available scenario:

2030 prediction with savings

Share 2010 (%)

TFC 2010 (TWh)

Saves (%)

TOT saves (TWh)

TFC 2030 (TWh)

Share 2030 (%)

RES (%)

Electricity 23.0% 341.0 24.0% 14.2 326.9 23.0% 74.9%

Heat 45.0% 667.3 40.0% 23.6 643.6 45.2% 44.4%

Transport 32.0% 474.5 36.0% 21.3 453.2 31.8% 7.6%

TOT 100.0% 1482.8 100.0% 59.1 1423.7 100.0%

It should be considered that great emphasis will be placed on electricity, which could reach 36‐39% of final

consumptions (Italian Government, 2013), due also to a greater use of electric vehicles (25% of the total

vehicles) (Lanati & Gelmini, 2011). Therefore the scenario should be modified:

2030 prediction with electric vehicles

Share 2030 (%) TFC 2030 (TWh) % RES Fossil (TWh)

EV% 25.0% Electricity 30.9% 440.2 55.6% 195.4

Energy EV 113.3 Heating 45.2% 643.6 44.4% 357.8

Transport 23.9% 339.9 10.1% 305.6

TOT 100.0% 1423.7 858.8

2030 prediction with 36% share of electricity

Share 2030 (%) TFC 2030 (TWh) % RES Fossil (TWh)

Electricity 36.0% Electricity 36.0% 512.5 47.8% 267.8

Heating 40.1% 571.3 50.0% 285.4

Transport 23.9% 339.9 10.1% 305.6

TOT 100.0% 1423.7 858.8

Finally, it could be contemplated a nuclear scenario:

2030 prediction with nuclear

MW TWh TOT (TWh) TFC 2030 (TWh) % RES Fossil (TWh)

Nucl. elect. 1600.0 14.0 140.2 Electricity 512.5 47.8% 127.6

Nucl. heat 2150.0 18.8 188.3 Heating 571.3 50.0% 97.1

n° of plants 10 Transport 339.9 10.1% 305.6

TOT 1423.7 530.3

The use of nuclear energy would have a strong effect on fossil demand:

2010 2030 2030 nuclear

% fossil 82.7% 60.3% 37.2%

Fossil (TWh) 1226.3 858.8 530.3

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