energy prices, power, and trade2011-q1 2012-q1 2013-q1 2014-q1 2015-q1 2016-q1 2017-q1 implied stock...
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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
for
The Energy Council
March 5, 2016 | Washington, D.C.
by
Adam Sieminski, Administrator
U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Energy Markets Update
2 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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$/b
Continued robust supply and increasingly weak economic demand
continue to pressure crude prices downward
Source: EIA, Bloomberg
3 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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$/MMbtu billion cubic feet
Resilient production and a warm winter have contributed downward
pressure on U.S. natural gas prices
Source: EIA
4 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5Henry Hub futures price (left axis)
Current storage minus 5-year average (right axis)
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Forecast
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1 2017-Q1
Implied stock change and balance (right axis)
World production (left axis)
World consumption (left axis)
world supply and demand
million barrels per day
implied stock change
million barrels per day
Global oil inventories are forecast to continue building into 2017
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2016
5 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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Crude and products stocks are expected to remain high compared
to demand in OECD countries
Note: Colored band around days of supply of crude oil and other liquids stocks represents the range between the minimum and maximum from
Jan. 2011 - Dec. 2015.
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2016
OECD Commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids
Days of supply
6 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
Forecast
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017
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Forecast
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Change in U.S. consumption (right axis)
Change in China consumption (right axis)
Change in other consumption (right axis)
Total world consumption (left axis)
World liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day annual change (mmb/d)
EIA forecasts global liquids consumption growth at 1.3 million b/d in
2016 and 1.5 million b/d in 2017
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2016
7 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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GDP growth in non-OECD countries
annual expectations by date of forecast
Non-OECD economic growth has been lower than expectations
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook
8 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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EIA expects WTI oil prices to remain low compared with recent
history, but the market-implied confidence band is very wide
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2016
WTI price
dollars per barrel
9 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Historical Spot Price
STEO Forecast
NYMEX Futures Price
Current 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval
June 2014 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval
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U.S. crude oil price spreads suggest on-land storage is becoming
more expensive
Source: Bloomberg
Crude oil 1st-2nd month spreads
$/b, 5-day moving average
10 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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OPEC drives production growth as North American and other
non-OPEC production declines
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2016
World crude oil and liquid fuels production growth
million barrels per day
11 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2015 2016 2017
OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America North Sea Other Non-OPEC
Forecast
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-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016
monthly percent change
three month rolling average
The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
Production growth in top crude producing regions (Permian, Bakken,
Niobrara, and Eagle Ford) reverses in early 2015
Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report, February 2016
12
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Oil company asset write-downs
Billion 2015$
Oil companies have written down almost $200 billion worth of assets
in the past year
Source: EIA, Evaluate Energy
13 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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Total nonfarm payrolls monthly percent change
three month moving average
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
Employment growth in energy-producing states has slowed compared
with other states since the downturn in prices
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
Jan-02 Apr-03 Jul-04 Oct-05 Jan-07 Apr-08 Jul-09 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-13 Jul-14 Oct-15
Total nonfarm payrolls in CO, ND, PA, TX, WV, LA, MT, NM, OH, UT, WY, OK
Total nonfarm payrolls in all other states
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billion cubic feet per day
The U.S. is expected to become a LNG net exporter later this year;
increased pipeline exports to Mexico reduce pipeline net imports
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2016
15 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Sep
-16
Nov-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov-1
7
LNG Net imports
Pipeline net imports
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$/MWh
Natural gas is increasingly competitive with coal in the eastern United
States
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Prices compared using average energy content and efficiency rates
16 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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thousand megawatthours per day
This has led to some months with higher generation from natural gas,
which is expected to remain close with coal throughout 2017
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2016
17 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000D
ec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Sep
-12
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Sep
-13
Dec-1
3
Ma
r-14
Ju
n-1
4
Sep
-14
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
Sep
-15
Dec-1
5
Ma
r-16
Ju
n-1
6
Sep
-16
Dec-1
6
Ma
r-17
Ju
n-1
7
Sep
-17
Dec-1
7
Electric Power Sector Generation from Natural Gas
Electric Power Sector Generation from Coal
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U.S. electricity net generation
trillion kilowatthours
Renewables and natural gas together account for 66% of generation in
2040 while coal’s share falls to 18%
Source: EIA current thinking; preliminary results subject to change
18 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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New EIA features and tools
19 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
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New natural gas storage regions
Source: EIA, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
20 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
Consuming
West Consuming
East
Producing
old regions
Pacific
Mountain
Midwest
East
South
Central
new regions
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Oklahoma crude oil production
thousand barrels per day
EIA improves monthly reporting of crude oil production
Source: EIA and data from the Oklahoma Tax Commission and Corporation Commission, as compiled by DrillingInfo
21 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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A redesigned U.S. oil and natural gas production page provides
interactive graphics, state tables, and more
The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016 22
Available to the public:
- Interactive graphics
- Monthly estimates of crude oil and natural gas by state
- Comparisons with prior months and with prior estimation
methods
- Downloadable historical data
- Statistical measures of errors for each estimate
- Methodology report
- Links to other EIA data and analyses
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/
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EIA and DOE collaborating with Mexico and Canada to coordinate
energy information and analysis
23 The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016
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For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1
24
The Energy Council | Energy Prices, Power, and Trade
March 5, 2016