energy security through dialogue - ief · rum ief 14th iies conference, 18 january 2010, tehran...

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WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA 14TH IIES CONFERENCE, 18 JANUARY 2010, TEHRAN

Noé van Hulst

Secretary General

International Energy Forum (IEF)

Energy Security Through Dialogue

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Main Global Energy Trends The IEF Rome Consensus…

World Energy Demand Grows

Significantly

Fossil Fuels Dominate the

Energy Mix

Increasing Interdependence

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RankCountry Reserves (Gbbl) Production (Mbd)

World 1258.0 81.8

1 Saudi Arabia 264.1 10.8

2 Iran 137.6 4.3

3 Iraq 115.0 2.4

(Reserves at end 2008, Production for 2008)

Reserves 754.1 Gbbl 60 %

Production 26.2 Mbd 32%

Volume ShareMiddle East

Oil Reserves & Production Middle East

BP Statistical Review

RankImports from the

Middle EastVolume (Mbd) Share

1 Asia 13.3 63 %

2 Europe 2.6 19 %

3 USA 2.4 19 %

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Gas Reserves & Production Middle East(Reserves at end 2008 – Production for 2008)

Rank Country Reserves (tcm) Production (bcm)

World 185.0 3065.6

1 Russia 43.3 601.7

2 Iran 29.6 116.3

3 Qatar 25.5 76.6

Reserves 75.9 tcm 41 %

Production 381.1 bcm 12 %

Volume Share (%)Middle East

BP Statistical Review

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IEF covers key consuming & producing countries including those outside IEA and OPEC

More than 90% of Global Oil & Gas Supply and Demand…

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How?

High-level platforms involving governments and industry

Practical ways to improve:

•Market transparency in oil & gas

• Investment conditions

• Sustainability

What?

Enhance and deepen global consumer-producer dialogue

Promote more stable and transparent energy markets

Mission of IEF

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Key Results from 11th

IEF – Rome, April 2008

Input to 12th

IEF Ministerial in Mexico, 29 – 31 March 2010

Assess Extension to Natural Gas

(Fall 2009)

7th

JODI Conference

(Jun 2009)

JODI Training Workshops

(Incl. Caspian Nov 2009)

Unpacking Uncertainties

Report (2009-2010)

Biofuels Assessment

Report (Q4 2009)

Expert Group Report on Strengthening IEF Dialogue & Reducing Volatility (Q4 2009)

1st

NOC - IOC Forum 1st

IEF – IGU Ministerial IEF / IFP Technology

(Mar 2009) Gas Forum (Nov 2008) Symposium (Dec 2008)

3rd

Asian Ministerial Energy 1st

CCS Symposium

Roundtable (Sep 2009)

(Apr 2009)

Human Resources Energy Poverty Symposium

Symposium (Apr 2009) (Dec 2009)

2nd

NOC – IOC Forum 2nd

IEF - IGU Gas Forum 2nd

CCS Symposium

(2011) (Nov 2010) (Jun 2010)

Investment Transparency Sustainability

Platforms

for

Dialogue

Research

&

Analysis

Data Transparency (JODI)

Assess Extension to

Annual Data

(Fall 2009)

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• Gas markets globalizing through LNG

• Encourage cross-investment, IOC - NOC co-operation, R&D

• Consider Natural Gas Data Initiative for transparency

• Strengthen global gas dialogue: 2nd IEF/IGU Ministerial Gas Forum – Qatar November 2010

1st IEF - IGU Ministerial Gas ForumNovember 2008

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• Large technological potential in lifting recovery rates

• CCS/EOR double-win option

• CCS promising but obstacles must be tackled ASAP

• Dialogue in IEF to help harvest CCS potential

IEF - IFP SymposiumDecember 2008

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• Maintain investment: almost $500 billion per annum needed in oil & gas up to 2030

• Learn from long-term successful NOC-IOC partnerships (share skills, develop local infrastructure)

• Encourage cross-investment: horizontal and vertical NOC-IOC partnerships

• 2nd NOC-IOC Forum hosted by TOTAL (2011)

1st NOC – IOC ForumMarch 2009

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• 50% of skilled workforce to retire in next 10 years

• Maintain investment in HR, training and R&D

• Need to improve perception/image of Industry

• General public, potential working population, politicians

• Create “Technical Heroes”

• Actively build trust and belief in sustainability

HR Crunch – SymposiumApril 2009

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• CCS Key Technology: accelerate development & deployment

• CCS/ EOR: catalyst & stepping stone

• Tackle barriers: high costs, legal & regulatory frameworks, public acceptance etc…

• More R&D, demonstration projects, effective carbon price

• CCS in CDM & future financial mechanisms

1st CCS SymposiumSeptember 2009

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• 2.5 billion people without modern fuels; 1.5 billion people have no electricity

• Access to energy key for development / MDGs

• Huge investment gap – programmes underfunded

• New impetus needed for “Energy for the Poor”

Energy Poverty SymposiumDecember 2009

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• CCS II Symposium

• Report - Unpacking Uncertainty

• Report – Biofuels Assessment

• Report – Expert Group recommendations for strengthening IEF Dialogue & reducing market volatility

Upcoming IEF Events & Reports

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• Follow-up on London Energy Meeting (December 2008)

• High-Level Steering Group to oversee work of Expert Group Algeria, France, Germany, Japan, Kuwait, Mexico, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (Chair), UK (co-chair), USA

• Independent Expert Group – key questions:• How to enhance architecture of the Producer-Consumer Dialogue through the IEF?

• How to reduce energy market volatility?

• Strongly supported by G8 / G20

• Recommendations discussed at IEF Ministerial Cancun, Mexico 29-31 March 2010

Work of Expert Group

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GlobalParticipation of 98 countries

Number of Smiley Faces ☺2009Jan-Jun

2008Jan-Jun

Improvement (%)2009 Jan-Jun/2008 Jan-Jun

Submission ☺ 83 75 10.7%

Timeliness ☺ 58 53 9.4%

Completeness☺ 68 60 13.3%Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative

JODI performance in 2009 improving

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IEF Secretariat’s Wish List

All countries present three smiley JODI-faces before year-end 2009

Submit annual data upon request to help build new investment database

…”Actions achieve more than words” (Euripides)

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• More Oil & Gas Needed Even With Higher Efficiency

• Growing Interdependence of Consumers & Producers

• Achieve Tangible Results in Improving Investment, Transparency & Sustainability towards Mexico 2010

• IEF’s Role Growing in Global Energy Dialogue

Key Messages

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energy security through dialogue - ief · rum ief 14th iies conference, 18 january 2010, tehran...

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