energy systems and the planetary boundaries: extending the...

Energy systems and the planetary boundaries: extending the capabilities of energy systems models

Júlia Seixas [email protected]

CENSE - FCT-NOVA NOVA Faculty of Science and Technology

Planetary Boundaries

How energy systems relate with the

planetary boundaries?

Current limitations of energy systems

models

Advancing on energy system modeling

AGENDA

Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

Increasing rates of change in human activity since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

Global-scale changes in the Earth System as a result of the dramatic increase in human activity

(Rockstrom, 2015)

Anthropocene! Paul Crutzen

11 700 years … Holocene

Several significant Earth system processes are now driven by human consumption

and production.

***

Have human beings permanently changed the planet?

Rockstrom et al, 2009, Nature Steffen et. al. 2015. Science Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden

Design: Globaïa

(2011/1750)

(2013)

Changes in population abundance as a result of human impacts.


How energy systems relate with

the planetary boundaries?


models


AGENDA

Energy system: R

eso

urc

es (

DO

M, I

MP

)

Technologies Technologies

Energy

Energy En

ergy

Rockstrom et al, 2009, Nature Steffen et. al. 2015. Science Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden

Design: Globaïa

Energy – climate nexus:

Climate has been extensively considered by energy systems analysis, modeling and planning • CO2 and other greenhouse gases emissions intensity per fuel type and

technology

• Low carbon technologies have become explicit

• Carbon pricing / emissions cap limits the “resource” use (atmosphere)

• Linkages with macro-economy are established (social cost of carbon)

• Several tools linking energy systems and climate system

Direct impacts of energy systems on climate system at global level!

Energy - water nexus:

Water is needed in almost all energy generation processes.

• for cooling in most thermal power plants

• for hydropower generation

• for energy extraction and processing (coal, oil, and gas

extraction).

• for crops production for biofuels, through irrigation

• wind and photovoltaic have negligible impacts on water.

Water is only diverted and can be used downstream

Water is polluted

Water is mostly consumed.

Source: World Bank, 2013

Water scarcity is increasing • Today, about 2.8 billion people live in areas of high water stress

• By 2030, water use will increase by about 50 % and more than half the world population (approximately 5 billion people) will live in severe water stress affecting energy and food security (WWAP, 2012).

• By 2050, feeding a planet of 9 bi people will require a 60 % increase in agricultural production (FAO, 2012) and water use will increase.


Water scarcity will increase due to increase of energy services • Today 1.3 bi people worldwide still lack access to electricity (IEA, 2012). Closing

the energy gap has implications on water for fuel extraction, cooling water, and hydropower, and for expansion of renewable energy such as biofuels.

• By 2050: • economies like China, India, and Brazil will double their energy consumption

in the next 40 years. • Africa’s electricity generation will be seven times as high as it is today. • In Asia, primary energy production will almost double, and electricity

generation will more than triple


2010: Global water withdrawals for energy production: 583 bcm (15% of the world’s total water withdrawals); water consumption: 66 bcm. bcm: billion cubic meter 2035 Withdrawals increase by about 20%; consumption rises by a more dramatic 85%.

IEA (2012). WEO, Water for Energy: Is energy becoming a thirstier resource? (Ch 17)

IEA (2015). Energy Technologies Perspectives.

+67% +48% +15%


“constraints on water can challenge the reliability of existing operations and the viability of proposed projects, imposing additional costs for necessary adaptive measures.” (IEA, 2012)

Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants, 2025 (WRI, 2011)


IEA (2012). WEO, Water for Energy: Is energy becoming a thirstier resource? (Ch 17)

2010: 3364 GWh

2050: 5141 GWh Sce 4: HRES

Power production in EU28 [+53%]

Source: Eurostat Source: Energy Roadmap 2050 Impact

Assessment Part 2 including Part II of Annex 1 'Scenarios - assumptions and results' and Annex 2 'Report on Stakeholders scenarios'

[SEC(2011)1565/2]

Energy – water nexus: EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Coal

Gas Nuclear

Hydro Wind Solar

Biomass & waste

Water for power production in EU28 ≈ -

60%

2010: 10 bcm

2050: 4 bcm

Sce. 4: HRES

EU Energy Roadmap 2050 Energy - water nexus:

(rough estimates; water for bioenergy cultivation not considered)

Energy - land nexus:

Ecosystem services (forestry,

livestock other ecological areas)

LAND

Direct impacts of energy systems on land systems and resources at local to regional level but with eventual impacts at global level!

Land-use intensity for energy production/conservation techniques.

McDonald RI, Fargione J, Kiesecker J, Miller WM, Powell J (2009) Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the United States of America. PLoS ONE 4(8): e6802. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0006802 http://127.0.0.1:8081/plosone/article?id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0006802


http://127.0.0.1:8081/plosone/article?id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0006802

Land Requirements of Alternative Energy Sources

Andrews, Cl. J.; Dewey-Mattia, L.; Schechtman, J. M.; and Mayr, M. (2011) "Alternative Energy Sources and Land Use". Climate Change and Land Policies, eds. Ingram, Gregory K. and Yu-Hung Hong. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.


Area for power production in EU28 X 3

Energy Roadmap 2050 Energy - land nexus:

2010: 133*103 km2

2050: 514 *103 km2 Sce. 4: HRES

10% of total EU area 30% of total utilized agriculture area!!!

(area for bioenergy cultivation not considered)

Energy - water - land nexus:

QUESTIONS:

• How much water resources become available for energy production, due

competition with other purposes? Recall climate change expectation scenarios

on water cycle (e.g. Mediterranean)

• How much land will be available (at what cost?) for land intensive renewables

production, in face of expected competition with food and livestock production?

• What will be the energy options for future decarbonization pathways if water

scarcity and land intensity will be taken into account?




Current limitations of energy

systems models


AGENDA

Typical Energy System Models:

18 global energy-economy and integrated assessment models (IAM) USA: GCAM, FARM, MERGE, Phoenix Canada: EC-IAM, TIAMWORLD, now used globally EU: IMACLIM, IMAGE,MESSAGE, POLES, REMIND, WITCH Japan: AIM-Enduse, BET, DNE21+, GRAPE India: GCAMIIM OECD: ENV-Linkages

EMF27 study: The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives

Climatic Change (2014) 123

• (Calvin et al, 2014) (Popp et al, 2014) GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE: linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules.

• (Sands et al, 2014) FARM global CGE model with particular focus on agriculture, forestry and energy sectors

• (van Vliet et al, 2014) IMAGE describe the dynamics of agriculture and natural vegetation, including potentials for biofuels under climate change

GCAM links modules of economy, energy system, agriculture and land-

use system, and climate

IMAGE linked submodels of energy system, agricultural economy and land use natural

vegetation and climate system

ReMIND represents the energy-economy-climate system and covers a wide range of bioenergy and

competing conversion technologies. MAgPIE model consists of a global dynamic vegetation, land use and

water balance model.

(Popp et al, Climatic Change, 123, 2014)

Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

Overall structure of the general structure of the energy system

Overall structure of the agriculture-land-use module

Energy modeling bottlenecks:

Modeling Scope:

• Energy models seeks optimization of energy systems costs to deliver energy services

stated exogenously

• Water planning and land use seeks simulation of resources availability to assess delivery

for multiple uses

Services projections:

• Energy services as a function of economic and demographic drivers

• Water availability as a function of weather data

• Precipitation levels and temperature data are primary drivers of water availability, and

they also directly affect the levels of energy services required for space heating and

cooling.

Resource availability:

• Energy models do not address total water availability and its dynamic nature or tradeoffs

among water uses (population, industry, agriculture).

• Water availability and variability only for hydropower production.

• Energy models assume land is available at no relevant cost;

Energy modeling bottlenecks:

Spatial detail:

• Energy models mainly apply to political boundaries (countries and regions)

• Water typically requires a high level of hydrologic detail and applies primarily to

watershed boundaries,

• Land use and land cover spread from landscape scales (1- 100,000 km2) to continental

and global scales

Temporal resolution:

• Energy models usually rely on sub-daily (hourly/peak and base load) time lags.

• Water variability on time usually above-daily (daily to season and year);

• Land use is more static (annual or decadal basis);





models


AGENDA

Energy Systems Models needs to advance:

to include endogenously: • Land use intensity (m2/GJ) per technology • Land use costs, taking local/regional cost of opportunity • Water consumption intensity (m3/GJ) per technology • Water costs, taking local/regional markets • CO2 emissions and costs (already a standard for direct emissions)

to include resources (water, land) costs in the optimization

objective function

to produce energy technological portfolios keeping resource sustainability

to prevent critical levels of resource depletion (at site) and anticipate resources constraint and respective investment

to contribute to realistic social costs of energy services

Energy Systems Models within IAMs, aiming : to include the feedbacks of their outcomes, namely on:

• Impact of increase of temperature in energy services demand, via impacts on radiative forcing of GHG emissions

• Impacts of climate change on resources availability (water, land and biomass) (at site) supporting energy systems functioning

• Impacts of trade-offs among sectors (energy security-food security-water security) competing for shared resources

• Impacts on macro-economy (GDP and jobs) from preventing /controlling resource depletion

Final remarks: 1 - Meeting human aspirations in an increasingly resource limited world and in the perspective of a changing climate requires that resources are used prudently and equitably, preventing to cross their boundaries; 2 - Energy systems and services have driven Earth systems and processes close to or beyond their safe boundaries; 3 - Some economic costs have been hidden in energy system models, and some shared resources have been assumed always available (e.g. water, land): dangerous assumption in view of expected energy-water-food demand and climate change impacts;

4 - There’s the need to advance on energy system modeling to deliver adequate knowledge for decision makers and investors.

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Júlia Seixas

[email protected]

energy systems and the planetary boundaries: extending the...

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