ensemble hydrological forecasting - ecmwf · st- mrc ott1 sf -mrc ott1 sp -mrc ott1 radar- ha mel 2...
TRANSCRIPT
Ensemble Hydrological Ensemble Hydrological ForecastingForecasting
Bob Moore and David Jones, CEH WallingfordClive Pierce, JCHMR (Met Office), Wallingford
OverviewOverview
Drought ManagementDrought Management
Flood ForecastingFlood ForecastingPresentPresentFuture?Future?
Thames surface water resource system
Drought management in the Thames Basin
•Historical rainfall ensembles
•Categorical probability rainfall forecast weighting
Risk assessment procedure for drought management
Risk assessment of reservoir storage shortfall and demand restrictions
Flood Forecasting
Rainfall sources:Radar: single site Radar: Gandolf Raingauge
HYRADRainfall displaysCatchment rainfall FFMS
Flood forecastsDecision support
Flood Warning
Dissemination Response
Weather radar, first alert and flood forecasting systems
First Alert:
Improved display of radar rainfall across scales; 0 to 6 hours, 1, 2, 5 km
HYRAD has been adopted as national standard by
Environment Agency across England & Wales
First alert warning products
12 hour ahead rainfall forecast from Mesoscale Model, Nimrod radar actual
and catchment hyetographUnified NWP Model grids:
global & mesoscale
12 km, 0 to 2 days
Flow Forecasting & Modelling Flow Forecasting & Modelling System (FFMS) DesignSystem (FFMS) Design
Telemetry interface
DATABASE Graphical user interface
Report generatorSHELL
KERNEL
MODELSCatchment rainfallRainfall-runoffChannel flowLakeUpdatingControl RulesWater Quality..
INFORMATION CONTROL
ALGORITHM
MODEL CALIBRATION
FACILITY
Telemetry DataRadar / Satellite / MesoscaleNWP model data
REAL-TIME OFF-LINE
PrinterFax
User
1-REGION-ALL
1-NONTIDAL-T
1-NONTIDAL-N
1-NONTIDAL
1-REGION-N
1-REGION-T
1-REGION
1-NONTID-ALL
QX-RIDNGM1
QL-KIRKNW1
QX-WOOLER1
QL-MORWCK1
QX-STAMFM1
QL-MITFRD1
QL-CHESLS1
QX-NABURN1
QL-DONCST1
QL-BEALWR1
QX-ELVING2
QX-TADCST1
QL-WALDEN1
QL-BOYNTN1
QL-SCARBH1
LU-CAWOOD1
LD-HULLTB1
QL-BYWELL1
QL-TEAMVL1
QL-CRAGHL1
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
RF-GOLDSC1 LU-WOOLER1QL-ROTHBY1
LU-STAMFM1
RF-DARRAS1
RF-WALLGN1
QL-SUNDBR1
QL-BURNHL1
QX-VIKING1
QX-ROTHHM1
QL-WOODHS1
QL-HADFLD1
QL-ADWICK1
QL-FLEETW1
QX-METHLY1
QL-FARRER1
QX-CASTLF1
LU-ELVING2QW-BUTTCR1
LU-TADCST1
QL-FLINTM1
RADAR-HAMEL7064
RFCST-HAMEL7064
BCKRN-VYORK
ST-LANGST3
RF-STHELM1
SF-LANGST3
SP-LANGST3
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-VYORK
RADAR-INGHM6005
RFCST-INGHM6005
BCKRN-WOLDS
ST-HGHMOW1
XR-HGHMOW1
SF-HGHMOW1
SP-HGHMOW1
EV-HGHMOW1
COMRN-WOLDS
RADAR-INGHM7033
RFCST-INGHM7033
BCKRN-MOORS
ST-KELDHD1
XR-KELDHD1
SF-KELDHD1
SP-KELDHD1
EV-KELDHD1
COMRN-MOORS
RF-BROWNH1
RF-RNDYMR1
C1-BARMBY1
C2-BARMBY1
LU-BUBWTH1
LU-BARMBY1
LD-BARMBY1
LU-BARMBY2
LU-SELBYB1
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LU-ULLESK1
LD-COCKBK1
LU-CARLTN1
LU-TEMPLE1
LU-HADDLE1
LU-RAWCLF1
LU-NEWBRG1
LD-WENTMS1
LU-JUBILB1
LU-STAINF1
LX-LONGSN1
LU-CARLTN2
LU-NABURN1
LU-ACASTS1
LU-FLEETP1
LX-BLACKT1
ASTRPRED-HL
STWSPRED-IM
LT-HULLTB1
QL-REAVHL1
QL-HAYDNB1
RF-FARNES1QL-WOOLSN1
QL-SHILMR1
QL-WITTNP1
LU-VIKING1QL-SKELTN1
QL-WHITTN1
QL-STAVLY1
LX-WHITTN1
RADAR-HAMEL7006
RFCST-HAMEL7006
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-REDMRF1
RF-DORE001
RF-LANGST2
RF-REDMRF1
SF-REDMRF1
SP-REDMRF1
COMRN-SPENN
QL-HIGHFD1
QX-BOLTNR1
LU-BOLTNR1
QL-BARNSL1
QL-ARMLEY1 LU-METHLY1
QX-WAKEFD1
RADAR-HAMEL7081
RFCST-HAMEL7081
ST-RINGST2
RF-FARNLY1
SF-RINGST2
SP-RINGST2
LU-CASTLF1
QL-BUTTCR1QX-KIRKHM1
QX-ARTHNG1
RADAR-HAMEL 43
RFCST-HAMEL 43
BCKAT-SPENN
SX-LANGST3
XT-WINGWR1
SW-LANGST3
SD-LANGST3
COMAT-SPENN
XE-WINGWR1
USERN-VYORK
SYNRN-VYORK
USEAT-VYORK
SYNAT-VYORK
COMAT-VYORK
RADAR-INGHM 38
RFCST-INGHM 38
BCKAT-WOLDS
SX-HGHMOW1XT-HGHMOW1
SW-HGHMOW1
SD-HGHMOW1
COMAT-WOLDS
XE-HGHMOW1
USERN-WOLDS
SYNRN-WOLDS
USEAT-WOLDS
SYNAT-WOLDS
RADAR-INGHM 40
RFCST-INGHM 40
BCKAT-MOORS
SX-KELDHD1
XT-KELDHD1
SW-KELDHD1
SD-KELDHD1
COMAT-MOORS
XE-KELDHD1
USERN-MOORS
SYNRN-MOORS
USEAT-MOORS
SYNAT-MOORS
ASTRPRED-BL
LU-BLACKT1
QL-UGLYDB1
QL-REDEBR1
QL-FEATHS1
RF-LINBGS1
QL-STANHP1
QL-BEDBRN1
QX-ALDWRK1
QX-SKIPBR1
QL-SHEEPB1
QX-HADYHL1
RADAR-INGHM7040
RFCST-INGHM7040
XR-WINGWR1
LU-WHITTN1
RADAR-HAMEL 15
RFCST-HAMEL 15 SX-REDMRF1
SW-REDMRF1
SD-REDMRF1
USERN-SPENN
SYNRN-SPENN
USEAT-SPENN
SYNAT-SPENN
RADAR-HAMEL7067
RFCST-HAMEL7067
RADAR-HAMEL7023
RFCST-HAMEL7023
RF-CANNON1
QX-COTTNL1
LU-WAKEFD1QX-DEWSBY1
RADAR-HAMEL 46
RFCST-HAMEL 46
SX-RINGST2
RF-RINGST1
SW-RINGST2
SD-RINGST2
LD-KIRKHM1
QX-MALTON1
LU-ARTHNG1
QX-POOLBR1
QX-OTLEY01
QL-ALSTON1
RF-BURNHP1
RF-KILLHP1
RF-ALLENH1
LU-ALDWRK1
QX-BORBRG1
QX-WESTWK2
QL-BATBRG1
QL-CRAKEH1
LU-SKIPBR1
QX-HUNSNG1
RADAR-HAMEL7052
RFCST-HAMEL7052
QX-DRONFD1
LU-HADYHL1
QX-CHESTF1
LU-CHESTF1
QX-HADYHL2
LU-COTTNL1
QX-STOCKB1
QL-KEIGHL1
LU-DEWSBY1
QX-HEATON1
QL-NORTHP1
LU-MALTON1
QX-MARISH1
QX-HOWEBR1 LU-OTLEY01
QL-ILKLEY1
QL-ADDGHM1
RF-ALSTON2
LU-WESTWK2
LX-BORBRG2
QL-KILGRM1
QL-RIPON01
QX-RICHBR1
QX-CATTER1
QX-MORTON1
LU-CATTER1
QX-RICHLW1
QL-LEEMNG1
QL-KIRBYW1
QX-KIRBYW1
LU-HUNSNG1
QL-BIRSTW1
QL-BURNBR1
RADAR-HAMEL7862
RFCST-HAMEL7862
LU-DRONFD1
RADAR-HAMEL7344
RFCST-HAMEL7344
LU-HADYHL2
LU-STOCKB1
QL-KILDWK1
RADAR-HAMEL7072
RFCST-HAMEL7072
ST-GORPLE2
RF-THRNMR1
SF-GORPLE2
SP-GORPLE2
EV-MALHMT1
LU-HEATON1QX-BRIGHS2
QL-COLNEB1 RADAR-HAMEL7074
RFCST-HAMEL7074
RF-HECKMD1
RADAR-INGHM7955
RFCST-INGHM7955
QL-WESTAY1
LU-HOWEBR1
QX-BUTTER1
QW-CROOKH1
QW-NESS001
QL-CHERRY1
QW-KIRKBY1
QW-NORMAN1
QL-GATEHS1
QW-INGSBR1
QX-BOLTAB1
QX-GRASTN1
QX-BAINBR1
RADAR-HAMEL7059
RFCST-HAMEL7059
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RF-SCARHS1
SF-SKPBTH1
SP-SKPBTH1
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COMRN-NPENN
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QX-GRINTN1
RADAR-INGHM7069
RFCST-INGHM7069
ST-OSMOTH1
RF-ESTCOW1
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SP-OSMOTH1
RF-OSMOTH1
QL-GOUTHW1
RADAR-HAMEL7051
RFCST-HAMEL7051
BCKRN-WPENN
RF-ECCUP01
COMRN-WPENN
RADAR-HAMEL7035
RFCST-HAMEL7035
RF-MALHMT1
RF-SKPBTH1
RADAR-HAMEL 44
RFCST-HAMEL 44
SX-GORPLE2
XT-MALHMT1
RF-GORPLE1
SW-GORPLE2
SD-GORPLE2
XE-MALHMT1
LU-BRIGHS2
QX-ELLAND1
QX-ICI0001
RADAR-INGHM7058
RFCST-INGHM7058
QL-CROOKH1
RF-EASTNS1
RF-CHURCH1
QX-HELMSL1
QL-NESS001
QW-BROADW1
RADAR-INGHM7054
RFCST-INGHM7054
RADAR-INGHM7042
RFCST-INGHM7042
QL-KIRKBY1
RADAR-INGHM7057
RFCST-INGHM7057
QL-NORMAN1
RADAR-INGHM7038
RFCST-INGHM7038
RADAR-INGHM7056
RFCST-INGHM7056
QL-INGSBR1
LU-GRASTN1
QX-KETTLW1
LU-BAINBR1
QL-LOWHSS1RADAR-HAMEL 25
RFCST-HAMEL 25
BCKAT-WPENN
SX-SKPBTH1
SW-SKPBTH1
SD-SKPBTH1
COMAT-WPENN
XE-LWRDUN1
USERN-NPENN
SYNRN-NPENN
USEAT-NPENN
SYNAT-NPENN
COMAT-NPENN
RADAR-INGHM7886
RFCST-INGHM7886
LU-GRINTN1
ST-ARKENG1
RF-ARKENG1
SF-ARKENG1
SP-ARKENG1 RADAR-INGHM 29
RFCST-INGHM 29 SX-OSMOTH1
SW-OSMOTH1
SD-OSMOTH1
USERN-WPENN
SYNRN-WPENN
USEAT-WPENN
SYNAT-WPENN
LU-ELLAND1QT-SOWRBY1
QX-CLDENE1
LU-ICI0001
QL-QUEENS1
RADAR-INGHM7055
RFCST-INGHM7055 QL-BROADW1
RADAR-HAMEL7900
RFCST-HAMEL7900
BCKRN-NWPEN
LU-KETTLW1
ST-MALHMT1
RF-TOWHLL1
SF-MALHMT1
SP-MALHMT1
COMRN-NWPEN
RADAR-HAMEL7047
RFCST-HAMEL7047
ST-MRCOTT1
SF-MRCOTT1
SP-MRCOTT1
RADAR-HAMEL 2
RFCST-HAMEL 2
BCKAT-NPENN
SX-ARKENG1
SW-ARKENG1
SD-ARKENG1
QX-SOWRBY1
LU-SOWRBY1
QL-RIPPND1
RADAR-HAMEL7845
RFCST-HAMEL7845
LU-CLDENE1RF-BACUP01
QX-HEBDBR1
RADAR-HAMEL7065
RFCST-HAMEL7065
RF-LUDHLL1
RADAR-HAMEL 36
RFCST-HAMEL 36
BCKAT-NWPEN
SX-MALHMT1
SW-MALHMT1
SD-MALHMT1
COMAT-NWPENUSERN-NWPEN
SYNRN-NWPEN
USEAT-NWPEN
SYNAT-NWPEN
RADAR-HAMEL 45
RFCST-HAMEL 45
SX-MRCOTT1
SW-MRCOTT1
SD-MRCOTT1
RADAR-HAMEL7068
RFCST-HAMEL7068
LU-HEBDBR1
QX-WALSDN1
QX-TODMDN1
RADAR-HAMEL7392
RFCST-HAMEL7392
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RADAR-HAMEL7931
RFCST-HAMEL7931
LU-TODMDN1
BCKRN-SPENN
RF-GORPLE1
COMRN-SPENN
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-GORPLE2
RF-GORPLE1
SF-GORPLE2
SP-GORPLE2
EV-MALHMT1
COMRN-SPENN
RF-BACUP01
BCKRN-SPENN
BCKAT-SPENN
COMRN-SPENN
COMAT-SPENN
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-SPENN
RF-RINGST1
EV-MALHMT1
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RF-GORPLE1
SF-GORPLE2
SP-GORPLE2
EV-MALHMT1
COMRN-SPENN
RF-BACUP01
XT-MALHMT1
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-RINGST2
SF-RINGST2
SP-RINGST2
COMRN-SPENN
XT-MALHMT1
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NWPEN
BCKAT-NWPEN
XT-MALHMT1
COMRN-NWPEN
COMAT-NWPEN
BCKRN-NWPEN
RF-TOWHLL1
EV-MALHMT1
COMRN-NWPEN
BCKRN-NPENN
RF-ARKENG1
EV-MALHMT1
COMRN-NPENN
XT-MALHMT1
BCKRN-MOORS
BCKAT-MOORS
XT-KELDHD1
COMRN-MOORS
COMAT-MOORS
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-MOORS
RF-OSMOTH1
COMRN-MOORS
BCKRN-NWPEN
RF-TOWHLL1
EV-MALHMT1
COMRN-NWPEN
RF-MALHMT1
BCKRN-WPENN
RF-MALHMT1
EV-MALHMT1
COMRN-WPENN
RF-SKPBTH1
BCKRN-MOORS
RF-EASTNS1
EV-KELDHD1
COMRN-MOORS
RF-CHURCH1
XR-KELDHD1
BCKRN-MOORS
ST-OSMOTH1
RF-CHURCH1
SF-OSMOTH1
SP-OSMOTH1
EV-KELDHD1
COMRN-MOORS
RF-OSMOTH1
RF-EASTNS1
BCKRN-WPENN
ST-SKPBTH1
SF-SKPBTH1
SP-SKPBTH1
COMRN-WPENN
ST-OSMOTH1
SF-OSMOTH1
SP-OSMOTH1
EV-LWRDUN1
RF-OSMOTH1
BCKRN-VYORK
ST-OSMOTH1
RF-ESTCOW1
SF-OSMOTH1
SP-OSMOTH1
EV-LWRDUN1
COMRN-VYORK
BCKRN-NPENN
ST-SKPBTH1
RF-SCARHS1
SF-SKPBTH1
SP-SKPBTH1
EV-LWRDUN1
COMRN-NPENN
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-RINGST2
SF-RINGST2
SP-RINGST2
EV-MALHMT1
COMRN-SPENN
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-GORPLE2
RF-THRNMR1
SF-GORPLE2
SP-GORPLE2
EV-MALHMT1
COMRN-SPENN
BCKRN-SPENN
BCKAT-SPENN
XT-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
COMAT-SPENN
BCKRN-MOORS
ST-KELDHD1
XR-KELDHD1
SF-KELDHD1
SP-KELDHD1
EV-KELDHD1
COMRN-MOORS
BCKRN-MOORS
ST-KELDHD1
XR-KELDHD1
RF-BROWNH1
SF-KELDHD1
SP-KELDHD1
EV-KELDHD1
RF-EASTNS1
COMRN-MOORS
BCKRN-MOORS
ST-KELDHD1
XR-KELDHD1
SF-KELDHD1
SP-KELDHD1
EV-KELDHD1
COMRN-MOORS
RF-EASTNS1
BCKRN-MOORS
ST-KELDHD1
XR-KELDHD1
RF-CHURCH1
SF-KELDHD1
SP-KELDHD1
EV-KELDHD1
RF-BROWNH1
COMRN-MOORS
BCKRN-MOORS
ST-KELDHD1
XR-KELDHD1
RF-CHURCH1
SF-KELDHD1
SP-KELDHD1
EV-KELDHD1
RF-EASTNS1
COMRN-MOORS
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
BCKRN-MOORS
ST-KELDHD1
XR-KELDHD1
SF-KELDHD1
SP-KELDHD1
EV-KELDHD1
COMRN-MOORS
RF-BROWNH1
BCKRN-SPENN
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-REDMRF1
XR-WINGWR1
SF-REDMRF1
SP-REDMRF1
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
RF-REDMRF1
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
BCKRN-SPENN
BCKAT-SPENN
XT-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
COMAT-SPENN
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-REDMRF1
SF-REDMRF1
SP-REDMRF1
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
XR-WINGWR1
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
XR-WINGWR1
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-REDMRF1
XR-WINGWR1
SF-REDMRF1
SP-REDMRF1
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
BCKRN-VYORK
ST-RINGST2
SF-RINGST2
SP-RINGST2
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-VYORK
BCKRN-SPENN
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-REDMRF1
RF-DORE001
SF-REDMRF1
SP-REDMRF1
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
BCKPE-YSINEXR-HGHMOW1
BCKRN-SPENN
ST-REDMRF1
RF-DORE001
RF-LANGST2
RF-REDMRF1
SF-REDMRF1
SP-REDMRF1
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-SPENN
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
RF-GOLDSC1
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
RF-DARRAS1
BCKPE-YSINE
BCKRN-NPENN
BCKRN-WOLDS
XR-HGHMOW1
COMRN-WOLDS
BCKRN-VYORK
ST-LANGST3
SF-LANGST3
SP-LANGST3
EV-WINGWR1
COMRN-VYORK
QL-SCARBH1
1-NONTIDAL-N
1-NONTIDAL-T
1-NONTIDAL
1-NONTIDAL-T
1-NONTIDAL-N
1-NONTIDAL
NONTID-T-DUM
TIDAL-T-DUM
FLOW3-KIRKNW
FLOW3-WOOLER
FLOW3-STAMFM
FLOW3-MITFRD
HULLTB-MERG
FLOW3-TEAMVL
FIXF-BURNHL
EVAP-WINGWR
COM-VYORK
EVAP-HGHMOW
COM-WOLDS
EVAP-KELDHD
COM-MOORS
BLACKT-MERG
FLOW3-WOOLSN
FLOW3-SHILMR
ROTHX-WHITTN
COM-SPENN
SNOW2-RINGST
FIXF-UGLYDB
FIXF-REDEBR
FLOW3-STANHP
FIXF-BEDBRN
FLOW3-ALSTON
FIXF-BATBRG
SNOW2-GORPLE
EVAP-MALHMT
FIXF-WESTAY
EVAP-LWRDUN
COM-NPENN
SNOW2-OSMOTH
FIXF-GOUTHW
COM-WPENN
FLOW3-BROADW
SNOW2-ARKENG
FLOW2-QUEENS
COM-NWPEN
SNOW2-MRCOTT
FLOW3-RIPPND
FLOW3-WALSDN
FLOW3-TODMDN
CALD3-HEBDBR
SNOW2-MALHMT
FLOW3-CLDENE
CALD3-SOWRBY
FLOW2-LOWHSS
FLOW2-KETTLW
COLN-ICI0003
CALD3-ELLAND
FLOW2-GRINTN
SNOW2-SKPBTH
URE0-BAINBR
WHAR-GRASTN3
FLOW3-CHERRY
COLN-COLNEB3
CALD3-BRIGHS
FLOW2-KILDWK
FLOW2-BURNBR
NIDD-BIRSTW
FLOW2XKIRBYW
FLOW2-KIRBYWSWAL-RICHLW2
FLOW2-RIPON0
URE0-KILGRM
WHAR-ADDGHM3
FLOW3-NORTHP
CALD3-HEATON
FLOW2-KEIGHL
AIRE-STOCKB3
NIDD-HUNSNG
URE0-WESTWK3
WHAR-OTLEY02
CALD-DEWSBY3
AIRE-COTTNL3
NIDD-SKIPBR
TYNE3-FEATHS
WHAR-ARTHNG2
CALD-WAKEFD3
AIRE-ARMLEY3
SNOW2-REDMRF
FLOW3-STAVLY
WEAR3-WITTNP
TYNE3-HAYDNB
TYNE3-REAVHL
SNOW2-KELDHD
SNOW2-HGHMOW
SNOW2-LANGST
WHAR-FLINTM
FLOW2-FARRER
CALD3-METHLY
AIRE-FLEETW
WEAR3-SUNDBR
COQU3-ROTHBY
TYNE3-CRAGHL
TYNE3-BYWELL
FLOW3-SCARBH
FLOW2-BOYNTN
FLOW2-WALDEN
WHAR-TADCST
WEAR3-CHESLS
COQU3-MORWCK
TYNE3-RIDNGM
NONTID-N-DUM
FLOW3-INGSBR
FLOW3-GATEHS
FLOW3-NORMAN
FLOW3-KIRKBY
FLOW3-CROOKH
SWAL-LEEMNG2
FLOW3-MARISH
FLOW3-HADYUP
FLOW3-DRONFD
SWAL-CRAKEH4
FLOW3-HADYHL
FLOW3-SHEEPB
URE0-ALDWRK3
FLOW2-BARNSL
FLOW2-HIGHFD
ROTH3-WHITTN
OUSE-SKELTN
AIRE-CASTLF3
DEAR-ADWICK
FLOW2-HADFDS
ROTH3-WOODHS
OUSE-VIKING
AIRE-BEALWR
DON0-DONCST
OUSE-NABURN
TIDAL-N-DUM
RYE03-NESS00
RYE03-HOWEBR
DERW3-MALTON
DERW3-KIRKHM
DERW3-BUTTCR
DERW3-ELVING
NONTIDAL-DUM
TIDAL-HYD2
NONT-ALL-DUM
TIDAL-DUM2
TID-ALL-DUM
3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500
3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500
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Not toa standard scale Yorkshire
Northeast RFFS Model Network
Yorkshire RFFS Forecast Requirement
Propagation of uncertainty ?
Model Network configuration
Flood forecasting and warning
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
02 - JAN 03 - JAN01 - JAN
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nfal
l ( m
m )
0
2468
1012
02 - JAN 03 - JAN01 - JAN
Flow
( m
3s-1
)
b) Flow
a) Rainfall
Observed
Forecast (known rainfall)
Forecast (unknown rainfall)
What ifs? Informal ensembles
River Seine at Paris
Land path
River path
Surface flow
Sub-surface flow
Return flow
AreaArea--wide flow wide flow modellingmodelling
AreaArea--wide Hydrological Grid Modelwide Hydrological Grid Modelwith rainfall ensembleswith rainfall ensembles
Probability products?
STSTochastic ochastic EEnsemble nsemble PPrediction rediction SSystemystemModel designModel design
Cascade framework to model dynamic scaling behaviourCascade framework to model dynamic scaling behaviour
merging extrapolation nowcasts with NWP forecastmerging extrapolation nowcasts with NWP forecast
Sources of uncertainty / errorSources of uncertainty / errordiagnosed velocity fields diagnosed velocity fields Lagrangian temporal evolution Lagrangian temporal evolution NWP forecastNWP forecast
initial state initial state -- radar inferred rain rateradar inferred rain rate
Forecast evolutionForecast evolutionblends extrapolation, NWP and noise cascades blends extrapolation, NWP and noise cascades stochastic noisestochastic noise
•• replaces extrapolated features beyond their life timesreplaces extrapolated features beyond their life times•• introduces features unresolved by NWPintroduces features unresolved by NWP
100 member ensemble100 member ensemble
Stochastic noise progressively dominates the forecast from Stochastic noise progressively dominates the forecast from the smallest scales upwards.the smallest scales upwards.
This process is arrested by the NWP forecast.This process is arrested by the NWP forecast.
4 km resolution4 km resolution6 hour forecast6 hour forecast100 members100 members
Towards probabilistic hydrological Towards probabilistic hydrological forecastingforecasting
Uncertainty in rainfall input dominates (Uncertainty in rainfall input dominates (Moore, 2002Moore, 2002))
Ignore other error sources Ignore other error sources egeg. rainfall. rainfall--runoff modelrunoff model
Ensemble of river flow from ensemble of rain accumulationEnsemble of river flow from ensemble of rain accumulation
Underestimates total uncertainty (Underestimates total uncertainty (Krzyztofowicz, 2001Krzyztofowicz, 2001))
Case study: 21 December 2002Case study: 21 December 2002CatchmentCatchment
River Mole, 142 kmRiver Mole, 142 km22, S.E. England, S.E. England
Rainfall forecastRainfall forecastSTEPS 100 member ensemble (no NWP)STEPS 100 member ensemble (no NWP)15 minute accumulation15 minute accumulationrange 6 hoursrange 6 hours
River flow forecastRiver flow forecastProbability Distributed Model (PDM)Probability Distributed Model (PDM)Calibrated using radar dataCalibrated using radar dataForecasts from 3 time originsForecasts from 3 time originsForecast range extended using zero rainfallForecast range extended using zero rainfall
Probability Distributed ModelProbability Distributed Model
Moisture storage
Runoff
SUBSURFACE STORAGE
Surfacerunoff
River Flow
SURFACE STORAGE
Potential EvaporationE
Rainfallf P
INPUT
k1 S1
k2 S2
Baseflow: kb Sb3
cmax
cminGroundwater
recharge:kg (S - St)bg
5%, median, 95% points of flow forecast
Forecast flow ensemble
Forecast rmse and mae
Probability Flood Forecasts from radar
rainfall nowcastensembles
CEH/Met Office/Australian Bureau of Meteorology collaboration
August 2002 August 2002 European floodsEuropean floods