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ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGY DIVISION NEWSLETTER 11 APR. 2016

If you need older URLs contact George at ghh@att.net. Please Note: “This newsletter contains articles that offer differing points of view regarding climate change, energy and other environmental issues. Any opinions expressed in this publication are the responses of the editor alone and do not represent the positions of the Environmental and Energy Engineering Division or the ASME.”

George Holliday

A. ENVIRONMENT 1. ASME ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING DIVISION EDUCATION SUPPORT PROGRAM AWARD

The ASME Environmental Engineering Division (EED) is proud to announce the recipients of its 1st Annual Education Support Program Awards. The Program is designed to help foster the impact of environmental engineering and education in communities around the world, to help people identify and solve environmental problems, and thereby lead to improvements in their quality of life. The Program can fund a maximum of $25,000 per year (no more than five proposals will be funded with a limit of $5,000 per award) to students, educators and EED members who propose interesting ways to impact environmental education in their communities. The Program received many outstanding proposals from not only the United States but also from several foreign counties. The Awards Committee, made up of ASME volunteers from the EED Executive Committee, reviewed the proposals and requested clarification from multiple proposers before deciding on the winners. The winners spanned the entire gamut of education from high school teachers to college/graduate students to professors. The winners were Mechanical Engineers, other engineers, as well as non-engineers. The winning proposals were: • Michael S. Czahor, Outreach Committee Director, Wind Energy Student Organization, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; Austin Herrema, Outreach Committee Ph.D. Representative, Wind Energy Student Organization, Iowa State University, Ames, IA: “Wind Energy Student Organization” • Megan Fuller, Assistant Professor of Chemistry, Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA; “Lab component for Sustainability Course” • Michael Lazere, Project Lead the Way Engineering Program, Marshalltown HS (Iowa); Mark Mba Wright, Assistant Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa: “Using Interactive iPython Simulations to Model Life Cycle Analysis of Ethanol Production” • David A. Roke, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Akron, Akron, OH; Theresa Cutright, Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Akron, Akron, OH: “High School Student Laboratory Education Module: Use of Abundant Waste Materials in Concrete Mix Design”

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EED and ASME want to congratulate all the winners as well as all others who submitted proposals. Arnold Feldman [jjdsenv@att.net]

2. PARIS AGREEMENT: A RISK REGULATION PERSPECTIVE Posted on March 28, 2016 | 2 comments by Judith Curry The Paris Agreement and, more generally, climate change policy, almost perfectly illustrate the contradictions of the post-modern industrialized world risk society, characterized by perceived threats confirmed by politicized science and governed by sub-politics beyond democratic control. – Lucas Bergkamp https://judithcurry.com/2016/03/28/paris-agreement-a-risk-regulation-perspective/#more-21348

3. FACING PRISON, RAJENDRA PACHAURI CLAIMS CLIMATE SCEPTICS ARE BEHIND SEXUAL HARASSMENT CASE http://www.thegwpf.com/facing-prison-ruin-and-disgrace-rajendra-pachauri-claims-climate-sceptics-are-behind-sexual-harassment-case/ Judith Curry

4. IS NUCLEAR POWER OUR ENERGY FUTURE — OR A DINOSAUR IN A DEATH SPIRAL? http://ensia.com/features/is-nuclear-power-our-energy-future-or-a-dinosaur-in-a-death-spiral/ Judith Curry

5. GREEN ENERGY MAY HAVE JUST COST BRITAIN 40,000 JOBS Guest essay by Eric Worrall Tata Steel has announced an immediate withdrawal from Britain, threatening 4000 steel working jobs, and 40,000 jobs in dependent industries. The main reason given for abandoning Britain is the high price Tata is forced to pay for energy, thanks to Britain’s green energy policies. Tata’s decision is nevertheless a body… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/31/green-energy-may-have-just-cost-britain-40000-jobs/

6. WHY ARE U.S. TAXPAYERS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS DUPLICATIONS OF EFFORT IN THE US GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM (USGCRP)? Guest Post by Bob Tisdale There are numerous duplications of effort in the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): from multiple U.S.-funded climate-modeling groups, to multiple producers of the same climate-related data. Why are taxpayers supporting all of those duplications of effort? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/29/why-are-u-s-taxpayers-supporting-numerous-duplications-of-effort-in-the-us-global-change-research-program-usgcrp/

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7. ARCTIC SEA ICE WINTERTIME EXTENT SEES A RECORD LOW Arctic sea ice appears to have reached a record low wintertime maximum extent for the second year in a row, according to scientists at the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA. Every year, the cap of frozen seawater floating on top of the Arctic Ocean and its neighboring seas melts during… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/29/arctic-sea-ice-wintertime-extent-sees-a-record-low/

8. AN ANSWER TO: IS THE RISE IN SEA LEVELS ACCELERATING? Guest essay by: Jan Kjetil Andersen There is a well-established consensus concluding that the global sea level has risen over the last century, and that the level continues to rise. However, the question about whether the rate is accelerating or not, is more inconclusive. To cast some light on this, I have analyzed the latest… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/28/an-answer-to-is-the-rise-in-sea-levels-accelerating/

9. ACCUSED OF SEXUAL HARASSMENT CRIMES, FORMER IPCC HEAD PACHAURI CLAIMS: “I WAS SET UP” Guest essay by Eric Worrall h/t James Delingpole – Disgraced former head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Rajendra Pachauri has struck back at accusations he has been, with claims that he was set up by his opponents. According to The Guardian; Faced with prison, ruin and disgrace when his case comes before… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/accused-ipcc-pervert-pachauri-i-was-set-up/

10. NO APRIL FOOLS JOKE – ARCTIC BLAST FOR NORTHEAST USA TO GIVE SNOW, 10’S AND 20’S TO NEW YORK, BOSTON From Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell: Been warning anyone that will listen for over 2 weeks now about April 1-10. Check out GFS lows next Wednesday He adds: EURO [forecast model] Going roidian on multiple cold shots, snow threats April 1-10 that’s a deep trough. Coupled with cold, it looks like winter wonderland for much of… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/no-april-fools-joke-arctic-blast-for-northeast-usa-to-give-snow-10s-and-20s-to-new-york-boston/

HEALTH 1. TURNING POINT IN CLIMATE FIGHT AS AGS UNITE TO TARGET EXXON CRIMES Attorneys General from Massachusetts and US Virgin Islands confirm official investigations into what 'ExxonKnew,' while momentum for more builds By Lauren McCauley, staff writer In a move many are hailing as a "turning point" in the climate fight, 20 state Attorneys General on Tuesday launched an unprecedented, multi-state effort to investigate and prosecute the "high-funded and morally vacant forces" that have stymied attempts to combat global warming—starting with holding ExxonMobil and other industry giants accountable for fraud and suppression of key climate science.

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"This is about facts, and science, and transparency," said Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey, who spoke at a press conference alongside New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, former Vice President Al Gore and seven other Attorneys General. "Fossil fuel companies that deceived investors and consumers about the dangers of climate change should be, must be, held accountable," Healey continued, saying there is a "troubling disconnect between what Exxon knew, what industry folks knew, and the company and industry chose to share with investors and the American public." The coalition of Attorneys General from 16 states and the U.S. Virgin Islands was convened by Schneiderman, who in November announced a state investigation into Exxon after reporting revealed that the oil giant had for decades known and suppressed evidence about the dangers that fossil fuels posed to the environment, and then purposely disseminated false information in order to boost its profits. "It is troubling that, as the polar caps melt, there are companies that are looking at that as an opportunity to go and drill, to go and get more oil. How selfish can you be?" —U.S. Virgin Islands Attorney General Claude Earl Walker California has also launched an investigation and on Tuesday Healey and U.S. Virgin Islands Attorney General Claude Earl Walker confirmed their states have as well. Schneiderman said that additional states were pursuing similar action and that the purpose of the coalition is to work together in this "common interest." "The scope of the problem we are facing, the size of the corporate entities and alliances and trade associations [working against science and public interest] is massive and it requires a multi-state effort," Schneiderman said. AG Walker said that Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are already "experiencing the effects of global warming," from coral bleaching and the proliferation of seaweed, to ever-more powerful hurricanes. "It is troubling that, as the polar caps melt, there are companies that are looking at that as an opportunity to go and drill, to go and get more oil. How selfish can you be?" Walker asked. "Your product is destroying this Earth, and you want to do what? Destroy the planet further," he added, saying they have "documents" showing just that. "We will not stop until we get to bottom of this and make it clear we have to do something transformational," he added. "We cannot continue to rely on fossil fuels." Environmental groups that have spearheaded the call for accountability and investigations into what Exxon knew heralded the announcements and the new AG climate coalition. "This creates a huge sense of momentum. Exxon may have been able to brush aside a few isolated inquiries, but with more states jumping on board, these investigations are sure to generate some serious waves," said May Boeve, executive director of 350.org, which on Tuesday launched the website ExxonKnew.org to share information about the investigations and petition the U.S. Department of Justice and state Attorneys General to "hold Exxon accountable." "The Exxon revelations may turn out to be the largest corporate scandal in history," Boeve continued. "Everyone is impacted by climate change, which means everyone has a stake in these investigations. A trial of ExxonMobil and the fossil fuel industry would be even bigger than the cases against Big Tobacco." As Katherine Sawyer, senior international organizer for watchdog group Corporate Accountability International, explained in an emailed statement following the press conference: In the '90s, investigations by attorneys general were the beginning of the end for Big Tobacco as we knew it and ushered in a series of lawsuits that shuttered its front groups, forced the release of internal documents, and held it liable to pay the high cost of its impacts on society. Just as a similar coalition did with Big Tobacco, this powerful coalition of state Attorneys General are leading the way in holding Exxon

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and the rest of the fossil fuel industry accountable for their decades of deception and protecting climate policy from their profit-driven interference. "Big Polluters have done everything in their power to deny climate change, it is time for our justice system to take back the climate debate," declared Annie Leonard, Greenpeace USA executive director, who said the AGs' announcement was "a clear demonstration of climate leadership." The coalition includes Attorneys General from California, Connecticut, District Of Columbia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, Washington state, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Appearing alongside members of that group, former Vice President Al Gore, whose 2006 documentary film An Inconvenient Truth is credited with spurring public debate about climate change, said, "I really believe that years from now this convening ...may well be looked back upon as a major turning point in the effort to hold to account those commercial interests...who have been deceiving the American people about the dangers of climate change." This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/03/29/turning-point-climate-fight-ags-unite-target-exxon-crimes and http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/science/exxon-mobil-under-investigation-in-new-york-over-climate-statements.html?_r=0

2. NO WATER CONTAMINATION FROM FRACKING March 25, 2016 tags: CO2, EPA, Fracking, National Geographic Magazine, natural gas After approximately ten years of activity, fracking has never been found to contaminate a water supply. Even the EPA was hard pressed to condemn fracking. The EPA’s June, 2015 report on fracking said: https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/no-water-contamination-from-fracking/ Don Shaw

COMMENTS A. THE WEEK THAT WAS: 2016-04-02 (APRIL 2, 2016) BROUGHT TO YOU BY SEPP (WWW.SEPP.ORG) THE SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY PROJECT By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Cooling Down? Writing in Watts Up With That?, geologist Norman Page argues that the fear of unprecedented and dangerous global warming caused by human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will abate by about 2020. Using sections of the Fourth Assessment Repot (AR-4, 2007) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Page points out that the climate orthodoxy does not know how to test for the reliability of the climate models it uses. Using proxy data for solar variation, Page asserts that the IPCC erroneously attributes changes due to solar variation for temperature change caused by increasing CO2. As such, the models greatly over estimate future warming, or what he calls Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW). According to Page, the short-term cooling that is expected to follow the current El Niño is greatly amplified by a long-term cooling caused by a decline in solar activity. We should be seeing this solar cased cooling by 2020. Page concludes that the reputation of science is being damaged by establishment climate scientists who have made “two egregious errors of judgment in their method of approach to climate forecasting and thus in their advice to policy makers in successive SPMs [Summary for Policymakers]. First, they based their analyses on inherently untestable and specifically structurally flawed models which included many

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questionable assumptions. Second they totally ignored the natural, solar driven, millennial and multi-decadal quasi-cycles.” Under the current circumstances, useful forecasting is impossible. “It is fashionable in establishment climate circles to present climate forecasting as a “wicked” problem. [A term used by mathematicians.] I would by contrast contend that by adopting the appropriate time scale and method for analysis it becomes entirely tractable so that commonsense working hypotheses with sufficient likely accuracy and chances of success to guide policy can be formulated. “If the real outcomes follow the near term forecasts in para 3.3 above [a cooling, found in the article] I suggest that the establishment position is untenable past 2020.This is imminent in climate terms. The essential point of this post is that the 2003 peak in Fig 1 marks a millennial peak which is totally ignored in all the IPCC projections.” No doubt some will dismiss the evidence presented by Page, simply because he is a petroleum geologist. But this would be similar to dismissing the evidence of plate tectonics presented by petroleum geologists. [As demonstrated in the court filings by some scientists, the major evidence asserted by the EPA in finding the CO2 can cause dangerous warming cannot be found. Further, the models used by the IPCC, and relied upon by the EPA, greatly overestimate the warming of the lower atmosphere, up to 50,000 feet (15,000 meters). This is where the major greenhouse effect occurs, and any amplification of an increased greenhouse effect from CO2 should occur.] See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy. ***************** Paris Agreement: In Climate Etc. Judith Curry presents the views of Lucas Bergkamp on the Paris Agreement. The Agreement codifies the work of the IPCC and the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), no matter how faulty the science and the models on which it rely is. “Despite these references to science, the relation between the ‘best available science’ and the Agreement is ambiguous at best and calamitous at worst.” “As the issue of the global temperature ‘hiatus’ illustrates, the ability of climate science to self-correct and properly inform policy-making is hampered by an inability to reexamine the fundamental assumptions driving the scientific enterprise and its relation to policy-making. Given climate policy’s objectives, funding agencies, scientists, and scientific advisors, in turn, are encouraged to provide ‘policy-relevant’ science supporting the policies pursued by the politicians. “Rather than attempting to reverse this trend, the Paris Agreement aggravates the current problems by reinforcing the scientistic [sic: scientific] thinking underlying climate policy-making: it codifies the putative causal relations between anthropogenic emissions and global temperature increase, between temperature increase and climate change, and between climate change and adverse impacts. It even intensifies and extends this thinking to make the temperature increase limitation goal more ambitious and to require net zero emissions by the second half of this century. “With the Paris Agreement, the relation between climate policy-making and science has become even more strained and entrenched. As Kuhn observed, the scientist is a solver of puzzles, and the puzzles upon which he concentrates are just those which he believes can be both stated and solved within the existing scientific tradition.’ Unfortunately, at this juncture, the revolution that is necessary to change the state of affairs requires not only a scientific, but also a political and policy paradigm shift. While the former is already difficult enough to achieve, the Paris Agreement made the latter even harder by increasing the stakes through coupling very substantial financial streams with the dominant hypothesis of human-induced climate change.” Bregkamp provided insights into policy driven science that is resulting in disregard of empirical evidence. As Curry states: “I have no idea how to push the ‘reset button’ here and salvage climate science. As for energy policy, one can only hope for technological breakthroughs in energy generation, storage and transmission that make all this a moot issue.”

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As described in the March 19 TWTW, the US State Department diverted $500,000,000, largely marked for economic development, to the UN Green Climate Fund established in the Paris Agreement. The Green Climate Fund has not been approved by Congress. The critical issue of credibility of government agencies is not moot when such actions are taken. See links under After Paris and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTHe_rn0dEU&feature=youtu.be ***************** Atmospheric Temperatures: Roy Spencer reports that the March global atmospheric temperature, as measured by satellites, and reported by the University of Alabama in Huntsville are lower than they were in February. February was an all-time high. The issue is what will happen in the next few months. Will the temperatures fall, as expected with a weakening El Niño? In what range will they settle? Will it be above, below, or approximately the same as it was before the El Niño? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Changing Weather. ***************** Political Conformity: The Wall Street Journal reports that “the Bank of England, the Financial Stability Board and the European Systemic Risk Board are examining how banks, insurers and pension funds would cope if policies designed to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions led to a sharp drop in the share price of oil, gas and coal companies. “They are looking at new rules to disclose exposures to both stocks and bonds in such companies, conducting stress tests based on different climate scenarios or even requiring additional capital buffers.” This may be an early step to force these financial institutions to conform to the political policies of the EU and the UNFCCC regarding carbon based fuels. The US sub-prime lending debacle provides a guideline of what may happen. For years, politicians demanded that banks and other financial establishments expand home mortgage lending to the less well-off or financially less responsible. Credit scores are the best single indicator of the ability, or willingness, to make mortgage payments. Such indicators were dismissed by the politicians and by government sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, major guarantors of home lending. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston even issued a report claiming that real estate values in the US will not fall. After the housing boom, came the housing bust in 2008 and the financial collapse. Immediately, politicians, such as Christopher Dodds and Barney Frank, who heavily promoted the sub-prime lending, blamed the banks and lending institutions for these loans, which they previously demanded. Conforming to political fads can be a financial disaster. Perhaps the annual report of Berkshire Hathaway, with comments by Warren Buffett, can provide guidance to these companies that will face political demands. The company is heavily involved in insurance. As reported in the March 5 TWTW, Berkshire Hathaway has had a 19.2% compounded annual gain for its stockholders from 1965 to 2015. See Article # 3 and http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2015ar/2015ar.pdf ***************** Compatibility of Science and Religion: Much has been written about the conflict between science and religion. Writing in American Thinker, physicist Thomas Sheahen uses the development of the Big Bang Theory from calculations derived from the General Theory of Relativity to illustrate that science and religion are not necessarily incompatible. Understanding priorities and the difference between knowledge and belief are very important. See Article # 1. ***************** Past Sea Levels: A paper in Nature examines the sea levels in past interglacial periods and finds that the levels were between 6 and 9 meters (20 to 30 feet) higher during the last interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) than they are now. The paper also notes that the CO2 concentrations were about 280 ppm (compared with about 400 ppm today) and that the global mean temperature was about 0 to 2º C warmer than today. These findings are generally acceptable.

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The paper then applies a model of what will happen to the Antarctic ice sheets, if the planet warms according to the climate models. Here is the dispute. The sensitivity of the earth’s climate (temperatures) to greenhouse gases, namely CO2, is under intense debate. Except for the Russian model, the global climate models generally greatly overestimate warming occurring in the lower atmosphere. There is no logical reason to assume that the estimates will be correct in the next decade or century. Further, there is no reason to assume that stopping CO2 emissions will stop natural sea level rise. The article did not go into the shortcomings of the global climate models nor did the headline stories stemming from it. See links under Un-Science or Non-Science? ***************** Additions and Corrections: Several readers, including physicist Donald Rapp have stated TWTW may becoming too dogmatic in its assertions that EPA’s finding that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health has a poor empirical basis. Rapp writes: “But there is a non-zero probability that in the future, human health and welfare will be affected negatively, if not endangered. While we cannot accurately predict that probability, nor can we accurately predict the impacts on human health and welfare, it seems to me that you are posing the question in stark black and white rather than gray.” Rapp is correct; the issue is not black and white. TWTW will try to avoid becoming dogmatic. It does not question the greenhouse effect or that increasing CO2 will cause some warming. The issue is how much, and will that warming be amplified, such as by increased water vapor in the atmosphere above the tropics? *****************

SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD THE JACKSON

SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria: • The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy. • The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment. • The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures. • The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent. The four past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, and Ernest Moniz are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 1. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in July 9. ***************** Number of the week: # 1 – Top US manufactured good – Refined petroleum products — such as gasoline, fuel oil, jet fuel and liquefied refinery gases. The value of shipments was nearly $700 billion in 2014 (latest data available), more than four times as much as the No. 2 product, light trucks, according to Market Watch. The data is from the “Annual Survey of Manufactures: Value of Products Shipments: Value of Shipments for Product Classes” (released 01/08/2016). The next eight are pharmaceuticals, airplanes, automobiles. Iron and steel, animal slaughtering, plastics, organic chemicals, and petrochemicals. See link under: Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past? ***************** No TWTW Next Week: Due to travel commitments, there will be no TWTW on the weekend of April 9. ################################################### http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2016/TWTW4-02-16.pdf

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B. GO NUCLEAR, INC.

Identical data yield drastically different conclusions about the role nuclear will play in meeting climate goals.

http://ensia.com/features/is-nuclear-power-our-energy-future-or-a-dinosaur-in-a-death-spiral/

C. IS NUCLEAR POWER OUR ENERGY FUTURE — OR A DINOSAUR IN A DEATH SPIRAL? Identical data yield drastically different conclusions about the role nuclear will play in meeting climate goals. http://ensia.com/features/is-nuclear-power-our-energy-future-or-a-dinosaur-in-a-death-spiral/ Judith Curry

D. MILD WINTERS, LESS SNOW ON GLACIERS MAY SPELL TROUBLE IN SUMMERS FOR UTTARAKHAND, ADJOINING STATES http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/dehradun/Mild-winters-less-snow-on-glaciers-may-spell-trouble-in-summers-for-Uttarakhand-adjoining-states/articleshow/51280268.cms?platform=hootsuite Judith Curry

E. PRESENTING THE WORLD’S LARGEST CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER PLANT BY MAFALDA DUARTE https://medium.com/world-of-opportunity/presenting-the-world-s-largest-concentrated-solar-power-plant-f750e01ed7ea#.n9j45smfm

F. AL GORE AND STATE ATTORNEY GENERALS START ANOTHER CLIMATE WITCH HUNT From Blue Virginia: (video follows) Unprecedented Coalition Vows To Defend Climate Change Progress Made Under President Obama And To Push The Next President For Even More Aggressive Action NEW YORK – Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman today joined Attorneys General from across the nation to announce an unprecedented coalition of top law enforcement officials committed to aggressively protecting and building… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/29/al-gore-and-state-attorney-generals-start-another-climate-witch-hunt/

G. IMAGINE THE HORRIFIC FATE OF THE LOSERS AFTER THE CLIMATE POLICY DEBATE ENDS Guest essay by Larry Kummer, of the Fabius Maximus website Summary: The appropriate public policy response to climate change is one of the great issues of our time, driving one of the longest yet inconsequential debates in modern US history. Yet everything comes to an end, eventually. This post speculates what that end might mean…

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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/29/imagine-the-horrific-fate-of-the-losers-after-the-climate-policy-debate-ends/

H. A NEW PAPER ON DISASTER LOSSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE A new paper appeared in Climatic Change this week by Visser et al. which looks at disasters and climate change (open access here). Like other studies and the IPCC assessment, Visser et al. find no trends in normalized disaster loses, looking at several metrics of economic and human losses. They conclude: The absence of trends in normalized disaster burden indicators appears to be largely consistent with the absence of trends in extreme weather events. This conclusion is more qualitative for the number of people killed. As a consequence, vulnerability is also largely stable over the period of analysis. The top line conclusion here is not surprising, though it is interesting because it uses independent methods on largely independent data. It is consistent with previous data and analyses (e.g., Bouwer 2011, Neumayer and Bartel 2011, Mohleji and Pielke 2014) as well as with the conclusions of the recent IPCC assessments (SREX and AR5). http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2014/07/a-new-paper-on-disaster-losses-and.html?spref=tw

I. CRUISE SHIP TO DARE THE NORTH WEST PASSAGE Guest essay by Eric Worrall The North West passage is an infamous graveyard of ships, where the weather can turn deadly without warning, and floating ice is an ever-present peril. But this arctic track record of disaster is not deterring the owners of the Crystal Serenity, and passengers reportedly paying a staggering $22,000 + per… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/cruise-ship-to-dare-the-north-west-passage/

J. GWPF CALLS ON GOVERNMENT TO SCRAP UNILATERAL CLIMATE POLICIES The Global Warming Policy Forum is calling on the Government to delay the 5th Carbon Budget and scrap Britain’s unilateral Carbon Floor Price both of which are contributing to the crisis of UK steel and other energy intensive industries. Along with substantial falls in steel prices, the UK’s uncompetitive electricity prices have been a contributing… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/gwpf-calls-on-government-to-scrap-unilateral-climate-policies/

K. RENEWABLES ARE USELESS: THE EVIDENCE IS OVERWHELMING Guest essay by Eric Worrall Al Gore has a problem. He seems to want people to believe that only climate skeptics oppose renewables. The truth is, a small but growing number of prominent greens, openly acknowledge that renewables in their current form are not a scalable replacement for fossil fuels. In Al Gore’s announcement of… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/29/renewables-are-useless-the-evidence-is-overwhelming/

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L. NOAA TWEAKS THEIR POORLY PERFORMING CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL TO REMOVE ‘COLD BIAS’ ‘Cold bias’ removed from Atlantic From NOAA/NWS technical information notices (TIN) (h/t) to Dr. Ryan Maue and Larry Kummer. It seems the climate models can’t quite zoom in on the short term future of a region of the globe. Literally, they are “all over the map”: What will the future hold for ENSO? Who knows?… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/29/noaa-tweaks-their-poorly-performing-climate-forecast-system-model-to-remove-cold-bias/

M. TRACKING ‘MARINE HEATWAVES’ SINCE 1950 — AND HOW THE ‘BLOB’ STACKS UP From the University of Washington Unusually warm oceans can have widespread effects on marine ecosystems. Warm patches off the Pacific Northwest from 2013 to 2015, and a couple of years earlier in the Atlantic Ocean, affected everything from sea lions to fish migration routes to coastal weather. A University of Washington oceanographer is lead author… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/tracking-marine-heatwaves-since-1950-and-how-the-blob-stacks-up/

N. FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ON RECORD, ACCORDING TO THE UKMO Guest Post by Bob Tisdale With the publications of the NASA/GISS and NOAA/NCEI global surface temperature anomaly data over the past few weeks, alarmists have been touting “record high” February 2016 global surface temperature anomalies. See the posts Alarmism Cranked Up to Absurd Level and More Alarmist Nonsense with the Release of the Redundant* NOAA Global Temperature… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/february-2016-global-surface-temperature-anomalies-may-or-may-not-have-been-highest-on-record-according-to-the-ukmo/

O. OH NOES! MODEL SAYS: SEA-LEVEL RISE FROM ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET COULD DOUBLE And a bunch of volcanoes could erupt, and a Carrington type solar flare event could happen, and an asteroid could hit the Earth. I worry about these far more than Antarctica. From Penn State climate modeling via Eurekalert: An ice sheet model that includes previously underappreciated processes indicates that sea level may rise almost 50… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/oh-noes-model-says-sea-level-rise-from-antarctic-ice-sheet-could-double/

P. FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ON RECORD, ACCORDING TO THE UKMO Guest Post by Bob Tisdale UPDATE:

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I used the phrase “may or may not” with respect to February 2016 being the warmest on record in the title and text of this post. Nick Stokes on the thread of the cross post at WUWT advises that based on his analysis “98.7% of the time, Feb 2016… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/february-2016-global-surface-temperature-anomalies-may-or-may-not-have-been-highest-on-record-according-to-the-ukmo/

Q. GWPF CALLS ON GOVERNMENT TO SCRAP UNILATERAL CLIMATE POLICIES Anthony Watts / 13 hours ago "The Global Warming Policy Forum is calling on the Government to delay the 5th Carbon Budget and scrap Britain’s unilateral Carbon Floor Price both of which are contributing to the crisis of UK steel and other energy intensive industries. Along with substantial falls in steel prices, the UK’s uncompetitive electricity prices have been a contributing factor to the closure of steel plants around the country. Britain’s Carbon Floor Price is a unilateral carbon tax at a floor price of £18 per tCO2. It is more than four times higher than the EU’s current carbon price which is less than £4 (€4.80 on 30 March 2016). The GWPF has been consistently warning about the rising policy cost of electricity prices which are expected to increase by 47% by 2020 for large industrial energy consumers. The UK’s extra large users of electricity are already paying nearly twice as much for power as the EU average http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/gwpf-calls-on-government-to-scrap-unilateral-climate-policies/comment-page-1/#comment-2178919

R. "CLIMATE HUSTLE" GOES TO WASHINGTON: SKEPTICAL FILM TO PREMIERE ON CAPITOL HILL; RIVETING PANEL WITH GOV. SARAH PALIN AND OTHER GUESTS FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 31, 2016 (March 31, 2016) The U.S. premiere of CFACT’s groundbreaking new documentary, Climate Hustle will take place at a Capitol Hill briefing in the historic Rayburn Office Building, including a riveting panel discussion on climate change featuring Gov. Sarah Palin and other notable guests. The invitation-only briefing and panel discussion… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/31/climate-hustle-goes-to-washington-skeptical-film-to-premiere-on-capitol-hill-riveting-panel-with-gov-sarah-palin-and-other-guests/

S. NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER - MARCH, 2016 http://efn-usa.org/ John Shanahan

T. DECONTO AND POLLARD – AN ANTARCTIC SCIENCE (FICTION?) DISASTER Readers may recall the announcement of the PR for the recent paper claiming Sea-Level rise from Antarctic ice sheet could double in WUWT. In a tongue and cheek way, I prefaced it with “Oh Noes!” due to the ridiculous claims being made from model output. I wasn’t the only one seeing this paper as flawed. It’s actually…

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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/31/deconto-and-pollard-an-antarctic-science-fiction-disaster-2/

U. U.S. HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE & TECHNOLOGY 2 Feb 2016 Testimony of John R. Christy University of Alabama in Huntsville. http://docs.house.gov/meetings/SY/SY00/20160202/104399/HHRG-114-SY00-Wstate-ChristyJ-20160202.pdf

V. LATEST GLOBAL TEMPS- LOWER DUE TO EL NINO

Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere. Every month, John Christy and I update global temperature datasets that represent the piecing together of the temperature data from a total of fourteen instruments flying on different satellites over the years. A discussion of the latest version (6.0) of the dataset is located here. The graph above represents the latest update; updates are usually made within the first week of every month. Contrary to some reports, the satellite measurements are not calibrated in any way with the global surface-based thermometer records of temperature. They instead use their own on-board precision redundant platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) calibrated to a laboratory reference standard before launch. http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ Roy Spencer

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W. CARBON TAX HOAXSTERS SNARE TRUMP FOLLOWERS WITH FAKE PR Of course today is April Fools Day, and all sorts of shenanigans are about. This is why I ran my Friday Funny yesterday, because I didn’t want it taken for a prank. With Carbon Tax proponents, it’s just another day of pulling the wool over your eyes. Today, an outfit called “Carbon Pulse” created a… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/01/carbon-tax-hoaxsters-snare-trump-followers-with-fake-pr/ Regards George