Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability

BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden

Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

Objective:1.How to combine Impact with Vulnerabilityto obtain Damage?2.The numerical result for damage must be applied to identify damage differences for different scenarios

Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability

Impact Vulnerability

Damage

?

Damage ref

Damage 1

Damage 2

Damage 3

Damage 4

Diff 1

Diff 2

Diff 3

Diff 4

Definition of Damage

General definition: Risk = Probability · Consequence, [EUR/year]Present definition: Risk = Probability · Impact·Vulnerability, [g oil'/y/m²)]Damage calculation: Integration of risk over frequencies and area, [g oil']

Damage is:•amount of oil in each cell, spilt due to accidents (including drift, etc.)•weighted according to env. and soc.-eco. vulnerability per cell•time-averaged (seldom big + frequent small spills) •summarised for a sub-region

Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability

Addition of damage at surface and in water column: Impact x Vulnerability => Damage

All seasons, spill sizes, oil types, all winds, all accidents

Base case: Surface

Base case: Water column

Damage

• Oil on shore Mass of oil per shoreline in a specific sub-region. Combined with vulnerability of shoreline.

• Oil on surface mass (oil) per area water surface. combined with surface vulnerability

• Oil in the water columnmass (oil) per area water column (horizontal area – assuming 20-60 m layer thickness). combined with water column vulnerability

Environmental damage: 3 types of impact

Challenging question: How shall environmental and socio-economic Damage balance Impact and Vulnerability?

Mutual decision:Impact and Vulnerability shall be of equal consequence for environmental and socio-economic Damage

"100% Damage = 50% Impact + 50% Vulnerability"

Balance of impact and vulnerability

Frequency analysis of impact dataset: Range (0-10.000.000)=> dominant

Frequency analysis of vulnerability dataset:Range: 1-50

Frequency analysis of data sets

Impact: Unchanged (physical dimension)

Vulnerability: Transformed(index)

Range of the vulnerability data is transformed so range is equal in both data sets

Transformation of dataset

Preparation of comparable dataset:

Transformation of dataset

2·4+2·4·9 = 80 maps

Transformation

Multiplication

2·4·9=72 datasets

9 damage maps

5x(9-1)= 40 values

Process

Results: 1.Method to determine absolute damage (kg oil weighted).2.Determine damage differences for each scenario:

Summary

Questions?

Thank you

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