traffic model for the bonn agreement area be-aware ii final conference, 18-19 november, ronneby,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Traffic model for the Bonn Agreement Area
BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden
Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument
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BackgroundTask H Traffic Analysis
Overall objective:• To develop a model that describes the traffic in the area• This is later applied with the cargo model to simulate
accidents and consequences– Accident type– Location– Spill size– Spill substance
Basis:• AIS data• IHS Fairplay (representative ships)
Traffic Analysis
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BackgroundProcess
• AIS data• Definition of route net• Idealised traffic
Obstacles to be treated• Areas with no/low AIS coverage or missing data
– Middle of North Sea– German Bight– Other fallouts
Future traffic
Traffic Analysis
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BackgroundProject area and sub regions:
1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel
Traffic Analysis
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AIS basis- Period 2011- The true traffic- Local differences
Traffic Analysis
• • • ••
•• • Dlatt•
••
• ••
Dlong
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AIS basis- Clear routes are used
- TSS- Reefs/shallow water- Vessels take the shortest journey
Traffic Analysis
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AIS basis - Various vessel types
Traffic Analysis
No offshore or fishing Only offshore
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Route Net• 10000 routes
Traffic Analysis
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Idealised traffic
Traffic Analysis
54
55
10.5 12.5
54
55
56
57
58
7 9 11 13
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Idealised trafficFor every route-Representative vessels using route-Mean value-Standard deviation
Traffic Analysis
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Idealised trafficWhat do we want do capture:•Actual movement of vessels•Harbour to harbour combinations
Traffic Analysis
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Areas with low coverageNorth sea and German BightGeneral approchClosure of gaps of up to 36 hours except vessels at the area around Kiel Canal
Closure of all <23 hours gaps
Manuel correction of the number of vessels on the routes in the German Bight based on Accseas project traffic.
Traffic Analysis
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Areas with low coverageProcedureThe individual vessel is followedRoutes are closed by algorithm finding the shortest pathRoutes begins and ends at harbours
Traffic Analysis
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Idealised trafficWhat do we have in our traffic model:•Actual movement of vessels•Harbour to harbour combinations
For every route:-Vessel information
- Type- Size- Distribution
-From/to port
Traffic Analysis
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Idealised trafficHow do we apply this later:
Traffic Analysis
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Traffic model Cargo model
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Route Net 2020Changes caused by:•Windfarms
•New TSS
Traffic Analysis
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Route Net 2020Changes caused by:•Windfarms•New TSS
Traffic Analysis
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Idealised traffic 2020Process• Make new route net• Identify ships affected• Identify alternative route
+
Future traffic changes• Changes in the size of vessels• Changes in the number of voyages
Traffic Analysis
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Idealised traffic 2020• Routes affected by wind parks• New TSS routes implemented• New tracks have been found for all
vessels affected• Prognosis implemented by adjusting
2011 traffic.
Traffic Analysis
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Methodology
Summary and conclusion• Traffic based on current situation 2011• Best estimate of future traffic based on
adjusted tracks, sizes, voyages of vessels• Port-to-port cargo model a challenge – but
possible• Connected with the other models
(Cargo/Pilotage/other RRM)• Input for the accident model
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Questions?
Thank you
beaware.bonnagreement.org