ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING NEWSLETTER

16 SEPT. 2013 Please be aware any Newsletter URL ending in 020701.pdf and 020610.pdf are available for downloading only during the six days following the date of the edition. If you need older URLs contact George at ghh@att.net. Please Note: This newsletter contains articles that offer differing points of view regarding climate change, energy and other environmental issues. Any opinions expressed in this publication are the responses of the readers alone and do not represent the positions of the Environmental Engineering Division or the ASME. George Holliday This week's edition includes: 1) ENVIRONMENT – A. SHELL TO BE BETTER PREPARED FOR ARCTIC DRILLING, SPOKESMAN SAYS Royal Dutch Shell expects to be better prepared to drill off the Alaskan coast after it accepted tough emission limits for its operations and a fine worth $1.1 million for environmental violations. "Following a season of operations, we now better understand how emissions control equipment actually functions in Arctic conditions," said Shell spokesman Curtis Smith http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/09/06/shell-responds-to-arctic-pollution-deal/?shared=email&msg=fail

C. CARBON MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE 2013 October 21-23, 2013 Hilton Alexandria Old Town Alexandria, VA  

This foundational conference , sponsored by the eight major engineering societies (ASME, AIChE, IEEE, ASCE, TMS, SME, SPE and AIST), draws practiced professionals from all engineering disciplines to share their expertise and provide perspective on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to changing climate. The conference will focus on engineering perspectives regarding technologies, strategies, policies, management systems, uncertainties, and metrics for evaluating alternatives. Gain engineering expertise, experience and perspectives on technologies, strategies, policies, management systems, metrics, and other key issues. Discover novel approaches and new technologies that are instrumental to technical, economic and social advancements in carbon management. Through robust scheduled sessions, well-known speakers from leading companies and academic institutions, co-located workshops, and networking opportunities, this year's program will address 20+ topics under these four themes:

• Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage

• Carbon Management Pathways from Electricity Generation to End User • Potentially Game-Changing Technology and Evaluation • Engineering Challenges and Solutions for Adaptation to Climate Change

To view the technical program, visit http://fscarbonmanagement.org/content/technical-program Register today and be part of the one conference focused on the engineering perspectives critical to meeting the challenge of greenhouse gas emissions. For more information or to register, please visit us at http://fscarbonmanagement.org/content/cmtc-2013 Arnold Feldman

D. ASME is planning to develop an annual large scale Energy Conference. Its first one is being planned for March 17–19, 2014 in San Diego and will focus on fracking. Arnold Feldman 

E. EED MEETING ANNOUNCEMENT The Environmental Engineering Division (EED) is planning two meetings for all its members who are able to attend, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast. The East Coast meeting will be held in conjunction with the Carbon Management Technology Conference (CMTC), which will take place at the Hilton Alexandria Old Town in Alexandria, VA, October 21-23. The EED meeting will be held the afternoon of Tuesday, October 22, from 7PM -9PM. The West Coast meeting will be held during IMECE 2013 in San Diego, CA, November 15-21. The specific date and time have not yet been set. At both meetings, we will discuss the recent EED member survey, the revised Division By-Laws, and interest in forming and participating in new technical committees identified as being of interest in the survey. EED members who wish to attend the Division meeting will not be required to register for either conference, although there are certainly benefits to attending these conferences if you are able. For more information on the EED meetings contact:

East Coast: Arnie Feldman, EED ViceChair, 267-880-2325, jjdsenv@att.net West Coast: Andy Miller, EED Chair, 213-244-1809, Miller.Andy@epa.gov

F.  GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE CCS WORKSHOP AT CMTC 2013 

You are invited to participate in a workshop titled CCS/CCUS Overview: What It Is and What Are Its Implications? The workshop is sponsored by the Global CCS Institute in collaboration with the 2013 Carbon Management Technology Conference. It will be held at the Hilton Alexandria Old Town in Alexandria, VA on Sunday, October 20, 2013, and is geared to individuals who are involved in carbon dioxide management but who may not be an expert in all aspects.

Registration for this workshop is free: https://chenected.wufoo.com/forms/registration-ccsccus-overview-workshop/ and a networking reception will be held for all attendees after the completion of the workshop. For those who wish to further enhance their knowledge of carbon management we encourage you to also attend the Carbon Management Technology Conference (CMTC 2013), sponsored by AIChE, ASME, ASCE, IEEE, AIST, SPE, TMS, and SME which begins on Monday October 21. For more information visit the website: http://www.fscarbonmanagement.org/content/cmtc-2013 

2) HEALTH – A. FUNGAL INFECTION, CONTAMINATED DRUG - USA (14) At-A-Glance: Status: Ongoing Investigation Infection: Fungal Facility Type: Outpatient Setting Case Count: 750 States: 20 Deaths: 64 http://www.eandp-environment.net/Health/Health020701.pdf  

3) SAFETY – A. INCORRECTLY INSTALLED PRESSURE SAFETY VALVES (PSV) COULD CAUSE PIPING FAILURE    

ALERT DATE: 09/09/2013 WHAT HAPPENED? When a PSV relieves pressure, there is a large amount of force that is applied opposite the direction of flow. In the below picture, the flow is directed up so the force is down. There is significant risk that the pipe nipple will break off in the event that the PSV relieves pressure. The farther away the PSV is from the vessel, the more torque and stress it will put on the pipe coming out of the vessel. This is similar to a wrench; the longer the handle, the more torque you can apply. A related issue is that PSV discharge piping needs to be directed away from workers and supported to prevent unscrewing of the piping.

REMEDIAL ACTIONS: 1. Inventory existing PSV’s to identify ones that need to be re-plumbed or that require additional support. 2. Normally, flanged PSV's are bolted directly onto the vessel flange. 3. If a test port valve and an isolation valve that extend the PSV further from the vessel are required, then additional support is needed.

4. TRANSPORTATION – A. CANADIAN PM SEEKS TO SECURE KEYSTONE XL APPROVAL WITH EMISSIONS DEAL Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has proposed working with President Barack Obama to curb emissions in the oil and natural gas industry in an effort to secure U.S. approval for TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline. "The Keystone project is in both countries' national interests and will create jobs and economic growth on both sides of the border while increasing North American energy security," said Stephen Lecce, a spokesman for Harper. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/06/canada-keystone-obama-idUSL2N0H21L620130906

B. SUPPORTERS OF KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE CRITICIZE SLOW PROJECT REVIEW Supporters of the planned cross-border Keystone XL pipeline expressed frustration over the State Department's lingering review of public comments submitted for the project, which would bring

crude oil from Canada all the way down to refineries in the southern states. "We cannot miss this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to grow our economy, secure our energy independence and reduce our oil imports from countries that do not share our values," said Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., one of several senators supporting the project. President Barack Obama has promised to consider the project's environmental footprint in deciding whether to approve the pipeline. http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/08/30/Tit-for-tat-claims-on-Keystone-XL/UPI-45061377859814/** 

COMMENTS: A. THE WEEK THAT WAS: 2013-09-07 (SEPT. 7, 2013) By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) ################################################### The Hot Spot: The supporters of the UN International Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) have played elaborate statistical games in their efforts to explain away the fact that satellite and weather-balloon observations have failed to identify the Hot Spot. This is the volume of the atmosphere centered over the tropics at about 10 km (33,000 feet) where a surface warming trend, whatever the cause, should cause a more pronounced atmospheric warming trend. Note that warming trends in the two locations are the issue, not temperatures. IPCC supporters have mistakenly claimed the Hot Spot is the distinct human fingerprint. SEPP Chairman Fred Singer presents an unusual explanation why the Hot Spot has not been detected by the most comprehensive measurements of the earth’s temperatures, the satellite observations. No doubt, it will be controversial. Please see Article # 1. **************** Australia’s Hot Spot: Australia’s Hot Spot: On September 7, Australia held parliamentary elections. The party in power, the Labor Party, was thoroughly defeated. The poor economy was one issue; another major issue was the carbon tax. After the carbon tax was implemented, the Carbon Sense Coalition and the No Carbon Tax Climate Skeptics Party were formed. These groups exposed to the public the preposterous climate claims being made by government agencies in the government’s efforts to justify the carbon tax. TWTW reader Stefan Björklund analyzed the energy program of the victorious Liberal-National coalition, commenting how different it is from Germany’s energy plan. The Liberal-National coalition energy program features scrapping the CO2 tax, no emissions trading, support for increased use of domestic oil, natural gas and coal, thorium development for nuclear energy (thanks to David Archibald), and tougher environment standards for wind power with real time monitoring of noise and health effects. Now if only the victorious party can avoid implementing foolish programs “to fight” largely naturally occurring global warming/climate change. Please see links under Questioning Green Elsewhere and Cap and Trade and Carbon Taxes. **************** Germany’s Hot Spot: A German federal election will be held on September 22 to determine the members of the Bundestag, the main federal legislative house. Almost unthinkable a year ago, members of the mainstream press, such as Der Spiegel, are severely criticizing the government’s green energy program with articles such as: “Germany's Energy Poverty: How Electricity Became a Luxury Good.” If the election is unfavorable to the government, perhaps some politicians will begin to notice that the public does not like being punished by higher energy

costs stemming from politically egotistical efforts “to fight” global warming/climate change. Please see links under Questioning European Green. **************** Another Piece to the Puzzle: The CERN experiment demonstrated that high-energy cosmic rays can promote the formation of small clusters of molecules. This was another step in testing the cosmic-ray/cloud hypothesis advocated by Danish physicists, including Henrik Svensmark. The hypothesis is that high-energy cosmic rays influence the cloudiness on earth, but are modulated by the sun. When the sun is not active, the magnetic shield is reduced, and more high-energy rays hit the upper atmosphere resulting in more clouds. When the sun is active, fewer high energy cosmic rays hit the upper atmosphere resulting in less clouds. A small change in cloudiness can have a significant influence on surface temperatures. After the CERN experiment, the hypothesis ran into a snag. The numerical simulations of the prevailing chemical theory demonstrated that the small particles will not grow to sufficient size to create clouds. The assumption is that once the sun goes down in a particular area, the particles stop growing. The researchers at the Technical University of Denmark tested the theory in a series of experiments. In one set of experiments the particles stopped growing. In another set of experiments, they found that under exposure to natural cosmic rays and gamma-rays the small particles continue to grow after the daylight is removed. No doubt, there is much additional work needed and the Climate Establishment will find other objections. But the persistence of the Danish researcher to continue to test a politically unpopular scientific hypothesis is laudatory. If it proves to be correct, the claim that carbon dioxide emissions are the principal cause of global warming/climate change is wrong. Please see links under Science: Is the Sun Rising? **************** Hypothesis Testing: Last week’s TWTW discussed hypothesis testing as presented by the noted physicist Richard Feynman. The tested hypothesis is a positive assertion of a relationship between two or more phenomena. The null hypothesis is that there is no relationship, which is the default position. If the hypothesis fails direct testing, the default is tentatively accepted until another hypothesis survives testing. Professor Emeritus Elliot Cramer of the Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina objected, stating this is wrong. You can only reject the null hypothesis, you can never accept it. By so doing, Professor Cramer brings up another form of hypothesis testing, an indirect form. The null hypothesis is tested to a certain level of confidence. If it fails, the positive assertion is tentatively accepted. Without getting into the statistical techniques, each form has its advocates. The direct testing form is generally accepted in physical sciences. The indirect testing form is accepted in many social sciences and in many medical studies. As such, it has resulted in many false positives, which cannot be replicated. If climate science is a physical science, then the generally accepted methods for physical sciences should be followed unless there is compelling evidence that they are unsatisfactory, which should be stated. In any event, the practice of testing models against the same data that was used to develop the models is unsatisfactory. Please see last week’s TWTW and the repeated links under Problems in the Orthodoxy. **************** Scientific Method: Following a long exchange among scientists on the scientific method, SEPP Director, Tom Sheahen neatly summed up the discussion. The conclusions are noteworthy.

A) A cornerstone of the scientific method, probably 500 years old, can be expressed as "data trumps theory." In the 20th century, Feynman said it elegantly a dozen times. B) There really are subjects too complicated to describe easily, in which case computer modeling is required. That is perfectly okay, and indeed common in any field involving fluids in motion. However, C) When the computer models don't agree with the observations, don't complain about the data, but instead go back and revise the models. D) Don't begin trying to plan national policy until you've got the science right, as evidenced by agreement between theory and data. Otherwise it's just futile and expensive. What is obviously logically flawed is to assert point B and then ask for blind trust in computer models, ignoring the need to observe point C. **************** Social Benefits of Carbon: A study asserted that soot emitted by the use of coal with the industrialization of Europe stopped the Little Ice Age, at least in Europe where glacial expansion threatening villages stopped. Luboš Motl comments that the paper talks about forcings between 9 and 35 watts per square meters. “This is vastly higher than the ‘dangerous’ forcing often attributed to the doubling of CO2, 3.7 watts per square meter.” If the paper is correct, we all should be thankful. Please see links under Social Benefits of Carbon. **************** 97%Consensus: On his Bishop Hill blog, Andrew Montford announces his paper on the famed 97% of scientists … produced by John Cook, et al. and claimed by President Obama. Montford finds that: An analysis of the methodology used by Cook et al. shows that the consensus referred to is trivial: 1) carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas; and 2) human activities have warmed the planet to some unspecified extent. Please see link Challenging the Orthodoxy. **************** Testimony: Roger Pielke, Jr. downloaded the 1974 Senate testimony of Paul Ehrlich and John Holdrenon the Limits to Growth and their Malthusian philosophy. Pielke intends to use it for a future course about the role of experts in policy making. Ehrlich is now a Fellow of the Royal Society and Holdren is the science adviser to President Obama. A quote from each is in order. Ehrlich “I suspect you're aware, that the increased price of petroleum which is certainly related to the near depletion of petroleum resources-they're going to be gone by the end of the century . . .” Holdren: “The main point here is that, although there may be defects in any specific detailed model, the general conclusion is far more robust than any specific model.” Please see link under Lowering Standards. http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm

B. A QUESTION FOR ORESKES – BUT WHAT DO WE MEAN BY CONSENSUS?

Posted on September 7, 2013 by Anthony Watts Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Politicians pay for science, but scientists should not be politicians. Consensus is a political concept. Unwisely deployed, it can be damagingly anti-scientific. A reply to Naomi Oreskes (Nature, 4 September 2013). Subject terms: Philosophy of science, consensus, climate change The celebrated mathematician, astronomer and philosopher of science Abu Ali Ibn al-Haytham, or Alhazen, is justly celebrated as the founder of the scientific method. His image appears on Iraqi banknotes and on the postage stamps of half a dozen nations of the ummah wahida. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/07/a‐question‐for‐oreskes‐but‐what‐do‐we‐mean‐by‐consensus/#more‐93280C. AUSTRALIA LIBERATED FROM THEIR LONG NATIONAL GREEN NIGHTMARE Posted on September 7, 2013 by Anthony Watts Today is a great day not only in Australian history, but also in world history. It marks the day when people of character and sensibility pushed back against an overwrought and pointless green agenda, and pushed back in a big way. They’ve had enough, and they’ve scraped the Krudd off their shoes and are moving forward. Tony Abbot has won the Australian election in a landslide, and vows to abolish the carbon tax as a first order of business. Abbott has declared Australia is “once more open for business” in claiming victory in Saturday’s election. It is a huge blow to the Rudd-Gillard labor party and their green goals, which were built on a lie foisted on the Australian people. In 2010 when Gillard said “no carbon tax” in a videotaped speech that has been seen as the key moment Australians lost trust: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/07/australia-liberated-from-their-long-national-green-nightmare/#more-93295

E 2013 BAD YEAR FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ENTHUSIASTS Those in the Government who have warned of an ice free North Pole this year or within several years are confused as evidenced by 2013 Arctic ice recovery, as evidenced by the conversations below regarding the record recovery in minimum Arctic sea ice so far this season. Since we are ending the Arctic ice melt season within a week or two not much is expected to change. Also remember all those alarmist predictions about increasing Hurricane frequency due to global warming and climate change? Again we are within days of setting a record for the latest date absent a Hurricane. Of course this does not say we will still not get a big storm before the end of Hurricane season. Finally, as previously noted, there has been a 15+ year absence of increased temperatures which the warming advocates cannot explain. Who knows if we are in a warming or cooling cycle based on natural cycles?

The following covers the unpredicted Arctic Ice recovery despite Russian and Canadian ice breaker activity in the Arctic that is surprising the so called "experts". http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/07/tough-times-for-sea-ice-melt-enthusiasts/#more-93264 Don Shaw

F. CLIMATE CHANGE’S SILVER BULLET? OUR INTERVIEW WITH ONE OF THE WORLD’S TOP GEOENGINEERING SCHOLARS (But no data, GHH) By Ari Phillips on September 6, 2013 at 1:10 pm

MELBOURNE, Australia — Since coming to Australia almost two months ago I’ve heard about Clive Hamilton in the process of reporting just about every story I’ve done. Then I picked up his new book Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering and now I see what all the fuss is about. In all of the debates over how to address climate change, climate engineering — or geoengineering — is among the most contentious. It involves large-scale manipulation of the Earth’s climate using grand technological interventions, such as fertilizing the oceans with iron to absorb carbon dioxide or releasing sulfur into the atmosphere to reduce radiation. While its proponents call geoengineering a silver bullet for our climate woes, its skeptics are far more critical. Joe Romm, for one, likens geoengineering to a dangerous course of chemotherapy and radiation to treat a condition curable through diet and exercise — or, in this case, emissions reduction. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/06/2522511/clive-hamilton-anthropocene/ Irv Smith

G. UK NEWSPAPERS REPORT GLOBAL COOLING And now it's global COOLING! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year

Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012 BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by

2013 Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html#ixzz2eKcQH2fD Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month

By David Rose A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent. The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back. Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading. The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict. In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’. The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter climate change. Those predictions now appear gravely flawed. THERE WON'T BE ANY ICE AT ALL! HOW THE BBC PREDICTED CHAOS IN 2007 Only six years ago, the BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013, citing a scientist in the US who claimed this was a ‘conservative’ forecast. Perhaps it was their confidence that led more than 20 yachts to try to sail the Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific this summer. As of last week, all these vessels were stuck in the ice, some at the eastern end of the passage in Prince Regent Inlet, others further west at Cape Bathurst.

Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer. The BBC’s 2007 report quoted scientist Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, who based his views on super-computer models and the fact that ‘we use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice’. He was confident his results were ‘much more realistic’ than other projections, which ‘underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice’. Also quoted was Cambridge University expert Professor Peter Wadhams. He backed Professor Maslowski, saying his model was ‘more efficient’ than others because it ‘takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice’. He added: ‘This is not a cycle; not just a fluctuation. In the end, it will all just melt away quite suddenly.

The continuing furore caused by The Mail on Sunday’s revelations – which will now be amplified by the return of the Arctic ice sheet – has forced the UN’s climate change body to hold a crisis meeting. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was due in October to start publishing its Fifth Assessment Report – a huge three-volume study issued every six or seven years. It will now hold a pre-summit in Stockholm later this month. Leaked documents show that governments which support and finance the IPCC are demanding more than 1,500 changes to the report’s ‘summary for policymakers’. They say its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

At the heart of the row lie two questions: the extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels, as well as how much of the warming over the past 150 years – so far, just 0.8C – is down to human greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural variability. In its draft report, the IPCC says it is ‘95 per cent confident’ that global warming has been caused by humans – up from 90 per cent in 2007. This claim is already hotly disputed. US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: ‘In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. It’s now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level.’ She pointed to long-term cycles in ocean temperature, which have a huge influence on climate and suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. This led some scientists at the time to forecast an imminent ice age. Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, was one of the first to investigate the ocean cycles. He said: ‘We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.

And now, much bigger: The same Nasa image taken in 2013 ‘The IPCC claims its models show a pause of 15 years can be expected. But that means that after only a very few years more, they will have to admit they are wrong.’ Others are more cautious. Dr Ed Hawkins, of Reading University, drew the graph published by The Mail on Sunday in March showing how far world temperatures have diverged from computer predictions. He admitted the cycles may have caused some of the recorded warming, but insisted that natural variability alone could not explain all of the temperature rise over the past 150 years. Nonetheless, the belief that summer Arctic ice is about to disappear remains an IPCC tenet, frequently flung in the face of critics who point to the pause. Yet there is mounting evidence that Arctic ice levels are cyclical. Data uncovered by climate historians show that there was a massive melt in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by intense re-freezes that ended only in 1979 – the year the IPCC says that shrinking began. Professor Curry said the ice’s behaviour over the next five years would be crucial, both for understanding the climate and for future policy. ‘Arctic sea ice is the indicator to watch,’ she said. "Sea levels are rising".------But they have been rising since the last ice age and there is no increase in sea level rise............" Global temperatures are rising"..........No they are not........ "100 year weather events are happening with greater frequency"...........No evidence at all for this....... "There are dozens of other indicators that I could mention".......Oh really because nothing you say is true up to now......." The overwhelming evidence supports the fact that climate change is real"...........No , not evidence, only climate models. - ChiMark, Chicago, United States, 8/9/2013 18:50...Very impressive how you are able to deliver statements with such eloquence that are not true. You have clearly been giving climate alarmism your fullest attention. : http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html#ixzz2eKbihz4y Don Shaw

H. YEAR OVER YEAR ARCTIC ICE LOSS/GAIN So far 2013 has seen dramatic gain in Arctic ice area over last year when the ice loss was increased by a storm which broke up the ice. However, it is noteworthy that ice area varies significantly from year to year. See below as MSM won't report this years significant increase. While the long term trend has been down, maybe the President was wrong when he exaggerates ice loss in the Arctic http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/screenhunter_83-sep-02-09-58.jpg Don Shaw

I. CLIMATE CHANGE RECONSIDERED II TO BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 17

BY JIM LAKELY AUGUST 29, 2013

The Heartland Institute and the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) have been hard at work since 2011 on a new edition of Climate Change Reconsidered. The first volume of the new report, titled Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science, will be released in digital form in September to coincide with the release of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report. A second volume on “Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities” is slated for release in March or April 2014. Heartland is planning to hold a press conference in Chicago on Sept. 17 at which it will announce the findings of the 1,200-plus-page report and release an executive summary. The organization will also host a “book launch luncheon” on Sept. 18 in the Heartland Institute library featuring three of the report’s lead authors. More details of the unveiling of Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science, will be released in the coming weeks. The research effort has been led by Craig Idso, Ph.D., chairman of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change; Robert Carter, Ph.D., Former Head of the School of Earth Sciences, James Cook University (Australia), and S. Fred Singer, Ph.D., president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project and professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia. An international team of lead authors, section authors, contributors, and reviewers is participating in the effort. The first two volumes published in the Climate Change Reconsidered series, in 2009 and 2011, were widely recognized as the most comprehensive and authoritative critiques of the alarmist reports of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Reviews and the complete texts of both volumes are available here and here. In June, a division of the Chinese Academy of Sciences published a Chinese translation and condensed edition of the two volumes. http://blog.heartland.org/2013/08/events-taking-shape-surrounding-release-of-climate-change-reconsidered-ii/

J. NINO AND SUBSETS PDO AND AMO CONTROL THE EARTH'S TEMPERATURES. THEY ARE CYCLICAL CAUSING BOTH WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES AS SEEN IN THIS SEQUENCE OF CHARTS FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. 

J Frank 

http://www.eandp-environment.net/Environment/Env020701.pdf

L. CLAIM: LET’S PUT BATTERIES ON WIND AND SOLAR FARMS Posted on September 9, 2013 by Anthony Watts From Stanford University

Stanford scientists calculate the energy required to store wind and solar power on the grid Renewable energy holds the promise of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. But there are times when solar and wind farms generate more electricity than is needed by consumers. Storing that

surplus energy in batteries for later use seems like an obvious solution, but a new study from Stanford University suggests that might not always be the case. “We looked at batteries and other promising technologies for storing solar and wind energy on the electrical grid,” said Charles Barnhart, the lead author of the study and a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford’s Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP). http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/09/claim-lets-put-batteries-on-wind-and-solar-farms/#more-93465

M. ATMOSPHERE’S EMISSION FINGERPRINT AFFECTED BY HOW CLOUDS ARE STACKED** Posted on August 31, 2013 by Anthony Watts

earth (Photo credit: Dreaming in the deep south)

From AGU highlights: Clouds, which can absorb or reflect incoming radiation and affect the amount of radiation escaping from Earth’s atmosphere, remain the greatest source of uncertainty in global climate modeling. By combining space-based observations with climate models, researchers are able to derive baseline spectral signals, called spectral fingerprints, of how changes in the physical properties of the Earth’s atmosphere, such as the concentration of carbon dioxide or the relative humidity, affect the amount of radiation escaping from the top of the atmosphere. Researchers can then use these spectral fingerprints to attribute changes in the observed top-of-atmosphere radiation to changes in individual atmospheric properties. However, recent research has shown that the way global climate models represent the interactions between clouds and radiation can complicate the process of making these spectral fingerprints. Researchers are finding that what matters is not only the presence or absence of clouds at each location represented in the model but also how the clouds are stacked vertically within each model grid. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/31/atmospheres-emission-fingerprint-affected-by-how-clouds-are-stacked/#more-92802 

N. A ‘HEAD SCRATCHER’ – NO ATLANTIC HURRICANE BY AUGUST IN FIRST TIME IN 11 YEARS** Posted on August 30, 2013 by Anthony Watts

From his vantage point high above the earth in the International Space Station, Astronaut Ed Lu captured this broad view of Hurricane Isabel. The image, ISS007-E-14750, was taken with a 50

mm lens on a digital camera. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Where are all the hurricanes Al Gore, Bill McKibben, Joe Romm, and Brad Johnson say are supposed to happen due to global warming? Article includes most recent forecast from Klotzbach and Gray Bloomberg News: August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal. Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts. “At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,” Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday. The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years.html http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/30/a-head-scratcher-no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years/#more-92771

O. ATI FILES SUIT TO COMPEL THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA TO PRODUCE RECORDS RELATED TO SO-CALLED “HOCKEY STICK” GLOBAL WARMING RESEARCH Posted on September 9, 2013 by Anthony Watts For Immediate Release – September 10, 2013 On Friday, September 6th, the American Tradition Institute (ATI), a non-profit public policy organization, along with counsel from the Free Market Environmental Law Clinic (FMELC), filed a lawsuit seeking to compel the University of Arizona (U of A) to produce public records relating to what the London Telegraph’s Christopher Booker called “the worst scientific scandal

of our generation”. These records are emails relating to the notorious global warming “Hockey Stick”, and the group that made it famous, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IPCC is presently in the news for its latest in a running series of proclamations of looming climate catastrophe, and a now ritual proclamation of even greater certainty that economic activity is to blame. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/09/ati-files-suit-to-compel-the-university-of-arizona-to-produce-records-related-to-so-called-hockey-stick-global-warming-research/#more-93499

P. UAH V5.6 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE UPDATE FOR AUGUST, 2013: +0.16 DEG. C September 10th, 2013 Sorry for the late temperature update, I’ve been at a NASA AMSR meeting in California. The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August, 2013 is +0.16 deg. C (click for large version):

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 20 months are: YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS 2012 1 -0.145 -0.088 -0.203 -0.245 2012 2 -0.140 -0.016 -0.263 -0.326 2012 3 +0.033 +0.064 +0.002 -0.238 2012 4 +0.230 +0.346 +0.114 -0.251 2012 5 +0.178 +0.338 +0.018 -0.102 2012 6 +0.244 +0.378 +0.111 -0.016 2012 7 +0.149 +0.263 +0.035 +0.146 2012 8 +0.210 +0.195 +0.225 +0.069

2012 9 +0.369 +0.376 +0.361 +0.174 2012 10 +0.367 +0.326 +0.409 +0.155 2012 11 +0.305 +0.319 +0.292 +0.209 2012 12 +0.229 +0.153 +0.305 +0.199 2013 1 +0.496 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387 2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195 2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243 2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165 2013 5 +0.083 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112 2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220 2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.212 +0.074 2013 8 +0.158 +0.107 +0.208 +0.009 Note: In the previous version (v5.5, still provided to NOAA due to contract with NCDC) the temps are slightly cooler, probably due to the uncorrected diurnal drift of NOAA-18. Recall that in v5.6, we include METOP-A and NOAA-19, and since June they are the only two satellites in the v5.6 dataset whereas v5.5 does not include METOP-A and NOAA-19. Names of popular data files: uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt uahncdc_mt_5.6.txt uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt Regards George