ENVISION TOMORROWUPDATES AND INDICATORS

What is Envision Tomorrow?

Suite of planning tools: GIS Analysis Tools Prototype Builder

Return on Investment (ROI) model Scenario Builder

Extension for ArcGIS Performance Models

Why Use Scenario Planning?

Weigh choices against consequences

Test policy options quickly Prepare for uncertainty Develop strategies to

optimize outcomes

Scenario Building Process

Create Building & Development

Types

Scenario Development

EvaluationBaseline Analysis

Regional “Balance” Analysis

Jobs-Housing balance impacts transportation

GIS tool to identify imbalanced areas Candidates for detailed

scenarios

Redevelopment Readiness Analysis A tool to assess which parcels within a study area

may be candidates for redevelopment in the short term.

Two methods: Low Hanging Fruit: isolate the bottom quartile of total

value per acre (land + improvement) Timing: estimate the parcels that are ready today, or

within 5-10 years based on the age of the structure and the value of the land and a depreciation schedule.

Building-Level Financial Analysis Envision Tomorrow

Prototype Builder

Estimate ROI (Return on Investment) based on local costs and rents/sales prices

Gap Financing Tools

Test Financial Performance of Zoning Alternatives

Baseline Optimal ChangeHeight 4 Stories 6 Stories +2Parking Spaces 127 115 -10%Land Used 43,000 Square Ft 43,000 Square Ft 0%Density 31 DU / Acre 63 DU / Acre +103%Floor Area Ratio 1.1 2.0 +79%Project Value $17.3 Million $23.5 Million +35%Unit Cost $519,272 $369,590 -29%

Baseline4 story Mixed Use with existing parking

Optimal6 story Mixed Use with lower parking requirements

Create Prototype Buildings

Why start with buildings? Easily modeled & lots of existing data

Density and Design Rents and Sales Prices Costs and Affordability Energy and Water Use Fiscal Impacts

Physical Form Height Unit sizes Parking configurations

Financial Reality Rents / sales prices Construction costs Land costs

Feasible?

Development Type MixA Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a “Place”

Town Center

Medium-Density

Residential

Single-Family Residential

Real-time Scenario Building and Evaluation

Select

Paint

See Changes in Real Time

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Land consumption & impact

Vacant and redevelopment lands Measure development impact to sensitive

lands (user defined sensitive areas) Infill and Redevelopment

Percentage of growth on vacant lands or accommodated through infill

Housing Unit type mix, FAR, density, tenure Cost and affordability (rents / sales prices) Match to estimated future housing

demand Employment

Industry mix, FAR and density Employment wage

Jobs-Housing Balance

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Square footage of new

buildings by type Land use mix (entropy score)

Value of new buildings Sales and property tax revenues Value of required subsidy

Household and Population Population and density Average household size Average household income

Based on new housing costs

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Parking spaces, area and costs Lot coverage and impervious

surface Private landscaping and open

space Estimated new street

characteristics New street length Network and intersection

density

Building-Level Sustainability Indicators Building energy use Carbon emissions from

energy use Landscaping water

consumption Internal building water

consumption Solid waste generated

Fiscal Impact Modeling A Modified Version of the Federal “FIT”

Fiscal Impact Model

Estimate and compare county and municipal revenues and costs from scenarios

Uses building values and infrastructure costs from Envision Tomorrow to capture explicit differences in revenues and costs from different land use types

Indicators: Revenue Cost Ratio New Revenues (Property, Income and

Sales Taxes) New Costs (Infrastructure, O&M and

Services)

Revenues vs. Expenditures

Net Annual Revenue

Proximity Measures (Walkable Access) Calculate the

proportion of development in a scenario that is within walking distance to any amenity, such as a school or park

Example: 50% of residents are

within a 10 minute walk to a park

AffordabilityHousing + Transportation + Energy Costs

Assess trade-offs Trade higher housing costs for lower

transportation costs?

Shared Parking Opportunity

Increases in walking combined with mixing uses presents an opportunity for shared parking

Transportation Indicators Household Vehicle Miles

Traveled Trips by Mode

Auto Transit Walk Bike

Cost of Transportation (Auto and Transit)

Health Benefits of Increased Walking

Changes is Transportation Air Pollutants

Household Travel App

Predicts travel behavior based on land use variables

Household VMT

Auto trips Walk trips Transit trips Bike trips

70 Output Fields Calculatedfor Each “Neighborhood” Boundary

Variable GIS Field NameHousehold

Variables

Household Size TOT_AVG_HH_SIZE

Household Income TOT_AVG_HH_INC

Number of Employed Workers in the Household TOT_AVG_HH_WORKERS

Accessibility Variab

les

Activity Density within ¼, ½, and 1 milesACTDENQTRMIACTDENHALFMIACTDEN1MI

Job-Population Balance within ¼, ½, and 1 milesJOBPOPBALQTRMIJOBPOPBALHALFMIJOBPOPBAL1MI

Land Use Entropy (Mix) within ¼, ½, and 1 milesENTROPYQTRMIENTROPYHALFMIENTROPY1MI

Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 10, 20 and 30 Minute Auto Trip

PCTREGEMP10MINAPCTREGEMP20MINAPCTREGEMP30MINA

Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 30 Minute Transit Trip PCTREGEMP30MINT

Intersection Density within ¼, ½, and 1 milesINTDENQTRMIINTDENHALFMIINTDEN1MI

Percent of 4-way Intersections within ¼, ½, and 1 milesPCT4WAYINTQTRMIPCT4WAYINTHALFMIPCT4WAYINT1MI

Transit Stop Density within ¼, ½, and 1 milesTRANSSTOPDENQTRMITRANSSTOPDENHALFMITRANSSTOPDEN1MI

Rail Stops within a ½ mile RAILTRANSSTOPHALFMI

Activity Density (Jobs + Pop) / Developed Area

Employment Access Within 10 minute auto trip

Job Population Balance1-ABS(EMP-0.2*POP)/(EMP+0.2*POP)

Intersection DensityWithin a quarter mile

Percent 4-Way IntersectionsWithin a quarter mile

Transit Stop DensityWithin a quarter mile

Rail Stop DensityWithin a quarter mile

Land Use MixWithin a quarter mile

HH VMT

Vehicle Trips

Walk Trips

Bike Trips

Transit Trips

Web-based ET+In Development

As easy as Google Maps

No costly licenses or fast computers required for users

Many uses: Real-time zoning

administration Direct local feedback

on forecasts or plans Live workshops with

technical audience Scenario development

on mobile deviceshttp://et.tacc.utexas.edu/etmap.html