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Page 1: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

1 1

February 2018

Equity story

Page 2: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

2

(2)

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

2020e

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

Mainland GDP and unemployment rate Per cent

Mainland business investments 1Q08=100, three quarters moving average

Housing prices Index, 2006=100

2 Source: Statistics Norway, Eiendomsverdi, Real Estate Norway, Finance Norway, Datastream/DNB Markets

Positive macroeconomic development in Norway - decline in housing prices slowing down

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

2020e

Mainland GDP, YoY

Unemployment rate

Household disposable income, NOK billion (rhs)

Average housing prices (lhs)

Page 3: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

3

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Market value of fund (lhs)

Net cash flow from oil-related industries (rhs)

Financial returns incl. dividends (rhs)

Norwegian sovereign wealth fund 2001-2017

National budget’s structural non-oil deficit NOK billion (2017 prices)

3 *Nov. 2017

Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance, Norges Bank

Norway is in a strong financial position – Use of fiscal and monetary policy measures reduces volatility

*

NOK billion NOK billion

4 per cent return on the fund capital

Structural non-oil deficit

71

0

100

200

400

300

2005 2002 2008 2011 2014 2017

Page 4: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

4

DNB is the market leader in Norway

1) Includes the public sector

Source: Statistics Norway and Finance Norway

Retail market

Corporate market

DNB's market shares

1) Includes the public sector.

Source: Statistics Norway and Finance Norway

Loans fromfinancial institutions

25%

Deposits

29%

Policyholders'funds

43%

Mutual fundinvestments

33%

Loans fromfinancial institutions

23%

Deposits

38%

Policyholders'funds 1)

20%

Mutual fundinvestments

25%

Page 5: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

5

6%

of payments are made in

cash

No. 1

global ICT infrastructure

91%

of Norwegians use online

banking services

96%

of Norwegians use the

Internet

Norway is a digital front runner – enabling change

5

Page 6: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

220

198 187

156

141

116

57 57

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

73 83 85 86 83 92 83 80

1 2

9 49

113

156 200

244

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Desktop Mobile

Mobile platform driving growth in digital banking Annual visits to our digital platforms – million

Transforming our branch network Number of branch offices

6

We have transformed our retail distribution through digitalisation

Page 7: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

7

Transforming the way we do business – building future infrastructure, digital services and platforms

The illustration is conceptual

Core systems

Cloud platform with applications

Personal advisers Mobile banking New services APIs

Page 8: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

8

CET1 ratio* above the target level for year-end 2017 Per cent

Leverage ratio is well above the requirement Per cent at year-end 2017

*Based on transitional rules

DNB is in a new phase after years of capital build-up – Well positioned for future regulatory changes

CET1 ratio

target

CET1 ratio

31 Dec. 2017

Management buffer ~ 1.0

Pillar 2 ~ 1.6

Countercyclical buffer ~ 1.6

General capital requirement 12.0

16.4 ~ 16.1

5.2

4.6 4.4

DNB Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5

7.2

5.2 5.2

Page 9: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

2.10

2.70

3.80

4.50

5.70

7.10

25% 25% 30%

30%

50%

73%

15

35

55

75

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Dividend per share (lhs) Total payout ratio (rhs)

Dividend per share (NOK) Payout ratio (per cent)

Dividend per share and payout ratio

Cash dividend of 55 per cent and total

distribution to shareholders of 73 per

cent of profits in 2017

Completed buy-backs for 1.0 per cent of

registered shares 1) 2) and announced a

third programme for 0.5 per cent in

accordance with the authorisation given

at the Annual General Meeting in April

2017

The proposed dividend of NOK 1.5

billion from DNB Livsforsikring (75 per

cent of profits) will strengthen DNB’s

total payout capacity from April 2018

9

1) Including the agreed share to be redeemed by the Norwegian government to keep its holding unchanged at 34 per cent

2) The Norwegian FSA has approved the authorisation, provided that the targeted capital level is met and that the sum of the

amounts spent on dividends and the repurchase of shares does not exceed 75 per cent of the annual profit for 2016

Dividend per share increased by 25 per cent to NOK 7.10

Page 10: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

Distribution of exposure at default by industry segment 4Q 2017

Total income split 4Q 2017

10

DNB portfolio and income split

>80 per cent of income from Norway

Commercial real estate

10 %

Shipping

5 %

Oil, gas and offshore

6 %

Oil, gas and offshore 2)

6 %

Power and renewables

2 %

Healthcare

2 %

Public sector 4)

1 %

Fishing and fish

farming

2 % Trade

3 %

Manufacturing

5 %

Technology, media

and telecom

2 %

Residential property

5 % Residential property 3)

5 %

Mortgages and other

exposures, personal

customers **)

54 %

Net interest

income

69 %

Net

Commission

and fee

17 %

Net gains on

financial

instruments at

fair value

9 %

Other income

5 %

Page 11: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

ROE

YTD

3Q2017

Core business

initiatives

Strategic business

initiatives

Cost initiatives Cost of risk

run rate

~17 bps **

ROE 2019

~10.6%*

>12.0%

60-80 bps

30-50 bps

50-70 bps

Bridge to ROE

11

A return on equity above 12 per cent remains our main priority > 12 per cent towards year-end 2019

*Adjustments for MTM effects and gain from the demerger of Vipps

**Basis points of EAD

INVESTMENT BANKING

CUSTOMER INCOME FROM DNB MARKETS

DEFINED CONTRIBUTION AND ASSET MANAGEMENT

PAYMENT INITIATIVES

STRATEGIC BUSINESS INITIATIVES

NON-LIFE INSURANCE

Page 12: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI

1 435 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 438 1 431 1 439

926 912 914 924 913 953 957 952 949

4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17

Performing loans

Deposits

706

266

455

747

291

410

Personal customers SMEs Large corporates and

international customers

31 Dec. 2016 31 Dec. 2017

LCI rebalancing continued at a high pace in 4Q. Expected to continue at a slower pace in 2018

The deposits-to-loans ratio was slightly up

Lending growth was 1.5 per cent in 2017. Expected growth of 3-4 per cent in 2018

Loans per customer segment 1)

NOK billion

Average loans and deposits in the customer segments 1)

NOK billion

12 1) Excluding Baltics

Page 13: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

13

Stable margins over time despite low interest rate environment – Optimising margins in a competitive market

*Source: Norges Bank

Net interest margin and key policy rate Per cent

Positive outlook for the key policy rate provides

greater flexibility

13

A large portion of our portfolio can be repriced

90% of mortgages and 30% of SME loan book can

be repriced

A marginal portion of the deposit book in NOK

is fixed-rate, whereas 75% of total NOK deposits

can be repriced

SMEs and large corporates have individually priced

margins

1.46 1.37

1.46 1.49

0.50 0.50

0.75

1.45

Net interest margin (per cent) Key policy rate* (per cent)

Page 14: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

201720162015201420132012

IBD fees Other customer revenues Markets Asset management and defined contribution Non-life insurance

Revenues from strategic business initiatives have increased by 41% since 2012 NOK billion

14

Revenue growth from strategic business initiatives will build return on equity

CAGR

7.2%

5.6 5.7

6.5

7.2 7.5

7.9

Page 15: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

15

Total income Total costs C/I (%)

4.7

3.0

3.4

2.8 2.9

3.2

DNB Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 5 Peer 4 Peer 3

Reduced cost/income ratio from 56% to 44% over the past 10 years

Leading in revenue per FTE

Cost/income NOK billion

Revenue per FTE* NOK million, 2016

*Source: Arctic Securities

Cost efficiency is important to remain competitive in a changing landscape

34

38 40

42 42

47

49

54 52 51

19 19 19 20 21

22 21 21

2008 2014 2009 2013 2012 2010 2015 2011 2016

44,2%

2017

22 23

Page 16: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

Total group loan portfolio – EAD NOK 1 877 billion As at 31 December 2017

Reduced exposure in cyclical industries Exposure at default, NOK billion

*Large Corporates & International

Portfolio quality: Rebalancing in LCI* results in a less cyclical portfolio – 2.2 per cent of DNB’s portfolio is exposed to the offshore industry

166

134

109

88

Oil, gas and offshore

Shipping

2015 2017

2015 2017

16

Mortgages and

other exposures,

personal customers

52 %

Commercial real

estate

10 %

Residential property

5 %

Shipping

5 %

Manufacturing

4 %

Oil, gas and

oilfield services

4 %

Offshore

2 %

Other corporate

customers

18 %

Page 17: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

17

Impairment and non-performing loans

Impairment guiding 2016-2018

Reduction in non-performing and doubtful loans Oppdatert 30/1

13 982 14 928

20 685

22 589

25 654

23 078 23 567

19 172

17 277

0.37 0.31

0.61 0.56

0.45

0.15 0.15 0.22

0.10

31 Dec. 2015 31 March 2016 30 Sept. 2016 30 Sept. 2017 30 June 2016 31 Dec. 2016 31 March 2017 30 June 2017 31 Dec. 2017

Net non-performing and net doubtful loans and guarantees (NOK million)

Total impairment in relation to average volumes, annualised

Page 18: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

81

103

114 118

133

150

169

184 194

10.6 %

13.6 %

11.4 % 11.7 %

13.1 % 13.8 %

14.5 %

10.1 % 10.8 %

>12%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average equity (lhs) ROE ROE ambition

Return on equity Per cent

18

ROE > 12 per cent towards year-end 2019

NOK billion

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19

The road ahead: Financial ambitions towards year-end 2019

*Based on transitional rules

> 50 per cent payout ratio

Dividend policy

> 12 per cent ROE

Overriding target

< 40 per cent C/I ratio

Key performance indicator

~16.1 per cent CET1 ratio*

as capital level

Page 20: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

Top 20 shareholders 3Q17 to 4Q17

Ownership according to nationality as at 31 December 2017

20

The owners of shares in nominee accounts are determined on the basis of third-party analyses.

1) DNB has completed two buy-back programmes totalling 1 per cent of outstanding shares. According to an agreement,

the Norwegian government will redeem shares on a proportional basis so that its current holding will remain at 34 per cent.

Shareholder distribution

Shares in

1 000

Ownership

in per cent

Change

from 3Q17

Norwegian government/Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries1) 553 792 34.2 0.0

DNB Savings Bank Foundation 130 001 8.0 0.0

Folketrygdfondet 99 893 6.2 -2.2

Fidelity International 30 055 1.9 1.6

BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 28 526 1.8 1.0

The Vanguard Group, Inc. 27 252 1.7 3.9

Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH 26 705 1.7 7.8

Schroder Investment Management Ltd. (SIM) 18 908 1.2 -10.1

Capital World Investors 18 043 1.1 4.9

MFS Investment Management 16 538 1.0 -1.1

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. 15 846 1.0 -4.1

Storebrand Kapitalforvaltning AS 15 646 1.0 -3.5

KLP Forsikring 15 395 1.0 -3.9

DNB Asset Management AS 14 467 0.9 -0.1

Janus Henderson Investors 13 489 0.8 0.8

SAFE Investment Company Limited 13 217 0.8 -1.1

State Street Global Advisors (US) 12 900 0.8 2.5

Nordea Funds Oy 11 209 0.7 -2.1

Edinburgh Partners Limited 11 086 0.7 -3.1

Columbia Threadneedle Investments (UK) 11 067 0.7 4.6

Total largest shareholders 1 084 035 67.0

Other shareholders 534 014 33.0

Total 1 618 049 100.0

Norwegian government/Ministry

of Trade, Industry and Fisheries

34.2%

DNB Savings Bank Foundation

8.0%

Other Norwegian 15.0%

US 18.7%

UK 8.9%

Luxembourg 4.8%

Other international 10.3%

Norwegian

investors:

57%

International

investors:

43%

Page 21: Equity story - DNB · Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI 1 435 1 438 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 431 1 439 926 914 912 924 913 953

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