equity story - dnb · strong growth for personal customers and smes, while rebalancing continues in...
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February 2018
Equity story
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(2)
(1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
2 400
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018e
2019e
2020e
Mainland GDP and unemployment rate Per cent
Mainland business investments 1Q08=100, three quarters moving average
Housing prices Index, 2006=100
2 Source: Statistics Norway, Eiendomsverdi, Real Estate Norway, Finance Norway, Datastream/DNB Markets
Positive macroeconomic development in Norway - decline in housing prices slowing down
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
Mainland GDP, YoY
Unemployment rate
Household disposable income, NOK billion (rhs)
Average housing prices (lhs)
3
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Market value of fund (lhs)
Net cash flow from oil-related industries (rhs)
Financial returns incl. dividends (rhs)
Norwegian sovereign wealth fund 2001-2017
National budget’s structural non-oil deficit NOK billion (2017 prices)
3 *Nov. 2017
Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance, Norges Bank
Norway is in a strong financial position – Use of fiscal and monetary policy measures reduces volatility
*
NOK billion NOK billion
4 per cent return on the fund capital
Structural non-oil deficit
71
0
100
200
400
300
2005 2002 2008 2011 2014 2017
4
DNB is the market leader in Norway
1) Includes the public sector
Source: Statistics Norway and Finance Norway
Retail market
Corporate market
DNB's market shares
1) Includes the public sector.
Source: Statistics Norway and Finance Norway
Loans fromfinancial institutions
25%
Deposits
29%
Policyholders'funds
43%
Mutual fundinvestments
33%
Loans fromfinancial institutions
23%
Deposits
38%
Policyholders'funds 1)
20%
Mutual fundinvestments
25%
5
6%
of payments are made in
cash
No. 1
global ICT infrastructure
91%
of Norwegians use online
banking services
96%
of Norwegians use the
Internet
Norway is a digital front runner – enabling change
5
220
198 187
156
141
116
57 57
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
73 83 85 86 83 92 83 80
1 2
9 49
113
156 200
244
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Desktop Mobile
Mobile platform driving growth in digital banking Annual visits to our digital platforms – million
Transforming our branch network Number of branch offices
6
We have transformed our retail distribution through digitalisation
7
Transforming the way we do business – building future infrastructure, digital services and platforms
The illustration is conceptual
Core systems
Cloud platform with applications
Personal advisers Mobile banking New services APIs
8
CET1 ratio* above the target level for year-end 2017 Per cent
Leverage ratio is well above the requirement Per cent at year-end 2017
*Based on transitional rules
DNB is in a new phase after years of capital build-up – Well positioned for future regulatory changes
CET1 ratio
target
CET1 ratio
31 Dec. 2017
Management buffer ~ 1.0
Pillar 2 ~ 1.6
Countercyclical buffer ~ 1.6
General capital requirement 12.0
16.4 ~ 16.1
5.2
4.6 4.4
DNB Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5
7.2
5.2 5.2
2.10
2.70
3.80
4.50
5.70
7.10
25% 25% 30%
30%
50%
73%
15
35
55
75
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dividend per share (lhs) Total payout ratio (rhs)
Dividend per share (NOK) Payout ratio (per cent)
Dividend per share and payout ratio
Cash dividend of 55 per cent and total
distribution to shareholders of 73 per
cent of profits in 2017
Completed buy-backs for 1.0 per cent of
registered shares 1) 2) and announced a
third programme for 0.5 per cent in
accordance with the authorisation given
at the Annual General Meeting in April
2017
The proposed dividend of NOK 1.5
billion from DNB Livsforsikring (75 per
cent of profits) will strengthen DNB’s
total payout capacity from April 2018
9
1) Including the agreed share to be redeemed by the Norwegian government to keep its holding unchanged at 34 per cent
2) The Norwegian FSA has approved the authorisation, provided that the targeted capital level is met and that the sum of the
amounts spent on dividends and the repurchase of shares does not exceed 75 per cent of the annual profit for 2016
Dividend per share increased by 25 per cent to NOK 7.10
Distribution of exposure at default by industry segment 4Q 2017
Total income split 4Q 2017
10
DNB portfolio and income split
>80 per cent of income from Norway
Commercial real estate
10 %
Shipping
5 %
Oil, gas and offshore
6 %
Oil, gas and offshore 2)
6 %
Power and renewables
2 %
Healthcare
2 %
Public sector 4)
1 %
Fishing and fish
farming
2 % Trade
3 %
Manufacturing
5 %
Technology, media
and telecom
2 %
Residential property
5 % Residential property 3)
5 %
Mortgages and other
exposures, personal
customers **)
54 %
Net interest
income
69 %
Net
Commission
and fee
17 %
Net gains on
financial
instruments at
fair value
9 %
Other income
5 %
ROE
YTD
3Q2017
Core business
initiatives
Strategic business
initiatives
Cost initiatives Cost of risk
run rate
~17 bps **
ROE 2019
~10.6%*
>12.0%
60-80 bps
30-50 bps
50-70 bps
Bridge to ROE
11
A return on equity above 12 per cent remains our main priority > 12 per cent towards year-end 2019
*Adjustments for MTM effects and gain from the demerger of Vipps
**Basis points of EAD
INVESTMENT BANKING
CUSTOMER INCOME FROM DNB MARKETS
DEFINED CONTRIBUTION AND ASSET MANAGEMENT
PAYMENT INITIATIVES
STRATEGIC BUSINESS INITIATIVES
NON-LIFE INSURANCE
Strong growth for personal customers and SMEs, while rebalancing continues in LCI
1 435 1 412 1 412 1 424 1 417 1 410 1 438 1 431 1 439
926 912 914 924 913 953 957 952 949
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17
Performing loans
Deposits
706
266
455
747
291
410
Personal customers SMEs Large corporates and
international customers
31 Dec. 2016 31 Dec. 2017
LCI rebalancing continued at a high pace in 4Q. Expected to continue at a slower pace in 2018
The deposits-to-loans ratio was slightly up
Lending growth was 1.5 per cent in 2017. Expected growth of 3-4 per cent in 2018
Loans per customer segment 1)
NOK billion
Average loans and deposits in the customer segments 1)
NOK billion
12 1) Excluding Baltics
13
Stable margins over time despite low interest rate environment – Optimising margins in a competitive market
*Source: Norges Bank
Net interest margin and key policy rate Per cent
Positive outlook for the key policy rate provides
greater flexibility
13
A large portion of our portfolio can be repriced
90% of mortgages and 30% of SME loan book can
be repriced
A marginal portion of the deposit book in NOK
is fixed-rate, whereas 75% of total NOK deposits
can be repriced
SMEs and large corporates have individually priced
margins
1.46 1.37
1.46 1.49
0.50 0.50
0.75
1.45
Net interest margin (per cent) Key policy rate* (per cent)
201720162015201420132012
IBD fees Other customer revenues Markets Asset management and defined contribution Non-life insurance
Revenues from strategic business initiatives have increased by 41% since 2012 NOK billion
14
Revenue growth from strategic business initiatives will build return on equity
CAGR
7.2%
5.6 5.7
6.5
7.2 7.5
7.9
15
Total income Total costs C/I (%)
4.7
3.0
3.4
2.8 2.9
3.2
DNB Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 5 Peer 4 Peer 3
Reduced cost/income ratio from 56% to 44% over the past 10 years
Leading in revenue per FTE
Cost/income NOK billion
Revenue per FTE* NOK million, 2016
*Source: Arctic Securities
Cost efficiency is important to remain competitive in a changing landscape
34
38 40
42 42
47
49
54 52 51
19 19 19 20 21
22 21 21
2008 2014 2009 2013 2012 2010 2015 2011 2016
44,2%
2017
22 23
Total group loan portfolio – EAD NOK 1 877 billion As at 31 December 2017
Reduced exposure in cyclical industries Exposure at default, NOK billion
*Large Corporates & International
Portfolio quality: Rebalancing in LCI* results in a less cyclical portfolio – 2.2 per cent of DNB’s portfolio is exposed to the offshore industry
166
134
109
88
Oil, gas and offshore
Shipping
2015 2017
2015 2017
16
Mortgages and
other exposures,
personal customers
52 %
Commercial real
estate
10 %
Residential property
5 %
Shipping
5 %
Manufacturing
4 %
Oil, gas and
oilfield services
4 %
Offshore
2 %
Other corporate
customers
18 %
17
Impairment and non-performing loans
Impairment guiding 2016-2018
Reduction in non-performing and doubtful loans Oppdatert 30/1
13 982 14 928
20 685
22 589
25 654
23 078 23 567
19 172
17 277
0.37 0.31
0.61 0.56
0.45
0.15 0.15 0.22
0.10
31 Dec. 2015 31 March 2016 30 Sept. 2016 30 Sept. 2017 30 June 2016 31 Dec. 2016 31 March 2017 30 June 2017 31 Dec. 2017
Net non-performing and net doubtful loans and guarantees (NOK million)
Total impairment in relation to average volumes, annualised
81
103
114 118
133
150
169
184 194
10.6 %
13.6 %
11.4 % 11.7 %
13.1 % 13.8 %
14.5 %
10.1 % 10.8 %
>12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average equity (lhs) ROE ROE ambition
Return on equity Per cent
18
ROE > 12 per cent towards year-end 2019
NOK billion
19
The road ahead: Financial ambitions towards year-end 2019
*Based on transitional rules
> 50 per cent payout ratio
Dividend policy
> 12 per cent ROE
Overriding target
< 40 per cent C/I ratio
Key performance indicator
~16.1 per cent CET1 ratio*
as capital level
Top 20 shareholders 3Q17 to 4Q17
Ownership according to nationality as at 31 December 2017
20
The owners of shares in nominee accounts are determined on the basis of third-party analyses.
1) DNB has completed two buy-back programmes totalling 1 per cent of outstanding shares. According to an agreement,
the Norwegian government will redeem shares on a proportional basis so that its current holding will remain at 34 per cent.
Shareholder distribution
Shares in
1 000
Ownership
in per cent
Change
from 3Q17
Norwegian government/Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries1) 553 792 34.2 0.0
DNB Savings Bank Foundation 130 001 8.0 0.0
Folketrygdfondet 99 893 6.2 -2.2
Fidelity International 30 055 1.9 1.6
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 28 526 1.8 1.0
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 27 252 1.7 3.9
Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH 26 705 1.7 7.8
Schroder Investment Management Ltd. (SIM) 18 908 1.2 -10.1
Capital World Investors 18 043 1.1 4.9
MFS Investment Management 16 538 1.0 -1.1
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. 15 846 1.0 -4.1
Storebrand Kapitalforvaltning AS 15 646 1.0 -3.5
KLP Forsikring 15 395 1.0 -3.9
DNB Asset Management AS 14 467 0.9 -0.1
Janus Henderson Investors 13 489 0.8 0.8
SAFE Investment Company Limited 13 217 0.8 -1.1
State Street Global Advisors (US) 12 900 0.8 2.5
Nordea Funds Oy 11 209 0.7 -2.1
Edinburgh Partners Limited 11 086 0.7 -3.1
Columbia Threadneedle Investments (UK) 11 067 0.7 4.6
Total largest shareholders 1 084 035 67.0
Other shareholders 534 014 33.0
Total 1 618 049 100.0
Norwegian government/Ministry
of Trade, Industry and Fisheries
34.2%
DNB Savings Bank Foundation
8.0%
Other Norwegian 15.0%
US 18.7%
UK 8.9%
Luxembourg 4.8%
Other international 10.3%
Norwegian
investors:
57%
International
investors:
43%
21