erfurt, 12.-13. april 2012 - wordpress.com · 2012. 7. 6. · survey implementation characteristics...
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www.bicy.it
Erfurt, 12.-13. April 2012
www.bicy.it
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
OVERALL GOAL: Increase & improve cycling in Central Europe
Scope: Seven countries, 16 areas (14 cities), 3 years
Diverse Strategy:
Media, Resources, Events, Trainings;
Pilot Project Investments, Strategies;
Engaging political process, creating
dialogue & understanding;
Data Gathering & Scientific Analysis
» Policy Making
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
The analysis consists of three primary components:
• SWOT analysis
(Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats);
• Detailed Mobility Street Survey
• Indicators, consisting of official data and their relationships,
correlated with observed cycling levels
Outputs include:
• Key findings include modal share and cycling index
• Cyclists’ and Public Transport users’ experiences
• Future modal change by scenarios
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Our top findings
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
More bikeways = MORE CYCLING
Based on official indicator data, and modal split from survey.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
The message is clear:
Building more bikeways is required for
creating more cycling.
No matter the
causality,
to ignore
bikeways is
a HUGE
mistake.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Goal of low-cost, easily replicable method
Detailed mobility survey
(Mode share and more from quick one-page,
survey, 4-6 min. w/guide. Many cities need this!)
SWOT based on BYPAD
(Gets stakeholders talking, a key step)
Spatial GIS analysis with OpenStreetMap
(Free global geographic data in constant
development by hundreds of contributors)
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Survey Implementation Characteristics
Cost per survey < 2 euros
• Including gadgets and shirts (35%)
• Can be done by volunteers
Time to record approx 4.5 minutes
Minimum 48 hours field presence, 3 staff
Target of 1500 surveys for > 1000 usable
• Ensure 2%precision
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Survey can be replicated many places
Benefit of consistent method
(Allows unified approach, more reliable
comparisons and scientific findings)
Low-cost and quick
(Even volunteers can conduct this, if they are
committed to following the methodology)
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Corrections required…
A survey must be representative of the population.
An extensive effort was made to adjust the survey where necessary.
Weighting assumed that the demographics of the traveling public
are proportional to population demographics.
The age groups are important (young, adult, older).
Female to Male ratio is important.
How many surveys: more makes it better.
Where were they asked, and who was asked?
And what do we know about how many drivers, cyclists, etc.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Bias minimized, directed against cycling
Detailed methodology manual to prevent bias
Coverage Errors
Nonresponse Errors
Measurement Errors
Question wording errors
Question ordering errors
Interviewer Effect Errors
Incentivization Errors
Failed Reporting of Location/Time
Assumptions and Algorithms
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Sometimes there was a big difference
Not enough seniors.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Another example, one step closer..
Not enough
minors.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Female to male ratio was relatively good..
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Components of Survey:Residence Block
Customised to city.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Components of Survey:Travel Type Block
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Components of Survey:General Mobility Block
Components of Survey:General Mobility Block
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Components of Survey:Future Transport Block
Option to customise based on nature of inquiry.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Components of Survey:Personal Demographics Block
Not asked, simply recorded by survey administrator as perceived.
Note economic status ignored (cyclists are generally economically diverse,
question would be intrusive, but lose a dimension).
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Survey Modal Split
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Comparing survey cycling with official
This is a big
difference!
Only Partner Places with both survey and official data are shown.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Confidence of preliminary results?
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
So, who were these cyclists?
Typology by frequency & potential:
• Regular cyclists
• All cyclists
• Potential Regular cyclists
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
What is a regular cyclist?
Regular cyclists are the share of cyclists who use the
bicycle regularly for any reason, or who use it sometimes
for a regular purpose (work or shopping).
Different from modal split – here we are counting bicyclists,
not bicycling.
Modal split typically only uses an individual's largest trip.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Regular cyclists:
Higher than modal split
because we are looking
at travelers, not trips
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
What are our cyclists’ experiences?
Safety?
Weather?
Hills?
Bike theft?
Good bike routes?
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Do we cycle in the cold and rain?
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Do we cycle in the cold and rain?
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Yes, we can cycle in cold and rain..
Photo of a cyclist, by a cyclist. Bologna , Italy: blizzard, winter 2012. Photo by Jason Meggs.
www.bicy.it
Do we cycle with hills?
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
Is cycling of hills cultural, like cycling in the rain? San Francisco has a booming culture of cycling despite steep hills. “Despite its
hilly terrain, San Francisco has the fourth highest share of commuters who bike to work among major U.S. cities”.
Photo by Frank Chan, San Francisco Bicycle Coalition. (Page 100, Alliance for Walking & Cycling 2012 Benchmarking Report.)
www.bicy.it
Yes, but we cycle less with hills..
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.itPut another way, cycling climbs a hill..
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Can we find parking?
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Do we find a good daily bicycle route?
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Potential Cyclists
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
What is a Potential Regular Cyclist?
Potential Regular Cyclists are those people who
don’t ride regularly, but COULD ride because their
regular trip distance is small enough.
(All walkers are potential regular cyclists.)
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Based on distance to work and not refusing the cycle.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Predictions
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Predictions
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Predicting Future Cycling:
Survey Scenarios(Stated Preferences)
Modeled Relationships
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Survey preferences:
Admittedly predicting behavior based on respondents' beliefs is unreliable.
However, potential is likely under-reported for any who have not
experienced a cycling culture and city.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Survey scenarios: Based on what respondents say would get them cycling regularly
Scenario 1
Cycle ways / traffic limitations, ALL regular travel path;
Secure bicycle parking at all destinations
Scenario 2
All of the above, and:
Cycle hire facilities at all destinations
Scenario3
All of the above, and:
Bike path with sun, wind and rain protection
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Increased Cycling, per Scenario
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Predictions by Indicator Relationships
More bikeways, more
bikers.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
LARGER CITIES: a stronger relationship
(Cities defined as population >= 100K)
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
TOWNS: also stronger, different slope
(Towns defined as population < 100K)
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
More „bang for the buck“ in larger cities but still cost-effective for towns.
www.bicy.it
Projected Benefits
Carbon Reductions
Health Economic Benefits
Local economic benefits
And many more to be explored!
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Carbon reductions, three scenarios
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Health Economic BenefitsFoundational Data Košice Michalovce SNV Prague 5 Koper Velenje Budaörs
Population 233880 39426 37995 79038 51354 33175 28272
Bikeways km 7.2 1.5 5.7 2 6.3 5 4.4
Cycling Index (Raw) 3.0785E-05 3.8046E-05 0.00015002 2.53043E-05 0.000122678 0.000150716 0.000155631
Fit Line Slope (city & town) 254.6 158 158 254.6 158 158 158
Marked Bikeway €84,000 €66,000 €60,000 €91,000 €13,000 €13,000 €140,000
Physical Bikeway €200,000 €150,000 €224,000 €400,000 €137,500 €120,000 €160,000
Share Adult Workers 64.30% 64.50% 55.10% 62.70% 42.30% 50.10% 75.80%
Population Adult Workers 150385 25430 20935 49557 21723 16621 21430
Share Biker and Worker 4.00% 5.70% 4.60% 7.30% 10.60% 17.90% 5.50%
Share Regular Bike-Work 2.30% 3.40% 2.70% 3.00% 2.10% 3.30% 1.90%
Pop. Reg. Bike Workers 5379 1340 1026 2371 1078 1095 537
Note: assumptions were made for Prague, Koper and Budaörs to correct/provide their cost data
Note: only adult workers and cyclists (age 17-59) are counted here; work includes commuting to study (school)
Target 15% Košice Michalovce SNV Prague 5 Koper Velenje Budaörs
Target Cycling Index (Raw) 0.000529607 0.000772223 0.000928501 0.000496632 0.000939134 0.000891222 0.000984745
Target Total Bikeway km 123.9 30.4 35.3 39.3 48.2 29.6 27.8
New km needed 116.7 28.9 29.6 37.3 41.9 24.6 23.4
Cost, Marked Bikeways €9,799,811 €1,910,414 €1,774,703 €3,390,004 €545,067 €319,362 €3,281,699
Cost, Physical Bikeways €23,332,883 €4,341,851 €6,625,558 €14,901,115 €5,765,137 €2,947,956 €3,750,513
Middle cost (half each) €16,566,347 €3,126,132 €4,200,131 €9,145,560 €3,155,102 €1,633,659 €3,516,106
Formula: x2 = (y2-y1 + B*x1)/B where x1 is initial Cycling Index, x2 is target CI, y1 is initial cycling %, B is slope, y2 is target = 15%
Note: all these calculations assume that marked and physically separated bikeways have the same effect on cycling levels
HEAT (Target 15%) Košice Michalovce SNV Prague 5 Koper Velenje Budaörs
Current Bike Commuters 5379 1340 1026 2371 1078 1095 537
Future Bike Commuters 35082 5914 5699 11856 7703 4976 4241
Average Cycling/Day (hours) 0.801 1.003 0.73 0.488 0.564 0.841 0.365
Average Cycling (minutes) 48.06 60.18 43.8 29.28 33.84 50.46 21.9
Time to Max Uptake 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Mortality Rate (country) 420.56 420.56 420.56 365.35 298.67 298.67 365.35
Local Value of Statistical Life €1,574,000 €1,574,000 €1,574,000 €1,574,000 €1,574,000 €1,574,000 €1,574,000
Time period for benefits 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Discount Rate 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Average Annual Benefit €35,387,000 €6,421,000 €5,185,000 €6,591,000 €4,247,000 €3,406,000 €2,002,000
8-yr Total Benefit€283,092,000 €51,366,000 €41,481,000 €52,730,000 33,974,000 €27,247,000 €16,017,000
Max annual benefit (yr 11) €81,583,000 €14,803,000 €11,954,000 €15,196,000 €9,791,000 7,852,000 €4,616,000
Current Value, 8-yr avg Benefit €4,759,000 €3,843,000 €4,885,000 3,147,000 2,524,000 €1,484,000
Total 8-yr savings (current val)€209,808,000 €38,069,000 €30,743,000 €39,080,000 €25,179,000 €20,193,000 €11,871,000
Benefit-Cost Ratio 9.91:1 12.18:1 7.32:1 4.27:1 7.98:1 12.36:1 3.38:1
Indicator & Survey
Data
Target Bikeways
for 15% Cycling
Health Economic
Benefits of
Lives Saved Using WHO Europe's HEAT tool,
http://heatwalkingcycling.org/
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Bikeways for 15% target already
VERY cost effective!
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
This was a very conservative scenario:
Only regular commuters, ages 17-59 years
Assumed 5 years to build bikeways!
(we can do better!)
Only counted benefits for 8 years
(for 2020, based on Charter of Brussels -
yet maximum benefits reached in year 11)
Only for economic value of life (“all cause
mortality”) – ignoring MANY other benefits:
health, social, economic, environmental, etc.,
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Bikeways for 30% target even better!
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Other findings: effects of investmentsWhat’s the right balance: PT, Cycling and Walking?
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
Very important for modeling future scenarios , e.g., GHG emissions as well.
www.bicy.it
Dream Goals:OpenSource code
freely available
• Survey Analysis
• OSM processing
Online Tool produces BICY
report
•Automatically, any city
•Influence policy, real
results
Method replicated
widely, helps fill
bicycle data vacuum
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Publications
Unified, Low-Cost Analysis Framework for the Cycling Situation in Cities. Joerg Schweizer, Jason N. Meggs, Nazanin R. Dehkordi, Frederico Rupi, Anton Pashkevich. International Journal
of Civil and Environmental Engineering 6 2012. http://www.waset.org/journals/ijcee/v6/v6-56.pdf
An Analysis Framework to Assess Automobile, Public Transport and bicycle usage
between West and East Europe: A Comparative Survey. Joerg Schweizer, Jason N. Meggs,
Nazanin R. Dehkordi, Federico Rupi, Anton Pashkevich
Can PRT overcome the conflicts between public transport and cycling?J. Meggs, F. Rupi, J. Schweizer
Results of the BICY project: modeling cycling response to infrastructure
investments. Joerg Schweizer, Jason N. Meggs, Nazanin R. Dehkordi, Federico Rupi, Anton Pashkevich .
Cycling Research International, Vol 2 (2012), (forthcoming).
Bicycle City or Transit City? Effects and Limits of Sustainable Transport Investment
Choices. Meggs, J, Schweizer, J (forthcoming)
Cost-Benefit Analyses of Prospective New Bikeways in Central Europe: Applications
of the BICY Methodology. Meggs, J, Schweizer, J (forthcoming)
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Our reports will
be online!
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
CONCLUSION:
Build it and they will come.
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
CONFERENCE FINALE:
Prague, January 17, 2013
CULTURE CHANGE:
INCREASING CYCLING IN CENTRAL EUROPE
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF
www.bicy.it
Current Focus: TRANSNATIONAL
STRATEGY
THANK YOU!Questions welcome, now and in the future:
Jason N. Meggs (presenting), Joerg Schweizer
DICAM – Transport Engineering Group
University of Bologna
[email protected] joerg [email protected]
+39 051 207 3338 (office)
+39 333 1565 787 (mobile)
skype: jasonmeggs joerg.schweizer.distart
Jason Meggs, Joerg Schweizer - Velo-City Global, Vancouver; June 27, 2012This project implemented via the Central Europe Programme co-financed by ERDF