eric andersen focusing on where others arent
TRANSCRIPT
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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5ta kddukiPpredh vkiuf edvfstedh `ldhrfss
• Kprei 0 , ?=; 3 • Iks Rfhks, DR
Bl`usedh Xafrf Ltafrs Krfd―tFre` Kdcfrsfd, Xfstfrd Ptkdckrc
www.RkiufEdvfstedh@ldhrfss.`ln
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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• Cevfrsebefc ildh/salrt budc weta 3= ildh plseteldskdc 6=+ salrt plsetelds
• Xf ken tl prlvecf `kpetki kpprf`ekteld lvfr kildh-tfrn pfrelc
• Kiehdfc ed`fdtevfs ‐ ;==% lb fnpilyffs dft wlrta edvfstfc ed taf budc
• Dl pfrsldki k``ludts krf kiilwfc ‐ ;/3 lb `kpetki es brln fnpilyff kdc ennfcektf bkneiy ‐ Dl aeccfd bffs tl I]s
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Edvfstnfdt Bl`us
• @lnpkdefs weta nkrjft `kpetkiezktelds ofilw$6==nn
• Vdcfrbliilwfc `lnpkdefs weta iettif tl dlsfii-secf `lvfrkhf
‐ Dl ldf es fcu`ktedh taf nkrjft• 5=% lb lur wlrj es bl`usfc ld clwdsecf tl
kvlec ilssfs
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Edvfstnfdt Ecfks
• Xf `kst k wecf dft ed lur sfkr`a blr vkiuf ‐ ]rlpreftkry s`rffds ‐ Cktkoksf lb 46== sf`uretefs ‐ Dfws kifrts ld audcrfcs lb `lnpkdefs ‐ Edvfstlr dftwlrj ‐ Nkdkhfnfdt tfkn rfikteldsaeps ‐ Orljfrkhf bern `ldbfrfd`fs ‐ @urrfdtiy edvfstfc ed ;0 cebbfrfdt `ludtrefs
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Edvfstnfdt ]rl`fss
• Budcknfdtki kdkiyses ‐ Bl`us ld taf clwdsecf berst ‐ [ukdteby lur kdkiyses weta cftkeifc vkiukteld wlrj ‐ Vdcfrstkdc taf `urrfdt ousedfss tarluha
`lnpkdy spf`ebe` kdc edcustry ifvfi ceiehfd`f ‐ Kdkiyzf taf sustkedkoeiety lb k `lnpkdy―s
`lnpftetevf kcvkdtkhf ‐ Bk`f-tl-bk`f fvkiukteld lb nkdkhfnfdt tfkns
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Pf`urety Pfif`teld
• Xf illj blr pre`f ces`rfpkd`efs oftwffd tafvkiuf lb k ousedfss kdc taf `urrfdt sakrf pre`f
• ’Xay krf wf sl iu`jy tl akvf taes edvfstnfdtlpplrtudety
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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_esj Nkdkhfnfdt
• @lnnld sfdsf ‐ ’Es taes k resj E wkdt tl tkjf weta ny nltafr―s
rfterfnfdt skvedhs
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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• Aeha qukiety `lnpkdy weta aeha rf`urredh rfvfduf,aeha `iefdt rftfdteld rktfs, kdc sehdebe`kdt veseoeiety
• Jfy pikyfr sfrvedh k ikrhf kdc hrlwedh SKN supplrtfcoy sf`uikr hrlwta
• Pkifs blr`f rfstru`turedh weii crevf suostkdteki fkrdedhshrlwta
• Dft `ksa okikd`f safft + B@B hfdfrkteld supplrts ikrhfrfturds lb `kpetki tl sakrfalicfrs
Se`jfr7 BL__
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Ousedfss Lvfrvefw• Ifkcedh tf`adlilhy rfsfkr`a kdc kcveslry `lnpkdy• Kttrk`tevf ousedfss weta ~8=% rf`urredh rfvfdufs• Ienetfc edvfstfc `kpetki kdc 2=% ed`rfnfdtki nkrheds• Cevfrsebefc weta dl `ustlnfr 4?% lb skifs
@lrf _fsfkr`a3=%
Ifkcfrsaep Olkrcs?=%
Cktk5%
@ldsuitedh?8%
Fvfdts3%
Dld-_f`urredh_fvfduf
0;%
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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]rlcu`t Lvfrvefw• Blrrfstfr―s prenkry krfks lb bl`us7
‐ Ousedfss Sf`adlilhy (6?% lb skifs)7• Pfiiedh trkceteldki tf`a rfsfkr`a tl trkceteldki tf`a usfrs (’systfns
lb rf`lrc„) ‐ Fx7 @aefb Sf`adlilhy Lbbe`frs, @aefb Edblrnkteld Lbbe`frs, ft`.
‐ Nkrjftedh & Ptrktfhy (30% lb skifs)7• Pfiiedh tf`a rfsfkr`a tl afip `iefdts ofttfr nkdkhf, rfk`a, kdc
`lnnude`ktf weta `ustlnfrs (’systfns lb fdhkhfnfdt„) ‐ Fx7 @aefb Nkrjftedh Lbbe`frs, @ustlnfr Edtfiiehfd`f R]―s, ft` .
• Saes es wafrf Blrrfstfr clnedktfs kdc cebbfrfdtektfs etsfib brlnpffrs
• Sf`a ouchfts blr `ustlnfr edtfrk`teld krf hrlwedh nu`a bkstfrtakd trkceteldki tf`a (+;6%/yr vs +;-?%/yr)
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Edcustry Lvfrvefw• Sltki kccrfsskoif nkrjft lb $;? oeiield kdc hrlwedh
‐ Swl oehhfst pikyfrs akvf ;8.6% nkrjft sakrf7• Hkrtdfr weta ;6% kdc Blrrfstfr weta ?.6%• @lnpftetlrs krf snkii kdc ik`j s`kif
• Aeha hrlwta edcustry ‐ Sf`a rfsfkr`a hrlws 4?x tf`a spfdcedh kdc tf`a spfdcedh
hrlwedh bkstfr takd HC]• Sf`a spfdcedh fxpf`tfc tl hrlw 0.?-6.6% ed ?=;3
‐ ;=-;6% dlrnkiezfc kdduki lrhkde` hrlwta rktfs ‐ Blrrfstfr kdc Hkrtdfr akvf rf`fdtiy `lnnfdtfc tafy
`kddlt aerf bkst fdluha tl jffp up weta cfnkdc
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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’Sll nkdy `akdhfs, tll que`jiy„ • Pfvfrki lpfrkteldki cf`eselds nkcf ed ?=;? akvf
tfnplrkreiy enpk`tfc Blrrfstfr―s hrlwta prlbeif ‐ Ifkcfrsaep @akdhfs7
• _fpik`fc @aefb Pkifs Lbbe`fr kdc berfc @aefb Lpfrktedh Lbbe`fr ‐ @iefdt Cfievfry7
• @akdhfc tl ldf skifs rfp pfr k``ludt vs ldf rfp pfr prlcu`t• @akdhfc tl rfheldki/tfrretlreki oksfc skifs rfps
‐ Nkglrety lb skifs blr`f wks il`ktfc ed @knorechf, NK
‐ Pkifs @lnpfdskteld7• @lnpiftfiy rfvknpfc taf `lnpfdskteld stru`turf tl k vfry
udplpuikr kdc `ldbusedh pikd ‐ _fil`ktfc Afkcqukrtfrs7
• Ed`rfksfc `lnnutfs sehdebe`kdtiy
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Kbtfrnkta• _fvfduf hrlwta stunoifc kdc ed`rfksfc `lsts wfehafc ld nkrheds
‐ 2=% lb `iefdt k``ludts swet`afc rfps ‐
Kttreteld spejfc ‐ fspf`ekiiy knldhst sfdelr skifs rfpsEdcfxfc _fsfkr`a _fvfduf
5=
;==
;;=
;?=
;0=
;3=
Blrrfstfr Hkrtdfr
Pkifs blr`f trkdseteld ofheds
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Fkrdedhs Hrlwta• Blrrfstfr―s dfw @aefb Pkifs Lbbe`fr aks sed`f bexfc taf
`lnpfdskteld essufs kdc rfvknpfc rf`ruetedh ‐ Kttreteld ifvfis krf ofheddedh tl dlrnkiezf
• Saf dfw skifs nlcfi es wfii rf`fevfc oy `iefdts kdc
crevedh `rlss sfiiedh lpplrtudetefs blr taf berst tenf ‐ Paluic crevf cluoif cehet olljedhs hrlwta ed ?A ?=;3• Pkifs stkbb buiiy rknpedh lvfr taf dfxt ;?-;1 nldtas
saluic crevf cluoif cehet fkrdedhs hrlwta ofh. ?=;6 ‐ Buiiy rknpfc skifs stkbb saluic sfii ~$; neiield/yr vs dld
rknpfc skifs stkbb takt sfii ~$?0=,===/yr ‐ Xeta 2=% ed`rfnfdtki nkrheds, hrlwta bkiis tl taf olttln
iedf
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Bker Rkiuf• Kt k pffr nuitepif, wf ofiefvf BL__ es wlrta $31.;=/sa
• Clwdsecf es prltf`tfc oy BL__―s khhrfssevf stl`j rfpur`aksfprlhrkn
‐ _fpur̀ aksfc ;2.?% lb sakrfs L/P ed ?=;0 kt kvfrkhf pre`f lb $02.?3 ‐ ?.1% kolvf taf `urrfdt pre`f
• Burtafr rfturds lb `kpetki iejfiy ks BL__ wluic iejf tl hft tl $;==neiield ed `ksa
‐ Enpiefs kdltafr ~$1= neiield ed `ksa tl of rfturdfc ed ?=;3• BL__ aks rfturdfc 3?% lb ets nkrjft `kp tl sakrfalicfrs sed`f
?==5 tarluha ouyok`js, rfhuikr cevecfdcs, kdc spf`eki cevecfdcs
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8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent
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Edvfstnfdt _esjs• Pkifs trkdseteld tkjfs ildhfr takd fxpf`tfc• Ed`rfksfc `lnpfteteld ed nkrjftedh & strktfhy
rfsfkr`a• Ed`rfksfc prliebfrkteld lb brff tf`a edblrnkteld
kvkeikoif ld taf edtfrdft• @ldsuitedh skifs `ldteduf tl hrlw bkstfr takd
rfsfkr`a skifs rfcu`edh rf`urredh rfvfduf nex• Ienetfc bilkt ks Bludcfr lwds ~3?% lb taf `lnpkdy
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• Oustfc E]L rfsuits ed sjfwfc resj/rfwkrc
‐ Sltki rfturd lb 2=-1=%• Ienetfc clwdsecf ks trkcedh kt 18% lb OR• Fkrdedhs saluic nlrf takd cluoif lvfr taf
dfxt ? yfkrs• ]kec tl wket weta k cevecfdc yefic lb ;;%• Kiehdfc ed`fdtevfs ks nkdkhfr lwds 0=%
Se`jfr7 LBP
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Ok`jhrludc
• Fxtfrdkiiy nkdkhfc OC@ ifdcedh tl tafneccif-nkrjft
• Ptl`j slic lbb cuf tl k cfiky ed rf`fevedh POE@crlp-clwd kpprlvki
‐ Kpprlvki rf`fevfc ed Cf`fnofr ?=;0• Skrhft plrtbliel lb $36=nn
‐ $??6nn Pr Ilkd Budc7 $;15nn (13% rknpfc) ‐ $??6nn POE@7 $35nn (??% rknpfc)
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Pnkii Ousedfss Edvfstnfdt @lnpkdy
• Sltki rfturds ld edvfstnfdts lb ;?-;2%• _fturd ld fquety lb 4?=%• K``fss tl POK Cfofdturf prlhrkn
‐
Edtfrfst ldiy, ouiift weta ;= yfkr nkturety ‐ Bexfc rktf kt ;= yr trfksury + ~2=ops ‐ Vdsf`urfc, dld-rf`lursf tl nkdkhfr ‐ Dl prfpkynfdt pfdkity
•
Cerf`t ifdcedh piktblrn ‐ ]rlpreftkry cktkoksf lb 41j `lnpkdefs ‐ Ifdcs tl taf ilwfr neccif-nkrjft
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Fkrdedhs Hrlwta Brln POE@ _knp_LF - POE@ Nlcfi7
Edvfstnfdt _fturd ;3.=%@lst lb budcs 3.=%Nhnt bff ;.86%C/F ?.=xCfot/Sltki @kpetki 22.8%
Cfot - $ $;6=.=Fquety - $ $86.=Sltki Kssfts $??6.=
_fvfduf $0;.6Edtfrfst fxpfdsf ($0.=)Nkdkhfnfdt bff ($0.5)Ilkd ilss prlveseld ($?.0)Ed`lnf (prf-ed`fdtevf) $??.0Ed`fdtevf bff ($3.6)Dft Ed`lnf $;8.5_LF ?3%
[3;0 [;;3 [?;3 [0;3 [3;3 [;;6 [?;6 [0;6 [3;6
LBP dft ed`lnf $;.3 $?.3 $?.8 $?.5 $0.0 $0.8 $3.? $3.2 $6.=
ISN dft ed`lnf $6.8 $2.8 $8.5 $5.3 $;;.0 $;?.8 $;3.; $;6.1 $;8.6
Pfq Hrlwta - % ;8% ;1% ;5% ?;% ;?% ;?% ;?% ;=%
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Nkdkhfnfdt• Fxtfrdki nkdkhfr lwds 0=%
‐ @FL lwds 4;=% lb LBP cerf`tiy• Bk`f-tl-bk`f fvkiukteld lb nkdkhfnfdt tfkn
‐ POE@ kppie`kteld prl`fss• ]red`epkis weta strldh, plsetevf rfputktelds• _fkiezfc trk`j rf`lrc lb supfrelr rfturds ofd`ankrjfc
khkedst budcs lb sknf vedtkhf yfkr kdc styif• Fvecfd`f lb strldh cfki bilw ed edvfstnfdt krfk blr
prlplsfc budc ‐ Edcustry `af`js plsetevf ld nkdkhfrs
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Bker RkiufVpsecf7
]F _ktel7Fkrdedhs pfr sakrf $;.18Nuitepif ;;.=x]re`f tkrhft $?=.65
Cevecfdcs rf`fevfc tarluha [3;6 $?.8?Sltki vkiuf rf`fevfc $?0.0; vs @urrfdt 10.2%
Enpiefc cevecfdc yefic 5.;%
Ollj Rkiuf7OR/sa ([3;6) $;3.05Nuitepif ;?2%]re`f tkrhft $;1.;= vs @urrfdt 3?.2%
Cevecfdcs rf`fevfc tarluha [3;6 $?.8?Sltki vkiuf rf`fevfc $?=.1? vs @urrfdt 23.=%
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Edvfstnfdt _esjs
• Fxf`uteld resj ‐ Skrhft hrlwedh POE@ kssfts $?=-0=n pfr qukrtfr
• Edtfrfst rktf resj ‐ POE@ ilkds krf bexfc rktf
• Ceiuteld ‐ Fquety lbbfredh dffcfc lb $;0.2n (;=% ceiuteld)
• Hfdfrki f`ldlne` clwdturd ‐ Pnkii ousedfssfs krf edlrcedktfiy kbbf`tfc
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• Ifkcedh fhh pk`jkhedh `lnpkdy weta k ;=.6% B@Byefic*
• Cfbfdsevf kdc stkoif edcustry weta bfw ikrhf pikyfrs• _fstru`turedh prlhrkn weii `ldteduf tl enprlvf
nkrheds• Ed`rfksedh fhh cfnkdc `ldtedufs tl crevf skifs hrlwta
Se`jfr7 AK_S C@
* Oksfc ld N@Q
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Edcustry Lvfrvefw• Ifkcedh prlcu`fr lb nlicfc beorf fhh pk`jkhedh (3=% NP)
• Nlicfc beorf prfbfrrfc oy olta `ldsunfrs kdc pk`jfrs
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Ousedfss Lvfrvefw• Orlkc plrtbliel lb `ustlnezkoif prlcu`ts fkseiy nkt`afs kii
nkrjftedh strktfhefs ‐ Aeha fdc rfprfsfdts 43=% lb Akrtnkdd―s Furlpfkd skifs kdc hrlwedh
• _fheldki ikrhf prlcu`teld `kpkoeietefs ‐ ]rlcu`teld setfs7 @kdkck, Cfdnkrj, Hfrnkdy, Audhkry, @rlktek, kdc Esrkfi
Furlpf1?%
D. Knfre`k;1%
% Pkifs oy Hflhrkpay
Furlpf83%
D. Knfre`k30%
@lrplrktf-;6%
% FOES oy Hflhrkpay
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Hrlwta Crevfrs• Ed`rfksedh cfnkdc blr prfneun pk`jkhedh ed Furlpf
‐ Crevfd oy hrl`frs ks tafy fkrd 4?=% FOES nkrheds ld prfneunfhhs
• Ed`rfksedh pfdftrkteld lb nlicfc beorf ed Dlrta Knfre`k ‐ V.P. nkrjft es ~6=% blkn tlcky ‐ Nlicfc beorf hkededh sakrf ks `ustlnfrs cfnkdc sustkedkoif
kitfrdktevfs ‐ Akrtnkdd es ed`rfksedh `kpk`ety 00% lvfr dfxt ;? nldtas tl
supplrt cfnkdc• Ed`rfksedh `ldsunpteld lb fhhs ed Furlpf
‐ Fhh `ldsunpteld ed cfvfilpfc Furlpf ed`rfksfc 0.5% ed ?=;0 ‐ ]lpuikteld hrlwta kdc urokdezkteld krf jfy crevfrs
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_fstru`turedh ]rlhrkn
_fsuits tl Cktf
FOES Nkrheds76.8% -4 5.3%
B@B plsetevf sed`f?=;= kdc hrlwedh
_LE@ %71.6% -4 ?0.=%
Cevecfdcs pfr sakrf7CJJ ;.6= -4 CJJ 5.6=
]aksf Swl7 Ed ]rlhrfss
_kteldkiezf ̀ lst oksf Enprlvf skifs nexLptenezf
nkdubk`turedhbk`eietefs
Fxpkdc D. Knfre`kd`kpk`ety
]aksf Ldf7 @lnpiftfc
Cevfst ̀ kpetki edtfdsevfousedfssfs
Nkdkhfnfdt lvfrakui(dfw @akernkd, @FL,
@BL, kdc @LL)
Surd krludc ilssnkjedh sfhnfdts
@fdtrkiezf `lrplrktfbud`telds
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Bker Rkiuf• Kt k pffr nuitepif, AK_S C@ es wlrta CJJ ?12.25/sa
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Edvfstnfdt _esjs• Nkrheds sus`fpteoif tl edput `lsts
‐ Swl ikrhfst edputs krf rf`y`ifc pkpfr kdc fdfrhy• Ilw hrlwta edcustry
‐ Dfw nkrjft lpplrtudetefs ed taf V.P. kdc @fdtrki Furlpfhevfd ilw pfdftrkteld
• Pkifs krf tefc tl k `lnnlcety ‐ Fhh vliunfs krf vfry stkoif
• Kitfrdktevf pk`jkhedh nktfrekis fxest