escuela tÉcnica superior de ingenieros industriales universidad politÉcnica de madrid departamento...
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ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIORDE INGENIEROSINDUSTRIALES
UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICADE MADRID
DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERIA QUÍMICA INDUSTRIAL Y DEL MEDIO AMBIENTE
SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS(SEP) PROJECT
WORK UNDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SPAIN’S ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY AND THE TECHNICAL
UNIVERSITY OF MADRID
Thessaloniki, 30th October 2006
MINISTERIO DE MEDIO AMBIENTE. DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE CALIDAD Y
EVALUACIÓN AMBIENTAL
Dr. Julio [email protected]
30th October 2006. 2TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
1.1. Aim of the project
1.2. Activities
1.3 Pollutants
1.4. Projection methodology
1.5. EmiPro
1.6. Update system
2.1. Ex-post evaluation
2.2. RAINS comparison
2.3. National Emission Ceilings achievement
3. CONCLUSIONS
OUTLINE
1 - METHODOLOGY
2 - RESULTS
30th October 2006. 3TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
• To develop a consistent methodology to evaluate Spain’s Emission Projections• To obtain the emission projections for the period 2001 – 2020
Objectives
Critical aspects
- A tool for decision making process
- Projection Vs. Prediction
- Activity projection vs. sectoral prospective
- Integration of sectoral studies and activity projections
- Full consistency with the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory
(NEI)
- Basis for national AQ modelling
1.1.- The aim of the project
30th October 2006. 4TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Every activity under NEI using SNAP-97 nomenclature
1.2.- Activities
SNAP Description Number of SL3
1 Combustion in energy and transformation industries 17
2 Non-industrial combustion plants 6
3 Combustion in manufacturing industry 30
4 Production processes 62
5Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy
14
6 Solvent and other product use 42
7 Road transport 15
8 Other mobile sources and machinery 10
9 Waste treatment and disposal 14
10 Agriculture 37
11 Other sources and sinks 44
TOTAL 291
30th October 2006. 5TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Geneva Convention
1.3.- Pollutants
Sulphur oxides (SO2+SO3), measured as mass of SO2
Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2), measured as mass of NO2
Ammonia (NH3)
Volatile organic compounds (except methane) (NMVOC)
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Particulate Matter (as TSP, PM10 and PM2,5)
Heavy metals: lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and mercury (Hg)
Kyoto Protocol
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
As mass of each individual compound
In CO2 equivalent weighted according to
its global warming potential
30th October 2006. 6TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
1.4.- Methodology
- The projections are developed under EEA and US EPA framework
- The usual projection level is national (SNAP activity) and in annual
basis.
- Projections are specifically calculated for each pollutant included in
the activities considered.
- Projections are associated to scenarios:
Starting considerations:
- Technological
- Socioeconomic
- Statistical
- Legislative
Hypothesis:
- Activity rates
- Emission factors
- Emission trends
= SCENARIO
- Macroeconomic variables are exogenous to the model
30th October 2006. 7TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Scenarios
CO
2 e
qu
iva
len
t
Year1990 20102000
Kyoto
NO
X,
SO
2, C
OV
NM
, N
H3
Year1990 20102000
NEC
• Business as usual: statistical methods are used to provide future emissions, activity rates and/or emission factors. The only information used are past data without taking into account possible effect of measures. It is a “reference” scenario and it has physical constrains. Equivalent to “without measures”.
• Base: it includes every plan, policy or measure officially adopted that has any effect in atmospheric emissions. Equivalent to “with measures”.
• Target: it incorporates additional measures aimed at achieving the targets included in both National Emissions Ceilings Directive and Kyoto Protocol. Equivalent to “with additional measures”.
30th October 2006. 8TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
SCENARIOS
Base
BAU
SCENARIOS
Base
BAU
Emission data (Inventory)
Socioeconomic data
Sectoral studies
Legislation
Technological aspects
Basic information
- Activity Rate trend (A)
- Emission factor trend (EF)
- Emission trend (E)
- Control Factor (CF) and Growth Factor (G)
First Hypotheses
Method for calculation
n
kkjjaiji CFtEFAE
1,,,
n
kkjjaiaji CFgEGE
1,,,
Evaluated
emissions
Belowthreshold?Results
Definition of a T
arget scenario
YES NOCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
Kyoto Protocol
NEC
SCENARIO
Target
SCENARIO
Target
Target Hypotheses
- Activity Rate (A)
- Emission factor (EF)
- Emission (E)
- Control & Growth Factors (CF & GF)
30th October 2006. 9TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Integration criteria
- Development of ‘macroscenarios’ for coherence assurance
Projection estimation
AR = activity rateConsistency
criteria
Relationships, implications
Group of related activities
SNAP 1
SNAP 2
SNAP ...
AR 1AR 2
Hypothesis homogenization
Proj 1
Proj 2
Proj ...
Macroscenario
Σ Proj
- Once the relationship mapping has been clearly identified, it is only a
matter of introducing consistency conditions into the hypothesis made
under each scenario for a particular activity rate
30th October 2006. 10TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
1.5.- EmiPro
- EmiPro (Emission Projections) is a software tool specifically developed
to handle all the data and procedures involved in the SEP project.
Last non-Beta version,currently v4.0
- Start screen -
30th October 2006. 11TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
- Generally, projections are made on national basis
But, the setting of thresholds derived from NEC Directive’s commitments
must be done taking into account only a subset of the total national
emissions
Solution:
- Implementation of a parallel database system inside EmiPro
corresponding to the two different geographic and pollutant scopes.
None of them stores NUTS-3 level information:
Design issues
30th October 2006. 12TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
NEC-Base:
- Only NMVOC, NH3, NOX and SO2
- SNAP 11 (nature) emissions are excluded
- NMVOC from SNAP 10 (agriculture) are excluded
- Emissions under the EMEP domain (Canary Islands are not included)
- Domestic and international cruise traffic (h > 1000 m) emissions are excluded
- National and international airport traffic (LTO cycles<1000m) are included
Results
CORINAIR DB2004
General:
- National scope
- All SEP’s project pollutants
NEC-BaseGeneral
SEP (1990-2000)
NECGeneral
EmiPro (1990-2020)
Activity-rate historical datasets analysis and
geographical disaggregation criteria
- Parallel projection scheme and information stored in each database
30th October 2006. 13TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Storage and recovery of past (history) emissions
Main functionalities
30th October 2006. 14TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Generation of projections from history data and algorithm factors
Main functionalities
30th October 2006. 15TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Storage and recovery of projected emissions
Main functionalities
30th October 2006. 16TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Reports generation
Main functionalities
30th October 2006. 17TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Quality Assurance/Quality Check
Main functionalities
Macroscenariocalculation report:
projections included
Emission projection atmacroscenario level
Time frameselecction
Pollutantselection
Switchbetween
graphical -tabular views
Macroscenariocalculation report:
projections included
Emission projection atmacroscenario level
Time frameselecction
Pollutantselection
Switchbetween
graphical -tabular views
30th October 2006. 18TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
1.6.- Updating system
Dic
Nov
Oct
Sep
Ago
Jul
Jun
May
Abr
Mar
Feb
Ene
Dic
Nov
Oct
Sep
Ago
Jul
Jun
May
Abr
Mar
Feb
Ene
Dic
Nov
Oct
Sep
Ago
Jul
Jun
May
Abr
Mar
Feb
Ene
Dic
Nov
Oct
Sep
Ago
Jul
Jun
May
Abr
Mar
Feb
Ene
Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-2)
year i
year i+1
Projections 2001-2020 (NEI series 1990-year i-3)
Publication of new methodology (series 1990-year i-2)
Projection update (NEI series 1990-year i-2)
Inclusion of new policies and measures
Inclusion of new policies and measures
Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-1)
9-month delay
30th October 2006. 19TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Conclusions from updating system
Other updates
- It is not possible to obtain consistent emission projections until 9
months after NEI publication
- New policies and measures are included into emission projections as
they appear vs. NEI annual updates
- Base year intended to be changed every 5 years
- Temporal scope is extended, if necessary, when the base year is
updated
- Historical data up to new base year are included
- Previous projected series are kept
30th October 2006. 20TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
1.1. Aim of the project
1.2. Activities
1.3 Pollutants
1.4. Projection methodology
1.5. EmiPro
1.6. Update system
2.1. Ex-post evaluation
2.2. RAINS comparison
2.3. National Emission Ceilings achievement
3. CONCLUSIONS
OUTLINE
1 - METHODOLOGY
2 - RESULTS
30th October 2006. 21TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
2.1.- Ex-post evaluation
- Each 2 years:
- Projection values are checked against official NEI estimates
- Comparison at group and national level
- Deviation analysis:
- due to trend estimation (non-updated NEI) (a)
- due to methodological issues (updated NEI) (b)
350.000
360.000
370.000
380.000
390.000
400.000
2000 2001 2002
Año
Em
isio
nes
NH 3 (
t)
Inventario Tendencial
Base Objetivo
+1,7 %+2,2 %
+0,6 %
-4,8 %
-1,6 %
+0,9 %
330.000
340.000
350.000
360.000
370.000
380.000
390.000
400.000
410.000
2000 2001 2002
Año
Em
isio
nes
CO 2
eq
uiv
alen
te (
kt)
Inventario Tendencial
Base Objetivo
+0,2 %-1,0 %
-5,9 %
-9,5 %
-6,2 %
-3,4 %
Ex-post evaluation for NH3 emissions Ex-post evaluation for GHG emissions(a)
30th October 2006. 22TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Ex-post evaluation for total VOC emissions*
(b)
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
2.000.000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Año
t C
OV
NM
Base
NEI (1990-2003)
NEI (1990-2004)
* Provisional data
30th October 2006. 23TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
2.2.- RAINS comparison
- Development of a 4-level hierarchy nomenclature (sub-SNAP =
SEP)
- Mapping RAINS-SEP (biunivocal correspondence)- Comparisons:
- Activity rate- Technology penetration and emission factors- NEC emissions
01/01/01/01
PP_EX_OTH-BC1-NOC
SNAP
Fuel = FTechnology =TReduction measure =M
SEP
Power Plant (SNAP)Existing (T)Other boiler type (T)Brown Coal (F)No Control Measure (M)
30th October 2006. 24TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
2.3.- NEC accomplishment
NH3 Emissions*
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
500.000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Año
t N
H 3
Base
NEI (1990-2003)
NEC_NAT_CLE4REV (Aug06)
NEI (1990-2004)
* Provisional data
30th October 2006. 25TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
VOC Emissions*
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
2.000.000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Año
t C
OV
NM
Base
NEI (1990-2003)
NEI (1990-2004)
* Provisional data
30th October 2006. 26TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
NOx Emissions*
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
2.000.000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Año
t N
OX
Base
NEI (1990-2003)
"NEC_NAT_CLE4REV (Aug06)
NEI (1990-2004)
* Provisional data
30th October 2006. 27TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
SOx Emissions*
0
250.000
500.000
750.000
1.000.000
1.250.000
1.500.000
1.750.000
2.000.000
2.250.000
2.500.000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Año
t S
O2
Base
NEI (1990-2003)
"NEC_NAT_CLE4REV (Aug06)
NEI (1990-2004)
* Provisional data
30th October 2006. 28TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Policies and measures included in base scenario
SNAP Groups Policy and measure
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9
Strategy for saving energy and improving efficiency (E4)
1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 & 9
Action plan for the implementation of E4 in the period 2005-2007
1, 2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 Plan for the electricity and gas sectors
1, 2, 3, 7 & 8 Plan for the increase of renewable energies
1 Directive 2001/80/EC for Large Combustion Plants
1 BREF on Large Combustion Plant
1, 4 BREF on Refineries
2, 6 National plan for house accessibility
1, 2, 3, 7 & 8Directive related to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels
2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 & 11
Population projections for 2002-2020
3, 4 BREF on Iron and Steel production
3 BREF on Ferrous Metal processing
3, 4 BREF on Non-Ferrous Metal processes
3, 4 BREF on Cement and Lime production
3 BREF on Glass manufacture
3 BREF on Glass manufacture
4 BAT on ammonia manufacture
30th October 2006. 29TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
SNAP Policy and measure
4 BAT on ammonium nitrate manufacture
4 BREF on Chlor-Alkali manufacture
4 BREF on Large Volume Organic Chemicals
4 BREF on Pulp and Paper manufacture
4, 6, 7, 8 Strategic Plan for Transport Infrastructures
4, 5 Directive on the control of VOC emissions.
4, 8 OSPAR Convention
4 BREF on Food, Drink and Milk processes
6 Directive on the limitation of emissions of VOC due to the use of organic solvents
6 BREF on Textile processing
6Reduction of the emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in the European Union
7 Auto Oil II programme
7 Agreements with car manufacturers
8 Directive against the emission of pollutants from engines in non-road mobile machinery
9 & 10 Waste plans
9 Directive on packaging and packaging waste
10 & 11 Nitrogen balance in Spanish agriculture
9, 10 & 11 Spanish Forestry Plan
10 & 11 Reform of the CAP. Medium-Term prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU
30th October 2006. 30TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
Drivers’ comparison
NEC (1999) SEP (2006) IIASA (2006)
2010 1990 % 2010 1990 % 2010 1990 %
Pop. (Mp) 40,57 38,97 4,1 45,50 38,85 17,1 45,50 38,85 17,1
GDP (b€) 631,20 377,96 67,0 695,57 406,25 71,2 - - -
Energy (PJ) 5215,00 3621,53 44,0 6674,58 N.A. - 6674,58 3618,12 84,5
Cattle (Mh) 6,00 5,13 17,0 5,67 5,06 12,0 6,14 5,08 20,9
Pigs (Mh) 20,30 15,98 27,0 26,33 16,94 55,4 26,94 16,99 58,6
Poultry (Mh) 83,10 44,92 85,0 181,53 166,26 9,2 170,03 157,19 8,2
F. use (kt N) 1052,00 1062,63 -1,0 1090,26 1074,17 1,5 1049,00 1074,17 -2,3
- Most of the drivers were
underestimated
- SEP and IIASA
estimates show a
reasonable agreement
Current situation 2005* NEC %
Population (Mp) 44,11 40,57 +8,7%
GDP (billion €) 641,19 631,20 +1,6%
Energy (PJ) 6119,43 5215,00 +17,3%
Cattle (Mheads) 6,65** 6,00 +10,9%
Pigs (Mheads) 24,89** 20,30 +22,6%
Poultry (Mheads) 178,35** 83,10 +114,6%
Fertiliser use (kt N) 1052,29** 1052,00 +0,0%* Total National
** Data from 2004
30th October 2006. 31TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
2010 comparison SEP-NEC RAINS-NEC
Population (Mp) +12.15% +12.15%
GDP (billion €) +10.20% -
Energy (PJ) +27.99% +27.99%
Cattle (Mheads) -5.53% +2.34%
Pigs (Mheads) +29.70% +32.72%
Poultry (Mheads) +118.45% +104.61%
Fertiliser use (kt N) +3.64% -0.29%
Emissions comparison for 2010 with NEC
SEP-NEC RAINS-NEC
NH3 2.18% 0.48%
NMVOC 30.09% -
NOx 22.13% 35.43%
SO2 -52.24% -32.63%
30th October 2006. 32TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.
3.- Conclusions
- Spain has a consistent methodology to evaluate emission projections
- A tailored software tool (EmiPro) supports data management, quality
checks and report generation
- A specific nomenclature (SEP) has been developed with a SEP-
RAINS mapping (open for comments)
- Spain’s projections have been compared against RAINS/GAINS
results using this mapping
- SEP and RAINS emission trends are very similar
- Difficulties in the achievement of the ceilings for 2010 could be partly
explained by unrealistic estimation of drivers trends when negotiating
Spain’s emission ceilings