esn analyser - exprivia · imerys france nk fp 15/05/2018 dividend payment full year 2017 dividend...

Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

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15 May 2018

ESN Top Picks

Roadshows

Corporate Events

Tactical Sector Views

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES

Trigano upgraded to Buy from Neutral Sharp increase in H1-18 results: upward revision to forecasts

NEWS BY SECTOR

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE Leonardo (Buy) Italy and India try to revive their military co-operation

AUTOMOBILES & PARTS Landi Renzo (Neutral) Q1 results almost in line – FY18 guidance confirmed

BANKS Banca MPS (Buy) Juliet disposal completed Commerzbank (Neutral) Q1 pretax profit slightly above our forecast Crédit Agricole SA (Accumulate) Soft patch for the CIB, as for peers

BASIC RESOURCES Altri (Buy) 1Q18 results and valuation update SURTECO (Buy) Good start into 2018, guidance confirmed

FINANCIAL SERVICES Anima (Accumulate) Q1-18 better than expected; positive message from CC TIP Tamburi Investment Partners (Buy) TIP Q1 18 results CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A. (Buy) Good start into 2018 – Guidance for FY 2018 confirmed

FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS Marr (Neutral) Q1 18 results: good recovery in profitability

GENERAL INDUSTRIALS Cembre (Neutral) Solid results in Q1'18

GENERAL RETAILERS Yoox Net-A-Porter (Neutral) Q1 18 revenues results

HEALTHCARE Terveystalo (Accumulate) Q1 results out on Wednesday

HOUSEHOLD GOODS Fila (Buy) Q1 18E estimates

ESN Analyser

Investment Research


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ESN Analyser

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Biesse (Accumulate) Weak Q1 18 results, but FY guidance based on strong orders Carraro (Buy) Q1 2018 results in line – Improved FY18 guidance Emak (Accumulate) Q1 18 preview: potential negative impact of weather Exel Composites (Accumulate) Q1 slightly below forecasts – earnings forecasts burdened by DSC consolidation Fincantieri (Buy) New EUR 320m contract with SilverSea Sector News Industrial engineering – muted Q1 in Finland, strong profitability for Swedish peers

INSURANCE Allianz (Neutral) Q1 results slightly better than expected AXA (Accumulate) Time to integrate XL

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Astaldi (Reduce) EUR 193m new orders in LatAm Eiffage (Accumulate) A record order book, boosted by the Grand Paris project SIAS (Buy) Sound growth expected in Q1

MEDIA Mediaset (Accumulate) Q1 2018 Pre: starting the year in a weak ad market

PERSONAL GOODS Geox (Neutral) Q1 18 sales results expected weak Marimekko (Neutral) Target price upgraded to EUR 14.50 Technogym (Neutral) Q118 sales should confirm solid organic growth

SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES Exprivia (Accumulate) Q1 2018 Post: negative EBITDA contribution from Italtel Reply (Neutral) Q1 2018 Pre: growth as usual expected

SUPPORT SERVICES ENAV (Accumulate) Steady revenues but better margins Openjobmetis (Accumulate) Q1 PW: expected good sales growth thanks to the positive trend of the reference market

TELECOMMUNICATIONS Acotel (Reduce) Q1 2018 Pre: weak trends to persist Vodafone (Accumulate) YTM 2018 results: Good results and supportive guidance

TRAVEL & LEISURE Gamenet (Buy) Q1-18 results should be helped by a better payout Trigano (Buy) Sharp increase in H1-18 results; upward revision to forecasts

UTILITIES EDP (Accumulate) Announcement of EDP’s Board regarding the offer over EDP Erg (Accumulate) More wind and capacity off-set decreasing incentives


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Blue Chips Top Picks

Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of

14 / 0 5 / 2 0 18

Ta r ge t

P r i c e

Upsi de /

Downsi deEnt r y da t e

Ent r y

pr i c e

Ent r y

pr i c e

( D i v .

Adj )

Tot a l

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Ent r y To

Da t e

Re l . Cml . d

pe r f . v s Eur o

S t ox x

AS M L Net herlands Technology Hardware & EquipmentLong Buy 169.25 200.00 18% 13/ 02/ 2018 158.05 156.65 8 . 0 % 5.9%

ENDES A Spain Ut ilit ies Long Accumulat e 19.61 22.50 15% 23/ 04/ 2018 17.80 17.80 10 . 2 % 8.0%

I NDI TEX Spain General Ret ailers Long Buy 26.87 35.50 32% 15/ 03/ 2018 24.21 24.21 11. 0 % 6.7%

I NTES A S ANP AOLO It aly Banks Long Accumulat e 3.15 3.50 11% 14/ 03/ 2018 3.10 3.10 1. 6 % -3.7%

LEONARDO It aly Aerospace & Def ense Long Buy 9.43 12.25 30% 07/ 02/ 2018 9.06 9.06 4 . 1% 4.1%

P UM A Germany Personal Goods Long Buy 417.00 492.00 18% 28/ 02/ 2018 385.50 373.00 11. 8 % 4.5% source: ESN Members’ estimates

M/S Caps Top Picks

Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of

14 / 0 5 / 2 0 18

Ta r ge t

P r i c e

Upsi de /

Downsi deEnt r y da t e

Ent r y

pr i c e

Ent r y pr i c e

( D i v . Adj )

Tot a l

Re t ur n

Ent r y To

Da t e

Re l . Cml . d

pe r f . v s

Eur o

S t ox x

ACERI NOX Spain Basic Resources Long Buy 11.85 14.00 18% 01/ 03/ 2018 12.30 12.30 - 3 . 7 % -7.1%

ARCADI S Net herlands General Indust r ials Long Buy 16.66 25.00 50% 27/ 03/ 2018 15.06 14.59 14 . 2 % 6.2%

BI OCARTI S Belgium Healt hcare Long Buy 13.02 15.90 22% 12/ 04/ 2018 12.66 12.66 2 . 8 % -1.4%

BOS KALI S WES TM I NS TER Net herlands Mat erials, Const ruct ion & Inf rast ruct ure Long Buy 23.88 33.00 38% 26/ 03/ 2018 23.78 22.78 4 . 8 % -2.5%

CORES TATE CAP I TAL HOLDI NG S . A . Germany Financial Services Indust r ials Long Buy 46.75 72.00 54% 13/ 02/ 2018 49.35 47.35 - 1. 3 % -7.0%

FERRATUM Germany Financial Services Banks Long Buy 26.40 30.00 14% 13/ 02/ 2018 26.45 26.27 0 . 5 % -5.2%

J UM BO Greece General Ret ailers Long Buy 15.04 17.00 13% 11/ 10/ 2017 15.38 15.21 - 1. 1% -0.3%

KWS S AAT Germany Chemicals Long Buy 302.50 348.00 15% 05/ 01/ 2018 293.00 293.00 3 . 2 % 1.6%

P I AGGI O It aly Aut omobiles & Part s Long Buy 2.18 3.10 42% 16/ 01/ 2018 2.36 2.30 - 5 . 3 % -8.7%

S AI P EM It aly Oil Services Long Buy 3.41 4.40 29% 30/ 04/ 2018 3.36 3.36 1. 4 % -0.8%

S I F GROUP Net herlands Alt ernat ive Energy Long Buy 18.72 22.00 18% 01/ 03/ 2018 17.20 16.90 10 . 8 % 7.1%

S ONAE CAP I TAL Port ugal Travel & Leisure Long Buy 1.02 1.05 3% 19/ 04/ 2018 0.94 0.94 8 . 1% 3.3%

THE NAVI GATOR COM P ANY Port ugal Basic Resources Long Neut ral 4.98 5.10 2% 19/ 03/ 2018 4.50 4.50 10 . 7 % 11.2%

VALM ET Finland Indust r ial Engineering Long Buy 15.81 18.50 17% 05/ 03/ 2018 16.06 16.06 - 1. 6 % -7.3% source: ESN Members’ estimates

This selection of stocks is not intended to provide a recommended portfolio; therefore there is no point in comparing its performance with any benchmark. The performance of each stock has to be considered independently. Risk factors are taken into account when selecting individual stocks but the risk profile of the selection as a whole is not considered. The approach used to select each investment idea is opportunistic with

an absolute return target.

ESN Top Picks


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SUBJECT LOCATION EVENT DATE

Masmovil Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 17/05/2018

Technogym Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 22/05/2018

INTERPUMP Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 29/05/2018

Roadshows


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Corporate Events

Company CountryBloomberg

codeDate Event Type Description

ACCOR France AC FP 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 1.05

ADIDAS Germany ADS GR 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 2.60

ADLER MODEMAERKTE Germany ADD GY 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 0.05

ALLIANZ Germany ALV GY 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 8.00

BIOTEST Germany BIO3 GR 15/05/2018 AGM Full year 2017 AGM

EZENTIS Spain EZE SM 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Results

FLEURY MICHON France FLE FP 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 1.10

HEIDELBERG CEMENT AG Germany HEI GR 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 1.90

IMERYS France NK FP 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 2.08

LAFARGEHOLCIM Sw itzerland LHN VX 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed CHF 2.00

LEONARDO Italy LDO IM 15/05/2018 AGM Full year 2017 AGM - 2nd call {if required}

MERCK Germany MRK GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Earnings conference call / Webcast {press}

MLP Germany MLP GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Earnings conference call / Webcast

PROCREDIT HOLDING Germany PCZ GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Results

Germany PCZ GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Earnings conference call / Webcast

SERGE FERRARI GROUP France SEFER FP 15/05/2018 Ex Dividend Date Full year 2017 Ex-dividend date - proposed EUR 8.00

SIAS Italy SIS IM 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Results

WCM AG Germany WCMK GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Results


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Tactical Sector Allocation Matrix January 2018

SectorCurrent Tactical

ViewAction

Previous

Tactical View

Stoxx 600

Weighting

LATEST REVIEW

DATE

Automobiles & Parts = = 4% Nov-17

Banks = = 14% Nov-17

Basic Resources = = 3% Nov-17

Chemicals = = 4% Nov-17

Construction & Materials = = 3% Nov-17

Financial Services = = 2% Nov-17

Food & Beverage - - 6% Nov-17

Healthcare = = 13% Nov-17

Industrial Good & Services + + 12% Nov-17

Insurance = = 6% Nov-17

Media = = 2% Nov-17

Oil & Gas - - 5% Nov-17

Personal & Household Goods + + 9% Nov-17

Real Estate = = 2% Nov-17

Retail - - 3% Nov-17

Technology + + 4% Nov-17

Telecommunications = upgrade - 4% Jan-18

Travel & Leisure + + 2% Nov-17

Utilities = = 4% Nov-17

Legend: + (Overw eight); =/+ (Slightly Overw eight); = (Market Weight); =/- (Slightly Underw eight); - (Underw eight);

Note: The tactical sector view is the shorter term trading view of the ESN strategy team and it can vary from the longer term

fundamental view of the relevant ESN sector analyst team

ESN Tactical Sector Views

Leonardo

For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report of 52

Italy and India try to revive their military co-operation

The facts: Indian “Economic Times” revealed that, after an eight-year gap, an

Indian top defence ministry delegation is headed to Rome next week to revive ties

following the AgustaWestland helicopter scandal and the controversial case of

Italian marines shooting dead fishermen off the Kerala coast.

The delegation - led by Indian defence secretary Sanjay Mitra - will look at areas for

military cooperation, including the sale or joint development of arms and equipment,

over two days that include meetings with the Italian defence minister, the head of

armaments and three service chiefs. Arms companies have not been included in the

joint defence committee meeting.

It seems that the Indians are interested in naval systems, including a new set of

minesweepers for the Indian Navy.

Our analysis: LDO has virtually blacklisted in India after the AgustaWestland case

erupted in 2010; to our knowledge, the blacklisting prevented LDO from taking

part in tenders worth ~EUR 15bn (naval helicopters, naval cannons, tactical

cargoes, torpedoes…).

India overtook the UK as the fifth-largest defence spender in the world in 2017 at

USD 52.5bn (+2.7% Y/Y, source: International Institute for Strategic Studies). We

argue that any attempt to revive the once fruitful relationship can have positive

impact on LDO.

Conclusion & Action: the piece of news is potentially positive, but short term is

neutral.

Leonardo

Italy | Aerospace & Defense

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE Leonardo (Buy) Italy and India try to revive their military co-operation

Analyser 15 May 2018

Analyst(s)

Gabriele Gambarova

[email protected]

+39 02 43 444 289

Buy

9.43

closing price as of 14/05/2018

12.25

29.9%Upside/Downside Potential

Target Price unchanged

Recommendation unchanged

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg LDOF.MI/LDO IM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 5,452

Current N° of shares (m) 578

Free float 64%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 3,352

Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 44,960.16

Price high/low 12 months 8.41 / 16.04

Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.49/7.13/-39.90

Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e

Sales (m) 11,527 11,665 12,221

EBITDA (m) 1,560 1,380 1,650

EBITDA margin 13.5% 11.8% 13.5%

EBIT (m) 833 708 979

EBIT margin 7.2% 6.1% 8.0%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 433 576 653

ROCE 6.4% 6.4% 6.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 2,579 2,477 2,352

Net Debt/Equity 0.6 0.5 0.5

Debt/EBITDA 1.7 1.8 1.4

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 3.6 4.3 5.4

EV/Sales 0.6 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA 4.2 4.4 3.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.9 3.6 3.4

EV/EBIT 7.8 8.7 6.1

P/E (adj.) 13.3 9.5 8.3

P/BV 1.3 1.2 1.1

OpFCF yield 9.5% 1.1% 3.8%

Dividend yield 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

EPS (adj.) 0.75 1.00 1.13

BVPS 7.73 8.08 8.78

DPS 0.14 0.14 0.14

Shareholders

Italian Government 32%; Norges Bank 2%; Libyan Investment

Authority 2%;

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18

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LEONARDO Stoxx Aerospace & Defense (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Landi Renzo


Q1 results almost in line – FY18 guidance confirmed

The facts: yesterday, LR released Q1 2018 results which were not far from our

estimates; LR confirmed its FY18 outlook with revenues of EUR 165/170m and

EBITDA of EUR 25m.

Our analysis: here follow the Q1 2018 P&L results and our estimates.

Q1 revenues were 2.3% down in Italy, 13% down in the Rest of Europe, 10% up in

the Americas and 66% up in Asia/Rest of the world; Q1 results were almost in line

with our estimates until the Adjusted EBITDA line.

The net financial position (EUR -49m as at the end of 2017) came in at EUR 54m,

worse than we had expected, but only because the company spent ~EUR 3m for

the lay-offs in the quarter.

The management stated that the effort to restructure the automotive system

production footprint will come to an end in Q2 (the EUR 1.5m of restructuring

charges across 2018 were confirmed); Q2, started well, should see a further top line

acceleration and margin improvement. It seems that the commercial activity is doing

pretty well with possible deal announcements in Q2.

Conclusion & Action: Q1 results were in line and we don’t need to adjust our

current estimates.

We believe that the core business of automotive systems offers interesting upside,

but at the same time believe that mounting tensions with Iran and a possible new

round of sanctions against Russia can represent threats for LR and the reaching of

its FY18 guidance. We keep our cautious stance unchanged.

Landi Renzo

Italy | Automobiles & Parts

AUTOMOBILES & PARTS Landi Renzo (Neutral) Italy and India try to revive their military co-operation


Analyst(s)

Gabriele Gambarova

[email protected]

+39 02 43 444 289

Neutral

1.58


1.60




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg LR.MI/LR IM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 178


Free float 33%


Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 295.65


Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 5.60/22.41/221.10


Sales (m) 206 171 177

EBITDA (m) 5 23 27

EBITDA margin 2.3% 13.1% 15.0%

EBIT (m) (11) 10 17

EBIT margin nm 5.8% 9.7%


ROCE -2.6% 7.7% 11.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 49 54 49




EV/Sales 0.9 1.1 1.0

EV/EBITDA 39.9 8.6 7.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14.8 8.0 7.0

EV/EBIT nm 19.4 10.9

P/E (adj.) 42.7 28.9 13.1

P/BV 3.1 2.5 2.1

OpFCF yield 19.1% -1.7% 5.1%


EPS (adj.) 0.04 0.05 0.12

BVPS 0.51 0.64 0.76

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shareholders

Trust Landi 59%; Aerius IH 5%; Impax AM 3%;

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


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LANDI RENZO Stoxx Automobiles & Parts (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Banca MPS


Juliet disposal completed

The facts: Cerved and Quaestio announced overnight they have completed the

acquisition of BMPS' NPL recovery platform (Juliet).

Our analysis: The Juliet platform will provide special servicing activities on NPL

portfolios, and will service at least 80% of the new NPL inflows that will be

generated by BMPS over the next 10Y (with an initial value of approx. EUR 4.5bn)

in addition to other NPL arising from the securitization of BPMS assets as well as

other securitization transactions promoted by Quaestio (approx. EUR 17.6bn).

The total consideration to acquire the platform is equal to EUR 52.6m as expected.

In addition, a potential total earn-out of up to EUR 33.8m, payable in two tranches,

will be subject to the achievement of certain economic results, following the

approval of Juliet financial statements as of 31 Dec 2020 and 31 Dec 2025.

The deal follows the completion by BMPS on 10th May of the securitization

transaction for the sale of a bad loan portfolio of c. EUR 24.1bn.

As a reminder, the securitization vehicle issued the following notes:

Senior notes for EUR 2,918m, which will be assisted by State guarantee (GACS),

will be initially retained by BMPS, which may subsequently consider their partial

placement on the market. The senior notes’ tranching exceeds Restructuring

Plan expectations, which contemplated a class of Non-Investment Grade notes

for approximately EUR 500m that will therefore not be issued.

Mezzanine notes for EUR 847.6m, unrated, which were sold on 22 Dec 2017 to the

Italian Recovery Fund managed by Quaestio.

Junior notes for EUR 565m, unrated, which will be sold to the Italian Recovery Fund

managed by Quaestio after having obtained GACS on the senior notes.

The two transactions highlight the steady achievement of goals set by the BMPS

Restructuring Plan which was announced on 5 July 2017.

Following the much better than expected Q1 18 results and positive guidance from

mgmt., we revise our expectations on Banca MPS’ fundamentals. We increase our

Adj. EPS estimates from EUR 0.25 to 0.32 in FY18, from EUR 0.35 to 0.38 in FY19

and from EUR 0.38 to 0.40 in FY20, mainly on the back of lower operating costs and

lower loan impairments (61bps cost of risk mgmt. guidance).

Please note our EUR 430m FY19 net profit estimate is still 25% lower than EUR

570m restructuring plan target.

Conclusion & Action: On the back of our higher EPS estimates, we increase our

target price from EUR 3.4 to 3.8 and reiterate Buy on the stock, still trading at one-

third of BV.

Banca MPS

Italy | Banks

BANKS Banca MPS (Buy) Q1 results almost in line – FY18 guidance confirmed


Analyst(s)

Luigi Tramontana

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Buy

3.28


3.80

3.40


from Target Price: EUR


Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BMPS.MI/BMPS IM


Current N° of shares (m) 1,140

Free float 25%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 22.39/-7.71/-78.25


Total Revenue (m) 4,026 3,541 3,564

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 1,087 914 979

Operating profit (OP) -4,237 335 259

Earnings Before Tax (m) -4,186 185 259

Net Profit (adj.) (m) -263 510 429

Shareholders Equity (m) 10,429 10,789 11,218

Tangible BV (m) 10,421 10,781 11,210

RWA (m) 60,600 68,418 68,923

ROTE -3.2% 4.8% 3.9%

Total Capital Ratio (B3) 14.9% 15.9% 15.3%

Cost/Income 63.2% 68.6% 65.5%

NPL ratio (gross) 28.2% 9.0% 10.0%

P/PPP 4.1 4.1 3.8

P/E (adj.) nm 7.3 8.7

P/BV 0.4 0.3 0.3

P/TBV 0.4 0.3 0.3

Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

PPPPS 0.95 0.80 0.86

EPS (adj.) -0.23 0.45 0.38

BVPS 9.14 9.45 9.83

TBVPS 9.14 9.45 9.83

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shareholders

Italian Government 68%; Generali 4%;

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


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BANCA MPS Stoxx Banks (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Commerzbank


Q1 pretax profit slightly above our forecast

The facts: Commerzbank has just reported a slightly better than expected pretax

profit which was down by 13% yoy to EUR 289m (equinet: EUR 270m). Revenues

were higher than expected (delta of EUR 42m) which was however more than offset

by higher than expected costs (delta of EUR 66m), mainly due to high investments.

Risk provisions declined by 61% yoy to EUR 77m and were thus well below our

forecast of EUR 120m. Tax rate of 2% was very low (equinet: 28%) and thus net

profit was with EUR 250m (+6% yoy) well above our forecast of EUR 169m. CT1

ratio was down by 80 bps qoq to 13.3% which resulted mainly from the first-time

implementation of IFRS 9. Importantly CBK sticks to its cost target for the full-year of

around EUR 7bn and has confirmed its other targets for 2018 as well.

Our analysis:

Conclusion & Action: All in all Q1 results are in line with expectations if adjusting

for the very low tax rate which should not be sustainable.

Commerzbank

Germany | Banks

BANKS Commerzbank (Neutral) Juliet disposal completed


Analyst(s)

Philipp Häßler, CFA

[email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

Neutral

10.60


13.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CBKG.DE/CBK GR



Free float 84%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.43/-16.38/12.02


Total Revenue (m) 8,990 8,712 9,056

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 1,911 1,750 2,315

Operating profit (OP) 1,130 1,200 1,765

Earnings Before Tax (m) 495 1,200 1,765

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 156 801 1,215


Tangible BV (m) 27,370 28,171 29,136

RWA (m) 171,000 174,420 177,908

ROTE 0.6% 2.9% 4.2%


Cost/Income 78.7% 79.9% 74.4%

NPL ratio (gross) 1.3% 1.2% 1.1%

P/PPP 8.2 7.6 5.7

P/E (adj.) nm 16.6 10.9

P/BV 0.5 0.4 0.4

P/TBV 0.6 0.5 0.5


PPPPS 1.53 1.40 1.85

EPS (adj.) 0.12 0.64 0.97

BVPS 23.06 23.70 24.47

TBVPS 21.85 22.49 23.26

DPS 0.00 0.20 0.30

Shareholders

German government 16%;

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

Apr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mrz 18 Apr 18 Mai 18

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COMMERZBANK Stoxx Banks (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Commerzbank - Q1 2018

EUR m Q1 2018 Q1 2018e Q1 2017 yoy Consensus delta

Revenues 2,302 2,260 2,392 -4% 2,272 1%

of which NII* 1,390 1,400 1,464 -5% 1,369 2%

Expenses 1,936 1,870 1,865 4% 1,889 2%

CIR 84.1% 82.7% 78.0% 613 BP 83.1% 1%

Risk provis. 77 120 195 -61% 107 -28%

EBT 289 270 332 -13% 274 5%

Net income 250 169 235 6% 177 41%

*: incl. fair value result Sources: Commerzbank, equinet Research

Crédit Agricole SA


Soft patch for the CIB, as for peers

The facts: Q1-2018 results below expectations due to the wholesale activities.

Our analysis: Revenues came in at EUR4,909m (consensus at EUR5,013m) up

4.4% (+2.5% on an underlying basis) and operating charges were EUR3,401m vs

EUR3,348m (+2.5%), i.e., GOP up 2.5% at EUR1,508m (vs EUR1,665m). The cost

of risk was down 12.6% at EUR314m (vs EUR350m), i.e. 29bp (MTP guidance at

50bp). Net attributable income was EUR856m (vs EUR901m) but EUR788m on an

underlying basis (negative goodwill income of EUR86m). LCL posted revenues

down 5.0% (-0.6% excluding renegotiation fees and early repayments) at EUR858m

(vs EUR855m) with charges under control (-2.4%) excluding the SRF. Revenues for

the retail bank in Italy rose a strong 17.6% due to the integration of three savings

banks (l-f-l trend not specified). The latter saw their C/I fall from 118% in Q4-2017 to

95.5%. Their contribution remains a negative EUR4m. Specialised financing

revenues were up 0.4%. NBI for the insurance division was down 0.4% at

EUR627m (vs EUR623m), and that for Amundi rose 1.6% l-f-l (see our comment on

Amundi). Revenues for the CIB posted a sharp decline in of 11.5% to EUR1,322m

(vs EUR1,457m) with revenues for the market activities down 20% and a 2.5%

decline for structured finance. The CT1 was down 30bp at 11.4% (IFRS 9: -24bp).

Conclusion & Action: As was the case for BNPP and SG, CASA was not spared a

soft patch for the CIB (even if the model is less exposed) and a negative base effect

for the retail bank in France. However, the charges and cost of risk remain under

control despite a EUR80m increase in the SRF.

Crédit Agricole SA

France | Banks

BANKS Crédit Agricole SA (Accumulate) Q1 pretax profit slightly above our forecast


Analyst(s)

Pierre Chedeville

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 97

Accumulate

13.41


17.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CAGR.PA/ACA FP



Free float 40%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.19/-1.18/-6.13


Total Revenue (m) 18,631 19,660 20,333

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 6,432 7,049 7,646

Operating profit (OP) 5,012 5,731 6,307

Earnings Before Tax (m) 5,955 6,023 6,632

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 3,650 3,985 4,279


Tangible BV (m) 42,635 43,738 44,920

RWA (m) 296,400 299,660 302,657

ROTE 6.7% 7.2% 7.6%


Cost/Income 65.5% 64.1% 62.4%

NPL ratio (gross) 4.0% 3.7% 3.5%

P/PPP 6.1 5.4 5.0

P/E (adj.) 11.3 10.3 10.3

P/BV 0.7 0.6 0.6

P/TBV 0.9 0.9 0.8


PPPPS 2.26 2.48 2.69

EPS (adj.) 1.22 1.30 1.30

BVPS 20.41 20.86 21.33

TBVPS 14.99 15.38 15.80

DPS 0.63 0.60 0.63

Shareholders

Employees 5%; SAS Rue La Boetie 54%;

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0


vvdsvdvsdy

CREDIT AGRICOLE SA Stoxx Banks (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Altri


1Q18 results and valuation update

The facts: Altri released its 1Q18 results on Friday after the market close in Lisbon.

The company booked revenues of EUR 173.4m, EBITDA of EUR 63.3m and net

income of EUR 32.6m. EBITDA margin was the highest on record (at least since

2008), reflecting an upbeat pulp market that seems to have gain unexpected

traction in 2018. This report provides details over the company’s first quarter results

and an update in valuation.

Our analysis: Pulp production reached 257.1 thousand tons o.w. 27.3 thousand of

dissolving, with the lower production level (-2.7% yoy) due to restrictions applied to

Celtejo mill by environmental authorities. Pulp sales stood at 247.5 thousand tons in

the quarter o.w. 24.5 thousand of dissolving pulp. The company cited the need to

normalize inventories and adverse weather conditions that affected operations in

sea ports to justify the 9.8% yoy decline in sales.

Turnover in the quarter benefited from higher pulp prices, both yoy and qoq, with

euro denominated prices also at highs. Operating costs were down qoq but more

expressively yoy, with financial results reaching EUR -1.9m and a net debt at the

end of the quarter of EUR 365.2m. Capex in the quarter was of EUR 23.4m, with the

change in net debt vs. the end of 2017 of EUR 24m.

In the press release following the results announcement, the company expects that

the current price environment should remain in place in the second quarter of the

year, with also an increase in sales volumes. Pulp prices have been increasing

almost every month since the start of 2017, currently standing above USD 1,000 per

ton. According to PPPC, global demand for hardwood pulp was up 5% in 2017 (+1.6

million tons) to 33.9 million tons. Demand from Europe was flat in 2017, with China

experiencing a rise of 12.8%. In what concerns eucalyptus pulp, global demand was

up 3.6% (+7.4% in China).

Also according to PPPC, hardwood demand was up 4.2% yoy in the first quarter of

2018, amounting to an extra 340 thousand tons. Chinese consumption was up c.

3% yoy and 6% in Europe. The annualized growth expected for 2018, based on the

Q1 figure, is of 1.360 million tons, which is lower than the 2017 number but slightly

above the normalized 1 million tons long-term average.

Our current valuation of Altri yields capacity and financial metrics that compare well

with the latest industry transactions. We reach an EV/EBITDA 2018e of 6.8x and

also estimate higher FCF to ton vs. Fibria in the next three years. Again, the

valuation is highly sensitive to changes in pulp prices and EURUSD, demanding a

continuous monitoring of conditions going forward.

Conclusion & Action: We’ve increased our pulp price forecasts for the next years,

with our forward price curve better matching market conditions in the shorter

maturities. We continue to view pulp prices well supported in 2019-2020 as no new

large capacity additions are planned. With no major expansions or greenfield

projects and inefficient/polluting capacity leaving the market (namely in China),

debottlenecking projects should not be able to absorb a normalized level of demand

growth (of c. 1 million tons per year in hardwood pulp). We’ve reached a fair value of

EUR 7.60 per share and a Buy recommendation.

Altri

Portugal | Basic Resources

BASIC RESOURCES Altri (Buy) Soft patch for the CIB, as for peers


Analyst(s)

Carlos Jesus

[email protected]

+351 21 389 6812

Artur Amaro

[email protected]

+351 213 89 6822

Buy

6.39


7.60

5.30



from Accumulate

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ALSS.LS/ALTR PL



Free float 34%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 298



Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 15.55/44.90/52.32


Sales (m) 666 734 775

EBITDA (m) 191 267 306

EBITDA margin 28.7% 36.4% 39.5%

EBIT (m) 137 210 251

EBIT margin 20.6% 28.6% 32.3%


ROCE 12.2% -6.7% -39.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 389 321 192




EV/Sales 2.2 2.2 1.9

EV/EBITDA 7.6 6.1 4.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.6 6.1 4.9

EV/EBIT 10.6 7.8 6.0

P/E (adj.) 11.0 9.2 7.5

P/BV 2.7 2.8 2.2

OpFCF yield 7.6% 10.9% 14.5%


EPS (adj.) 0.47 0.69 0.85

BVPS 1.92 2.32 2.86

DPS 0.25 0.30 0.30

Shareholders

Management 61%; Bestinver 5%;

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5


vvdsvdvsdy

ALTRI Stoxx Basic Resources (Rebased)

Source: Factset

SURTECO


Good start into 2018, guidance confirmed

Overall, Surteco reported results as we have had expected. Q1 sales

increased 10% yoy to EUR 187m in line with our estimates. Main growth driver

was the first-time consolidation of Probos in the plastics division. On the

other side, the relatively weaker USD and a change in product mix in the paper

division weighed negatively on quarterly sales. Q1 EBIT increased 25% to

EUR 13.4m (equinet: EUR 13.3m) and was thus also in line with our estimates.

Surteco’s management confirmed the outlook for 2018. We expect a positive

start for the shares today.

As in the previous quarters, the acquired Probos group proved to be a solid

contributor to sales and earnings. Plastics division’s sales increased 25%,

despite FX headwinds, mainly from the USD. We estimate that the majority from

the increase stems from Probos. Similarly, Plastics division’s EBIT increased by

51% to EUR 8.2m (equinet: EUR 7.7m), which is equivalent to an EBIT margin

of 9%. Therefore, Surteco was able to improve its plastics division margins

further (Q4 2017: 6.9% and Q3 2017: 8.3%), underlining the enhancing effects

from Probos.

The paper division exhibited sales in line with our expectations, but earnings

that were slightly below our estimates. The reasons for the decline in the

division’s earnings were raw material headwinds and changes in the product

mix. Here, the development of titanium dioxide prices, which account for c. 40%

of the raw décor paper prices, will be of interest going forward.

Due to a significant increase in working capital (particularly receivables), Q1

operating cash flow was negative. However, as this is usually a seasonal

pattern, we would expect a normalisation over the course of the year.

Surteco’s management confirmed its 2018 guidance with sales ranging from

EUR 725m to EUR 750m and EBIT between EUR 49m and 53m. Assuming no

significant deterioration in the raw material market, this looks achievable in our

view.

SURTECO

Germany | Basic Resources

BASIC RESOURCES SURTECO (Buy) 1Q18 results and valuation update


Analyst(s)

Dr. Knud Hinkel, CFA

[email protected]

+ 49 69 58997 419

Dustin Mildner

[email protected]

+49 69 58997-438

Buy

26.55


30.50




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SURG.DE/SUR GR



Free float 40%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 7.27/0.95/15.46


Sales (m) 690 736 754

EBITDA (m) 83 97 98

EBITDA margin 12.0% 13.2% 13.0%

EBIT (m) 41 47 49

EBIT margin 5.9% 6.4% 6.5%


ROCE 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 190 169 147




EV/Sales 0.9 0.8 0.8

EV/EBITDA 7.5 6.1 5.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.7 6.4 6.1

EV/EBIT 15.3 12.7 11.7

P/E (adj.) 15.1 13.0 12.2

P/BV 1.2 1.1 1.1

OpFCF yield 9.6% 8.1% 9.2%


EPS (adj.) 1.78 2.05 2.18

BVPS 22.33 23.58 24.77

DPS 0.80 1.00 1.10

Shareholders

Pool and Family Shareholders 55%; Lazard Freres Gestion

SAS 5%;

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29


vvdsvdvsdy

SURTECO CDAX (Rebased)

Source: Factset

SURTECO - Review Q1 2018

Revenues 186.7 169.7 10.0% 187.4 -0.4% -3.2% from currencies

of which: SBU Paper 95.8 97.2 -1.4% 96.0 -0.3%

of which: SBU Plastics 90.9 72.8 24.9% 91.5 -0.7% first-time consolidation of Probos

of which: Consolidation 0.0 -0.2 nm -0.2 nm

EBIT 13.4 10.7 24.8% 13.3 0.5%

EBIT Margin 7.2% 6.3% 85 BP 7.1% 6 BP

of which: SBU Paper 7.1 7.6 -6.1% 7.3 -2.7% increase in raw material prices / product mix

of which: SBU Plastics 8.2 5.4 50.9% 7.7 7.2%

of which: Consolidation -1.9 -2.3 nm -1.6 nm

Source: SURTECO, equinet Research

CommentEUR m Q1 2018 Q1 2017 % YoYDelta vs

actualequinet

Anima


Q1-18 better than expected; positive message from CC

The facts: Anima published its Q1-18 results yesterday during trading hours, followed by a

conference call.

Anima: Q1-18 results

Q1-18 Y/Y A/E Q1 18e

Q1-18 Cons

Q1-17

Net commissions 71 39% -2% 72 n.a. 51

Performance fees 15 615% 51% 10 n.a. 2

Other income 7 0% 9% 6 n.a. 7

Total revenues 92 55% 5% 88 86 60

Operating expense -22 35% 4% -21 n.a. -16

Other income/costs -7 -13% -11% -8 n.a. -8

EBT 63 80% 8% 59 54 35

Net profit 45 74% 9% 41 37 26

Adj. Net profit 48 51% 6% 45 n.a. 32

Source: Company data, Banca Akros estimates

Our analysis: we underline that Q1-18 represents the first period of consolidation of Aletti

SGR’s results in Anima’s P&L. Anima recorded net inflows for c. EUR 600m in Q1-18; total

AuM achieved EUR 93.8bn, +27% Y/Y not taking into account Aletti’s AuM at the end of Q1-17.

Net commissions closed at c. EUR 71m, +39% Y/Y, with net commission margin on avg.

assets improving at c. 7.5bps vs 7bps in Q1-17 (6.3bp in Q4-17), a little bit lower than 7.7bps

we estimated. We understand that the improvement could come from Aletti’s assets, which

have a better profitability compared to Anima stand alone. For the same reason, performance

fees achieved EUR 15m during the quarter much higher than EUR 2m recorded in Q1-17 and

compared to EUR 10m implied in our numbers. The operating costs were under control (cost

income ratio, ex performance fees, closed at 28.3%), higher than we assumed, due to the

performance fees, almost in line with Q1-17 but better than 28.8% in Q4-17. The increase in

revenues and Anima’s operating leverage lead the net profit to EUR 45m, +74% Y/Y, +9% vs

our assumptions and compared to EUR 37m in consensus’ numbers collected by the company.

ANM’s net financial position closed at around EUR -290m vs EUR -276m at the end of 2017.

Conference call main takeaways – Performance fees (EUR 15m in Q1-18) are sustainable

depending on market condition; despite the good Q1-18 results, more synergies could be

extracted on the cost side in the next quarters of the year; the new LTIP KPIs (growth vs 3x

2017A EPS equal to 23% in 2018-2020E, to 30.5% in 2019 – 2021E and to 35.5% in 2020-

2022E) are ambitious but achievable considering Anima’s positioning in retail segment, the less

competitive pressures on Institutional segment market in which the company increased its

weight and the fast growing scale also through M&A; according to the company, Ebitda, net of

performance fees, considering BBPM and Poste deals and no growth ought to achieve c. EUR

200m in 2018 vs EUR 55m in Q1-18, in line with our assumptions; despite the dilution expected

in the top line, the operating leverage is likely to ensure sustainable profitability going forward;

in the next months, net inflows could be pushed by BBPM bonds expiring (EUR 4bn), which

could be transformed in AM products; Anima is not worried about MIFID II considering that its

gross pricing (1.32%) is below the average for retail customers in Italy.

Conclusion & Action: CC mood and results could have a positive impact on the stock. We

reiterate our investment case: with the acquisition of Aletti SGR and the signature of the

partnerships with Poste and BBPM, Anima will improve its competitive position, in terms of

scale, distribution channels, business mix and skills. We stick to Accumulate.

Anima

Italy | Financial Services Banks

FINANCIAL SERVICES BANKS Anima (Accumulate) Good start into 2018, guidance confirmed


Analyst(s)

Enrico Esposti, CIIA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4022

Accumulate

6.14


7.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ANIM.MI/ANIM IM



Free float 75%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 7.16/9.16/15.13


Total Revenue (m) 257 345 355

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 174 243 251

Operating profit (OP) 174 243 251

Earnings Before Tax (m) 160 229 241

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 134 178 182

Shareholders Equity (m) 870 972 1,056

Tangible BV (m) 0 0 0

RWA (m) 0 0 0

ROTE 15.7% 19.3% 17.9%


Cost/Income 32.5% 29.6% 29.2%

P/PPP 9.5 7.8 9.3

P/E (adj.) 12.3 10.7 12.8

P/BV 1.9 1.9 2.2

P/TBV nm nm nm


PPPPS 0.56 0.79 0.66

EPS (adj.) 0.43 0.58 0.48

BVPS 2.82 3.15 2.78

TBVPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

DPS 0.19 0.22 0.24

Shareholders

BPM 15%; Poste Italiane 10%;

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18

vvdsvdvsdy

ANIMA FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)

Source: Factset

TIP Tamburi Investment Partners


TIP Q1 18 results

The facts: TIP published its Q1 18 results yesterday after-market.

Our analysis: Net income was EUR 27.3m vs. EUR 18.5m in Q1 17. During the

quarter TIP has slightly decreased its investment in Moncler and FCA and increased

its investment in Prysmian.

Conclusion & Action: The Italian market is still buoyant and TIP investments

among the top performers (see Moncler, Ferrari.. and non-luxury stocks in TIP

portfolio).

TIP Tamburi Investment Partners

Italy | Financial Services Holdings

FINANCIAL SERVICES HOLDINGS TIP Tamburi Investment Partners (Buy) Q1-18 better than expected; positive message from CC


Analyst(s)

Giada Cabrino, CIIA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Buy

6.22


5.90

-5.1%Upside/Downside Potential



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TIP.MI/TIP IM



Free float 69%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 1.30/5.42/19.04

Total Net Asset Value 0.0 0%

NAVPS (EUR) nm nm

Share price*: EUR 6.22 6.22

Shareholders

Francesco Angelini 11%; Giovanni Tamburi 7%;

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4


vvdsvdvsdy

TIP TAMBURI INVESTMENT PARTNERS FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)

Source: Factset

CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A.


Good start into 2018 – Guidance for FY 2018 confirmed

The facts: This morning CORESTATE published its Q1 2018 results which were

better than expected.

Our analysis: Due to the recent acquisitions Aggregate Revenues improved from

EUR 17.0m to EUR 61.9m in Q1 2018 which was broadly in-line with our forecast of

EUR 60.9m (consensus: EUR 60.9m). Contrary to the usual seasonality of the real

estate sector CORESTATE showed a good first quarter which was also supported

by a stable transaction pipeline.

EBITDA amounted to EUR 37.4m which was below our forecast of EUR 38.8m.

Note that G&A included EUR 1.4m cost of management board realignment. Net

Profit reached EUR 28.5m and was thus better than expected (equinet: EUR 25.8m)

and included a positive accounting effect on financial result of c. EUR 3m mainly

from derivatives.

Taking into account some adjustments for one-off items (EUR 1.4m management

realignment costs) Adjusted EBITDA was fully in-line with our estimate of EUR

38.8m and better than consensus (EUR 37.1m). Adjusted Net Profit improved to

EUR 34.7m, above our estimate of EUR 30.8m and above consensus (EUR 27.4m).

Note that one-off items included the depreciation for management contracts,

management realignment and DTA & non-controlling interests.

Guidance for FY 2018 confirmed: CORESTATE sticks to its forecast for FY 2018

and still expects Aggregate Revenues of between EUR 230m and 240m (equinet:

EUR 243.5m), Adjusted EBITDA is expected between EUR 155m and 165m

(equinet: EUR 155.1m) and Adjusted Net Profit should be in the range of EUR 120m

and 130m (equinet: EUR 123.1m).

Conclusion & Action: Aggregate Revenues increased to EUR 61.9m (equinet:

EUR 60.9m/ consensus: EUR 60.9m) and Adjusted Net Profit reached EUR 34.7m,

above our forecast of EUR 30.8m and above consensus (EUR 27.4m). As of March

2018 AuM amounted to c. EUR 22bn (vs Dec. 2017: EUR 22bn). Main drivers for

the strong first quarter were revenue and cost synergies as a result of the

acquisitions of Hannover Leasing, Helvetic Financial Services and ATOS in 2017.

CORESTATE sticks to its forecast for FY 2018 which we regard as achievable.

Overall, we see the company well positioned to further grow organically and via

acquisitions and attract additional clients with its diversified product range among

various asset classes. Thus, we stick to our Buy recommendation with a TP of EUR

72.00.

CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A.

Germany | Financial Services Industrials

FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRIALS CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A. (Buy) TIP Q1 18 results


Analyst(s)

Katharina Mayer

[email protected]

+49 69 58997-432


[email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

Buy

46.75


72.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CCAP.DE/CCAP GR



Free float 59%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.06/-6.50/39.89


Sales (m) 195 243 262

EBITDA (m) 105 155 170

EBITDA margin 53.7% 63.7% 65.1%

EBIT (m) 84 134 149

EBIT margin 43.0% 54.9% 57.1%


ROCE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 261 190 117




EV/Sales 6.2 4.1 3.5

EV/EBITDA 11.6 6.4 5.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 11.8 6.4 5.3

EV/EBIT 14.5 7.4 6.1

P/E (adj.) 9.8 8.1 7.2

P/BV 1.7 1.9 1.7

OpFCF yield -11.4% 11.4% 13.0%


EPS (adj.) 5.43 5.78 6.51

BVPS 32.05 24.89 27.44

DPS 2.00 2.60 2.93

Shareholders

Flygon Holding LLC (Ralph Winter) 18%; Management 5%;

Norbert Ketterer 10%; Sandra Ketterer 9%;

30

35

40

45

50

55

60


vvdsvdvsdy

CORESTATE CAPITAL HOLDING S.A. CDAX (Rebased)

Source: Factset

CORESTATE - Review Q1 2018

EUR m Q1 2018 Q1 2017 % yoy equinet delta Cons. delta

Aggregate Revenues 61.9 17.0 265% 60.9 2% 60.9 2%

EBITDA 37.4 5.9 537% 38.8 -4% n.a. n.a.

Adjusted EBITDA 38.8 n.a. n.a. 38.8 0% 37.1 5%

Net Profit* 28.5 5.6 411% 25.8 10% n.a. n.a.

Adjusted Net Profit 34.7 n.a. n.a. 30.8 13% 27.4 27%

Source: CORESTATE, equinet Research *before minority interests Source: CORESTATE, Vara Consensus, equinet Research

Marr


Q1 18 results: good recovery in profitability

The facts: Marr published its Q1 18 results yesterday during trading time.

Q1 17a Q1 18a % Chg

Sales 328.3 336.5 2.5%

EBITDA 15.4 16.4 6.5%

% margin 4.7% 4.9%

Our analysis:

Marr reported Q1 18 revenues at EUR 336.5m, up by 2.5% Y/Y (in line with

Akros est. EUR 335.5M +2.2%): in particular, Street market segment sales

increased by 6.5% Y/Y, which benefited from Easter sales; the sales of National

Account category increased by 9.0% Y/Y driven by the sub-segment of Chains &

Groups of hotels and restaurants and the sales to clients in the Wholesale category

decreased by 14.2% due to scarcity of fished frozen seafood (i.e. octopus fishing

campaign).

Q1 18 EBITDA reached EUR 16.4m, up by 6.5% (higher than Akros es. EUR

15.8m +2.6%): the growth in profitability was due to a slightly better gross margin

and to a control of all operating costs.

Improvement of Cash conversion cycle from 66 to 59 days was driven by that of

the days of Receivable.

Outlook on 2018 confirmed: the visibility on the rest of the year remains positive:

1) the sales trend in April brings sales to Street Market and National Account clients

at the end of the first four months in line with the growth objectives for the year; 2)

according to views of tourist and foodservice operators the reference market is

expected to confirm a positive trend in the coming Summer season. Based on the

results and on these indications, the management feels confident to achieve the

targets announced at the beginning of the year: 1) sales increase higher than the

reference market growth, still driven by the organic growth of the street Market

segment around 3.5% (vs expected market growth around 1.5%); 2) stable

operating margins compared to the previous year; 3) keeping the absorption of the

trade net working capital under control

Our estimates: based on Q1 18 results, we confirm our FY 18 estimates of sales

and profitability, which are in line with the foregoing indications. Based on the further

improvement in the trade NWC and based on Q1 18 Net Debt of EUR 186.7m, we

set FY 18 Net Debt at EUR 159m.

Conclusion & Action: based on our revised estimates and on the roll-over of our

DCF model (WACC 6.56% and perpetual growth 2.0%), we move our target price

from EUR 23.60 to EUR 25.80 per share. Neutral recommendation confirmed.

Marr

Italy | Food & Drug Retailers

FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS Marr (Neutral) Good start into 2018 – Guidance for FY 2018 confirmed


Analyst(s)

Paola Saglietti

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Neutral

25.36


25.80

23.60




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MARR.MI/MARR IM



Free float 49%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.88/20.30/12.51


Sales (m) 1,625 1,682 1,745

EBITDA (m) 116 119 125


EBIT (m) 97 101 108

EBIT margin 6.0% 6.0% 6.2%


ROCE 15.6% 15.5% 17.0%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 158 159 126




EV/Sales 1.0 1.1 1.0

EV/EBITDA 13.4 15.2 14.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.4 15.2 14.2

EV/EBIT 16.0 17.9 16.4

P/E (adj.) 28.3 31.8 29.6

P/BV 4.6 5.1 4.8

OpFCF yield 5.0% 2.8% 4.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.76 0.80 0.86

BVPS 4.64 4.94 5.29

DPS 0.74 0.76 0.77

Shareholders

Cremonini S.p.a. 51%;

20

21

22

23

24

25

26


vvdsvdvsdy

MARR FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Cembre


Solid results in Q1'18

The facts: Cembre released its Q1 18 results yesterday.

Our analysis:

Cembre reported solid results in Q1 ’18 with sales and EBITDA growing faster than expected and above our trends for the year of sales and EBITDA growth of +8%/+10% respectively. .

EBITDA grew by 12.6% from EUR 8.91m in Q1’17 to EUR 10.0m of Q1’18. This

performance was due to, the cost of goods sold and personnel costs as a

percentage of sales declining over the corresponding period in 2017, the latter

despite the increase in the average number of employees from 677 in the Q1-17 to

726 in the Q1-18.

EBIT for the Q1’18 amounted to EUR 8.3m up 13.6% on EUR 7.4m in the Q1-

17. Below EBIT, the company reported almost immaterial currency translation loss

of EUR 98 thousand as compared with a EUR 65 thousand loss recorded in the

Q1’17.

The net profit increased by 22.1 % (from EUR 5.1m in Q1’17 to EUR 6.23m)

thanks to the reduced taxe rate due to the patent box effects

The consolidated net financial position of the Group declined from a surplus

of €26.7 million at March 31, 2017, to a surplus of €18.5 million at March 31, 2018.

Among events subsequent to March 31, 2018 Cembre underlines the German

company Ikuma GmbH & Co and Ikuma Verwaltungs GmbH acquisition that was

made against the payment of a price of EUR 6,3mn in cash representing the

Enterprise Value of the two companies. A further and deferred amount of EUR 2mn

will be paid in four annual tranche contingent on the verification of specific

conditions.

In the last the Shareholders’ Meeting of April 26, 2018 the Board approved the

start of a program for the purchase of own shares, in order to support new

investment opportunities, and announced to close to close 2018 reporting a

considerable growth in turnover and profits on the previous year. We highlight to

investors that as of April 2018 sales growth was up 7.8% or about in line with our full

year forecast for the year of 7.5%.

Conclusion & Action: We are in the process of updating our estimates following

the acquisition of above meanwhile we confirm our Rating.

Cembre

Italy | General Industrials

GENERAL INDUSTRIALS Cembre (Neutral) Q1 18 results: good recovery in profitability


Analyst(s)

Andrea Bonfà

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4269

Neutral

27.40


22.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CEMB.MI/CMB IM



Free float 26%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 14.17/26.85/41.60


Sales (m) 133 143 148

EBITDA (m) 33 37 38

EBITDA margin 25.2% 25.9% 25.9%

EBIT (m) 27 30 31

EBIT margin 20.4% 20.9% 20.9%


ROCE 15.5% 17.0% 17.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (20) (28) (36)

Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.2 -0.2

Debt/EBITDA -0.6 -0.8 -0.9

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (655.6) high high

EV/Sales 2.7 3.1 2.9

EV/EBITDA 10.5 12.0 11.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.5 12.0 11.3

EV/EBIT 13.0 14.8 14.0

P/E (adj.) 16.1 20.8 20.0

P/BV 2.6 3.1 2.9

OpFCF yield 2.8% 4.6% 4.6%


EPS (adj.) 1.34 1.32 1.37

BVPS 8.42 8.93 9.50

DPS 0.70 0.80 0.80

Shareholders

Rosani Family 70%; Lazard 2%; Financier De L'Echiquier

1.48%;

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28


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CEMBRE FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Yoox Net-A-Porter


Q1 18 revenues results

The facts: YNAP released its Q1 18 trading statement yesterday after market

closure (no conf. call).

Our analysis: A brief reading of YNAP trading statement could be helpful to better

understand the luxury online dynamics. Q1 18 revenues were up 7.9% at constant

forex (+0.5% reported). Organic growth was 10.4%. Multibrand in-season grew

14.1%, Multibrand off-season grew 2%, Gross merchandising value of the online

flagship stores was up 21.8%. Italy, NAM and Asia Pacific were the fastest growing

countries.

All KPI’s improved but the AOV (slightly down due to forex).

The lesson we learn is that the online is still growing strongly; in addition positive

surprise was represented by Italy and the US, this quarter.

Conclusion & Action: We remind readers that Richemont launched a takeover bid

on 100% YNAP shares aimed at the delisting. Richemont has reached the 95%,

squeeze out threshold.

Yoox Net-A-Porter

Italy | General Retailers

GENERAL RETAILERS Yoox Net-A-Porter (Neutral) Solid results in Q1'18


Analyst(s)

Giada Cabrino, CIIA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Neutral

37.90


38.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg YNAP.MI/YNAP IM



Free float 59%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.29/0.24/53.69


Sales (m) 1,871 2,091 2,427

EBITDA (m) 143 162 210


EBIT (m) 52 43 71

EBIT margin 2.8% 2.1% 2.9%


ROCE 2.4% 1.9% 2.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (106) (37) (42)

Net Debt/Equity -0.1 0.0 0.0

Debt/EBITDA -0.7 -0.2 -0.2


EV/Sales 1.9 1.8 2.1

EV/EBITDA 24.4 23.9 24.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 22.5 22.1 22.8

EV/EBIT 67.1 89.9 71.3

P/E (adj.) nm nm nm

P/BV 1.9 2.0 2.5

OpFCF yield 0.9% -2.0% -0.1%


EPS (adj.) 0.52 0.44 0.63

BVPS 14.48 14.63 14.98

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shareholders

CFR 25%; Renzo Rosso 6%; Federico Marchetti 6%; Alabbar

enterprises 4%;

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38


vvdsvdvsdy

YOOX NET-A-PORTER FTSE MIB (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Terveystalo


TERVEYSTALO

EURm OP Cons. Diff. OP Cons. Diff.

Sales 210.0 212.2 -1% 770 776 -1%

EBITDA - adjusted 30 31 -3% 113 115 -2%

Margin 14.3 % 14.6 %

Total EBIT 20 21 -3% 73 73 0%

Total EBIT margin 9.6 % 9.8 % 9.5 % 9.4 %

PTP 19 20 -5% 69 69 0%

EPS 0.22 0.14 57% 0.53 0.51 4%

DPS 0.17 0.16 6%

Source : OP and FactSet

Q1/2018e 2018e

Q1 results out on Wednesday

The facts: Terveystalo reports its Q1 results on Wednesday at around 8.00 am

CET.

Our analysis: We expect Q1 sales to amount to EUR 210m and adjusted EBITDA

to be EUR 30m. Q1 earnings will include a non-recurring item of EUR 13m for

deferred tax assets that Terveystalo will now be able to utilise. The item in question

is included in our forecasts as deferred tax in the income statement, which explains

the difference in relation to consensus in terms of EPS. Otherwise, our forecasts are

marginally below consensus median (FactSet). Earnings will also include capital

gain of around EUR 6m for a real estate transaction. Diacor’s integration will bring

inorganic growth of around EUR 35m in 2018 for Terveystalo, but we also expect

that Terveystalo will grow organically this year (+6.6%). Some of the organic growth

results from minor acquisitions which the company includes in organic growth in its

own terminology. For example, Terveystalo acquired Lääkäriasema ILO in Q1 with

annual sales of EUR 0.9m.

Conclusion & Action: We repeat our Accumulate recommendation and our EUR

11.00 target price (13x EBITDA 2019E).

Terveystalo

Finland | Healthcare

HEALTHCARE Terveystalo (Accumulate) Q1 18 revenues results


Analyst(s)

Kimmo Stenvall

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4561

Accumulate

9.70


11.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TTALO.HE/TTALO FH



Free float 100%



Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 2.81/-2.17/


Sales (m) 690 770 815

EBITDA (m) 68 113 121


EBIT (m) 28 73 81

EBIT margin 4.1% 9.5% 10.0%


ROCE 2.8% 7.3% 8.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 256 190 149




EV/Sales 2.0 1.9 1.7

EV/EBITDA 20.4 12.7 11.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 20.4 12.7 11.5

EV/EBIT 49.4 19.5 17.1

P/E (adj.) nm 18.2 13.5

P/BV 2.5 2.4 2.2

OpFCF yield -13.8% 6.5% 7.5%


EPS (adj.) 0.04 0.53 0.72

BVPS 3.57 4.05 4.37

DPS 0.06 0.17 0.17

Shareholders

Varma 15%; EQT 11%; Helsingin Diakonissalaitoksen säätiö

11%;

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.6

Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18

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TERVEYSTALO OMXS All (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Fila


Q1 18E estimates

The facts: Fila is going to publish its Q1 18E results today after market closure

(conf. call @ 6pm CET, dial in: 0267688 and *0).

Our analysis: Q1 18 results won’t be a short term driver in our thinking, since the

current focus is on the ongoing acquisition of Pacon. However, it is reasonable to

expect positive organic growth in Q1 18 (our est. in the range of 1 / 2%) and mid-

single digit negative forex effect. We expect stable EBITDA margin adj. @ 14.5%.

We remind readers that Q1 17 was tough with 6.1% organic growth.

Conclusion & Action: The new acquisition can add EUR 1.6/sh to our valuation;

considering Fila + Pacon on a pro-forma basis, FY 19E EPS accretion is more than

20% (considering a EUR 100m capital increase @ current prices) including cost

synergies.

We remind readers that Fila announced the acquisition of the American company

Pacon on May 8th. Enterprise value is USD 325m + USD 15m tax benefits, for a

cash payment of USD 340m (around 8.9x EV/EBITDA). The transaction will be

financed by a medium/long term loan for a total amount of EUR 520m and a EUR

100m capital increase.

According to Fila, cost synergies are expected to be in the range of EUR 5 / 7m per

year once the new entity is at full steam.

Pacon is a US leader in the educational segment of the school sector and the art &

craft, with revenues of USD 241.6m (EUR 203m) and EBITDA of USD 38.2m (EUR

32m; EBITDA margin 15.8%, in line with FILA).

Fila

Italy | Household Goods

HOUSEHOLD GOODS Fila (Buy) Q1 results out on Wednesday


Analyst(s)

Giada Cabrino, CIIA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Buy

19.12


20.40




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FILA.MI/FILA IM



Free float 26%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 13.14/1.49/1.49

Shareholders

Pencil 66%; VEI 8%;

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5


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FILA FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e Sales (m) 510 540 551 EBITDA adj.(m) 80.6 89 93 EBITDA adj. margin 15.8% 16.5% 17.0% EBIT (m) 53 71 75 EBIT margin 10.4% 13.2% 13.6% Net Profit (adj.)(m) 34 45 46 ROCE 8.1% 9.1% 9.6% Net debt/(cash) (m) 240 187 148 Net Debt/Equity 1.0 0.6 0.4 Debt/EBITDA 3.3 2.1 1.6 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 3.3 14.8 11.7 EV/Sales 2.1 1.9 1.8 EV/EBITDA 14.9 11.4 10.4 EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.5 11.4 10.4 EV/EBIT 20.5 14.2 13.0 P/E (adj.) 28.0 17.6 17.3 P/BV 4.2 3.1 2.7 OpFCF yield -0.6% 4.8% 5.3% Dividend yield 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% EPS (adj.) 0.70 1.08 1.11 BVPS 4.70 6.07 7.13 DPS 0.09 0.16 0.18

Biesse


Weak Q1 18 results, but FY guidance based on strong orders

The facts: Biesse published its Q1 18 results yesterday during trading time.

Q1 17a Q1 18a % Chg

Sales 161.5 162.3 +0.5%

EBITDA 21.6 21.6 -8.5%

% margin 13.4% 12.2%

Our analysis:

Q1 18 sales flat trend especially due to though comparison base (Q1 17 sales

growth of +37%): the group recorded good sales growth in Eastern Europe

(+14.1%), Apac (+2.5%) and RoW (+141.1%), which allowed the group to offset

the decreasing performance in North America (-13.5%) and Western Europe (-

6.5%). The sales mix negatively temporary impacted Q1 profitability (Q1 18

EBITDA -8.5% Y/Y).

Very strong order portfolio: Biesse’s order intake in Q1 18 increased by 10.5%

compared to Q1 17 and the total order backlog at the end of March 2018

reached EUR 234m (+24.2% Y/Y).

Listing of HSD: the management confirmed the listing HSD on the STAR segment of

the Italian Stock Exchange. Biesse will retain the control of HSD following its

listing on the Stock Market. It was planned a maximum number of shares being

offered in the private placing equal to 50%. HSD has today also approved a

capital increase for subscription by Biesse for a maximum value of about EUR

16.2m, establishing a subscription price equal to the price of the future private

placing in connection with the listing. Biesse has decided to subscribe to this

increase by utilising its own dividend credits and distribution of reserves already

approved for the 2017 financial year but not yet paid by HSD, which are equal to

the aforementioned amount.

2018 guidance confirmed: during the post-result conference call, the management

explained that, in light of the strong order backlog and on the very good visibility

on the reset of the year, they are very confident to achieve FY 18 results in line

with the guidance announced in February: FY 18 sales around EUR 759m and

FY 18 EBITDA margin around 13.4%.

Our estimates: based on the management outlook, we maintain our 2018 estimates,

which are substantially in line with the guidance: FY 18e sales at EUR 756.2m

and FY 18e EBITDA margin of 13.4%

Conclusion & Action: we confirm our target price of EUR 49.70 per share

calculated based on our DCF model (WACC 7.2%, 1.2% perpetual growth rate) and

confirm our accumulate recommendation.

We confirm our Accumulate recommendation while we are waiting to verify the

impact of the listing of HSD expected within the coming 3 months.

Biesse

Italy | Industrial Engineering

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Biesse (Accumulate) Q1 18E estimates


Analyst(s)

Paola Saglietti

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

44.24


49.70




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BSS.MI/BSS IM



Free float 33%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.82/2.27/42.48


Sales (m) 690 756 824

EBITDA (m) 89 101 113

EBITDA margin 12.9% 13.4% 13.7%

EBIT (m) 63 73 83

EBIT margin 9.2% 9.7% 10.1%


ROCE 21.2% 24.7% 26.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (30) (74) (115)


Debt/EBITDA -0.3 -0.7 -1.0


EV/Sales 1.7 1.5 1.3

EV/EBITDA 12.8 11.4 9.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.8 11.4 9.8

EV/EBIT 18.0 15.7 13.4

P/E (adj.) 30.3 27.5 24.3

P/BV 6.2 5.3 4.4

OpFCF yield 5.5% 3.7% 4.5%


EPS (adj.) 1.40 1.61 1.82

BVPS 6.85 8.33 10.05

DPS 0.36 0.36 0.36

Shareholders

BI.FIN s.r.l. 51%;

30

35

40

45

50

55


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BIESSE Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Carraro


Q1 2018 results in line – Improved FY18 guidance

The facts: CARR released its Q1 2018 results yesterday during trading hours; the

results are not far from our estimates and the company also improved its FY18

qualitative outlook on the back of strong expected volumes.

Our analysis: the company released only three key data:

Revenues: EUR 157m (+8.3% Y/Y), better than our EUR 150m estimate

notwithstanding a strong adverse FOREX impact not disclosed by the company.

Adj. EBITDA: EUR 15.1m (-5% Y/Y), slightly worse our EUR 15.9m estimate.

Net Debt (EUR 146m as at the end of 2017) came in at EUR 162m, slightly worse

than we expected (EUR 155m)

It seems that the AG business (~45% of CARR revenues) is holding relatively well

and that the construction business is growing soundly in nearly every region.

When it comes to the FY18 guidance, CARR said that it expects margins to

improve Y/Y in the course of 2018 thanks to cost control and stronger-than-

originally-expected volumes of sales. This outlook is marginally better via-à-vis the

original one which envisaged a decline in margins due to higher raw mat costs,

supply chain difficulties and the launch of new tractor versions.

Conclusion & Action: Q1 results are decent and only a bit short of our

assumptions. CARR improved the FY18 outlook on margins thanks to higher

volumes, boosted by a growing market.

We stress that our estimates already incorporate a certain level of growth and

margin expansion and that we always considered the company’s guidance too

conservative. We are going to speak to the management today; we keep our

estimates unchanged for the time being.

Carraro


INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Carraro (Buy) Weak Q1 18 results, but FY guidance based on strong orders


Analyst(s)

Gabriele Gambarova

[email protected]

+39 02 43 444 289

Buy

3.56


5.80




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CARRA.MI/CARR IM



Free float 26%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 11.95/2.74/53.58


Sales (m) 594 579 607

EBITDA (m) 40 48 61


EBIT (m) 12 31 41

EBIT margin 2.0% 5.4% 6.8%


ROCE 4.8% 11.7% 13.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 182 140 126




EV/Sales 0.4 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 5.9 9.3 6.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.2 8.3 6.3

EV/EBIT 20.0 14.2 9.8

P/E (adj.) nm 21.8 nm

P/BV 1.3 3.8 3.0

OpFCF yield 17.7% 4.9% 7.9%


EPS (adj.) (0.21) 0.18 0.00

BVPS 1.02 1.01 1.20

DPS 0.00 0.09 0.14

Shareholders

FINAID + Carraro + Alessandri 44%; Julia Arduini 27%; Own

shares 3%;

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


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CARRARO FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Emak


Q1 18 preview: potential negative impact of weather

The facts: Q1 18 results are due out today.

Our analysis: despite the impact of the negative weather conditions in March and

the negative forex effect, we expect positive sales growth in Q1 18 thanks to the

contribution of Lavorwash.

we expect the counter-dilutive effect of Lavorwash to also support profitability.

The following table shows our sales and profitability forecast.

(EUR m) Q1 17a Q1 18e %Chg.

Sales 119.2 130.9 9.8%

EBITDA adj 17.3 18.0 4.4%

EBIT margin 14.5% 15.0%

Conclusion & Action: we expect to verify our FY 18 estimates based on the

management's outlook post Q1 results. For the moment, given the still strong stock

price undervaluation, we confirm our Accumulate recommendation.

Emak


INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Emak (Accumulate) Q1 2018 results in line – Improved FY18 guidance


Analyst(s)

Paola Saglietti

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

1.44


1.80




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg EM.MI/EM IM



Free float 26%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 6.69/2.72/-23.58


Sales (m) 422 467 477

EBITDA (m) 44 55 58

EBITDA margin 10.4% 11.7% 12.1%

EBIT (m) 30 39 44

EBIT margin 7.1% 8.4% 9.2%


ROCE 6.3% 8.2% 9.3%





EV/Sales 0.9 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 8.6 6.7 5.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.6 6.7 5.8

EV/EBIT 12.6 9.3 7.7

P/E (adj.) 14.5 10.1 8.9

P/BV 1.3 1.2 1.1

OpFCF yield -14.5% 23.7% 13.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.10 0.14 0.16

BVPS 1.13 1.23 1.36

DPS 0.04 0.04 0.04

Shareholders

YAMA Group 65%;

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20


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EMAK Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Exel Composites


Exel Composites

Q1/2017a Growth

EURm Q1a vs. Cons. OP Cons. Diff.

Sales 21.5 #DIV/0! 22.5 #DIV/0! 20.3 11%

EBIT, reported 1.6 #DIV/0! 2.0 #DIV/0! 1.7 21%

EBIT, excl. NRI 1.8 #DIV/0! 2.0 #DIV/0! 1.7 21%

Total EBIT margin 8.3 % #DIV/0! 8.9 % #DIV/0! 8.2 %#DIV/0! #DIV/0!

PTP #DIV/0! 1.9 #DIV/0! 1.6 22%

EPS 0.08 -11% 0.12 0.09 31% 0.09 33%#DIV/0!

DPS #DIV/0!

Source: OP

Q1/2018e

Q1 slightly below forecasts – earnings forecasts burdened by DSC consolidation

The facts: According to Exel Composites’ business review, its sales increased in

Q1 by 6% to EUR 21.5m (OPe: EUR 22.5m). Adjusted EBIT improved by EUR 0.1m

YoY to EUR 1.8m (OPe: EUR 2.0m) corresponding to an 8.3% EBIT margin. Order

intake decreased by 2.3% to EUR 22m.

Our analysis: Sales growth was supported by the favourable demand environment

in Europe and the acquisition of Nanjing Jianhui business in China, which was not

yet included in the figures of the comparison period. Profitability level remained

stable even though it was burdened by cost efficiency measures related to the

production network. The factory in China is being ramped up in order to also cater

customers in Australia where production has been terminated. The company

announced in April that it will acquire American Diversified Structural Composites

(DSC). The acquired company's annual sales amount to around EUR 16m and its

EBIT is nearly EUR 1m negative. The company is carrying out cost savings and

efficiency measures that are estimated to raise the company’s EBIT to break even in

2019. DSC is focusing on quickly growing segments, such as wind power and

transportation equipment industry, which complement Exel Composites’ portfolio.

Conclusion & Action: According to Exel Composites’ guidance, revenue is

expected to increase significantly and adjusted operating profit is expected to

increase in 2018 compared to 2017. We have also revised our estimates to include

the DSC acquisition, which is consolidated as part of the group as of the beginning

of May. Thus, our 2018 sales forecast is upgraded by 10% to EUR 104m. However,

our EBIT forecast is downgraded by -10% to EUR 7.1m. Our EPS projections for

2018–2019 are EUR 0.40 and EUR 0.48. As a result of our downgraded earnings

forecasts, our target price is downgraded to EUR 6.80 (previously EUR 7.40) on the

basis of 2018–19 average PE 15x. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation.

Exel Composites

Finland | Industrial Engineering

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Exel Composites (Accumulate) Q1 18 preview: potential negative impact of weather


Analyst(s)

Jari Raisanen

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4504

Accumulate

6.20


6.80

7.40




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg EXL1V.HE/EXL1V FH



Free float 100%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -0.32/-2.82/1.47


Sales (m) 86 104 114

EBITDA (m) 9 10 12

EBITDA margin 10.5% 10.0% 10.5%

EBIT (m) 6 7 9

EBIT margin 7.1% 6.9% 7.5%


ROCE 12.4% 11.5% 13.3%





EV/Sales 1.0 0.9 0.8

EV/EBITDA 9.7 8.9 7.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.7 8.9 7.7

EV/EBIT 14.5 13.0 10.9

P/E (adj.) 18.8 15.6 13.0

P/BV 2.7 2.4 2.2

OpFCF yield 2.1% 2.7% 5.2%


EPS (adj.) 0.35 0.40 0.48

BVPS 2.42 2.60 2.78

DPS 0.30 0.30 0.35

Shareholders

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (Hallintarekisteröity) 20%;

Nordea Pankki Suomi Oyj (Hallintarekisteröity) 15%;

Sijoitusrahasto Nordea Suomi 5%;

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6


vvdsvdvsdy

EXEL COMPOSITES Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Fincantieri


New EUR 320m contract with SilverSea

The facts: yesterday after trading hours, FCT announced that it had got a new

contract to supply an ultra-luxury cruise ship (“Silver Dawn”) to Silversea Cruises,

with delivery scheduled for Q4 2021. The value of the contract is EUR 320m.

Our analysis: the “Silver Dawn” will be a sister ship of Silversea’s flagship, Silver

Muse, delivered by FCT in April 2017; it will be the third ship of the Muse class. The

vessel has a 40,700 ton weight and can accommodate 596 passengers with an all-

suite configuration.

We remind you that FCT’s order backlog stood at EUR 21.8bn as at the end of

March 2018; the Silver Dawn contract weighs ~6% of the expected revenues for

2018.

Conclusion & Action: the news is positive and not discounted.

Fincantieri


INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Fincantieri (Buy) Q1 slightly below forecasts – earnings forecasts burdened by DSC consolidation


Analyst(s)

Gabriele Gambarova

[email protected]

+39 02 43 444 289

Buy

1.38


1.65




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FCT.MI/FCT IM



Free float 28%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 10.08/3.93/52.47


Sales (m) 5,020 5,456 5,881

EBITDA (m) 341 396 454


EBIT (m) 222 271 323

EBIT margin 4.4% 5.0% 5.5%


ROCE 9.3% 10.5% 12.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 314 543 505




EV/Sales 0.5 0.6 0.5

EV/EBITDA 7.4 7.6 6.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.4 7.6 6.5

EV/EBIT 11.4 11.1 9.2

P/E (adj.) 24.0 24.4 19.2

P/BV 1.7 1.8 1.7

OpFCF yield 18.7% -9.7% 2.1%


EPS (adj.) 0.05 0.06 0.07

BVPS 0.73 0.77 0.81

DPS 0.01 0.01 0.01

Shareholders

Italian Treasury 72%; Vanguard 0.57%; Dimensional 0.24%;

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60


vvdsvdvsdy

FINCANTIERI FTSE All Share (Rebased)

Source: Factset

$nomcompagnie2$


Q1 comparison

EBIT*, EURm

2018 2017 Change 2018 2017 Change 2018 2017 2018 2017 Change 2018 2017 Change

Cargotec 773 792 -2% 57 59 -3% 7.4 % 7.4 % 863 857 1% 239 235 2%

KONE 2008 1943 3% 218 246 -11% 10.9 % 12.7 % 1909 1913 0%

Konecranes 673 684 -2% 37 31 20% 5.5 % 4.5 % 683 735 -7% 239 246 -3%

Metso** 714 648 10% 85 66 28% 11.9 % 10.2 % 684 672 2% 490 451 9%

Outotec 287 263 9% 7 1 775% 2.4 % 0.3 % 334 318 5% 131 115 14%

Valmet** 732 644 14% 22 34 -35% 3.0 % 5.3 % 890 1005 -11% 346 355 -3%

Wärtsilä 1066 1005 6% 88 82 7% 8.3 % 8.2 % 1507 1413 7% 737 735 0%

Median 6% 7.4 % 7.4 % 1% 1%

Alfa Laval** (MSEK) 8851 8126 9% 1497 1279 17% 16.9 % 15.7 % 10025 8801 14%

Atlas Copco (MSEK) 21906 20578 6% 4833 4290 13% 22.1 % 20.8 % 24829 23325 6%

Sandvik (MSEK) 23685 21758 9% 4271 3495 22% 18.0 % 16.1 % 25419 24916 2%

SKF (MSEK) 20560 19601 5% 2625 2295 14% 12.8 % 11.7 %

FLSmidth** (MDKK) 4235 4371 -3% 343 372 -8% 8.1 % 8.5 % 5018 5561 -10% 2885 2868 1%

Median 6% 16.9 % 15.7 % 4%

MEDIAN - All 6% 9.6 % 9.4 % 2%

* Excl. NRI

** EBITA

Source: Interim reports Q1/2018, OP, 14 May 2018

Service orders, EURmSales, EURm Orders, total, EURmEBIT margin

Industrial engineering – muted Q1 in Finland, strong profitability for Swedish peers

In Q1, most Nordic industrial engineering companies improved their sales and

margins from last year. Somewhat surprisingly, double-digit growth was shown by

Metso (Accumulate) and Valmet (Buy). Metso improved its performance from the

weak previous quarter more than expected. Valmet's earnings were eroded by a

loss of EUR 15m in a pulp project. The company's healthy order intake is an

indicator of an active market and the outlook for services, in particular, seems bright.

Finnish companies' order intake and sales suffered from exchange rates, while the

weak SEK propped up the figures for Swedish peers. KONE (Neutral) was the only

one to reveal the impact of exchange rates on Q1 EBIT (around EUR -20m, -8%).

The weak USD dented the profitability of especially Cargotec's (Buy) Hiab which,

however, still remained healthy.

Swedish peers attained much higher margins in Q1 than Finnish companies.

Exchange rates or greater seasonality (modest Q1) for Finnish firms only explain

part of the difference. Lack of large orders still harms figures for, for example,

Outotec (Neutral), Konecranes (Buy) and Cargotec's MacGregor. Swedish

companies' product line-up is more focused on individual and specialised

equipment. Differences exist in clientele, too. Conventional heavy industry – energy,

raw materials, paper and pulp – forms the key customer sector for Finnish

companies, while Swedish companies' customer base includes automotive,

electronics and other specialised industries.

The profitability spread between Finnish and Swedish companies will not remain as

wide as in Q1 2018 because Finnish companies will markedly improve their

performance in the coming quarters. However, Swedish companies clearly perform

better, albeit owing to the weak SEK at the moment.

Finnish Industrial Engineering

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING New EUR 320m contract with SilverSea


---------- Stoxx Industrial Engineering, ___ DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector

Analyst(s)

Pekka Spolander, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4351

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18

vvdsvdvsdy

Allianz


Q1 results slightly better than expected

The facts: Allianz has just reported slightly better than expected results on an

operating profit level. Operating profit was down by 6% yoy to EUR 2,756m

(equinet: EUR 2,710m). Net profit was up by 7% yoy to EUR 1.9bn which is above

our forecast of EUR 1.7bn due to a lower than forecasted tax rate and higher non-

operating profit. C/R in P/C was with 94.8% below our forecast of 96.0%. Both nat

cat ratio (2.6%-pts.) and the run-off result (3.2%-pts.) were slightly better than

expected. Positively ALV achieved positive price development of 1.3%-pts. in Q1. In

Asset Management net flows amounted to EUR 21bn (equinet: EUR 28bn), 3rd

party AuM declined by 1% qoq to EUR 1,429bn due to FX and market performance.

Solvency II ratio declined by 4%-pts. qoq to 225% due to various reasons.

Our analysis:

Conclusion & Action: All in all a good start into the year, ALV seems to be well on

track to reach its EUR 11.1bn operating profit target.

Allianz

Germany | Insurance

INSURANCE Allianz (Neutral) Industrial engineering – muted Q1 in Finland, strong profitability for Swedish peers


Analyst(s)


[email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

Neutral

190.44


200.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ALVG.DE/ALV GY



Free float 100%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.54/1.34/10.21


Life Gross premiums (m) 67,277 67,277 70,641

Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 52,262 53,307 54,373

Total Net Revenues (m) 149,512 149,357 153,567

Life Ins.Tech.Result (m) -8,295 -6,909 -6,394

Non-Life Ins. Tech.Result 1,932 2,009 2,255

EBIT (m) 10,949 11,864 12,278

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 6,803 7,288 7,585


ANAV (m) 37,593 40,922 40,424

ROE (adj.) (%) 10.2 10.8 10.9

Combined ratio (%) 96.2 95.3 95.0

Solvency Ratio 214.7% 221.2% 227.5%

P/E (adj.) 12.6 11.5 11.0

P/BV 1.3 1.2 1.2

P/ANAV 2.3 2.0 2.0

P/EbV 1.2 1.1 1.1


EPS (adj.) 15.16 16.62 17.30

BVPS 147.44 159.70 159.70

ANAVPS 84.55 94.22 93.07

EbVPS 163.01 177.56 179.60

DPS 8.00 8.00 8.40

Shareholders

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210


vvdsvdvsdy

ALLIANZ Stoxx Insurance (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Allianz - Q1 2018

EUR m Q1 18 Q1 18e Q1 17 yoy Cons. delta

Net premiums 36,500 35,700 36,200 0.8% na na

C/R P/R 94.8% 96.0% 95.6% -0.8%-p 94.9% 0%

Operating res. 2,756 2,710 2,932 -6.0% 2,789 -1%

P/C 1,274 1,250 1,259 1.2% 1,311 -3%

L/H 1,069 1,100 1,155 -7.4% 1,110 -4%

Asset Man. 595 560 572 4.0% 597 0%

Others -182 -200 -54 na na na

Pretax Profit 2,682 2,510 2,712 -1.1% na na

Net income 1,939 1,707 1,816 6.8% 1,787 9%

Sources: Allianz, equinet Research

AXA


Time to integrate XL

The facts: Axa has finalised the IPO of its life and asset management businesses in

the US (Axa Equitable Holdings).

Our analysis: Recall that the shares were offered at USD20 each vs. an estimated

range of USD24-27 a week earlier. In the meantime, the US insurance sector

endured a severe correction due to problems for Unum. Nevertheless, we note that

the financing of the XL deal is now secured as the company was able to place,

taking into account the over-allocation, 28.2% of the shares (i.e. EUR2.66bn) and

issued a USD750m (i.e. EUR0.61bn) bond mandatorily redeemable into shares. The

debt issued is considered equity and thus has a non-significant effect on gearing.

Axa has also planned to take on EUR3bn in debt (o/w EUR2.0bn already realised),

which would increase gearing from 28% to 32%. We understand that the company

could stop at EUR2.0bn given the various elements that enable it to finalise the XL

acquisition without issuing further debt. This could have a beneficial effect on

gearing of ca. 1-1.5 points.

Conclusion & Action: The concern over the financing of XL has ben lifted despite

a placement at less advantageous conditions than expected. That said the company

is still a shareholder of AEH with a stake of more than 70% and it will continue to

receive dividends. The company’s earnings are not likely to be diluted in 2018

thanks to the integration of XL and the solvency ratio is estimated at between 190%

and 200% (vs 211% in Q1-2018).

AXA

France | Insurance

INSURANCE AXA (Accumulate) Q1 results slightly better than expected


Analyst(s)

Pierre Chedeville

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 97

Accumulate

22.57


28.50




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg AXAF.PA/CS FP



Free float 72%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -0.59/-9.20/-6.89


Life Gross premiums (m) 60,283 59,384 60,514

Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 39,953 35,494 36,194

Total Net Revenues (m) 100,602 99,576 101,651

Life Ins.Tech.Result (m) 1,498 1,539 1,594

Non-Life Ins. Tech.Result 1,230 1,264 1,528

EBIT (m) 7,940 8,108 8,694

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 5,933 6,019 6,420


ANAV (m) 0 0 0

ROE (adj.) (%) 12.5 12.9 13.1

Combined ratio (%) 96.5 96.4 95.7

Solvency Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

P/E (adj.) 10.0 9.6 8.2

P/BV 0.8 0.8 0.7

P/ANAV 1.1 1.1 0.9

P/EbV 1.1 1.1 1.0


EPS (adj.) 2.41 2.59 2.75

BVPS 31.31 32.45 33.93

ANAVPS 22.17 23.36 24.84

EbVPS 21.67 21.96 22.51

DPS 1.16 1.25 1.33

Shareholders

Mutuelles Axa 15%; Employees 8%; BNP Paribas 5%;

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28


vvdsvdvsdy

AXA CAC 40 (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Astaldi


EUR 193m new orders in LatAm

The facts: the company said yesterday that it had been awarded two new

construction contracts totalling EUR 193m referring to Astaldi’s stake, for projects in

Chile and Mexico.

Our analysis: In Mexico the company has been awarded a contract worth USD

350m (EUR 120m Astaldi’s stake) at Mexico City’s new International Airport

In Chile the company has been awarded a construction contract worth EUR 73m

(CLP 53.4bn first phase works), with a possible increase up to a maximum

additional amount of EUR 85 million. Commissioned by CODELCO and to be

performed in various phases by the end of 2022, the works are part of the project for

the underground development of the El Teniente copper mine, stretching between

elevations of 1,500 and 1,900 metres in the Andes, 80 kilometres south of Santiago

de Chile.

Conclusion & Action: the company said yesterday evening that it would publish its

first quarter results today. The main issue is the upcoming capital increase, the

details of which have not been disclosed yet.

Astaldi

Italy | Materials, Construction & Infrastructure

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Astaldi (Reduce) Time to integrate XL


Analyst(s)

Francesco Sala

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Reduce

2.81




Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg AST.MI/AST IM



Free float 48%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 27.15/12.40/-50.27


Sales (m) 3,061 3,271 3,351

EBITDA (m) 366 360 369

EBITDA margin 12.0% 11.0% 11.0%

EBIT (m) 81 294 302

EBIT margin 2.7% 9.0% 9.0%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (96) 92 102

ROCE -7.8% -70.4% -73.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,160 1,059 921




EV/Sales 0.5 0.4 0.4

EV/EBITDA 3.8 3.8 3.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.8 3.8 3.3

EV/EBIT 17.0 4.6 4.0

P/E (adj.) nm 3.1 2.8

P/BV 0.4 0.4 0.4

OpFCF yield -85.6% 26.6% 39.6%


EPS (adj.) (0.95) 0.90 0.99

BVPS 5.68 6.33 7.26

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shareholders

Astaldi family 52%;

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5


vvdsvdvsdy

ASTALDI Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Eiffage


A record order book, boosted by the Grand Paris project

The facts: Eiffage has reported revenues of EUR3.379bn, up +4.3% l-f-l.

Our analysis: The publication unsurprisingly shows robust activity in Concessions

(+9.2%), although partly boosted by the calendar effect, and a more modest

increase in Contracting (+3.1%), due to poor weather conditions at end-

February/early March. However, the most notable factor is the level of the

Contracting order book, boosted by the Grand Paris Express metro project (GPE)

which hit a record best with EUR14.1bn at end-March (EUR12bn at end-December

2017). The integration of the orders for lot 1 for line 16 of the Grand Paris Express

linking Saint-Denis to Noisy (EUR1.7bn) has enabled Eiffage to leap forward (the

Contracting order book before the crisis stood at around EUR10bn). Eiffage, which

beat Vinci and Bouygues, is steering the project together with NGE-TSO and the

contracting subsidiaries of the Fayat group (Raze-Bec and Séfi-Intrafor).

Conclusion & Action: IV of EUR97.4 under revision. Eiffage, at a later date than

Vinci, entered a virtuous spiral three years ago, welcomed by the market, erasing

the memory of the difficult years of 2010-2013.

Eiffage

France | Materials, Construction & Infrastructure

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Eiffage (Accumulate) EUR 193m new orders in LatAm


Analyst(s)

Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 65

Accumulate

100.45


97.39




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FOUG.PA/FGR FP



Free float 68%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 6.18/11.36/28.29


Sales (m) 14,307 15,289 15,960

EBITDA (m) 2,495 2,674 2,824

EBITDA margin 17.4% 17.5% 17.7%

EBIT (m) 1,597 1,729 1,849

EBIT margin 11.2% 11.3% 11.6%


ROCE 6.9% 7.4% 7.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 11,641 10,600 10,170




EV/Sales 1.6 1.6 1.6

EV/EBITDA 9.1 9.0 8.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.1 9.0 8.9

EV/EBIT 14.2 13.9 13.6

P/E (adj.) 14.8 16.1 16.3

P/BV 1.8 2.1 2.1

OpFCF yield 6.4% 9.6% 8.9%


EPS (adj.) 4.47 5.66 6.18

BVPS 37.13 43.72 48.34

DPS 1.50 2.00 2.10

Shareholders

Employees 21%; Blackrock 10%; Treasury Stock 1.60%;

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


vvdsvdvsdy

EIFFAGE Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)

Source: Factset

SIAS


Sound growth expected in Q1

The facts: the company is publishing its Q1 18 revenues today.

Our analysis: we expect sizeably higher revenues on the back of higher traffic and

tariffs:

Q1 17 Q1 18e Y/Y

Revenues 228.4 242.7 6.2%

o/w tolls 221.4 235.2 6.3%

Conclusion & Action: we expect a sizeably higher revenues in Q1 18; we also

expect this trend to continue in the following quarters.

SIAS

Italy | Materials, Construction & Infrastructure

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE SIAS (Buy) A record order book, boosted by the Grand Paris project


Analyst(s)

Francesco Sala

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Buy

17.28


17.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SIS.MI/SIS IM



Free float 30%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 8.82/25.67/79.07


Sales (m) 1,090 1,129 1,255

EBITDA (m) 661 697 772

EBITDA margin 60.7% 61.7% 61.5%

EBIT (m) 355 380 419

EBIT margin 32.6% 33.6% 33.4%


ROCE 6.1% 6.7% 6.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,648 1,486 1,551




EV/Sales 2.3 3.6 3.7

EV/EBITDA 3.8 5.8 6.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.8 5.8 6.0

EV/EBIT 7.1 10.7 11.0

P/E (adj.) 11.4 19.6 19.2

P/BV 1.0 1.7 1.9

OpFCF yield 0.3% 6.8% 0.8%


EPS (adj.) 0.71 0.79 0.90

BVPS 8.43 8.88 9.33

DPS 0.34 0.37 0.37

Shareholders

Gavio Group 70%;

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


vvdsvdvsdy

SIAS Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Mediaset


Q1 2018 Pre: starting the year in a weak ad market

The facts: Preview of Q1 2018 results (publication today).

Our analysis: 2018 started with a weak tone in terms of advertising collection both

in Spain and in Italy. Mediaset Espana reported a 4.8% Y/Y decline in TV revenues,

in line with its reference market, also due to the “Easter effect” (indeed April was up

by 10% Y/Y) which drove adj EBITDA down by 17% Y/Y. This performance was in

any case largely expected, and EBIT and net income slightly surpassed our

expectations. In Italy, the TV advertising market was up by 0.6% Y/Y in the first two

months, but Mediaset was down by 0.9%. The company has been noticing some

improvements from the second part of March. We expect a slightly higher EBIT loss

for the TV unit, also depending on the rate of decline of Pay-TV revenues, given the

Y/Y revenue decline and since most of the cost reduction will materialize in H2 with

the expiration of soccer rights.

Mediaset Q1 2018 Preview (EUR m)

Q1 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018e Y/Y Q/Q

Total Group Revenues 889 1,117 853 -4.1% -23.6% Italian Revenues 649 821 623 -4.0% -24.1% SBU ITA TV 630 798 601 -4.6% -24.7% ow Advertising 512 673 505 -1.5% -25.0% ow Pay TV 151 156 130 -14.1% -16.5% EIT revenues 64.6 66.9 67.5 4.4% 0.9% MSE net revenues (a) 240 295 230 -4.5% -22.2% Group EBIT (rep) 76.6 126 59.2 -22.7% -52.9% Italian EBIT -0.3 85.5 -4.4 nm -105.2% SBU ITA TV EBIT -24.0 66.4 -29.6 23% nm EIT EBIT 23.7 19.1 25.2 6.4% 31.9% MSE EBIT (a) 76.8 59.9 63.6 -17.1% 6.1% Pre-tax profit 72.7 112 51.2 -29.6% -54.4%

Source: Company data, BANCA AKROS estimates (a) Spain actual results

Outlook. Q2 should be a better quarter on an underlying basis both in Italy and

Spain. The broadcasting of the 2018 FIFA World Cup will boost advertising

collection in June and July. In H2, the agreement with Sky will contribute above

EUR 30m to the revenue and EBIT line. The company guides for a cost base of

EUR 2,245/2,275m for the domestic TV unit. In Spain, the cost guidance was set at

EUR 770m. EIT has recently reiterated its EBITDA guidance (>EUR 136m).

Conclusion & Action: We anticipate a modest quarter given the weak advertising

market but we have more positive expectations for the next few months, also

supported by company-specific drivers.

Mediaset

Italy | Media

MEDIA Mediaset (Accumulate) Sound growth expected in Q1


Analyst(s)

Andrea Devita, CFA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Accumulate

3.32


3.55




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MS.MI/MS IM



Free float 32%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 2.25/5.70/-9.34


Sales (m) 3,631 3,494 3,329

EBITDA (m) 458 578 873

EBITDA margin 12.6% 16.5% 26.2%

EBIT (m) 316 395 716

EBIT margin 8.7% 11.3% 21.5%


ROCE 5.8% 6.9% 12.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,392 1,213 905




EV/Sales 1.9 1.9 1.9

EV/EBITDA 14.8 11.6 7.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14.8 11.6 7.3

EV/EBIT 21.4 17.0 8.9

P/E (adj.) 33.2 34.3 13.5

P/BV 2.0 1.9 1.7

OpFCF yield -30.2% -15.9% -5.8%


EPS (adj.) 0.10 0.10 0.25

BVPS 1.62 1.71 1.95

DPS 0.00 0.03 0.05

Shareholders

Silvio Berlusconi 40%; Vivendi 29%; Treasury Shares 4%;

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20

3.30

3.40

3.50

3.60

3.70

3.80


vvdsvdvsdy

MEDIASET Stoxx Media (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Geox


Q1 18 sales results expected weak

The facts: Geox is going to publish its Q1 18 sales results today after the market

closure (conf. call @ 5:30 pm CET +39 02 805 88 11).

Our analysis: We expect quite a weak quarter, despite the promising 3.5% S/S

order backlog (which covers only a small portion of Q1 wholesale, though): Q1 18

was hit by unfavourable weather conditions (some delays in shipping and overall

weak retail could have occurred). We expect wholesale channel sales down 6.5% to

EUR148m. We estimate DOS and franchisers revenues down as well. The company

already warned in February (during FY 17 results presentation)

that in the first 7 weeks of the year DOS like-for-like growth was slightly negative,

due to lower promotional sales vs. last year (lower inventories availability); DOS full

price sales were flat.

As such, after bad March due to weather conditions, DOS revenues are down 5% in

our estimates to EUR 81.6m. Franchisers should have been more penalised than

DOS in terms of space, considering closures and DOS take-over of franchisees. We

estimate franchisers down 10% to EUR 48.2m. We estimate EUR 278m revenues in

Q1 18 (-6.7% Y/Y at reported forex).

Conclusion & Action: In another transitional year Q1 18 shouldn’t be of great

importance, we think. Focus will be on future plans of recovery (we remind you that

the new CEO comes from Gucci). We keep our neutral on the stock.

Geox

Italy | Personal Goods

PERSONAL GOODS Geox (Neutral) Q1 2018 Pre: starting the year in a weak ad market


Analyst(s)

Giada Cabrino, CIIA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Neutral

2.84


3.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg GEO.MI/GEO IM



Free float 29%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.18/4.41/0.78


Sales (m) 901 885 905

EBITDA (m) 48 74 84


EBIT (m) 13 40 49

EBIT margin 1.4% 4.5% 5.4%


ROCE 2.4% 8.1% 9.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 36 5 (20)

Net Debt/Equity 0.1 0.0 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.1 -0.2


EV/Sales 0.7 0.9 0.8

EV/EBITDA 13.7 10.8 9.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.7 10.8 9.0

EV/EBIT 50.6 19.8 15.5

P/E (adj.) nm 48.7 26.8

P/BV 1.6 2.1 1.9

OpFCF yield -9.4% 8.4% 2.8%


EPS (adj.) 0.01 0.06 0.11

BVPS 1.39 1.35 1.47

DPS 0.02 0.06 0.07

Shareholders

Mario Moretti Polegato 71%;

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0


vvdsvdvsdy

GEOX Stoxx Personal Goods (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Marimekko


Forecast revisions

EURm New Old Diff. New Old Diff.

Sales

Finland 57.1 58.5 -2% 57.7 59.1 -2%

Scandinavia 8.6 9.1 -6% 8.6 9.2 -6%

EMEA 10.7 8.4 27% 11.1 8.6 29%

North America 7.9 7.9 0% 8.0 8.0 1%

Asia- Pacific 21.1 20.4 4% 21.9 21.2 4%

Total sales 105.4 104.3 1% 107.4 106.0 1%

Sales growth 3.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6%

EBIT, comparable 8.7 9.2 -5% 9.2 9.5 -2%

Margin, comparable 8.3% 8.8% 0.0% 8.6% 8.9% 0.0%

EBIT, reported 14.7 9.2 61% 9.2 9.5 -2%

Margin, reported 14.0 % 8.8 % 8.6 % 8.9 %

PTP 14.1 9.0 56% 8.9 9.3 -5%

Taxes 2.8 1.8 56% 1.8 1.9 -5%

EPS 1.39 0.89 56% 0.88 0.92 -5%

Source: OP

20192018

Target price upgraded to EUR 14.50

The facts: Marimekko's Q1 results were in line with market forecasts. Sales growth

(+7% YoY) was surprisingly solid as the consensus estimate was +3%. Sales

growth originated almost entirely outside Finland, particularly from wholesale and

royalties in the Asia-Pacific region. Sales in Finland grew less than 1%. Comparable

EBIT grew slightly YoY underpinned by sales growth (EUR 1.2m vs. Q1 2017:

EUR 1.1m). The relative gross margin dropped to 62.8% (65.2%) as the share of

wholesale increased YoY.

Our analysis: Marimekko maintained its full-year guidance: net sales and

comparable operating profit for 2018 are forecast to be at the same level as or

higher than in the previous year. Q1 performance was in line with the guidance. It

should be noted that Q1 is typically the least significant quarter of the year due to

seasonality. In terms of Marimekko’s outlook, the operating environment is

dichotomous. The positive economic performance and especially solid consumer

confidence in Finland support the outlook for Marimekko’s product categories. Yet,

competition is fierce and C2C trade is on the rise, which is curbing growth in the

sector. Moreover, Marimekko’s sales and earnings will face headwinds from

currencies in the short term with the euro gaining strength.

We have raised our dividend projection for next spring to EUR 0.70 per share (from

EUR 0.50) as the sale of the head office reinforces the already strong balance sheet

and reported EBIT for 2018. Marimekko will book a non-recurring taxable capital

gain of roughly EUR 6m on the sale of the head office to a fund managed by

OP Financial Group and remain a lessee in the said premises. The company’s

dividend policy is to pay out at least 50% of EPS as dividends annually.

Conclusion & Action: We reiterate our Neutral recommendation and revise our

DCF-based target price up to EUR 14.50 (prev. EUR 12.70).

Marimekko

Finland | Personal Goods

PERSONAL GOODS Marimekko (Neutral) Q1 18 sales results expected weak


Analyst(s)

Niclas Catani

[email protected]

+358 10 252 8780

Neutral

14.15


14.50

12.70




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MMO1V.HE/MMO1V FH



Free float 100%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.05/17.92/32.86


Sales (m) 102 105 107

EBITDA (m) 12 18 12

EBITDA margin 11.4% 16.6% 11.1%

EBIT (m) 8 15 9

EBIT margin 8.2% 14.0% 8.6%


ROCE 22.3% 45.5% 27.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (3) (14) (15)


Debt/EBITDA -0.2 -0.8 -1.2


EV/Sales 0.8 1.0 0.9

EV/EBITDA 6.7 5.7 8.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.7 5.7 8.3

EV/EBIT 9.4 6.8 10.8

P/E (adj.) 14.4 10.2 16.1

P/BV 2.7 3.0 2.9

OpFCF yield 12.0% 9.8% 6.0%


EPS (adj.) 0.70 1.39 0.88

BVPS 3.79 4.68 4.86

DPS 0.50 0.70 0.75

Shareholders

Muotitila Oy 16%; Semerca Investment Ltd 11%; Keskinäinen

työeläkevakuutusyhtiö Varma 5%;

9

10

11

12

13

14

15


vvdsvdvsdy

MARIMEKKO OMXH (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Technogym


Q118 sales should confirm solid organic growth

The facts: Technogym should report first quarter sales only today.

Our analysis: Sales should confirm the solid organic growth expected for the year

partly dented by some forex impact mainly in the North American market. Sales

might be different by few millions on a restated basis on both quarters due to the

first time application of the IFRS 15 principle.

Conclusion & Action: Rating and PT confirmed

SALES by Area Q117 Q118e %Ch.

Europe (not Italy) 66.6 71.8 7.8%

MEIA 9.6 9.6 0.0%

APAC 19.4 20.9 7.8%

Italy 12.5 13.6 9.0%

North America 12.4 12.3 -1.5%

LATAM 3.5 3.52 0.0%

TOTAL 124.1 131.8 6.2%

Volumes/Price/Mix 11.2 9.0%

Forex -3.5 -2.8%

Source: Company Data, Banca Akros forecasts

SALES BY Channel Q117 Q118e %Ch.

Field Sales 86.7 86.7 7.4%

Wholesale 25.9 25.9 6.7%

Inside Sales 10.2 10.2 1.6%

Retail 1.3 1.3 -6.7%

TOTAL 124.1 124.1 6.6%

Source: Company Data, Banca Akros forecasts

Technogym

Italy | Personal Goods

PERSONAL GOODS Technogym (Neutral) Target price upgraded to EUR 14.50


Analyst(s)

Andrea Bonfà

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4269

Neutral

10.74


9.50




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TGYM.MI/TGYM IM



Free float 54%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 9.59/22.32/57.02


Sales (m) 598 643 687

EBITDA (m) 120 136 152

EBITDA margin 20.1% 21.1% 22.1%

EBIT (m) 91 109 125

EBIT margin 15.3% 16.9% 18.2%


ROCE 31.6% 34.7% 38.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 41 1 (59)

Net Debt/Equity 0.3 0.0 -0.2


Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 28.4 high high

EV/Sales 2.8 3.4 3.1

EV/EBITDA 13.8 15.9 13.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.8 15.9 13.8

EV/EBIT 18.2 19.9 16.8

P/E (adj.) 26.4 28.7 24.6

P/BV 12.0 11.2 8.3

OpFCF yield 3.1% 2.7% 3.8%


EPS (adj.) 0.31 0.37 0.44

BVPS 0.68 0.96 1.29

DPS 0.07 0.09 0.11

Shareholders

FIF Holding 39%; Pictet Funds 4%; Momentum 3%;

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0


vvdsvdvsdy

TECHNOGYM Stoxx Personal Goods (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Exprivia


Q1 2018 Post: negative EBITDA contribution from Italtel

The facts: Q1 2018 results.

Our analysis: Q1 2018 was characterized by the full entry of Italtel into Exprivia’s

consolidation perimeter (line by line in the P&L), as the deal was finalized in the last

days of 2017 and was already included in the December 31 balance sheet (total

debt EUR 223m including EUR 164m NFP of Italtel and EUR 25m cash outlay for

the acquisition). We didn’t have comparable figures for Italtel on a quarterly basis in

2017. The actual results appear rather weak and are below our expectations. At the

underlying level of Exprivia stand-alone, growth decelerated in Q1 but remained in

any case slightly positive, as banking and finance posted +11% Y/Y growth,

Aerospace +7.5% and healthcare finally delivered a positive growth (+3.5%).

EBITDA was slightly lower Y/Y whereas we were expecting an improvement and net

debt increased by EUR 7.5m on a sequential basis.

The first time quarterly release of Italtel was the main focus, and it appears that the

seasonality of its business is very strong, with Q1 characterized by negative

EBITDA. Accordingly, the large gap vs. our guesstimates is not a major concern at

this point, given that in spite of a negative EUR 8m in Q1 Italtel delivered EUR 15m

reported and EUR 20m adjusted EBITDA in the full year 2017. The company also

said these results are in line with the budget. The sequential increase in net debt

could also be due to seasonality. The 15% Y/Y revenue decline was mainly due to

the drop in business with TIM; we have to check whether the increase in the

activities with Open Fiber will be enough to cover the gap.

Exprivia: Q1 2018 results (EUR m)

Q1

2017a Q1 2018e

Q1 2018a Y/Y

Q1 2017a

Q1 2018 e

Q1 2018 a

Q1 2018a

Exprivia ITALTEL Group

Revenues 35.9 37.3 na nm na 100 na 107.1

Turnover 36.6 38.1 37.1 1.3% 90.5 100 76.9 113.1

EBITDA adj 3.03 3.18 2.9 -4.4% -7.9 4.0 -7.2 -4.2

margin 8.3% 8.4% 7.8% -0.5% -8.7% 4.0% -9.4% -3.8%

EBITDA 3.03 3.18 2.9 -4.4% -7.9 5.0 -7.2 -4.2

EBIT 1.87 1.83 1.8 -3.8% -10.2 0.5 -10.8 -9.0

Margin 5.1% 4.8% 4.9% -0.3% -

11.3% 0.5% -14.0% -8.0%

EBT 1.55 nm 1.10 -45.1% -12.30 na -14.30 -13.23

Net Income 0.89 nm nm nm na na na -0.03

NFP 42.0 57.0 64.5 53.6% na 162.0 174.3 238.8

Source: Company data, BANCA AKROS estimates

Outlook. The results were slightly below our expectations at Exprivia and argly

missed at Italtel. We believe in any case that given last year’s trend the latter could

still deliver on an EBITDA better than FY 2017 even on a lower revenue base.

Conclusion & Action: We keep a positive view as we are at the very beginning off

the journey for the new group.

Exprivia

Italy | Software & Computer Services

SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES Exprivia (Accumulate) Q118 sales should confirm solid organic growth


Analyst(s)

Andrea Devita, CFA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Accumulate

1.51


1.80




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg XPR.MI/XPR IM



Free float 47%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 9.13/4.01/21.65


Sales (m) 161 165 171

EBITDA (m) 12 18 19


EBIT (m) 7 13 14

EBIT margin 4.0% 7.7% 8.0%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (0) 6 7

ROCE 3.6% 6.7% 11.5%





EV/Sales 0.8 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 10.6 7.0 6.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.6 7.0 6.2

EV/EBIT 19.8 10.2 8.7

P/E (adj.) nm 13.1 11.3

P/BV 1.0 1.0 0.9

OpFCF yield 4.8% -0.4% 11.0%

Dividend yield 0.0% nm 1.9%

EPS (adj.) (0.00) 0.12 0.13

BVPS 1.46 1.57 1.68

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.03

Shareholders

Abaco Spa 47%; Own Shares 7%;

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2


vvdsvdvsdy

EXPRIVIA FTSE Italy SmallCaps (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Reply


Q1 2018 Pre: growth as usual expected


Our analysis: we expect another quarter of double-digit growth, with stable Y/Y

EBITDA margin. The group has launched four new start-ups in Q1 alone in Italy,

which should drive top-line to +10% also in the next few quarters. We expect strong

growth also in Germany, based on the exit speed of Q4 and the trend throughout

last year. In the UK, the growth rate is more erratic and we observed a significant

slow-down in the final part of 2017. We expect net cash to have increased by a

dozen million EUROS in the last three months. The acquisition of the US player

Valorem does not affect Q1 as it was announced on April 11.

Reply Q1 2018 preview (EUR m)

Q1 17a Q4 2017a Q1 18e Y/Y Q/Q

Revenues 208 233 232 11.3% -0.5%

Italy 150 166 165 9.9% -0.6%

Germany* 36.6 45.7 44.0 20.2% -3.7%

UK 24.9 29.0 26.5 6.4% -8.6%

Other/adj -3.3 -7.6 -3.5 6.2% -53.9%

EBITDA 28.1 33.4 31.3 11.6% -6.4%

mg 13.5% 14.3% 13.5% 0.0% -0.9%

EBIT 25.2 32.2 27.8 10.3% -13.6%

EBT 25.3 31.6 27.5 8.5% -13.0%

Net debt/(cash) -80.6 -57.0 -70.0 -13.2% 22.8%


Outlook. Our estimates for FY 2018 point to around 9% revenue growth and 0.6pp

margin increase Y/Y. We are not including yet the impact of Valorem acquisition in

the US, for which we have very few information (expected size of USD 50m in

revenues, and acquisition price in a similar range).

Conclusion & Action: we expect a solid release, in line with the past few quarters.

Reply

Italy | Software & Computer Services

SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES Reply (Neutral) Q1 2018 Post: negative EBITDA contribution from Italtel


Analyst(s)

Andrea Devita, CFA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Neutral

54.50


50.30




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg REY.MI/REY IM



Free float 45%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 13.07/11.27/34.57


Sales (m) 884 963 1,010

EBITDA (m) 123 140 146

EBITDA margin 13.9% 14.5% 14.5%

EBIT (m) 111 126 132

EBIT margin 12.5% 13.1% 13.1%


ROCE 29.9% 31.6% 30.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (57) (112) (167)


Debt/EBITDA -0.5 -0.8 -1.1


EV/Sales 1.9 2.0 1.8

EV/EBITDA 13.4 13.7 12.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.4 13.7 12.7

EV/EBIT 14.9 15.1 14.0

P/E (adj.) 22.2 23.5 22.1

P/BV 4.3 4.3 3.7

OpFCF yield 2.9% 3.0% 3.1%


EPS (adj.) 2.08 2.32 2.47

BVPS 10.73 12.78 14.90

DPS 0.35 0.35 0.35

Shareholders

Rizzante Mario 45%; Shareholder value mgmt AG 4%;

Lodigiani Riccardo 1.90%; JP Morgan 2.00%; Toqueville

1.20%;

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56


vvdsvdvsdy

REPLY FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)

Source: Factset

ENAV


Steady revenues but better margins

The facts: ENAV published its first quarter results yesterday before market closing.

The company held a conference call in the evening.

Our analysis: the company managed to increase its margins notwithstanding

slightly lower revenues. Particularly external costs declined by 4.9% y/y to EUR

34.4m.

Q1 17 Q1 18 Y/Y% Q1 18e

Total revenues 176.4 175.5 -0.5% 176.2

o/w balance 6.3 -4.0

-3.2

EBITDA 28.7 30.0 4.3% 28.8

margin 16.3% 17.1%

16.3%

EBIT -2.9 -1.7 nm -3.4

margin -1.7% -1.0%

-1.9%

PBT -3.1 -3.0 nm -4.6

Net Profit -4.2 -4.4 nm -5.1

Guidance for 2018 confirmed - For 2018 the company confirmed the guidance

communicated to the market in March with net revenue growth expected to be flat to

low-single digit with an EBITDA margin of around 32%, in-line with 2017. ENAV

also confirmed its guidance on 2019 dividend which is expected to increase by 4%

over the dividend of 2018 (2018 dividend is EUR 0.1864/sh).

Conclusion & Action: the results were sound and the increase in margins was

sizeable; the traffic has been very good since the beginning of the year with service

units up 7.8% y/y. We increased our estimates to take into account the strong traffic

performance. We move our target price from EUR 4.8/sh to EUR 5.0/sh and confirm

our Accumulate recommendation on the stock.

ENAV

Italy | Support Services

SUPPORT SERVICES ENAV (Accumulate) Q1 2018 Pre: growth as usual expected


Analyst(s)

Francesco Sala

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Accumulate

4.52


5.00

4.80




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ENAV.MI/ENAV IM



Free float 47%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -0.09/8.60/16.49


Sales (m) 882 900 901

EBITDA (m) 284 298 300

EBITDA margin 32.2% 33.1% 33.3%

EBIT (m) 147 165 167

EBIT margin 16.6% 18.4% 18.5%


ROCE 8.4% 9.5% 9.5%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 117 104 107




EV/Sales 2.9 2.8 2.8

EV/EBITDA 9.0 8.6 8.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.0 8.6 8.5

EV/EBIT 17.5 15.4 15.3

P/E (adj.) 24.1 21.3 21.1

P/BV 2.2 2.1 2.1

OpFCF yield 4.0% 4.8% 4.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.19 0.21 0.21

BVPS 2.08 2.10 2.12

DPS 0.19 0.19 0.20

Shareholders

Mef 53%;

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8


vvdsvdvsdy

ENAV FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Openjobmetis


Q1 PW: expected good sales growth thanks to the positive trend of the reference market

The facts: Q1 18 results are due out today..

Our analysis: we expect further good sales growth sustained by the continuous

good trend of the reference market.

Profitability should continue to benefit from the operating leverage.

The following table shows our sales and profitability forecast.

(EUR m) Q1 17a Q1 18e %Chg.

Sales 130.1 139.2 7.0%

EBITDA 4.1 4.6 12.0%

EBIT margin 3.2% 3.3%

Conclusion & Action: we confirm our Accumulate recommendation, while we

expect to verify our estimates with the details from the today conference call at 3:00

pm CET).

Openjobmetis

Italy | Support Services

SUPPORT SERVICES Openjobmetis (Accumulate) Steady revenues but better margins


Analyst(s)

Paola Saglietti

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

11.50


15.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg OJM.MI/OJM IM



Free float 50%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 1.59/-9.87/11.65


Sales (m) 584 625 651

EBITDA (m) 22 24 26


EBIT (m) 19 21 23

EBIT margin 3.3% 3.4% 3.5%


ROCE 6.8% 7.0% 7.4%





EV/Sales 0.4 0.3 0.3

EV/EBITDA 9.7 7.8 6.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.7 7.8 6.8

EV/EBIT 11.2 8.9 7.6

P/E (adj.) 14.4 11.5 10.6

P/BV 2.0 1.5 1.3

OpFCF yield 3.3% 6.1% 10.1%


EPS (adj.) 0.89 1.00 1.09

BVPS 6.44 7.44 8.53

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shareholders

Rasizza Rosario 8%; Omniafin 29%; Questio Capital SGR

14%;

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5


vvdsvdvsdy

OPENJOBMETIS FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Acotel


Q1 2018 Pre: weak trends to persist


Our analysis: We expect another quarter of revenue decline and negative EBITDA,

as the fall in the traditional activities (Interactive) is not compensated by the

expected growth in the NET and Bucksense divisions. We expect that all the SBUs

remain loss-making in the quarter at the operating level. The positive net income in

Q1 2017 reflected the settlement with Intesa on the Noverca litigation, which

resulted into EUR 5.1m debt waiver. According to the filing to Consob, the net cash

position was EUR 3.0m at the end of March 2018, implying EUR 1.8m cash burn in

Q1.

Acotel Q1 2018 Preview (EUR m)

Q1

2018e Q1

2017a Y/Y

Q4 2017a

Q/Q

Interactive 1.10 2.77 -60.3% 1.10 -0.1%

NET 0.85 0.52 64.4% 0.77 11.1%

Bucksense/adj 1.80 1.61 12% 1.44 25%

Net sales 3.75 4.90 -23.4% 3.30 13.6%

Turnover 4.05 5.18 -21.8% 3.87 4.8%

EBITDA -1.50 -2.12 -29.1% -2.06 -27.1% Margin -37.0% -40.9% +3.9pp -53.2% +16.2pp

EBIT -1.90 -2.55 -25.5% -2.42 -21.6% Net income (Loss) -1.80 2.85 nm -5.33 -66.2% Net debt (Cash) -3.00 -11.40 -73.7% -4.80 -37.5%


Outlook. The company had already warned about the going concern assumptions

given the ongoing losses and cash burn in spite of a still positive cash position. ACO

said in the press release that the main shareholders (controlling a 57% stake) are

ready to inject up to EUR 5m as their pro-quota share of a potential capital increase.

Conclusion & Action: We keep a negative view. The company burns cash and

needs new capital.

Acotel

Italy | Telecommunications

TELECOMMUNICATIONS Acotel (Reduce) Q1 PW: expected good sales growth thanks to the positive trend of the reference market


Analyst(s)

Andrea Devita, CFA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Reduce

4.68


2.90




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ACO.MI/ACO IM



Free float 35%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 11.16/33.33/-22.00


Sales (m) 19 20 22

EBITDA (m) (7) (4) (2)

EBITDA margin nm nm nm

EBIT (m) (9) (7) (3)

EBIT margin nm nm nm

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (4) (3) (1)

ROCE -434.5% -276.8% -271.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (5) (0) 1

Net Debt/Equity -1.7 0.1 -0.2


Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (189.6) 5.3 2.9

EV/Sales 0.9 1.1 1.1

EV/EBITDA nm nm nm

EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm nm nm

EV/EBIT nm nm nm

P/E (adj.) nm nm nm

P/BV 6.5 nm nm

OpFCF yield -20.3% -24.5% -4.3%


EPS (adj.) (1.08) (0.75) (0.25)

BVPS 0.67 (0.40) (0.82)

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shareholders

Clama 41%; Claudio Carnevale 17%; Ellepif Ltd 0.00%;

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


vvdsvdvsdy

ACOTEL FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Vodafone


YTM 2018 results: Good results and supportive guidance

The facts: Publication of Year to March 2018 results.

Our analysis: Solid results in terms of service revenues, EBITDA and Free Cash

Flow. Service revenues improved on a sequential basis, with the main countries

(excluding Spain) delivering in line or above consensus expectations (India also

improving albeit still above 20% Y/Y decline).

Vodafone service revenue trend

Q1 17/18 Q2 17/18 Q3 17/18 Q4 17/18css Q4 17/18a

Germany 0.6% 1.6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.8%

Italy 3.2% 1.5% -0.4% -0.5% 0.7%

Spain 1.6% 3.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0%

UK -2.7% -3.0% -4.8% -3.9% -3.4%

Vodacom 5.6% 3.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.8%

Turkey 13.9% 14.7% 13.2% 12.9% 14.3%

Group 2.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4%

India -13.9% -17.8% -23.1% -23.0% -21.2%

Source: Company data, ESN estimates

EBITDA was in line with our expectations but better than consensus (EUR

14.63bn) and was up by 11.8% on organic basis beating the revised target of

+10%. FCF easily surpassed the target of EUR 5bn and consensus (EUR

5.2bn), with capex at EUR 7.32bn (+EUR 354m Y/Y). Net debt in line with

expectations at EUR 31.5bn. DPS increased to EUR 15.07c (final 10.23c) vs.

our exp and consensus at 15.0c.

Vodafone FY 2017/18 results (EUR m)

YTM 2017 YTM 2018e YTM 2018a Y/Y (org)

Revenues 47,631 46,117 46,571 -2.2% EBITDA reported 14,149 14,786 14,737 +4.2% (+11.8%)

Margin 29.7% 32.1% 31.6% +1.9pp adj operating profit 4,134 5,388 5,216 +26.2% (+49.0%)

FCF* 4,056 5,215 5,417 +33.6%

Source: Company data, ESN estimates (*) excluding spectrum

Outlook YTM 2019. Organic adjusted EBITDA: underlying growth in the

range of +1/5%, implying EUR 14.15/14.65bn (IAS18). This range excludes

the impact of UK handset financing in both years, the significant benefit in

the prior year from regulatory settlements in the UK and a legal settlement

in Germany. FCF pre-spectrum: > EUR 5.2bn including a drag of c.EUR

0.2bn from the Gigabit Investment Plan and a combined impact of EUR

0.2bn from India recharges and the sale of Qatar. Capex/sales: ‘mid-

(excluding the Gigabit Investment Plan in Germany).

Conclusion & Action: solid results and supportive guidance of 1/5% increase in

EBITDA and above EUR 5,2bn FCF.

Vodafone

United Kingdom | Telecommunications

TELECOMMUNICATIONS Vodafone (Accumulate) Q1 2018 Pre: weak trends to persist


Analyst(s)

Andrea Devita, CFA

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Accumulate

207.20


240.00




Target price: GBp

Share price: GBp

Reuters/Bloomberg VOD.L/VOD LN

Market capitalisation (GBPm) 54,968


Free float 100%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.17/3.73/-1.82


Sales (m) 47,631 46,117 45,154

EBITDA (m) 14,149 14,786 14,776

EBITDA margin 29.7% 32.1% 32.7%

EBIT (m) 3,970 5,028 4,484

EBIT margin 8.3% 10.9% 9.9%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 2,249 2,942 2,630

ROCE 4.0% 5.3% 4.3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 31,169 31,072 30,966



Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) high 29.6 18.0

EV/Sales 2.1 2.0 2.1

EV/EBITDA 6.9 6.2 6.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.7 6.0 6.5

EV/EBIT 24.7 18.4 21.4

P/E (adj.) 28.7 20.0 23.7

P/BV 0.9 0.8 0.9

OpFCF yield -18.4% 8.1% 7.0%


EPS (adj.) 0.08 0.11 0.10

BVPS 2.72 2.66 2.61

DPS 0.15 0.15 0.15

Shareholders

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240


vvdsvdvsdy

VODAFONE Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Gamenet


Q1-18 results should be helped by a better payout

The facts: Gamenet should report Q1-18e results today.

Our analysis: Gamenet results despite soft sales due to the higher PREU and

lower AWP machine for the industry streamlining agreed with the State, should

however report strong EBITDA growth thanks to efficiencies, acquisition of AWP

street operators and above all a lower payout than in Q1’17 (from app. 87% to app.

80%).

Gamenet Quarterly Results

Wagers (Eurm) Q117 Q118e % Ch.

AWPs 655 668 2%

VLTs 811 811 0%

Betting&online 195 191 -2%

Retail&Street OP. 117 119 2%

TOTAL 1778 1790 1%

Revenue (Eurm) Q117 Q118e % Ch.

AWPs 79 70 -11%

VLTs 56 54 -4%

Betting&online 15 25 63%

Retail&Street OP. 9 9 0%

TOTAL 159 158 -1%

P&L (Eurm) Q117 Q118e % Ch.

Tot. Sales 158.8 158.0 -1%

EBITDA 17.4 22.3 28%

% sales 11.0% 14.1%

D&A (10.5)

Prov./Non-Rec. (1.5)

EBIT na 10.3

EBIT margin 7%

Fin. Cost (3.9)

Extraordinary 0.0

Pre-tax profit na 6.4

Taxes (1.8)

Tax rate 28%

Net profit na 4.6

NFP 177.8 170.3

Source: Company Data, Banca Akros forecasts;

Conclusion & Action: Rating and PT confirmed

Gamenet

Italy | Travel & Leisure

TRAVEL & LEISURE Gamenet (Buy) YTM 2018 results: Good results and supportive guidance


Analyst(s)

Andrea Bonfà

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4269

Buy

8.93


12.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg GAME.MI/GAME IM



Free float 35%



Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -6.78/7.59/


Sales (m) 619 576 581

EBITDA (m) 82 85 90

EBITDA margin 13.3% 14.8% 15.5%

EBIT (m) 20 37 42

EBIT margin 3.2% 6.4% 7.2%


ROCE 4.0% 13.3% 18.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 153 152 128




EV/Sales 0.6 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 4.9 5.1 4.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.9 5.1 4.6

EV/EBIT 20.0 11.7 9.8

P/E (adj.) 17.6 17.4 14.1

P/BV 3.6 4.2 4.2

OpFCF yield 7.7% 11.6% 20.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.45 0.51 0.63

BVPS 2.20 2.11 2.15

DPS 0.60 0.60 0.60

Shareholders

Trilantic Capital Partners 45%; Intralot Italia Investments 20%;

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18

vvdsvdvsdy

GAMENET FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Trigano


Sharp increase in H1-18 results; upward revision to forecasts

The facts: H1 2018 results, factoring in Adria, beat our estimates. uEBIT came out

at EUR104m vs. EUR52.5m (+52% organic) and net income of EUR72.1m vs.

EUR56.6m (+85.6% organic).

Our analysis: While we were expecting a jump in results, the good surprise came

from Adria. This group generated an EBIT margin of 13%, i.e. 500bp more than

Trigano. Attractive personnel costs and a particularly effective production tool can

explain this economic performance which should improve even further. Purchasing

synergies have been generated that are profitable to both Adria (for chassis) and

Trigano (Slovenian suppliers). As Trigano is reaching full production capacity on its

historical scope for the production of VAN (rapid growth), management is envisaging

setting up a production site for VAN in Slovenia (Adria has strong expertise in this

market niche). However, Adria’s commercial distribution via service providers that

are different to those for Trigano means that not all the commercial synergies can

be extracted, a situation that is under negotiation.

Regarding other points, the challenge for Trigano lies in the momentum of its new

products, as the group no longer benefits from the effect of rebuilding inventories by

dealers. We are also factoring in a greater negative currency effect but alongside a

corporate tax rate for Adria of only 15%. We have not changed our revenues

estimate, but revise up that for margins in order to better integrate the ST and LT

effects of Adria on the accounts. The EBIT margin is set to increase to 9.9% in 2018

vs 9.4% and that for 2020 be 11.2% vs 10.5%.

Conclusion & Action: In this context and while maintaining the same valuation

multiples (EV/Sales of 0.8x; EV/EBITDA 10x; EV/EBIT 12x and P/E 16x), our

prospective value in 2020 increases to EUR207.2 vs EUR179.3 (+15.6%), i.e., a

present value of EUR178.6 vs EUR154.9. We adopt a Buy recommendation (vs.

Neutral).

Trigano

France | Travel & Leisure

TRAVEL & LEISURE Trigano (Buy) Q1-18 results should be helped by a better payout


Analyst(s)

Francis Prêtre

[email protected]

+33 4 78 92 02 30

Buy

151.30


178.63

154.92



from Neutral

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TRIA.PA/TRI FP



Free float 45%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.69/-0.66/53.62


Sales (m) 1,707 2,341 2,567

EBITDA (m) 186 249 298

EBITDA margin 10.9% 10.6% 11.6%

EBIT (m) 166 232 278

EBIT margin 9.8% 9.9% 10.8%


ROCE 23.7% 31.4% 34.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (83) (150) (272)


Debt/EBITDA -0.4 -0.6 -0.9


EV/Sales 1.2 1.2 1.0

EV/EBITDA 11.0 11.2 8.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.2 11.2 8.9

EV/EBIT 12.3 12.0 9.5

P/E (adj.) 16.6 16.8 12.8

P/BV 3.6 3.9 3.1

OpFCF yield 3.5% 3.1% 5.0%


EPS (adj.) 6.63 9.02 11.80

BVPS 30.60 38.36 48.78

DPS 1.20 1.30 1.50

Shareholders

Fran¿ois Feuillet 53%; Trigano 1.90%; Salari¿s 0.10%;

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170


vvdsvdvsdy

TRIGANO CAC Small & Mid 190 (Rebased)

Source: Factset

EDP


Announcement of EDP’s Board regarding the offer over EDP

The facts: In a statement EDP informed the market that the Executive Board of

Directors already initiated the relevant internal procedures for the purposes of

complying with the obligations it is legally bound to and shall issue its opinion in due

course regarding the other terms of the offer which will be brought to the Executive

Board of Directors of EDP’s attention through the release by the offeror of the draft

prospectus and launch announcement, which will namely include relevant detail

regarding the Industrial Plan.

Notwithstanding, the Executive Board of Directors considers that the price offered

does not adequately reflect the value of EDP and that the implied offer premium is

low considering what is customary for European utilities where the offeror has

acquired control.

Our analysis: We recall that China Three Gorges the largest shareholder with

23.3% of EDP launched a general and voluntary takeover offer for the shares

issued by EDP.

The price offered is EUR 3.26 per share This represents a premium of 4.8% over

Friday’s closing price (EUR 3.11) and approximately 10.8% over the volume-

weighted average price of the shares during the last six months (EUR 2.94).

Conclusion & Action: This is a first reaction of EDP board to the offer announced

last Friday.

EDP

Portugal | Utilities

UTILITIES EDP (Accumulate) Sharp increase in H1-18 results; upward revision to forecasts


Analyst(s)

Helena Barbosa

[email protected]

+351 21 389 6831

Accumulate

3.40


3.15




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg EDP.LS/EDP PL



Free float 36%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 7.05/23.68/3.03


Sales (m) 14,741 14,815 14,889

EBITDA (m) 4,109 3,472 3,594

EBITDA margin 27.9% 23.4% 24.1%

EBIT (m) 2,706 2,048 2,145

EBIT margin 18.4% 13.8% 14.4%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 1,343 791 863

ROCE 6.4% 4.8% 5.0%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 14,165 14,142 14,064




EV/Sales 1.8 1.9 1.9

EV/EBITDA 6.3 8.0 7.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.3 8.0 7.7

EV/EBIT 9.6 13.6 12.9

P/E (adj.) 7.9 15.7 14.4

P/BV 1.0 1.2 1.2

OpFCF yield 19.7% 8.7% 9.2%


EPS (adj.) 0.37 0.22 0.24

BVPS 2.75 2.78 2.82

DPS 0.19 0.19 0.19

Shareholders

China Three Gorges 23%; CNIC Co 5%; Capital Group

Companies 12%; Oppidum 7%; BlackRock 5%; Mubadala

(Abu Dhabi) 4%; BCP Group 2%; Qatar Investment 2%;

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20

3.30

3.40

3.50

abr 17 mai 17 jun 17 jul 17 ago 17 set 17 out 17 nov 17 dez 17 jan 18 fev 18 mar 18 abr 18 mai 18

vvdsvdvsdy

EDP Stoxx Utilities (Rebased)

Source: Factset

Erg


More wind and capacity off-set decreasing incentives

The facts: ERG has just unveiled its Q1 18 results.

Our analysis: ERG posted declining figures YoY:

ERG: Q1-18 results

The growth in hydroelectric and wind power output referring to the same perimeter

and new capacity in solar power and wind allowed to offset both the poorer price

and incentive scenario and the reduction in incentivised wind power capacity.

Good performance also for the thermoelectric power thanks to Energy Management

business, benefiting from higher value of Energy Efficiency Certificates.

2018 Outlook, more Capex: The company is confirming the EBITDA guidance

figure of Euro 475m for this year and is predicting higher investment (from 450m to

500m) increasing consequently the net debt figure from Euro 1,260m to

approximately Euro 1,300m after the dividend.

Regular + Special Dividends due to be distributed on May 21th (ex-date) for a total

of EUR 172m (regular div 75c/sh + 40c/sh special div).

Conclusion & Action: While the Strategic Plan execution is the real driver of the

stock, the first quarter results are not.

We look positively to the revised timing of investments and maintain our

positive stance on the stock. .

EURm Q1 2016A Q1 2017A Q1 2018A YoY Chg.

Revenues 295 300 284 -5.3%

EBITDA 163 151 162 7.3%

Wind 117 104 107 2.9%

Hydro 21 35 35 0.0%

Thermo 27 14 18 28.6%

Corporate -2 -2 -2 -

EBIT 99 90 94 4.4%

PBT 82 84 71 -15.5%

Net Profit adj 57 54 56 3.7%

Erg

Italy | Utilities

UTILITIES Erg (Accumulate) Announcement of EDP’s Board regarding the offer over EDP


Analyst(s)

Francesco Previtera

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4033

Accumulate

20.60


20.00




Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ERG.MI/ERG IM



Free float 36%




Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 9.63/30.71/73.69


Sales (m) 1,042 1,079 1,113

EBITDA (m) 453 465 458

EBITDA margin 43.5% 43.1% 41.2%

EBIT (m) 200 205 198

EBIT margin 19.2% 19.0% 17.8%


ROCE 5.0% 4.8% 4.7%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,557 1,414 1,131




EV/Sales 3.1 3.5 3.8

EV/EBITDA 7.2 8.0 9.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.2 8.0 9.2

EV/EBIT 16.3 18.2 21.3

P/E (adj.) 12.5 18.8 27.3

P/BV 0.9 1.3 1.7

OpFCF yield 18.6% 9.2% 11.4%


EPS (adj.) 0.81 0.82 0.75

BVPS 11.50 11.82 12.08

DPS 0.50 0.50 0.50

Shareholders

Own shares 1.00%; Unicredit 4%;

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21


vvdsvdvsdy

ERG FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)

Source: Factset

of 52

European Coverage of the Members of ESN

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Sogefi BAK Ramada CBI Eyemaxx Real Estate EQB Casino Guichard-Perrachon CIC

Stabilus EQB Semapa CBI Ferratum EQB Ceconomy Ag EQB

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Bankia GVC Brenntag EQB Wendel CIC

Bankinter GVC Fuchs Petro lub EQB F o o d & B everage M em(*)

Bbva GVC Holland Colours NIBC Acomo NIBC

Bcp CBI Imcd NIBC Atria OPG

ESN Analyser

of 52

General Industria ls M em(*) Orio la-Kd OPG Talgo GVC Salini Impregilo BAK

2G Energy EQB Orion OPG Technotrans EQB Sias BAK

Aalberts NIBC Orpea CIC Valmet OPG Sonae Industria CBI

Accell Group NIBC Pihlajalinna OPG Wacker Neuson Se EQB Srv OPG

Ahlstrom OPG Recordati BAK Wärtsilä OPG Tarkett CIC

Arcadis NIBC Silmaasema OPG Zardoya Otis GVC Thermador Groupe CIC

Aspo OPG Terveystalo OPG Industria l T ranspo rtat io n M em(*) Titan Cement IBG

Cembre BAK H o useho ld Go o ds M em(*) Bollore CIC Trevi BAK

Huhtamäki OPG De Longhi BAK Ctt CBI Uponor OPG

Kendrion NIBC Elica BAK Logwin EQB Vicat CIC

Nedap NIBC Fila BAK Insurance M em(*) Vinci CIC

Pöyry OPG M aisons Du M onde CIC Allianz EQB Volkerwessels NIBC

Prelios BAK Philips Lighting NIBC Axa CIC Yit OPG

Saf-Holland EQB Industria l Engineering M em(*) Banca M edio lanum BAK M edia M em(*)

Serge Ferrari Group CIC Accsys Technologies NIBC Catto lica Assicurazioni BAK Alma M edia OPG

Tkh Group NIBC Aixtron EQB Generali BAK Arnoldo M ondadori Editore BAK

General R etailers M em(*) Alstom CIC Hannover Re EQB Atresmedia GVC

Beter Bed Holding NIBC Ansaldo Sts BAK M apfre Sa GVC Axel Springer EQB

Elumeo Se EQB Biesse BAK M unich Re EQB Brill NIBC

Fielmann EQB Caf GVC Sampo OPG Cairo Communication BAK

Fnac Darty CIC Cargotec Corp OPG Talanx Group EQB Cofina CBI

Folli Fo llie Group IBG Carraro BAK Unipolsai BAK Cts Eventim EQB

Fourlis Holdings IBG Cnh Industrial BAKM aterials, C o nstruct io n &

InfrastructureM em(*) Digital Bros BAK

Grandvision NIBC Danieli BAK Abertis GVC Gedi Gruppo Editoriale BAK

Hornbach Holding EQB Datalogic BAK Acs GVC Gl Events CIC

Inditex GVC Deutz Ag EQB Aena GVC Impresa CBI

Jumbo IBG Duerr EQB Aeroports De Paris CIC Io l BAK

Ovs BAK Emak BAK Astaldi BAK Ipsos CIC

Rapala OPG Envipco NIBC Atlantia BAK Jcdecaux CIC

Stockmann OPG Exel Composites OPG Boskalis Westminster NIBC Lagardere CIC

Takkt Ag EQB Fincantieri BAK Buzzi Unicem BAK M 6-M etropole Television CIC

Tokmanni OPG Gea Group EQB Caverion OPG M ediaset BAK

Unieuro BAK Gesco EQB Cramo OPG M ediaset Espana GVC

Windeln.De EQB Heidelberger Druck EQB Eiffage CIC Notorious Pictures BAK

Yoox Net-A-Porter BAK Ima BAK Ellaktor IBG Nrj Group CIC

Zalando EQB Indus Holding Ag EQB Eltel OPG Publicis CIC

H ealthcare M em(*) Interpump BAK Ezentis GVC Rcs M ediagroup BAK

4Sc EQB Koenig & Bauer EQB Fcc GVC Relx NIBC

Abivax NIBC Kone OPG Ferrovial GVC Rtl Group EQB

Advicenne NIBC Konecranes OPG Heidelberg Cement Ag CIC Sanoma OPG

Amplifon BAK Krones Ag EQB Heijmans NIBC Solocal Group CIC

Bayer EQB M anitou CIC Imerys CIC Spir Communication CIC

Biotest EQB M anz Ag EQB Lafargeholcim CIC Syzygy Ag EQB

Diasorin BAK M ax Automation Ag EQB Lehto OPG Teleperformance CIC

El.En. BAK M etso Corporation OPG Lemminkäinen OPG Tf1 CIC

Epigenomics Ag EQB Outotec OPG M aire Tecnimont BAK Ubisoft CIC

Genfit CIC Pfeiffer Vacuum EQB M ota Engil CBI Vivendi CIC

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Guerbet CIC Prima Industrie BAK Ramirent OPG Xing Ag EQB

Heidelberg Pharma EQB Prysmian BAK Royal Bam Group NIBC

Korian CIC Schaltbau Holding Ag EQB Sacyr GVC

M erck EQB Smt Scharf Ag EQB Saint Gobain CIC

of 52

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Eni BAK Igd BAK Openjobmetis BAK Iberso l CBI

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Gas Plus BAK M erlin Properties GVCT echno lo gy H ardware &

EquipmentM em(*) Intralo t IBG

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M aurel Et Prom CIC Technopolis OPG Asml NIBC M elia Hotels International GVC

M otor Oil IBG Wcm Ag EQB Besi NIBC Nh Hotel Group GVC

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Qgep CBI Affecto OPG Gigaset EQB Snaitech BAK

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Total CIC Alten CIC Roodmicrotec NIBC Sodexo CIC

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Cgg CIC Atos CIC Stmicroelectronics BAK Utilit ies M em(*)

Fugro NIBC Axway Software CIC Suess M icrotec EQB Acciona GVC

Rubis CIC Basware OPG Teleste OPG Acea BAK

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Tod'S BAK Asiakastieto Group OPG Air France Klm CIC

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Adler Real Estate EQB Cellnex Telecom GVC Beneteau CIC

Beni Stabili BAK Dpa NIBC Compagnie Des Alpes CIC

Citycon OPG Ei Towers BAK Elior CIC

Demire EQB Enav BAK Europcar CIC

Deutsche Euroshop EQB Fiera M ilano BAK Finnair OPG

Grivalia IBG Inwit BAK Gamenet BAK

LEGEND: BAK: Banca Akros; CIC: CM CIC Market Solutions; CBI: Caixa-Banco de Investimento; GVC: GVC Gaesco Beksa, SV, SA; EQB: equinet bank; IBG: Investment Bank of Greece, NIBC: NIBC Bank N.V: OPG: OP Corporate Bank:;as of 4

th April 2018

of 52

List of ESN Analysts (**)

Artur Amaro CBI +351 213 89 6822 [email protected] Konstantinos Manolopoulos IBG +30 210 817 3388 [email protected]

Stefan Augustin EQB +49-69-58997-430 [email protected] Katharina Mayer EQB +49 69 58997-432 [email protected]

Helena Barbosa CBI +351 21 389 6831 [email protected] Fanny Meindre, PhD CIC +33 1 53 48 80 84 [email protected]

Winfried Becker EQB +49 69 58997-416 [email protected] Marietta Miemietz CFA EQB +49-69-58997-439 [email protected]

Javier Bernat GVC +34 91 436 7816 jav [email protected] Dustin Mildner EQB +49 69 58997-438 [email protected]

Dimitris Birbos IBG +30 210 81 73 392 [email protected] Henri Parkkinen OPG +358 10 252 4409 [email protected]

Agnès Blazy CIC +33 1 53 48 80 67 [email protected] Victor Peiro Pérez GVC +34 91 436 7812 [email protected]

Rafael Bonardell GVC +34 91 436 78 71 [email protected] Alexandre Plaud CIC +33 1 53 48 80 90 [email protected]

Andrea Bonfà BAK +39 02 4344 4269 [email protected] Francis Prêtre CIC +33 4 78 92 02 30 [email protected]

Jean-Baptiste Bouchet CIC +33 1 53 48 80 69 [email protected] Francesco Previtera BAK +39 02 4344 4033 francesco.prev [email protected]

Christian Bruns EQB +49 69 58997 415 [email protected] Jari Raisanen OPG +358 10 252 4504 [email protected]

Giada Cabrino, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4092 [email protected] Hannu Rauhala OPG +358 10 252 4392 [email protected]

Niclas Catani OPG +358 10 252 8780 [email protected] Matias Rautionmaa OPG +358 10 252 4408 [email protected]

Pierre Chedeville CIC +33 1 53 48 80 97 [email protected] Eric Ravary CIC +33 1 53 48 80 71 [email protected]

Emmanuel Chevalier CIC +33 1 53 48 80 72 [email protected] Iñigo Recio Pascual GVC +34 91 436 7814 [email protected]

David Da Maia CIC +33 1 53 48 89 36 [email protected] John David Roeg NIBC +31 (0)20 550 86 46 [email protected]

Edwin de Jong NIBC +312 0 5508569 [email protected] Jean-Luc Romain CIC +33 1 53 48 80 66 [email protected]

Martijn den Drijver NIBC +312 0 5508636 [email protected] Vassilis Roumantzis IBG +30 2108173394 [email protected]

Christian Devismes CIC +33 1 53 48 80 85 [email protected] Zafer Rüzgar EQB +49 69 58 99 74 12 [email protected]

Andrea Devita, CFA BAK +39 02 4344 4031 [email protected] Antti Saari OPG +358 10 252 4359 [email protected]

Enrico Esposti, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4022 [email protected] Paola Saglietti BAK +39 02 4344 4287 [email protected]

Rafael Fernández de Heredia GVC +34 91 436 78 08 [email protected] Francesco Sala BAK +39 02 4344 4240 [email protected]

Gabriele Gambarova BAK +39 02 43 444 289 [email protected] Tim Schuldt, CFA EQB +49 69 5899 7433 [email protected]

Eduardo Garcia Arguelles GVC +34 914 367 810 [email protected] Cengiz Sen EQB +4969 58997 435 [email protected]

Alexandre Gérard CIC +33 1 53 48 80 93 [email protected] Pekka Spolander OPG +358 10 252 4351 [email protected]

Philipp Häßler, CFA EQB +49 69 58997 414 [email protected] Kimmo Stenvall OPG +358 10 252 4561 [email protected]

Simon Heilmann EQB +49 69 58 997 413 [email protected] Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi IBG +30 210 81 73 384 [email protected]

Dr. Knud Hinkel, CFA EQB + 49 69 58997 419 [email protected] Manuel Tanzer, CFA EQB +49 69 58997-418 [email protected]

Ebrahim Homani CIC +33 1 53 48 80 87 [email protected] Luigi Tramontana BAK +39 02 4344 4239 [email protected]

Carlos Jesus CBI +351 21 389 6812 [email protected] Johan van den Hooven NIBC +312 0 5508518 [email protected]

Mark Josefson EQB +4969-58997-437 [email protected] Dylan van Haaften NIBC +312 0 611915485 [email protected]

Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq CIC +33 1 53 48 80 65 [email protected] Sebastian Winkler NIBC +31 6 21 16 17 94 [email protected]

João Miguel Lourenço CBI +35 121 389 6841 [email protected]

(**) excluding: strategists, macroeconomists, heads of research not covering specific stocks, credit analysts, technical analysts

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ESN Recommendation System

The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the

basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital

reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.

The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5

categories: Buy (B), Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).

Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to

rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.

Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time horizon

Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved

Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of volatility on the markets

ESN Ratings Breakdown

For full ESN Recommendation and Target price history (in the last 12 months) please see ESN Website Link

Date and time of production: 15/05/2018 09:07 CET First date and time of dissemination: 15/05/2018 09:09 CET

Buy38%

Accumulate31%

Neutral25%

Reduce5%

Sell1%

ESN Analyser

http://www.esnpartnership.eu/research_and_database_access

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Phone: +34 91 436 7813

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Phone: +33 1 53 48 81 93

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