ESPON 2.1.1

Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies

Roberta Capello

Seminario ESPON15 gennaio 2004

Roma,Università di Tor Vergata

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Aims of the project

to provide a cost assessment of future efficiency and cohesion ICTs policies, through the construction of policy scenarios and the measurement of the impact of efficiency and cohesion policies on regional growth and disparities.

to detect different regional responses to ICTs policies, by highlighting different behavioural attitudes and reacting capacities of regions in front of alternative ICTs policy scenarios.

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Territorial impact of EU ICTs policies

Available results:– maps on

• accessibility absolute growth rate

• Internet absolute growth rate

• pc GDP average annual growth rate

(at 2020 in the three scenarios)– cohesion indicators

• Lorenz curves• Gini coefficients

• maps on differences in pc GDP average annual growth– typologies of regions by ICTs policies impact

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STIMA model structureChange ofICTs

investments

Change of ICTs endowment

Quasiproduction function

Change of GDP per capita

Change of absolute GDP

Change of virtual accessibility

Change in regional disparities

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Data Scarce availability of disaggregated territorial data on ICTs

– at Nuts 3: no availability

– at Nuts 2: EOS Gallup Survey 1999

• survey conducted in households in the 15 Countries of the European Union

• data collected through face-to-face interviews

• by means of a quantitative questionnaire

• on a representative sample in each Member State

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EOS Gallup sample

Country Sampling Plan Real Sample Nuts level used for sampling Belgique 2000 1961 NUTS 1

Danmark 2000 2060 NUTS 3

Deutschland 5000 5139 NUTS 1

Ellada 2000 2000 NUTS 2

España 5000 5000 NUTS 2

France 5000 5301 NUTS 1

Ireland 1400 1397 NUTS 3

Italia 5000 5134 NUTS 1

Luxembourg 1000 1009 NUTS 1

Nederland 2000 2037 NUTS 1

Österreich 2000 2000 NUTS 1

Portugal 2000 2138 NUTS 2

Finland 2000 2002 NUTS 2

Sverige 2000 1951 NUTS 2

United Kingdom 5150 5211 NUTS 1

Total 43550 44340

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Scenario Hypotheses Scenarios based on hypotheses on regional distribution of

EU ICTs investments

– among regions

• lagging vs advanced

– among ICTs policies suggested by eEurope 2002 (DG Information society)

• accessibility

• internet connections

• high-tech employment

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Distribution of ICTs investments according to different ICTs policy scenarios

ICTs Scenarios Regions ICTs Policies

Scenario AIndiscriminate scenario

All regions Investments distributed according toregional population

All regions 33% Accessibility33% Internet33% High tech employment

Lagging regions 20% of total investmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of lagging regionspopulation

Lagging regions 70% Accessibility30% Internet

Scenario BEfficiency scenario

Non lagging regions 80% of total InvestmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of non lagging regionspopulation

Non lagging regions 30% Accessibility70% Internet

Scenario CCohesion scenario

Lagging regions 100% of total investmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of lagging regionspopulation

Lagging regions 33% Accessibility33% Internet33% High tech employment

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Forecasting methodology

2% of average annual ICTs investments in 15 EU member states

estimate of marginal efficiency of investments in accessibility, internet connections and high-tech employment

forecast of pc GDP average annual growth rate in 20 years

cohesion indicators (lorenz curve, gini coefficient)

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Scenario A: pc GDP average annual growth rate

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Scenario B: pc GDP average annual growth rate

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Scenario C: pc GDP average annual growth rate

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Cohesion indicators

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Typology of regions by ICTs policies impact

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Further Research Model refinement of STIMA according to data availability

Model integration of SASI and STIMA

Qualitative analysis of specific policies like deregulation