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Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana

Ashwin Mysore

Gerald J. Friedman Fellow in Nutrition and

Citizenship

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Transgenic crops, agricultural development & developing countries

Relevance and potential of transgenic crops in developing countries…

The debate continues…ISAAA, 2007.

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"Will it take a miracle to solve the worlds hunger problems?"

Campbell, 1998; FAO, 2007; Sprague, undated; South Dakota Dept of Agriculture, undated.

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“ Golden Rice can reduce Vitamin A Deficiency burden in India by 8-59 %”

Golden Rice Humanitarian Board; UN, 1998; Stein, Sachdev and Qaim, 2008.

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How Much Hope and How Much Hype?Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana

FAO, 2001; www.luventicus.org

Ashwin Mysore & Kathleen Merrigan, AFE Program, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy

Under Review, World Development

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Drought tolerant transgenic crops in pipeline- Corn, Soy, Cotton, Canola, Tomato

Corn: 2010-2015

MX variety : 10 % higher yield under drought conditionsMY variety : 40 % higher yield

Tomato: Advanced stage of development

TX variety : 20 % higher yield TY variety : 38% higher yield

Africa News Network; AVRDC, 2006; Various media reports and project documents of Monsanto, Evogene

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Why Ghana?

High food insecurity among food crop growing farmers

Low access to irrigation•Total cultivated area (2002-05) : 5.2 mha•Total irrigation potential :1.9 mha•Irrigated area (2000) : 0.31mha

Drought episodes, erratic rainfall compounded by declining soil fertility

Corn and tomato are important crops

Aggrey Fynn et al., 2006; FAOSTAT; FAO, 2005a,b; Horna et al., 2006; IWMI.

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Estimating potential benefits

•Average yield and producer prices (1991-2005)

•Reduction in yield and gross returns due to varying intensity of drought

•Gains in yield due to technology adoption

•Technology Fee

Study variables:

All calculations for Ghana and the US

Outcome indicator of interest: gross returns ($ / ha) with technology adoption

Sprague, undated; USDA, undated.

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Low Medium Severe

Ghana 15 34 50

USA 10 35 50

Based on existing trends – cost difference between traits & countries

Campos et al., 2004; Farm Service Agency, 2007; FAO, 2005a; Heisey and Edmeades, 1998; IITA, undated; USDA Risk Management Agency, 2007.

Technology fees

US: $127/ha; Ghana: $ 71/ha.

Yield loss (%) due to drought incidence

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Returns ($) per $ investment on technology

Technology adoption

Drought intensity

Normal agricultural season

Low drought incidence

Medium drought incidence

Severe drought incidence

Adoption of MX Corn

Ghana - 0.6 -0.66 - 0.74 - 0.8

US - 0.4 -0.46 - 0.61 - 0.7

Adoption of MY Corn

Ghana 0.59 0.35 0.05 - 0.21

US 1.38 1.1 0.55 0.19

Adoption of TX Tomato

Ghana 7.1 5.87 4.33 3.04

US 14.0 12.52 8.76 6.51

Adoption of TY Tomato

Ghana 14.36 12.05 9.13 6.68

US 27.54 24.69 17.5 13.27

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Sensitivity analysis for maize by considering 3 levels of technology fees

Contribution of drought tolerant corn towards household food security

T1: $53.3; T2: $71.0; T3: $88.8

Household (4 members) cost of meeting minimum food and nutrition requirements- $305.2

% household food and nutrition requirements met by adopting MY variety Various levels of

Technology Fee($ /ha) Drought intensity

Normal agricultural season

Low drought incidence

Medium drought incidence

Severe drought incidence

T1 (53.3) 23.4 16.7 8.3 1.2

T2 (71.0) 16.4 9.7 1.3 -

T3 (88.8) 9.4 2.7 - -

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Study implications

Potential for water conservation and management in tomato production

First generation corn varieties unlikely to benefit farmers

Gains to US farmers greatest

Technology fee – key issue which will determine technology adoption and benefits