etp2010 presentation santiago

8/9/2019 ETP2010 Presentation Santiago

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OECD/IEA - 2010

Energy Technology

Perspectives 2010


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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

OECD/IEA - 2010

The context

Need a global energy technology revolution tomeet climate change and energy securitychallenges.

Some early signs of progress, but much moreneeds to be done.

Which technologies can play a role?

What are the costs and benefits?

What policies are needed?


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to 2050

OECD/IEA - 2010

Global energy-related CO2 emissions inthe Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2030 2050 2030 2050

Baseline BLUEMap

GtCO2

Other

Buildings

Transport

Industry

OthertransformationPowergeneration

Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in

the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectorsreduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Key technologies for reducing globalCO2 emissions

A wide range of technologies will be necessary toreduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

4550

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GtCO2

CCS19%

Renewables17%

Nuclear6%

Powergenerationefficiency

andfuelswitching5%

Endusefuelswitching 15%

Endusefuelandelectricity

efficiency38%

BLUEMap emissions14Gt

Baselineemissions57Gt

WEO

2009

450

ppmcase

ETP2010 analysis


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Primary energy demand by fuel and byscenario

By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than

today under the BLUE Map scenario.

0

10002000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Mtoe 2007 Baseline2050 BLUEMap2050

27%

36%


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Average annual electricity capacityadditions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario

Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon

technologies must be massively increased fromtodays levels.

0 10 20 30 40 50

SolarCSP

SolarPV

Geothermal

Windoffshore

Windonshore

Biomassplants

Hydro

Nuclear

Gasfired

with

CCS

CoalfiredwithCCS

GW/yr

Presentrate GaptoreachBLUEMap

30plants(1000MW)

200 plants (50MW)

12000turbines (4MW)

3600

turbines

(4

MW)

45units(100MW)

55CSPplants(250MW)

325millionm2 solarpanels

2/3ofThreeGorgesDam

35plants(500MW)

20plants

(500

MW)

Historicalhigh


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to 2050

OECD/IEA - 2010

Environmental co-impacts of electricitygeneration technologies

Most renewable technologies have positiveenvironmental co-impacts.

Air Water Land Air Water Land

Coal USC 0.777

Coal BiomassPo s iti ve Po s i ti ve

Variable /

Uncertain

Variable /

UncertainMi ni ma l Mi ni ma l

0.622

Coal CCSNe ga ti ve Ne ga ti ve Ne ga ti ve

Variable /

UncertainNegative Minimal

0.142

Coal IGCCMinimal Variable

/

UncertainMi ni ma l Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Mi ni ma l

0.708

NGCCPos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve

0.403

NuclearPositive

Variable /

Uncertain

Variable /

UncertainPos i ti ve Ne ga ti ve Pos i ti ve

0.005

Solar

CSP Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Nega ti ve Mi ni ma l 0.017

Solar PVPos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Mi ni ma l

0.009

WindPos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve Pos iti ve

Variable /

Uncertain 0.002

CO2

Emissions

t/MWh

EnergyTechnologies

BaselineTechnologyforRelativeAssessmentsBelow

LifeCycleImpacts(Pre andPostGeneration) PowerGenerationImpacts


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050

Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can

facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such asrenewables and electric vehicles.

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

Direct reductions Enabled reductions

Greaterintegrationof

renewables

Facilitationofelectricvehicles

andpluginelectricvehicles

Energysavingsfrompeakload

management

Continuouscommissioning of

servicesectorloads

Accelerateddeployment

of

energyefficiencyprograms

Reducedlinelosses(voltage

control)

Directfeedbackonenergyusage

0.34

0.69

0.31 0.62

0.09

0.27

0.03 0.25

0.01 0.05

0.00

0.01

0.07 0.27

G

tCO2

/yr


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Evolution of energy use in transport byfuel

500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

Baseline Baseline BLUEMap2007 2030 2050

Mtoe

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Electricity

CNGandLPGGTLandCTLHeavyfueloilJetfuelDiesel

Gasoline

Biofuels and electricity will replace gasoline and dieseldemand in the BLUE Map scenario.


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Direct energy and process CO2emissions in industry by sector

Energy efficiency and CCS are the two most importantabatement options in industry.

CO2

emissionssavings

CO2

emissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 Baseline2050 BLUEMap2050

GtCO2

Energyefficiency

Fuelswitching

Recycling/energyrecovery

CCS

Other

Pulpand

paper

Cement

Aluminium

Chemicals

Ironand

steel


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Contributions to CO2 emissionsreductions in the buildings sector

Decarbonisation of the electricity sector contributes

around half of the emissions reduction in thebuildings sector.

Spaceandwaterheatingandcooling

20%

Buildingshell11%

Cooking,lightingandappliances

21%

Electricitydecarbonisation

48%


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Additional investment needs in theBLUE Map scenario

Over the period to 2050, most of the additional

investment in low-carbon technologies will be neededin non-OECD countries.

0

100

200

300

400500

600

700

800

2010

2030

2030

2050

2010

2030

2030

2050

2010

2030

2030

2050

2010

2030

2030

2050

OECD Other

major

economies Emerging

economies Least

developed

countries

USDbillion

/yr

Buildings

Transport

Industry

Powersector


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OECD/IEA - 2010

OECD and non-OECD primary energydemand in the Baseline scenario

Primary energy demand in non-OECD countries isprojected to increase much faster than in OECDcountries in the Baseline scenario.

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2007 Baseline

2015

Baseline

2030

Baseline

2050

Mtoe

NonOECD

OECD


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Additional investment and fuelsavings, 2010-2050

Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in theBLUE Map scenario more than offset the additionalinvestment required.

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

20

40

60Investment

Fu

elsavings

USDtrillion(2010

2050)

Commercial

Residential

Transport

Industry

Powerdistribution

Powertransmission

Powergeneration

Biomassandwaste

Naturalgas

Oil

Coal

Undiscounte

d

3%

discount

10%discount

Total


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Technology policies

Carbon pricing is important, but should becomplemented by other policies

Policies must be tailored to the technologys

stage of development and its penetration oflocal markets

Public RD&D spending must at least double

Governments need to implement best practicesin energy RD&D

A number of enabling actions are also needed:

Private sector leadership Expanded human capacity

Greater government outreach and planning oninfrastructure needs

Expanded, more effective internationalcollaboration


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Policies for supporting low-carbontechnologies

Government support policies need to be appropriatelytailored to the stage(s) of technological development.


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Key messages

Some early signs of an energy technology revolution,but change is still fragile and fragmented

Rapid, large-scale deployment of low carbon

technologies is needed to halve CO2 emissions by 2050

This w ill also reduce fossil fuel use and improve energysecurity

Fuel savings may outweigh additional investments Improved energy efficiency and decarbonising

electricity are key; new technologies needed after 2030

Urgent action required emissions must peak by

around 2020

Non-OECD countries also need to cut emissions

Governments must take lead to set the policy

framework, but industry also has a role


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Roadmaps


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Consumpt ion

Product ion

20 50 : A de t a i led r eg iona l assessm en t w i t h som e HVDC l i n es

CSP Roadmap


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Wind Roadmap

Wind has the potent ia l to p rov ide 12% of g loba l elec t r i c i t y p roduct ion in 2050


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Unpr eceden t ed ra tes o f change in m ark e t pene t r a t i on o f advanced t echn o log ies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PassengerLDV

Sales(million)

H2hybridfuelcell

Electricity

CNG/LPG

Pluginhybriddiesel

Diesel

hybrid

Conventionaldiesel

Pluginhybridgasoline

Hybrid(gasoline)

Conventionalgasoline

Light-duty vehicle sales by technology type to 2050

Electric Vehicle Roadmap


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to 2050

OECD/IEA - 2010

Nuc lear i s a p r oven t echn o logy and can p lay an i m p o r t a n t r o le in a l ow - car b o n s t r a t e g y

Nuclear Energy Roadmap

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Shareofglob

alelectricityprod

uction

InstalledcapacityGW

Africa&MiddleEast

EconomiesinTransition

OtherDevelopingAsiaOECDPacificOECDEuropeLatinAmericaUS&CanadaIndia

China

BLUEMapBLUEHighNuclear


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Platform slide


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PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

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to 2050

OECD/IEA - 2010

Thank You

www.iea.org/ techno/ etp/ index.asp


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OECD/IEA - 2010

ANNEX


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OECD/IEA - 2010

GDP projections

(% per year based on purchasing power parity)


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Oil, gas and coal price assumptions

For the BLUE Scenario (in USD per unit)

For the Baseline Scenario (in USD per unit)

Carbon Price in the BLUE Map


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OECD/IEA - 2010

Carbon Price in the BLUE Mapscenario

USD / t CO2 2020 2030 2050

OECD 50 110 175

Non-OECD 0 65 175

etp2010 presentation santiago

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