eu and u.s. policies on biofuels: potential impacts on developing countries
TRANSCRIPT
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EU and U.S. PoliciESon BiofUElS:
PotEntial imPactSon
dEvEloPing coUntriES
Marcos J. Jank
Graldine Kutas
Luiz Fernando do Amaral
Andr M. Nassar
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EU and U.S. Policies on Biouels:Potential Impacts on Developing Countries1
C:
M S. Jk
P, I I N (ICONE)
A:
G K
R, G E M S P (GEM)
Lz F A
R, I I N (ICONE)
A M. N
G M, I I N (ICONE)
I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
B y EU U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
. E U . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.. EU b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
..2 P b . . . . . . . . . . . 7
..3 EU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
..4 P b . . . . . . . . . . 8
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.2.2 P . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2 B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2. D w . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.. Bz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2..2 Cb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2..3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2..4 S A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
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T y E P, GEM M M, L R D A ICONE, y.
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2..6 G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2..7 E S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.2 D w b . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2. My. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2.2 I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3 EU U.S. b x
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
3.. EU b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
3..2 U.S. b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.2 Sb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.2. EU b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.2.2 U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
4 I B P U.S. EU D C . . . . 25
4. D b . . . . . . . . . 25
4.. E U . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4..2 U S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.2 L x . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5 C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries
y ,
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w y .
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Introduction
Tropical andsubtropicaldevelopingcountries have areal comparative
advantage inthe productionof feedstock forbiofuels end-use,
such as canesugar and palmoil. These rawmaterials can beproduced at alower costand they are morenergy efficient
than feedstockavailable indeveloped countrie
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States
Cy y y b
yb-b . B y
b
, w b
. I y, w
b b b EU
U.S., b b
b A. b
: y y,
, .
b y
b EU U.S.,
y (202),
x b w
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w x y,
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B b U.S.
y , w b y.
1.1 EuropeanUnion
EU y b
wb . ,
w 997, 2
wb y by 200. By
EC 2003/30 2003, EU bk
2 b
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200. bj
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- (45 /).
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b -
w
EU. y
,
, -
b b
j. A w b , y
b w
bw bj.
D
, E y
Fby 2007
0 b b by
y 2020.
1.1.1 EUproductionandconsumptionofbiodiesel
Uk b ky y, EU
b b. Fy 54.6
EU
45.4 . Hw,
b: b 80
EU b . I 2005,
EU j b w Gy
(52.4 ), F (5.5 ), Iy
(2.4 ). k
Biofuels State of Play in the EU
and the U.S.1
The non-
harmonization
of policies at
the EU level
has encouraged
member statesto act as free-
riders and to
elaborate their
own action plans
and instruments
independently
of the policies
carried out in the
rest of the EU.
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries
b (xy
90 EU b ).
Sw, , y y
q.
A ,
b y qky
y b 2000
4.45 b 2005.2 x
b
k.
w
y - 780,000
2004 ,634,000 2006, 22
b .
x k y
. Cy EU
2 EOb 2006.
b 40
xy 62
b.
y
w y k
b (2,000 /).
. F w
bw
x b
EU. Bw 20022003
20062007, j by 63
.
b
q -
y w
b , , y.
Table 1: Biofuels Incorporation Rates (2005)
Total EU-25 Around 1% Iy 0.5
A 0.93 L 0.33
B 0 L 0.72
Cy 0 Lxb 0.02
Cz Rb 0.05 M 0.52
Dk* 0 N 0.02
E 0 P 0.48
F* 0 P 0
F 0.97 Sk* 0.5
Gy 3.75 S 0.35
G* 0 S 0.44
Hy 0.07 U K 0.8
I 0.05 Sw 2.23
Objective: 2%
* 2004 b 2005 w .S:E C
The surge in
rape oil prices
and the increasin
share of the oil
production used
for biodiesel
have significant
consequences
on the agri-food
industry that
uses rape oil as
raw material for
the production
of bottled oil,
margarine,
and pastry.
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States
Figure 1: Evolution of Rape Oil Prices in the EU
(US$/ton)
(%)
Note: Rape oil prices, Dutch, fob ex-mill.
Sources: Oil world, elaboration by the authors.
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07
% of rape oil used for biodiesel production Rape oil price
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Figure 2: EU Imports of Vegetable Oils
(1,
000
tons)
Source: Oil World
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2003 2004 2005 2006
Soybean oil Sunflower oil Rape oil Palm oil
If the EU
decides to limit
the oilseed area
dedicated to
biodiesel feedstock
to 50 percent ofthe total oilseed
area, the EU will
need to import
4.16 million tons
of vegetable oil
or biodiesel.
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries
F b
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b . Bw 2003 2006, EU
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3.4 bw 200 2006. Cy
5 EU .
1.1.2 Perspectivesonbiodieselproduction
andconsumption
A bj by EU
b b,3 b
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b w b w 85
5 w , EU
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jy b /
w /.
w
y EU y.
Hw, w
b EU w b
b b b w .
I b w
b q
EU w b b. I, , y, w
x b.
1.1.3 EUproductionandconsumptionofethanol
A EU w
, b Bz
U.S. I 2006, EU by 7
2005, b y .5
b .
EU Gy (28 ), S (26 ),
F (6 ), Sw (9 ), Iy
(8 ), P (8 ).4
Cy Bz
U.S., w
4 E B F A (B), M 2, 2007.
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States
( Bz
U.S.), y k
EU. C (w, , by,
y) j ,w by b w. S b
; 7,250
by (3,25 ). Hw,
b
b -b .
Cy y F
b, b x.
B
b , b b
z k w
EU x
b by y . O y,
w b w
CMO,5 Fby
5 C Mk Oz.
2006, b by 40
x
W Oz (WO) q
(.3 ).
A
w
6,
Bz x 230
EU 2006 (5 EU
). C w Sw
U K, F.7
1.1.4 Perspectivesonbioethanolproduction
andconsumption
y w EU bj, 6.6 ,
6 E 22070 220720 z z .
7 D by BIO (E B FA).
Figure 3: Projections of Required Oilseeds Area to Reach the 2012 Objective
(mnha)
Sources: ONIGC, European Commission, projections by the authors.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
88%
17%
22% 16%
12%
83%78%
84%Food Biodiesel Projections with no biodiesel imports
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries
9.2 b by 202.
B y EU y
, y
w w b k EU
by 202. B b
j by E
C, b
x w, b,
.
b 2
202. I b
w, ,
b b w j
. I , w w
y 8.2 EU w
q q w b
q 50 j w x. I
, w 6. .
w b b
29. x b
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by
2006 .
b 2 y
EU k w ,
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EU w .
1.2 UnitedStates
U.S. w b ,
z 3.2 b (840 )
y. A
200 .8
A U.S. ,
64 .
I A 2005, P G W. B
Ey Py A.
28.4 b wb
by 202 (Rwb F S),
5 ( )
j y 202. Hw,
8 EIA. W y G , Ey IA B, DOE/EIA X059, My 2006. Ab ://www...//b/06/.. A A 5, 2007.
Table 2: Projections for EU Production of Ethanol 2012
2006 2012
E Fk E Fk
(mn liters) Share (mn tons) (mn liters) Share (mn tons)
Total 1,560 TotalFor
ethanol10,085 Total
For
ethanol
W 504 32.3% 09.3 .4 4,034 40% 35.9 .2
By 440 28.2% 53.6 . 440 4% 46. .
C 200 2.8% 44.6 0.5 ,29 3% 5.9 3.2
Ry 200 2.8% 7.8 0.5 200 2% 9. 0.5
B 88 5.6% 4.7 0.8 3,864 38% 20.7 35.2
W 28 8.2% 256 3%
S: BIO, E C, by .
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States10
b , U.S.
by bj. I 2007 S
U A, P B y w q 32.5
b wb by
207, y 5 202 w .
I w 5 j
.9
1.2.1 U.S.productionandconsumptionofethanol
w
b xy
y. Bw 2002 2006,
by 23 , w
9 I y q. I w 24 ( w b y ). T by 0 b( ) q y . T, B , w b .
w by 27 y. A
, b ( )
.5 2002 3.8 2006, 20.4 b .
b U.S.
b b . F,
Rwb F S (RFS)
k . S,
k y x , U.S.
y
y. Hw,
k b
y y b .
Py, 20 y x
(F 4). C US$54
Jy 2007,0 (F 5),
x .
0 CBO- C B
Figure 4: Corn Utilization in the U.S.
(milliontons)
Source: 1990-2006: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA); 2006-2010: projection presentedby Prof. Bruce Babcock at the WWC Biofuel seminar (Feb2007).
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Consumption Animal feed and seeds Fuel Exports
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States12
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Figure 6: U.S. Fuel Ethanol and MTBE Consumption
MTBE Ethanol
Jan-0
0
Apr-0
0
Jul-00
Oct-0
0
Jan-0
1
Apr-0
1
Jul-01
Oct-0
1
Jan-0
2
Apr-0
2
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-0
3
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-0
3
Jan-0
4
Apr-0
4
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-0
5
Apr-0
5
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-0
6
Apr-0
6
Jul-06
Oct-0
6
Jan-9
9
Apr-9
9
Jul-99
Oct-9
9
(billion
liters)
Source: Energy Information Agency (EIA), elaboration by the authors
MTBE banned in California,New York and Connecticut
Figure 7: U.S. Ethanol Imports
(millionliters)
Source: United States International Trade Commission (USITC)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Brazil Caribbean Basin China Others
Jan-0
4
Feb-0
4
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-0
4
Jun-0
4
Jul-04
Aug-0
4
Sept-04
Oct-04
Nov-0
4
Dec-0
4
Jan-0
5
Feb-0
5
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-0
5
Jun-0
5
Jul-05
Aug-0
5
Sept-05
Oct-05
Nov-0
5
Dec-0
5
Jan-0
6
Feb-0
6
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-0
6
Jun-0
6
Jul-06
Aug-0
6
Sept-06
Oct-06
Nov-0
6
Dec-0
6
2004:
920 million liters
2005:
820 million liters
2006:
2,740 million liters
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries1
1.2.2 Perspectivesonethanolproductionandconsumption
I (202),
U.S. x b
0 , , .
I w 56.6 b .
G w q
A w
b.
Pj y y
j x b 45.2 b
2009. I w
y 0 , U.S. w b b
4.7 b 202 (47
Rwb F S ),
q 07 .
7.4 . I b
w b w ,
y w . S
W y w w (.5 y) w w 5 .
b 53 b ,2 9.4 b.
Hw, x 2 b (
7.4 9.4 ) w q
5 44 .
G U.S. , w
w b y
w bj . A
q, U.S.
w bby b by y
y by x
b y-
U.S. k.3
b 3 z EU
U.S. b
w Bz.
2 Bbk, B. Pj U.S. E P A I U.S. W A, Woodrow Wilson Center seminar: Global Dynamicsof Biofuels, W, Fby 22, 2007.
3 A w U S.
Future U.S.
domestic
consumption
will probably be
determined by
currently planned
production capac
and by the expor
potential of count
benefiting from
duty-free access
to the U.S. marke
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States1
Table 3: Biofuels Overview of Brazil, the U.S. and the EU
Brazil U.S. EU
2006/07 2005/06 2005
Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Biodiesel
P 335 97 32 20
Fk S CC, b,
, .
O ,
w,
y, ,
y .
A ( ) 6.4 3.6*C: 5,5
6*S b: 2,2
Fk
( )426 267
*C: 2539.7
*S b: 6
% k
b48% 20%
*C: .6%40%
*S b: 0.6%
Y (/) 66.2 8.4*C: 6.2 *R: 3.4
*S b: 66 *Sw: .7
B
( )7,4 8,547 902 4,458
Py
(/)6,800 3,000
*C: 3 25 *R: 999
*S b: 7 250 *Sw: 833
% b
40% 3.8% 0.60% 2%
I ( ) 2,850 250
Ex ( ) 3,028
C
(US$ /)22 40 5075 448
0% 46% 63%/39% 6.5%
N: 2005 Bz U.S., 2004 E. U.S. Bz
y 2006. U.S. y AVE (2004-2005 ) z
(54 / + 2.5%). EU y AVE (2004-2005 ) z
(9.2 /) z (0.2/).
S: ICONE GEM
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries1
C b y .
I y
b b b
k b y b y
b w
N H (b
4). By b ,
w b b b
w b b x b k
b .
A , b w b
x w
-.
b
b
.
y x.
2.1 Developingcountrieswithapotentialforethanolproduction
2.1.1 Brazil
Ey y b b
Bz , w b
970. A Bz
bw 20 25 b (
). I 2003, Fx F V (FFV) w
k. S
y b . y,
y 80 w
k . I by 202,
46 w b
FFV. Cy 40
( ).
W 7.4 b
2006, Bz w
.
335 b Bz;
jy b
k. Bz
w x.
Table 4: Energy and Environmental Balance of Feedstock for Biofuels
Ethanol Biodiesel
Energy balance*
W b : 2 Sw b: 3.2
C : .5R b: 2.7
Sy b : 3
S : 8.3 P b : 9
Environmentalbalance**
S b : 2.7 Sy b : 2.6
W : .85 R b: .79
S : 0.4 P b: .73
Sw : 0.33 W b: 0.27
N: * y wb y
** GHG q (), q CO2
S: ADEME, E C, Ww I
Biofuels Policies in
Developing Countries2
Today, Flex Fuel
Vehicles represe
more than 80
percent of all
new light vehicle
market sales
in Brazil.
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States1
I 2006, 6.45 w 3 w
, w
Bz b . S
y (S P ). x
k
b w y
(58.8 b
), , , yb (y
6.8 b ). S,
x Bz
by, b w , wx wy x
y S
P : w
M G, G M G
S, P. I Az, x
w k
k
b .
Bz b y,
w k b
. A w 2 yb w b q b 2008,
w b 5 by 203. O
bj
by jb
. x x
b y
k ( b
x) k (y
).
2.1.2 Colombia
Cb bby b S A, Bz.
b
0 b
w 500,000
b. A 5 y b b
w b q
b 2008 . F , 2002
w w x
x ( b, IVA, b).
Eq w
x x. C b
,
. A x
w b.4 I w
977.5 (2004), b by Jy 2006
b ,346.4 .5
Cb ky SA. A k y
Cb w
: (C Az)
(C P). y xy
w y ( 7 /) y
P ( y w
w ).
76
2005, w
244 .6
x Cb
y.
S y
C Vy, w
y, P C.7
y b
Cb, w
y y.8 A
C Vy.
4 Ob A, L z C-b, D bj . 88, Nb 2005, .2 22
5 M M Y E, N S:Hb, J 8 2006.
6 AGROCADENAS, E , b www.../., M 26, 2007.
7 BEAR SEARNS, L A: b b,E Mk Eqy Sy, Db 9, 2006.
8 ASOCANA, I 20052006, .7
The mainconcern regarding
sugarcaneexpansion in
Brazil is not land
availability, buthas to do withlogistics, which
explains why thecurrent expansion
is concentratedin traditional
sugarcane areas.
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
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2.1.3 Thailand
b w
. (200406)
w ,
b MBE , b
E0, 0
b b .
(20072)
. b y (3 /y) by
20 0 y b b
w by 202.
w
x, Bz. I
2 4
, b b
.9 w
, b
x US$0.32 (B 2.75) . F
b ,
b US$45 (B ,800) w
y US$80 (B 3,200). A q,
I 2005.20
, w
y 36.9 y
(0.375 /y). A
b 2006,
y 42.6 y
(.6 /y).
A B P P w b
200 w 3. b by
202 (0 b b).2 I 2007, B5 w
b Bkk
y. By 20, w b x
y. Fy, 202, 0 b w
9 WORLD BANK, P B - , 2005. . 47.
20 UNCAD, A A B Iy T-, 2006. ..
2 PECC, P F Sy Ok 20062207: b, .23
b w. S x b by: 56 ,
4 , 29
j .22 Hw,
b y y.
, y
y w y 2.9
/y (60,000 /y). 23
2.1.4 SouthAfrica
S A W
P Rwb Ey 2003. A
0,000 GW y b
wb y by 203 b .
I 2005, B k w
y y b
. w Nb 2006.
I 4.5 b q
( ) by 203.24
b w
E8 B2 y b.25
q b w
x , z .
30 x b w bj
26 (y x
27 25
).27
j .
22 UNCAD, A A B Iy T, 2006. .9 9.
23 UNCAD, A A B Iy , 2006. .6 9.
24 D O M Ey, D B I
Sy Rb S A, Nb 2006, .9.25 S A G, A F-by Eb B Iy Rb SA, Ob 6, 2006. ..
26 UNCAD, E B Mk: Ry, D I, 2006. .9.
27 USDA-FAS, S A: B A R 2006,G R . SF602, J 8, 2006. . 3.
Thailand is the
worlds second
largest sugar
exporter after
Brazil. It has
annual surpluses
of 2 to 4 million
tons of cassava
and hundreds
of thousands of
tons of molasses
both suitable
for conversion
to ethanol.
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States1
B yb b S A w
US$65/bb.28 Hw, S
A y 4 b
b b
60 w y. B
y
, ,
5 .29
w b j
yb by
wy. S S A yb, b j
w yb , k
y yb
.30
2.1.5 Mexico
y, y b b
Mx. Hw, y q by
Secretara de Energia3 -
. (2007202)
w 42
y, y . I 202, w 5.7 b
( ) b w
j 202
0 y b w b q.
A ,
b.
28 S A G, A F-by Eb B Iy Rb SA, Ob 6, 2006. ..
29 D O M Ey, D BI Sy Rb S A,Nb 2006, .0.
30 USDA-FAS, S A: B A R 2006,G R . SF602, J 8, 2006. . 4.
3 SENER-BID-GZ (), P y Vb U B y B Mx, Mx,Nb 2006.
Cy z b Mx.32 Oy 49.2
w 2006.33 A b
y ,
y
b y. S k
, Mx
b bb by .
2.1.6 Guatemala
I 2003, Lw I D
Pj Rwb Ey w . I
b j x , VA, x
y -
x, x 0 y
.34 Cy
y y y35
2006 w 64 .36 G
8.5 2005
90,000 . k G b
C A
w y (97 /).37
2.1.7 ElSalvador
y
b . My Ey
w y w
bk wb y j. Cy
32 USDA-FAS, Mx: B A R 2006,G R . MX6503, J 26, 2006. . 6
33 RFA, Iy . Ab : ://www../y/, A 4, 2007.
34 IDB, A B G Ey A, 2006..58
35 UNCAD, E B Mk: Ry, D I, 2006. .4.
36 RFA, Iy . Ab : ://www../y/, A 4, 2007.
37 FAO-SA, b ://../.x, M 26, 2007.
South Africa
has surpluses in
corn and sugar
production that, if
used for ethanol
production, couldmeet more than
five percent of its
gasoline demand.
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries1
y b; w, b w b b by L Aby. I
w y b
b bw 80 . My
w b x
w y, w
. R w
b x x.38
I 2005, E S 4.4
y w 8 /
.39 y b CBI40
U.S. k.Hw, U.S.-C A F
A w b
y y y
-x y U.S. A x
qy 30 w 2007.4 S
qy w by 4.9 y
2020.42
2.2 Developingcountrieswithapotential
forbiodieselproduction
2.2.1 Malaysia
A N B Py w
A 2005. B5
(B5 , b
, b b
). b y y, b w
b x .
Cy My b
0 .
y 32 b ,
w y 3.3 b
38 IDB, A B G Ey A, 2006..49.
39 FAO-SA, b ://../.x, M 26, 2007.
40 Cbb B I
4 Hz S U S (200) (R )
42 M w b 55 202.
. My 200 b 2006 (
)43 x
.7 b 2007.44 My
w x ,
3.5 .45 y
y x (y Swk);
w, w
y 57
.46
2.2.2 Indonesia
A 0 b b ( /
) z I; w,
.
0 b b by 200. Cy,
P, y,
B5 w Jk (4 )
b .47
A , jy b
W Jk. x
b I w
3.3 , b -z
x.48 wbI b y w bby b
y,
by w w
b . w
x x . I j
by 2007, b
y 2008 w 3.5 b
, jy b
43 A b PECC MPOB .
44 PECC, P F Sy Ok 20062207: b, 2006, .22.
45 O W A 2006 PSD (2M2007)
46 A b MPOB FAO 2005.
47 USDA-FAS, I A S: B 2006,G R . ID600, My 26, 2006. . 4.
48 PECC, P F Sy Ok 20062207: b, 2006, .2.
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States20
.49
Cy 0 I w 200
.50
49 USDA-FAS, I B: I B k ? 2007, G R . ID7004, Jy 29, 2007. . 2.
50 PECC, P F Sy Ok 20062207: b, 2006, .2.
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries21
My b ( )
b
y ,
b b b
y b
-b . I , b
y b
b w .5
x b x
.
Hw, by
j b w y x
. I , EU
U.S. b b
y y ,
b, b by .
3.1 Tariffs
3.1.1 EUborderprotection
EU k y
by . M F N (MFN) (-z )
0.92/ (63 52 -
q). Vy q
y b
220720 (z ) w y
0.02/ (39 AVE).
S jy w
x k. E
A, Cbb, P (ACP)
, , GSP+53
5 Hw, b b.
52 AVE 20042005 .
53 Gz Sy Pplus (GSP+) b -b .
b C A A, W Bk
E k y-. I
GSP+ b,
GSP y w x
2008. I ,
. F , y
b. D
y GSP- x
E Cy w
75 GSP-
x. GSP- x y EU
GSP.
x Bz
b
x y . I
Mx S
A, w
w EU, y jy y
.
EU b k b
w. MFN y
b 6.5 b
MFN
bw 3.2 5. .
b
w , b y x
9 . O y- EU
k. D x b
EU jy
GSP . D
I My w
x bw z 3. .R, w, y x
w x A, Bz, R,
Uk
bw z 6. .
EU and U.S. Policies Restricting
Current and Potential Biofuels
Exports from Developing Countries
3
The current
national policies
enacted by the
major biofuels
consumers in
the developed
world seriously
reduce the expor
opportunities
for developing
countries.
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries2
y y. I 2004,
y .3
b. 2003 CAP by
, b
b b .
S 2005,
y y.57
R k b
,
y y b
CAP. I 2004, w
.9 b. y w
y. C
b k q
0.3/58. S b
57 T y b (20002002). I EU, b yw b b k - .
58 Ry b y.
b y
y .59
3.2.2 U.S.supportprogramsforethanol
E 2004 by JOBS A, V
E Ex x C (VEEC)
US$0.35/ x b b
. VEEC
by . I w
w , ,
y b k,
. by y
q ,
. I 2006, J C
x x
VEEC w US$ 2,220 y 2006200 , ky
w . I ,
59 K, G. EU N R D S f 2003 CAP R E. S P P:I I N (ICONE) G E M (GEM), S P, J 2006.
Table 5: Tax Exemptions on Biofuels in Selected Countries
Ethanol Biodiesel
United States (US$/) 0.35
European Union (/)
F 0.38 0.33
Gy 0.38 0.38
Iy 0.32 0.4
N 0.5 0.3
S 0.4 0.27
Sw 0.53 0.36
U K 0.33 0.33
N: S Sw x x . Iy, S Sw x
x b.
S: Rbbk (2005), Gy UFOP 2005/2006 (2006)
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States2
x 2.6 / 56.8
y . x x
x
U.S. .
A wy
b y q.
A w - wb b
k w -
. B M L
b
w
( 40 M
50 L).60
C, w k
U.S. , b
. I 2004, b
US$8.3 b, 36 -
w y y,
22 y y
20 x y
. 2002 U.S. F
b , , wb y
b w .
, ,
wb y j
y y . -
b b b j.
G 25
60 Kw, D. B A w ? G b U S, Gb Sb I-, I I Sb D, 2006.
j; 50 j. 2006 b w
23 w
y 2007.6
I EU U.S., b
b
x x, ,
w , .
3.3 Technicalnorms
E C b
w CEN S-z (EN 424) qy
b.62 EU
b 20 /00.
Syb ; ,
b EU w
bby b . b
EU y 2025 .
A . P
,63 w
b w . I ,
b y EU b . Hw, b
w .
6 F US b -, Yb, B.D. B : y , CRS C, RL 33572,U Jy 3, 2007.
62 E b : , y, y, , b, , w , , .
63 C w b .
Corn, which is themain feedstock
used in theU.S. for ethanol
production,
benefits from arange of supportmeasures. In
2004, subsidies tocorn amounted to
US$8.3 billion.
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries2
4.1 Driversthatcouldfosterbiofuelsimportsindevelopedcountries
4.1.1 EuropeanUnion
A x ,
EU w q b ,
k,
6.6 b b by 202.
, EU w
40 b
( 50 EU
b ). EU w
b b b.
I , w
b EU y .
Sb x x y y
xy . Fy,
w
w b b .
A
b b EU.
Hw, b w
b y
by EU b . R
y x by (C,
U.S.) C. B w b
A, R, Uk
( x). L
q y w b
I, My, A, Bz.
EU w b
b
b. j x
bby y. EU I
My, y Bz A
w A, Uk, R.
A , EU w b b
q q 202
bj. S, y , EU w . Hw,
. F, E C w
ACP , b S ,
EU 2006 .
P w bby b
b ,
b
b x EU
y b . S,
EU b w b b w b y
k / b
y b
b y y.
b w
by
x b EU b
. w Sw y ,
x.
y . , b, b
y y xy
; , .
4.1.2 UnitedStates
w
U.S. y y . x
US$2.2 b
y 2006200 , w y
. I , w
k
k w
y . S U.S. xxy 65
k, w
Mx w
(b Mx
y) b w .
Fy, k U.S.
Impact of Biofuels Programs in the U.S.
and the EU on Developing Countries4
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States2
w b 0 b ( S ).
U.S.
x y. I U.S.
, U.S. w bby y
y-
k. Mx,
Cb, CBI . I , w x
U.S. by 202
y
b
. Hw, , U.S. w
Bz b b
y w U.S.
k w bby b
q q k
U.S.
4.2 Limitationsontheexportpotentialof
developingcountries
F y ,
b y b
. E CBI
, Mx, Cb jy y-
U.S. k, ACP ,
, GSP+ b,
W Bk x
EU w z .
x w
k y
.
b b
. F, y
x x
/
y. S, y
b w
k
by .
I k b y y x, y
b b
y k .
Hw,
EU U.S. b
x
. Fy,
b . A ,
k y
w y
.
A b EU,
b b MFN w
b b . I , y
b x jy y-
EU k b
.
x
b b EU
b
y . R
, EU
b by . I , EU
k w
k. w b
b k . Fy, b
q x
EU. S EU
b
b . Sb
k EU w bby
b y w b y.
I y , y
y b
b x
b w
.
For many developing
countries, access to
developed countries
is not a barrier
since they benefit
from preferentialtariffs. Ethanol
produced in CBI
countries, Mexico,
and Colombia enjoys
duty-free access to
the U.S. market, and
ACP countries, least
developed countries,
GSP+ beneficiaries,
and Western Balkan
countries can export
ethanol to the EU
with a zero tariff.
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U.S. and EU Policies on Biouels:
Potential Impacts on Developing Countries2
M w b y x
.
Fy,
b y
y k. Hw, x
Bz, ,
S A by y
EU U.S. D ,
.
b k x
w b
y b k
.
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States2
b -b
y k
x k
x y
b k. E
y bw y k,
w ,
b . M
y-
x w
b (..x
Bz, y
U.S., );
( b
b EU, Bz,
I, My; x
);
k
(z, y ,
b , .). I , b
q x k b y .
W , x
w w
k b ,
b b -
. I , -
w z k k .
Hw, y b
y k
y x y w b
. Some y
y x EU
U.S. b ; w,
k by b. w
by ,
w
b -
w
k , -
, w
k , q b
. w
b w b
by , b
y .
Vb b
b
. w y
w
xy. I ,
x -
U.S. y
b
x b
U.S.,
b b
b (.., y)
0 , w b
w bw b
y
by P B. I y
wk w
b y.
Fy, b
EU
x b
b.
Conclusions
5
To facilitate imports
that will complement
domestic production
and that could
provide some relief
from rising pricesand budgetary
pressure, developed
countries should
consider several
options that will grant
greater access for
biofuels originating in
developing countries
and alleviate
upward pressures
on domestic
feedstock
prices, such as
tariff reduction,
implementation of
tariffs associated
with oil or feedstock
prices, and opening
of a quota based on
national consumption.
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