eu-russia relations: alternative futures sergei medvedev, higher school of economics, moscow
TRANSCRIPT
EU-Russia Relations:Alternative Futures
Sergei Medvedev,
Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Fifteen years of zastoi No evident crisis, but a perpetual stalemate 3 gaps
between EU-Russia interdependence and the actual state of relations
between political rhetoric the level of implementation between ‘strategic partnership’ and the lack of strategic
thinking Zastoi = stagnation, muddling through (a word from
the Brezhnev era) supported by massive energy flows concealed by increased semiotic activity (strategies,
partnerships, summits)
The structural impediment
No mega-incentive of Russian membership of the EU EU political machinery not suited for dealing with non-
acceding “partners” ENP a watered-down derivative of enlargement, “common
spaces” a watered-down version of the ENP Russia not sure about the way to deal with the EU
EU a new political animal, a bureaucratic/technical, rather than strategic way of policy-making
Russia defaults into tried and tested bilateralism The negativist strategy: “no intention to join the EU” as the
main stated strategy… but is it enough?
Building the scenarios
Why? This is a way to fill the third gap (lack of strategic thinking) no intent to forecast, but rather to conceptualize and
problematize EU-Russia relations explore possible options and risks find the points of compatibility/convergence of both
systems How? A need to develop a forecasting instrument that
would suit both Russia and the EU Common denominators: globalization and adaptation Common variable: re-defining the role of the nation-state
GLOBAL TRENDS: Globalization and resistance
KEY VARIABLE: Role of the nation-state
Europeanscenarios
E1
E2
E3
Building the scenarios
Russian scenarios
R1
R2
R3
ER3
ER2
ER1
Globalization and resistance De-Nationalization Integration
EU federalism Homogeneity
Markets, liberalism Americanization
New Economy networks
Crisis of the welfare state Liberal imperialism New World Order
Re-Nationalization Fragmentation
Regionalization, localization
Resistance/Identity State as an anchor of identity Anti-Americanism
Old Economy, oil, resources, hierarchy
State intervention Global terrorism Regional instability
Key variable = Role of the Nation-state
Role of the Nation-State
In the economy (Economic axis X): Liberal/ globalized / private / de-regulated/, or… Statist / Public / Regulated / protectionist
In politics (Political axis Y): Decentralized / networked / confederal, or… Centralized / integrated / unitary
Generic chart
StatistRegulated
LiberalGlobal
Centralized/Integrated
Decentralized/Networked
Economic axis
Poli
tica
l axi
s
Russia’s options
StatistRegulated
LiberalGlobal
Centralized/Integrated
Decentralized/Networked
R1: Authoritarian Modernization
R2: Liberal Modernization
R3: Bureaucratic Capitalism
Russian scenarios
R1: Authoritarian modernization Model: South Korea in the 1960s-1980s
R2: Liberal modernization Model: East Central Europe in the 1990s
R3: Bureaucratic capitalism Model: Mexico, Indonesia
R1: Authoritarian modernization
Political centralization “Administrative vertical”, “managed democracy” Limits on federalism and local autonomy East Asian models: South Korea1960s-70s? Corporatism / re-distribution of resource rent
Liberal economic and social agenda Capital-intensive modernization projects Dismantling the paternalist social system WTO membership, OECD application
Generally pro-Western foreign policy Extended cooperation with the US (terrorism, Greater Middle East?) Friction with EU, CoE, OSCE
R2: Liberal modernization
Political pluralism Resurgence of liberal parties/projects (support by the Kremlin?) Modernization from below, civil society development
Extended federalism and regionalism Cross-border cooperation
Full economic liberalization, de-monopolization Fighting the “Dutch disease” and resource dependence Development of the small and medium business Central European model (Poland, Czech Republic)
Enhanced dialogue with the EU Not just economic interests, but normative affinity and legal
harmonization
R3: Bureaucratic Capitalism
Informal state capitalism Corporations are private but de facto controlled by the state High ownership concentration / monopolies (Gazprom, Rosneft, etc.) Postponement of structural reform / stagnation / corruption Dependence on natural resources/ oil exports: Russia as a petro-state
Authoritarian drift Privileged role for the bureaucratic corporation/security elite One-party rule (like in Japan, Mexico) A unitary territorial structure (appointing governors)
“Cold peace” with the West Opposing the “Color Revolutions” in the CIS
EU options
StatistRegulated
LiberalGlobal
Centralized/Integrated
Decentralized/Networked
E1: Global Actor
E2: Common Market Plus
E3: FortressEurope
EU scenarios
E1: Global actor Political Union (French concept)
E2: Common Market Plus Economic Union Plus (British concept)
E3: Fortress Europe Isolationist view
E1: Global actor Success of constitutional referenda and institutional reform
Moving towards the political union Deepening and widening of the EU (accession of Turkey,
Ukraine, etc.) Liberal economic policy: opening up EU markets to
globalization Consolidated foreign and security policy
Enhanced Neighborhood Policy Global role – out of the area
E2: Common Market Plus
Failure of the Constitution and of institutional reform Weakening of central institutions, re-nationalization
and regionalization Emergence of a “core Europe” of rich nations Proliferation of bilateralism
No political union, “Common Market Plus” Globalization and liberalization of national and
subregional markets Low-profile global role of the EU
E3: Fortress Europe
Powerful external variables /“globalization gone bad”: Global terrorism, WMD, Islamic mobilization Role of the US and/or Russia climate change, catastrophic migration
Enlargement stops at 25 + BG, ROM, CRO Limited institutional reform, with impact on JHA
Securitization of polity, stricter immigration/border control
Economy: protectionism and state intervention Foreign policy: Isolationism, no global commitment
Failure of subregionalism and of neighborhood projects
EU-Russia scenario matrix
Russia
Europe
Liberal Modernization
Authoritarian Modernization
BureaucraticCapitalism
Global Actor Partnership Zastoi Zastoi
Common Market +
Partnership Zastoi Zastoi
Fortress Europe
Cold Peace Cold Peace Cold Peace
EU-Russia scenarios:The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
ER1: Partnership Probability: Low (2)
ER2: Cold Peace Probability: Medium (3)
ER3: Zastoi Probability: High (4)
ER1: Partnership Development of EU-Russia institutions beyond the
traditional neighborhood policy a Special Partner status for Russia? acceptance by Russia of part of the acquis, institutional
adaptation
Full cooperation in the four common spaces Economy: from the Free Trade Area to Common Economic
Space CFSP: Cooperative security with Russia JHA: full cooperation (counterterrorism), visa-free status
for Russia?
ER2: Cold Peace A combination of worst-case scenarios:
deteriorating global conditions: terrorism, WMD, migration global security alert, geopolitics, competition for resources “Fortress Europe” in the EU and/or bureaucratic capitalism
in Russia
EU and Russia increasingly alienated US-Russia cooperation possible, over the head of the EU Russia’s unsuccessful attempts to divide the EU
Raising visa and border barriers failure of cross-border regionalism
Trade disputes, delayed Russian entry into the WTO
ER3: Zastoi
Continuation of present trends, stagnation of EU-Russia relations
Loose institutions, hollow summits, bureaucratic squabbling between EU and Russia
Lack of cohesion, rival visions of Russia in the EU Failure of the PCA follow-up Strategy (after 2007) Bilateralism with Russia (France, Germany, UK)
Of four common spaces, only some cooperation in the First (economy) and Fourth (humanitarian) frictions in internal security (visas, borders, re-admission) competition in foreign policy (rivalry in the CIS: Ukraine,
Moldova, Belarus, South Caucasus)
Negative trends prevail Perpetuation of the current system in Russia
Reproduced in the 2007-08 election cycle This system is tolerated by the West, due to
Russia’s territory / position/ geopolitics of size Oil/resources / geopolitics of energy Security/ geopolitics of terrorism
Uncertainty in Europe Failure of the constitutional referenda / “Orange revolution” in
the EU Europessimism, future of enlargement uncertain Russia not on top of the priority list No instruments, no leverage no cohesion in EU’s Russia-policy
Facilitating EU-Russia Partnership
A liberal modernization scenario in Russia A global vision for the EU A special role for the bilateral relations
Finnish presidency Traditional partnerships (Germany, France)
Externalities to the EU-Russia relations A drop in the oil prices