eu2020 targets and measuring development – … 2010/lautar... · 2. flexicurity and social...

EU2020 TARGETS AND EU2020 TARGETS AND

MEASURING MEASURING

DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT ––

Slovenian approachSlovenian approach

Jana Poljak, mag. Katja Lautar

A. Where do we want to go?

B. Current situation?

C. Recommendations to Slovenia

D. Development planning and EU 2020 targets

E. Targets and indicators

2

A. EU2020 A. EU2020 -- Where do we want to go Where do we want to go

Fiscal

surveillance

Macro-economic

surveillance

Thematic

surveillance

Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines (IG)

EUROPE 2020 FIVE HEADLINE TARGETS

Stability and

Growth Pact

National Reform

Programmes

Stability and Convergence

Programmes

Commission’s Annual Growth Survey

EU annual policy guidance and recommendations

EU flagship initiatives and levers

National level

EU level

3

EU tools in support of Europe 2020 EU tools in support of Europe 2020

Single

market

relaunch

Trade and

external

policies

EU

financial

support

EU levers for growth and jobs

EU flagship initiatives

EU monitoring and guidance

Macro, thematic

and fiscal

surveillance

Annual Growth Survey

Annual

policy

guidance

Innovation

Union (Oct. 2010)

New Skills

and Jobs(Nov. 2010)

Digital

Agenda(May 2010)

Youth

on the Move(Sept. 2010)

New

Industrial

Policy (Oct. 2010)

Platform against

Poverty (Dec. 2010)

Resource

Efficiency(Early 2011)

4

Council of

Ministers

European Commission

European

Parliament

European Council

Annual economic &

social summit

January March AprilFebruary May June July

Submission of National Reform

Programmes (NRPs) & Stability and Convergence

Programmes (SCPs)

Autumn:Peer review at EU level

Autumn:Decisions

at national level

Debate &

orientations

Endorsement of guidance

Finalisation

& adoption of guidance

Member

States

Annual Growth

Survey

Policy guidance including possible

recommendations

Debate &

orientations

EuropeanEuropean economic semester economic semester

5

6

Ambitious reform packages can Ambitious reform packages can

generate significant gainsgenerate significant gains

• GDP could increase by 3.5% in a medium scenario compared with unchanged policies

(Source: Commission Economic Papers 421, Quantifying the potential macroeconomic

effects of the Europe 2020 strategy, stylised scenarios)

• The magnitude of increase depends critically on ambition of reform implementation:

we should be able to raise our average growth rate by about 1/3 over the period

2010-20

• Higher growth goes hand in hand with higher productivity

Key reform areasKey reform areas(from the EPC/EFC report on macro(from the EPC/EFC report on macro--structural bottlenecks)structural bottlenecks)

Bottleneck Policy area Rational for frontloaded action

Fiscal policy and long-term sustainability

Pension reformsDirectly improve long-term sustainability and confidence through higher tax revenues and/orlower public spending in future

CompetitivenessReform of wage bargaining

systems

Contribute to swift recovery through restoring and maintaining of cost competitiveness. In euro area

countries there are added rationale for avoiding imbalances due to monetary union.

Labour utilisation

Reforms of employment protection systems Can accelerate growth by removing impediments to

job creation and is key to ensure that fiscal consolidation does not lead to further increases in unemployment

Incentives to work

Enhancing ALMPs and public

employment services, training

Productivity/total factor productivity

Ensuring sectoral competition and market liberalisation Reduce costs for businesses and contribute to

improving economic activity without burden on public financesImproving business

environment

7

8

B. B. Current situationCurrent situation??

Macroeconomic conditions : Corporate balance sheet adjustment – what should come

next?

Source: Commission Services

Net lending (+) borrowing (-) of institutional sectors

-12

0

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

% of GDP

General government

Households & NPISH

Corporations

Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) total economy

9

Macroeconomic conditions: how can the public Macroeconomic conditions: how can the public

finances be set on a sustainable trajectory?finances be set on a sustainable trajectory?

Change in the public pension/GDP ratio over 2007-2060 in pps

Source: Economic Policy Committee

and Commission services

10

Growth Drivers – Knowledge base

TFP growth contributions

-1

0

1

2

3

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

%

SI SK CZ HU

Source: Commission

services

11

Macroeconomic conditions : Are new, higher value-added

industries taking over?

Manufacturing output through the crisis

0 100

motor vehicles, trailers

electrical equipment

rubber & plastic products

chemicals & chemical products

fabricated metal products

computer, optical products

print. & rep.of recorded media

food products

beverages

leather & related products

paper & paper products

other transport equipment

w ood, products of w ood, cork

oth. n.-metallic mineral pr.

machinery & equipment n.e.c.

w earing apparel

basic metals

furniture

textiles

coke & petroleum products

%

Jan-Jul 2010 compared

to same period 2007

Comparative advantage (goods) vs. RoW

0

0.5

1

1.5

ICT

high-tech

medium-to-high-techmedium-to-low -tech

low -tech

1995

2000

2007

Source:

Commission

services

Growth Drivers – Business environment

12

45th out of 139 countries in WEF Global Competitiveness index

The most problematic factors for doing business

Source: World Economic Forum

13

Growth Drivers - Labour

Source: Commission Services

Employment rate differentials vs. EU27

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

pp

gap

Employment rate gap low-skilled

Employment rate gap 55-64

14

EU

Pro

duct

mark

et

OECD

Areas: sector-specific regulation (eg telecoms &

energy); business environment; regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship

Areas: low innovation capacity

Labour

mark

et

Kno

wle

dg

e &

inno

vation

C. C. Recent policy recommendationsRecent policy recommendations

Areas: specific labour supply measures for older

workers; making work pay

Enhancing flexibility while tackling segmentation; ensuring better alignment of wages & productivity

Increase competition in the service sector and address other weaknesses in the business environment

Promote innovation capacity & increase overall R&D

investment; refocus human capital investment, especially in tertiary education, on higher value-added activities

(in addition to above): Reform pension system

Increase the powers of the Competition Protection Office

Reduce barriers to entrepreneurship and improve innovation policies

Improve governance of state-owned enterprises before eventual privatisation

Improve expenditure efficiency and structural reforms, especially further

pension reform

Increase labour force participation while reducing labour market dualism

Raise overall R&D spending while stimulating private R&D expenditure

Strengthening the technology-oriented component of public R&D outlays

D. WHY CHANGESD. WHY CHANGES

• The economic and financial crisis brought to the process of post-crisis economy

adjustment measures

• State guaranties

• gap between development/strategic objectives and limited public finances,

• need for restructure expenditures according to strategic priorities

(demographic changes, climate change),

• need to improve efficiency and effectiveness of governmental programmes

(policies),

• goals from different policies in many cases unsystematic and are not related to

the policies.

15

16

Multilateral

negotiations in working

groups by development

policies – bottom up

approach

Reports on the efficiency of the

policies and evaluations

Reports on the efficiency of the

policies and evaluationsBudget performance reports Budget performance reports

Vicious circle of indebtedness

17

Role of fiscal policy

• Tax revenues

• Expenditures for goods and

services

• Transfers to households

• Subsidies to businesses

• Debt management

BUDGET PLANNING

18

Roles and responsibilitiesGovernment

/SVREZ

• Fiscal policy

goals

• Strategic

priorities

• Ceiling on

expenditure

(policy level)

• Fiscal policy

goals

• Strategic

priorities

• Ceiling on

expenditure

(policy level)

Ministry of Finance

• Estimates and

calculations

• Scenarios

• Possible

measures

• Management of

budget

preparation

• Estimates and

calculations

• Scenarios

• Possible

measures

• Management of

budget

preparation

Other Ministries

• Sectoral

strategies and

objectives

• Formulation of

policies

• Investment

plans and

measures

• Sectoral

strategies and

objectives

• Formulation of

policies

• Investment

plans and

measures

19

How to reach fiscal consolidation

YES

• Use of fiscal rule

• Programme oriented

budget

• Structural reforms

• Increase efficiency of public

sector

NO

• Linear cutting of budget

lines

• Lump-sum cutting of

current costs

• Funding by sale of assets

• Additional taxes (export ,

import, transactions …)

20

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH

ECONOMIC POLICY

MEASURES

STRUCTURAL

MEASURES

INSTITUTIONAL

ADJUSTMENTS

EXIT STRATEGY

The Concept of the Exit Strategy

21

The Exit Strategy Policy Mix

STRUCTURAL MEASURES:

•PENSION SYSTEM

•HEALTH SYSTEM

•LONG-TERM CARE

INSTITUTIONAL

ADJUSTMENTS:

•CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

•FINANCIAL SUPERVISION

•PUBLIC SERVICES

•COMPETITION

22

Development priorities:

added value and new jobs

1. Fostering entrepreneurship and acquiring and applying knowledge for growth

and development: adequate fund-raising (especially for the growth and

development of enterprises), reform of higher education; improved efficiency of

investment in research and development activities, human resources

development; R&D projects in the field of eco-innovation and new green

technologies

2. Flexicurity and social cohesion: training, education and other forms of acquiring

knowledge and competences, preservation and creation of new jobs;

implementation of innovative projects aimed at including vulnerable groups in

the labour market, intensified integration into programmes and services aimed

at increasing social inclusion; health reform

3. Development-oriented transport and energy infrastructure: railway

infrastructure, improvement of passenger transport infrastructure and efficient

use of energy in transport; single transport model; modernisation of the

electricity transmission network, encouragement of electricity production, as

well as co-production based on renewable energy sources.23

Prioritetni programi vlade in njihovo financiranje*

2008

(expendit

ures)

2009

(expendit

ures)

2010

(plan)

2011

(plan)

2012

(target)

2013

(target)

1: Entrepreneurship and knowledge for growth

% GDP 2,2 2,8 3,2 3,0 3,2 3,2

% expenditure of state budget 9,1 9,8 9,9 9,9 11,2 11,9

% of EU expenditure of state budget 1,2 2,3 3,8 3,5 2,7 3,1

2: Flexicurity and social cohesion

% GDP 6,3 7,6 8,6 7,9 7,8 7,8



3: Transports and energy development

% GDP 1,7 1,7 2,4 2,1 2,1 2,1



SKUPAJ

% GDP 10,2 12,1 14,2 13,1 13,1 13,1



*Calculations SVREZ

7

E. EU2020 and Smart growth: E. EU2020 and Smart growth:

01 Entrepreneurship and competitiveness

• General objectives and policy indicators :

– Encourage growth

– Increase sources of funding to support development and growth of enterprises

KAZALNIK ME IZH.

LETO

IZH.

VREDNOST LETO VREDNOST

BDP na prebivalca v standardih kupne moči (SKM)

(EU-27=100

indeks 2008 90,90 2014 94,90

Produktivnost dela (BDP v standardih kupne moči

(SKM)) na delovno aktivnega prebivalca (EU-27=100)

indeks 2008 84,40 2014 88,40

Delež srednje in visoko tehnološko intenzivnih

proizvodov v celotnem izvozu

% 2008 58,20 2014 61,20

Stopnja razvitosti grozdov mesto,

uvrstitev

2009 42,00 2014 36,00

Produktivnost dela (BDP v standardih kupne moči

(SKM)) na del.aktivnega prebivalca

indeks 2008 84,40 2014 88,40

KAZALNIK ME IZH.

LETO

IZH.


Dostopnost virov tveganega kapitala mesto,

uvrstitev

2009 28,00 2014 28,00

25

– Provide competitive business environment

– Internationalization of Slovenian companies and more FDI in Slovenia

KAZALNIK ME IZH.

LETO

IZH.


Dvig razvitosti poslovnega okolja-okvirni pogoji za

podjetništvo

t 2009 2,85 2014 3,05

Dvig razvitosti poslovnega okolja-podjetništvo je

primerna izbira kariere

% 2009 55,75 2014 60,75

Dvig razvitosti poslovnega okolja-spoštovanje

podjetniškega poklica

% 2009 77,59 2014 82,59

Povečanje naklonjenosti podjetništvu % 2009 47,40 2014 48,00

Dodana vrednost na zaposlenega v MSP % 2005 71,00 2014 76,60

Export Volume Index indeks 2009 173,40 2014 206,00

Domestic market size index indeks 2009 73,00 2014 80,00

Foreign market size index indeks 2009 67,00 2014 74,00

Tržna kapitalizacija delnic glede na BDP % 2008 22,80 2014 35,00

BDP/prebivalca po regijah v indeksu ravni, EU-27 =

100 in

% 2008 33,85 2014 33,85

KAZALNIK ME IZH.

LETO

IZH.


Razmerje med zunanjo trgovino in BDP % 2009 58,00 2014 65,00

Razmerje med zunanjo trgovino in BDP-izvoz % 2009 59,00 2014 70,00

Razmerje med zunanjo trgovino in BDP-uvoz % 2009 57,00 2014 50,00

Stanje vhodnih TNI v BDP % 2009 30,90 2014 37,00

Stanje izhodnih TNI v BDP % 2009 17,20 2014 20,00

26

There are no limits to growth, because there There are no limits to growth, because there

are no limits to human intelligence, are no limits to human intelligence,

imagination and wonderimagination and wonder

Ronald Reagan (1911-2004)

Thank you for your attention.

[email protected], [email protected]

27

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