eugene s. takle iowa state university [email protected] midwest weather working group...

Eugene S. TakleIowa State [email protected]

Midwest Weather Working Group

Indianapolis, IN7 October 2009

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 31

2009 so far: 1

1988: 26


1983: 13 1988:

10

2009 so far: 0


1983: 13 1988:

10

2009 so far: 0

6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years

Ames Data

State-Wide Average Data

Cedar Rapids Data

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

Cedar Rapids Data

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

December-January-February Temperature Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

4.0

3.5


June-July-August Temperature Change


2.5

3.0


December-January-February Precipitation Change


0.0

0.1


June-July-August Precipitation Change


-0.1

0.0


Change in Annual Cloud Cover



Change in Annual Cloud Cover

-1.0

-1.5



Change in Diurnal Temperature Range


0.0

0.3

-0.3

Change in Diurnal Temperature Range


Change in Evaporation



0.2

0.1

Change in Evaporation


Change in Soil Moisture



-5

0

Change in Soil Moisture


*Estimated from IPCC reports

*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

Waxman-Markey Bill Midwest activities relating to a

“national climate service” Question for Midwest Weather Working

Group

TITLE I—CLEAN ENERGY TITLE II—ENERGY EFFICIENCY TITLE III—REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING

POLLUTION TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN

ENERGY ECONOMY TITLE VII—GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION

REDUCTION PROGRAM TITLE VIII—ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS

STANDARDS

TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY Subtitle E—Adapting to Climate Change

PART 1—DOMESTIC ADAPTATION: Subpart A—National Climate Change Adaptation Program

NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION SERVICES NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE

Midwest regional office of the National Weather Service has been exploring climate needs assessment for the Midwest (Doug Kluck)

Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008) Regional Climate Services Planning Meeting

for Agriculture, September 9-10, 2009 – Champaign/Urbana, IL Pilot project (Steve Hilberg, Dev Niyogi, Gene

Takle) on agriculture needs assessment Calendar for weather-driven agriculture decsions

Don’t ask “what climate information do you need and when do you need it?”

Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?”

When (month) are decisions made? What is the lead time related to that decision?

2 hours (weather forecast) 2 days (weather forecast) 2 weeks (ensemble climate simulation) 2 months (ensemble climate simulation) 6 months (ensemble climate simulation) 2 years (ensemble climate simulation)

What decision tools that you currently use can be driven by hourly values of future meteorological or soil variables?

When (month) are these decisions made? What lead time is needed for these weather

conditions?

eugene s. takle iowa state university [email protected] midwest weather working group...

Documents

assessment report

ipcc reports

climate needs assessment

2007a1b emission scenario2080

des moines airport data1983

climate workshop ames

midwest weather

domestic adaptation