EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Man-machine mix and the forecaster's role

Dr. Wilfried Jacobs

Deutscher Wetterdienst

Bildungs- und Tagungszentrum

email: wilfried.jacobs@dwd.de

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Typical role for a forecaster

medium range and short range forecasts• monitoring of model results (e.g., according to conceptual

model or by comparing with corresponding measurements, observations)

• interpretation of model output and statistical products (e.g., MOS-probabilities, EPS) in the light of the monitoring

Nowcasting• model monitoring (model still reliable?)• weather monitoring (significant weather event?)• product monitoring (warnings still correct?)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

MMO (Modified Model Output)

NWP / Statistical output

Check by the forecaster (based upon recent information)

succeeding methods

(e.g., road weather forecasts,

automatic text generation)

MMO (automatic consistency check)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

EPM (Edition Production and Monitoring)

Purpose• issue of weather warnings

– correct

– recent

– adapted to the users' requirement

Technique• interactive and user friendly software

• automatic distribution to individual customers according to standards

• automatic cancellation reminder

• automonitoring

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Automonitoring (automatic alert)

Weather monitoring• Synop (METAR, SPECI)

• Warn-MOS (spatial probabilities)

• KONRAD significant cells

• GRIB (COSMO-EU / GME - forecasts)

Quality monitoring („model minus reality“)• LM / GME (GRIB)

• optimal guidance (point data)

• other products (e.g., road weather forecasts)

• synthetik satellite images (COSMO-EU / COSMO-DE)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Automonitoring „Weather“

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Automonitoring „Quality“

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Internet: Warnings entire Germany (27/07/06, 14:34 MESZ)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Internet: Warnings federal countries (27/07/06, 14:38 MESZ)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Internet: district „Bitburg-Prüm“ (27/07/06, 14:25 MESZ)

( > 30-40 mm / 24 h)

•Locally more than 50 l/m² within 1 hour

•Hail (about 3 cm)

•gusts (up to 45 kt)

•Hints to dangers

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

Objective optimalization (automatically)

Goal: Optimal point forecast (In development)

Automatic combination (based upon objective criteria) • local NWP-forecasts

• observations• remote sensing

Continuous adaptation of this guidance to • recent synoptic observations

• nowcasting products (SAFs, Satellite weather, lightning, radar)

Manually checked point forecasts (base for most products)