euro evm 2013v1a - earnedschedule.com evm 2013v1a.pdf · earned schedule is an extension to earned...

“Schedule is Different”The Measurable NewsMarch, 2003

Walt Lipke

Europe EVM 2013

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Earned Schedule is an extension to Earned ValueManagement. The method provides considerablecapability to project managers for analysis of scheduleperformance. From the time of the public’s first view ofEarned Schedule, its propagation and uptake around theworld has been extraordinary. This presentation will coverthe capabilities and challenges, progressing through thesignificant extensions, to its present status.

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“In physical science the first essential step in the directionof learning any subject is to find principles of numericalreckoning and practicable methods for measuring somequality connected with it. I often say that when you canmeasure what you are speaking about, and express it innumbers, you know something about it; but when youcannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers,your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind; itmay be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcelyin your thoughts advanced to the state of Science,whatever the matter may be.”

- Lord Kelvin

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• Capabilities

• Challenges

• Affirmation

• Resources

• Wrap-Up

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• Reliable indicators – SV(t) & SPI(t)• True performance at completion

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EVM schedule indicators fail for late performing projects

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• Forecasting• Duration & completion date

• Always converges to actual result

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• Prediction• To Complete Schedule Performance Index (TSPI)

• Answers question – “Is completion at (time) achievable?”

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• Critical Path• Comparison of project and CP performance

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• Detail Analysis – Schedule Adherence• Identifies out of sequence performance

• Isolates tasks - constraints/impediments & rework

• Facilitates calculations - EVR & rework forecast, EVeff

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• Detail Analysis – Schedule Adherence• Cost of poor adherence - Rework Forecast

• Managing schedule execution - Schedule Adherence Index

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• Discontinuous performance – stop work & downtime• Accommodates and improves forecasting

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• Schedule Topology• Longest path concept improves forecasts for parallel networks

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• Too much, too soon• Discard EVM schedule indicators

• Emerging practice

• Ridicule• Who are these neophytes?

• Mathematics• Misunderstanding of calculation

• Skepticism & Rigidity• Resistance to change

• Acceptance from EVM community

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“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing itsopponents and making them see the light, but ratherbecause its opponents eventually die, and a newgeneration grows up that is familiar with it.”

- Max Planck

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There is no coordinated effort by ES advocates to speed up this process

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“Great spirits have alwaysencountered violent oppositionfrom mediocre minds.”

- Albert Einstein

• Simple theory

• Initial prototype

• Independent confirmation

• Trials

• Testing

• Usage

• EVM Tools

• Educators/Researchers

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• Simple theory



• Trials

• Testing

• Usage

• EVM Tools


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“The retrospective analysis of ES using my own EVMprojects’ data, … has confirmed with remarkable precisionthe accuracy of the ES concept and ES metrics …whencompared to their historic EVM counterparts.”

- Henderson (2003)

• Simple theory



• Trials

• Testing

• Usage

• EVM Tools


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“The results reveal that the earned schedule methodoutperforms, on the average, all other forecasting methods.”

- Vanhoucke & Vandevoorde (2007)

“This research finds Earned Schedule to be a more timelyand accurate predictor than Earned Value Management.”

- Capt. Kevin Crumrine (2013)

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• Earned Schedule Websitehttp://www.earnedschedule.com/

• Papers, Presentations, Calculators, Terminology

• PMI Practice Standard for Earned Value Management,2nd Edition

• Earned Schedule book (English, Japanese, Portuguese)• Print

• ePub (Nook & iPad)

• Kindle

• PDF

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• Read two articles …to begin• “Schedule is Different”

• “Further Developments in Earned Schedule”

• Scan the Calculators …experiment with them• ES Calculator (v1b & vs1b)

• P-Factor Calculator

• Statistical Forecasting Calculator

• SA Index & Rework Calculator

• Prediction Analysis Calculator

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13Name Country Email

Walt Lipke USA [email protected]

Kym Henderson Australia [email protected]

Mario Vanhoucke Belgium [email protected]

Stephen Vandevoorde [email protected]

Alex Davis UK [email protected]

Robert Van De Velde Canada [email protected]

• ES facilitates considerable capability

• Analysis from EVM measures not believed possible

• Acceptance – should help popularize EVM

• Integrated analysis …finally

• ES has had impact on EVM

• And my life as well as others

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If you haven’t done so already – Give ES a try!

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• Kym Henderson

• Eleanor Haupt /John Singley

• Ray Stratton

• Steve Wake

• Alex Davis / Mick Higgins

• Mario Vanhoucke

• Stephan Vandevoorde

• Robert Van De Velde

• Major John Garrett

• Norm Brown

• The Measurable News

• CrossTalk

• PM World Today /PM World Journal

• IJPM

• CPM/EVM Europe

• PMI (Greg Smith)

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• Kym Henderson

• Eleanor Haupt /John Singley

• Ray Stratton

• Steve Wake

• Alex Davis / Mick Higgins

• Mario Vanhoucke

• Stephan Vandevoorde

• Robert Van De Velde

• Major John Garrett

• Norm Brown

• The Measurable News

• CrossTalk

• PM World Today /PM World Journal

• IJPM

• CPM

• PMI (Greg Smith)

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Iconic rock song, Stairway to Heaven, was initially not well received:“Many critics trashed this song - Lester Bangs described it as ‘a thicketof misbegotten mush,’ and the British music magazine Sounds said itinduced ‘first boredom and then catatonia.’” - www.songfacts.com

It is well known, Stairway to Heaven, is the most requested song onFM radio. …Initial reaction, although important, oftentimes does notdetermine the lasting impression and value.

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euro evm 2013v1a - earnedschedule.com evm 2013v1a.pdf · earned schedule is an extension to earned...

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