euroland and the global financial crisis

Euroland and the global financial crisis

May 2008

IMPORTANT: All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their in-vestment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to request that a copy of the IR be sent to them. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.

Thomas MayerCo-head of Global Economics& Chief European [email protected](+44) 20 7547 2884

Main points

The US real estate market downturn, the associated global financial crisis, and the surge in commodity prices has pushed the probability of a world economic recession to its highest level since 2001.

Neither Europe nor Japan is in a position to fill the gap left by weaker US demand. Moreover, commodity exporting and emerging market countries are likely to offset only part of the effects of the US slowdown. Hence, global growth is likely to fall to its lowest level since 2003.

Euroland is unlikely to de-couple from the US, as the ECB expects. Hence, the ECB in our view is “falling behind the curve”.

2

Transatlantic recession risks: 1. A real estate bubble

Housing prices adjusted for inflation(GDP weighted averages for Euroland)

Source: OECD, DB Global Markets Research3

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Euroland

US

% deviation from trend

Housing markets in the US and Europe: some similarities in valuation developments

Price-to-rent ratio Price-to-income ratio

4

Source: OECD, DB Global Markets Research

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1996:1 1997:4 1999:3 2001:2 2003:1 2004:4 2006:3

USA

euro area

2000=1.0

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1970:1 1975:1 1980:1 1985:1 1990:1 1995:1 2000:1 2005:1

USA

euro area

2000=1.0

Euroland’s key housing markets: Hot, except in Germany

Housing prices adjusted for inflation


5

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07

France

Italy

Spain

Germany

% deviation from trend

Adjustment is under way


6

House prices adjusted for inflation

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07

UShp

EURhp

% yoy

The power of real estate

R2 = 0.6523

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-50 0 50 100 150

house prices (%)

consumption (% 98-06)

ES

IRE

F

I

FIN

NL

D

7Source: ECB, Haver, DB Global Markets Research

The cooling real estate market is likely to exert a drag on construction investment and consumption

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Euroland

Residential housing permits, sa, 2000=100

Swing factor Spain

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

J an-06 J ul-06 J an-07 J ul-07

Euroland Germany*France ItalySpain

Residential construction sector confidence, net % balance of opinion

%

Based on EMU 4 Growth Contribution Contribution

2006 to growth attributable

% p.p. to Spain

%

GDP 2.7 --- 19.0

Private Consumption 5.2 1.1 23.6

Total investment spending

5.3 0.3 24.2

-- Housing investment 3.9 0.2 29.4

-- Other construction investment

5.2 1.1 23.6

Source: Deutsche Bank, Eurostat

8Source: ECB, Haver, DB Global Markets Research

Spain’s share in EMU4 GDP = 14.9%

Transatlantic recession risks: 2. Financial crisis

A stubborn risk premium on banks…

9Source: Bloomberg, DB Global Markets Research

0.000.20

0.400.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.601.80

2.00

J an-2005

J ul-2005

J an-2006

J ul-2006

J an-2007

J ul-2007

J an-2008

US

Euro area

bp "TED spread"

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01/01/2007 01/05/2007 01/09/2007 01/01/2008 01/05/2008

US Basisswap

3mo EURIBOR-EONIA swap

bp

…and credit…



Credit spreads relative to US Treasuries

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08

%

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5%

Agency AAAMuniHigh gradeAgency MBS

15

35

55

75

95

115

135

155

175

20/03/2007 20/07/2007 20/11/2007 20/03/2008

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

investment grade

high yield (rhs)

bpbp Credit default sw ap spreads in Europe

…leading to a tightening of lending standards…

Sources: Fed, ECB, GM Research

11


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

All

Prime

Sub-prime

% FRB senior off icers survey: tightening of mortgage lending standards

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

housing loans

consumer loans

enterprises

%

tighter


…and in Euroland to an increase in bank lending rates

+0.77+0.41+0.25bp+0.38bpFeb 07 – Feb 08

Large corporations

Small corporations

MortgagesConsumer credit

Lending rates on new loans with 1-5 year fixed rates

Sources: ECB, GM Research

12


Hunt for collateral widens Euroland sovereign spreads…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

J un-07

J ul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

J an-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Austria France

Greece Spain

Italy

Source: Bloomberg, DB Global Markets Research13

bp



94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Jan-2007 Apr-2007 Jul-2007 Oct-2007 Jan-2008

Index

122

126

130

134

138

142

IndexBroad TWI: US (ls)

DB's Broad TWI: Euro area (rs)

…while policy divergence is creating exchange rate tensions

Europe as vulnerable to the financial crisis as US

Table 1. A scorecard for countries' vulnerability to the financial crises

Stocks* Score Housing* Score Current

account** Score Household debt***

Score

Equity capital** Score

Total Score

Spain 146.7 7 76.3 8 -9.8 8 **** 8 96.9 4 35

UK 67.7 1 46.4 6 -2.9 6 30.6 7 151.4 8 28 France 97.6 4 67.4 7 -1.3 4 14.0 5 104.0 5 25 US 68.4 2 45.6 4 -5.6 7 25.9 6 115.2 6 25 Canada 110.2 5 46.1 5 1.9 3 5.4 3 128.6 7 23 Italy 84.0 3 37.1 3 -2.0 5 10.5 4 52.6 1 16 J apan 111.4 6 -17.2 1 4.7 2 -2.1 2 95.4 3 14 Germany 176.8 8 9.3 2 6.0 1 -7.2 1 65.4 2 14

India 293.3 2 -2.1 4 147.2 4 10

Brazil 394.7 4 0.8 3 120.5 2 9

Russia 340.9 3 5.9 2 88.6 1 6

China 187.4 1 11.7 1 127.9 3 5

* % change end 2002 to mid-2007 ** 2007 ***Change between 2002 and 2006 ****We did not find comparable household debt ratios for Spain, but available indicators pointed to an increase even greater than in the UK. Source: OECD, Haver, DB Global Markets Research

15

Credit and banking crisis likely to dampen business investment growth

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

Profits (gross operating surplus) (lhs)

Non-financial corprate sector financialbalance (- means net borrower) (rhs)

% yoy % of GDP

Despite rising profits, firms need credit to fund their growth

16Source: Haver, Bloomberg, DB Global Markets Research

Source: Eurostat, Haver, DB Global Markets Research17

Investment has benefited from buoyant export growth

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Real exportsReal investmentReal op.surplus

% yoy

Rise of the euro to slow export growth, reinforcing the dampening effect from tighter credit on business investment

Source: Eurostat, Haver, DB Global Markets Research18

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

exports

reer (rhs)

% yoy % yoy

Export elasticities*Activity Exchange rate

US 1.9 -0.4Euroland 1.1 -0.5* Long-term values (mean lag US=1.9qu., Euroland=1.4qu.

Source: DB Global Markets Research

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

s.t.coeff.

+2 s.e.

-2 s.e.

Recursive eur regressions suggest no major changes in coefficient

Investment growth to be squeezed

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2006 2007 2008 2009

Construction

Equipment

Total investment

Real, % qoq

Forecasts

Source: ECB, Haver, DB Global Markets Research19

Transatlantic recession risk: 3. Rising oil and commodity prices

Great losers (trade balance worsening greater than by 1% of GDP)

Small losers (trade balance worsening less than by 1% of GDP)

Small gainers (trade balance improving by less than by 1% of GDP) Big gainers (trade balance improving by greater than by 1% of GDP) No data

First-round impact on trade balance of the oil price surge since September 2007

Sources: IMF, DB Global Markets Research20

Transatlantic recession risk: 3. Rising oil and commodity prices

Falling terms of trade hurting consumer

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

US

Euroland

J apan

2000=100

Source: Haver, DB Global Markets Research21

Euroland consumption growth has been sluggish

Sluggish consumption growth… …despite a lower savings ratio


2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

consumption

disposable income

% yoy

13.0

13.2

13.4

13.6

13.8

14.0

14.2

14.4

14.6

14.8

15.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

savings ratio%

Employment growth has not helped disposable income growth very much


2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

disposable income

employment (rhs)

% yoy

% yoy

Consumers retrenching

Retail sales plunge as surging food and energy prices tax consumers


-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Retail sales

Food & energy prices (rhs)

% yoy

smoothed

% yoy

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0Retail sales (smoothed)

PCE

consumer confidence (rhs)

% yoy % yoy

No signs of “decoupling” from the US

OECD leading economic indicators pointing down

Source: OECD

25

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Euro area

US

% 6-month annualised change

Euroland not contributing to global rebalancing…

-7

-2

3

8

13

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

exports of goods

imports of goods

% yoy

Imports weakening more than exports


…as past reliance on the US “locomotive” is likely to continue

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0US consumer confidence (conf board)

Euroland GDP, % yoy (rhs)


Fiscal policy is likely to be broadly neutral…

Source: OECD, Haver, DB Global Markets Research28

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

% of GDP

tightening

easingfiscal impulse (= change in cyclically adjusted budget balance)

f 'cast

…while monetary conditions tighten to record levels


Based on our simple MCI we estimate that monetary conditions have tightened by about 120bp since last July. Of this, 50bp are due to the rise in money market rates and 70bp reflect the 7% rise of the trade-weighted euro exchange rate

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5DB Euroland MCI

ECB refi rate (rhs)

MCI base = sample mean

%

The ECB remains hawkish

30Source: ECB, NTC, DB Global Markets Research

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6PMI composite output indexECB rate changes, bps (rhs)

Highest level of P MI for a rate cut

Median level of P MI for a rate cut

level of P MI when rates first cut in 2001

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

Hawkometer (lhs)

PMI composite index (rhs)

hawkish

dovish

Is the ECB too optimistic about growth?

Sources: ECB, Consensus Economics, Deutsche Bank

31

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

Consensus

DB

ECB

2007 2008

Evolution of 2008 GDP growth forecasts since J an'07, %

ECB will probably only reluctantly follow the Fed


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

ECB refi rateFed funds rateBoJ call rate

f'cast%

Credit-sensitive growth to weaken most in 2008-09


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Consumption Government

Investment StocksNet trade GDP

forecast

Contributions to real annual GDP growth, pp

Slower growth likely to reduce inflationary pressures

Source: ECB, OECD, Haver, DB Global Markets Research

Headline inflation boosted by food and energy

Wage inflation remaining contained

34

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

contract wages

output gap (-1y) (rhs)

% yoy %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

HICP

core

% yoyforecast

Conclusion: a cooler world economy…


35

2007 2008F 2009F 2007 2008F 2009FUS 2.2 1.2 1.3 2.9 3.7 2.5J apan 2.0 1.1 1.8 0.0 0.6 0.3Euroland 2.6 1.7 1.1 2.1 3.3 2.1

G7 2.2 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.9 2.0Asia(ex J apan) 9.4 7.5 7.5 4.3 6.3 4.1EMEA 6.7 6.0 6.2 10.5 9.7 7.4Latam 5.4 4.8 4.2 6.8 7.0 7.3

Global 4.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 4.5 3.4

GDP growth, % CPI inflation, %

…and shifting sources of growth


36

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Global GDP

IC ontr.(pp)

EM contr. (pp)

% yoy f'cast

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Thomas Mayer

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The following are additional required disclosures:Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest: DBSI prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage.Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of DBSI, which includes investment banking revenues.Analyst as Officer or Director: DBSI policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage.Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above.Price Chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the DBSI website at http://gm.db.com.

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Appendix

37

38

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euroland and the global financial crisis

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