Europe: One Continent, Different Worlds: Population Scenarios for the 21 51 Century

European Studies of Population VOLUME 7

The book series European Studies of Population (ESPO) aims at disseminating population and family research, with special relevance for Europe. It may analyse past, present andlor future trends, as well as their determinants and consequences. The character of the series is multidisciplinary, including formal demographic analyses, as well as social, economic andlor historical population and family studies. The following types of studies are of primary importance: (a) internationally relevant studies, (b) European comparative studies, (c) innovative theoretical and methodological studies, and (d) policy­relevant scientific studies. The series may include monographs, edited volumes and reference works. The book series is published under the auspices of the European Association for PopUlation Studies (EAPS).

Editorial Board: Robert Cliquet, Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS), Brussels, Belgium Tamas Farag6, Demographic Research Institute (DR!), Budapest, Hungary Jenny Gierveld, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, Nether-

lands Charlotte Hahn, Bundesinstitut flir BevOlkerungsforschung, (BiB), Wiesbaden, Germany Janina J6iwiak, European Association for Population Studies (EAPS) Nico Keilman, Statistics Norway, Oslo, Norway Mirolav Macura, Population Activities Unit, (ECE, United Nations), Geneva, Switzerland Maura Misiti, Istituto di Recerche sulla Popolazione (IRP), Roma, Italy Alain Monnier, lnstitut National d'Etudes Demographiques (INED), Paris, France

Advisory Board: Ines Alberdi (Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain), Herwig Birg (Institut flir Bev6lkerungsforschung, Bielefeld, Germany), Graziella Caselli (Universitk degli studi di Roma "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy), David Coleman (Department of Applied Social Studies and Social Research, Oxford University, United Kingdom), Jack Habib (Brookdate Institute, Jerusalem, Israel), Kalev Katus (Estonian Interuniversity Population Research Centre, Talinn, Estonia), Maire Nf BhrolcMin (Department of Social Statistics, Southampton, United Kingdom), Vita Pruzan (Danish National Institute of Social Research, Copenhagen, Denmark), Serge Scherbov (Population Research Centre, Groningen UniverSity, Netherlands), David Sly (Florida State University, Talla­hassee, USA), Tapani Valkonen (University of Helsinki, Finland), James Vaupel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany).

Gijs Beets Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) P.O. Box 11650 NL - 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands Phone.: +31703565200 Fax.: +3170364 7187 E-mail: beets@nidi.n1

Joan Vrind

Editorial Offices:

Technical Editors:

Fred Deven Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS)

Markiesstraat I B - 1000 Brussels, Belgium

Phone: + 32 2 553 3588 Fax: +3225533419

E-mail: cbgs@wvc.vlaanderen.be

Anita Wouters

Europe: One Continent, Different Worlds Population Scenarios for the 21st Century

edited by

JOOP DE BEER and LEO VAN WISSEN

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V.

Statistics Netherlands

A c.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

ISBN 978-0-7923-5841-1 ISBN 978-94-011-4744-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-4744-6

Printed on acid-free paper

All Rights Reserved © 1999 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1999

No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying. recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.

Table of Contents

Preface .......................................... ix

List of authors .................................... xiii

List of figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. xv

List of tables .................................... xvii

1. Introduction to the Uniformity and Diversity scenarios . . . . . . .. 1

2. Determinants of demographic behaviour ................. 5 2.1. Theoretical framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5 2.2. The socioeconomic dimension ................... 8

2.2.1. Economy ........................... 9 2.2.2. Education.......................... 12 2.2.3. Health............................ 13 2.2.4. The state of technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 15

2.3. The cultural dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 17 2.3.1. Power distance ...................... 18 2.3.2. Conservatism ....................... 20 2.3.3. Gender equality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 22 2.3.4. Individualism ....................... 24 2.3.5. Post-materialism ..................... 25

2.4. Empirical analysis of the determinants . . . . . . . . . . . .. 26 2.4.1. Data description. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 26 2.4.2. Results............................ 27

3. Uniformity and Diversity defined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 33 3.1. Introduction....................... .. . . . . .. 33

vi

3.2. Clustering of the European countries . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 33 3.3. Uniformity and Diversity scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 37

3.3.1. Uniformity versus Diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 37 3.3.2. An operational definition of the

Uniformity scenario .............. . . . .. 40 3.3.3. An operational definition of the

Diversity scenario .................... 42

4. Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for fertility. . . . . . . . . . .. 45 4.1. Introduction.............................. 45 4.2. Differences in fertility trends between

European countries ......................... 46 4.2.1. Northern Europe (Maternalistic cluster) ...... 46 4.2.2. Western Europe (Pragmatic cluster) . . . . . . . .. 47 4.2.3. Southern Europe (Paternalistic cluster) . . . . . .. 48 4.2.4. Central and eastern Europe

(Intermediate and post-totalitarian clusters) .... 49 4.3. Fertility prospects for Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 50 4.4. Fertility scenarios .......................... 52

4.4.1. Method ........................... 52 4.4.2. Uniformity scenario ................... 54 4.4.3. Diversity scenario .................... 56 4.4.4. Fertility differences between the Uniformity

and Diversity scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 58

5. Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for mortality. . . . . . . . . .. 71 5.1. Introduction.............................. 71 5.2. Differences in mortality between European countries ... 72

5.2.1. Northern, western and southern Europe ...... 72 5.2.2. Central and eastern Europe .............. 73 5.2.3. Main differences ..................... 75

5.3. Mortality prospects for Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 75 5.4. Mortality assumptions ....................... 80

5.4.1. Method of projection mortality . . . . . . . . . . .. 80 5.4.2. Uniformity scenario ................... 81 5.4.3. Diversity scenario .................... 83 5.4.4. Differences between the scenarios:

the age-specific mortality patterns of Sweden and Bulgaria .................. 84

vii

6. Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for international migration.. 91 6.1. Introduction.............................. 91 6.2. Backgrounds to differences in international

migration trends in Europe .................... 93 6.2.1. Northern Europe ..................... 93 6.2.2. Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 94 6.2.3. Southern Europe ..................... 95 6.204. Central and Eastern Europe .............. 96

6.3. Migration prospects for Europe ................. 97 6 A. Migration scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 98

604.1. Method ........................... 98 604.2. Uniformity scenario ................... 101 604.3. Diversity scenario .................... 104 6.4.4. Main differences between the Uniformity and

the Diversity scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

7. Population development in Europe in the 2 pt century . . . . . . . . 109 7.1. Introduction.............................. 109 7.2. Population change .......................... 110 7.3. Natural growth versus net migration .............. 115 7 A. Ageing ................................. 121 7.5. Dejuvenation ............................. 129 7.6. The working-age population ................... 134 7.7. Age dependency ratios ....................... 136 7.8. Population developments in the individual clusters ..... 140

7.8.1. Northern Europe or the maternalistic cluster .. , 140 7.8.2. Western Europe or the pragmatic cluster ...... 141 7.8.3. Southern Europe or the paternalistic cluster . . . . 143 7.804. Central Europe or the intermediate cluster ..... 144 7.8.5. Eastern Europe or the post-totalitarian cluster .. 145

7.9. Variability in population growth in the scenarios ...... 146

8. One Europe: how many different worlds in the 21st century? ... 149 8.1. Introduction.............................. 149 8.2. Scenario assumptions ........................ 151 8.3. Results ................................. 153 804. How realistic are the scenarios? ................. 156 8.5. Implications of the scenarios ................... 158

viii

References ....................................... 163

Appendix 1 ...................................... 169 Appendix 2 ...................................... 185

Preface

On the threshold of a new century the organisers of the European Population Conference 1999 (EPC99) in The Hague decided not only to highlight the population trends that Europe is facing today but also the changes in the 21 st

century that are set to shape the future of Europe. They decided to focus on comparative issues, both in time and in space. In order to trace the degree of homogeneity and heterogeneity of European populations over time, converging and diverging population trends that are specific to contemporary and future Europe need to be explored. This is reflected in EPC99's motto: 'European Populations on the threshold of the new millennium; unity in diversity. '

Future demographic developments will be caused by specific economic, social and cultural conditions in Europe, and will, in turn, have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To the extent that demographic trends differ across countries, separate countries may face different social and economic problems. As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic developments at an early stage. On the occasion of EPC99 , two of the organisers, Statistics Netherlands (SN) and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), decided to produce a set of two population scenarios, showing the possible impact of converging and diverging population trends in the next century.

Europe is an interesting continent for social scientists as it has experienced many crucial events over the past decades (e.g. the creation of the European Union and the transition of central and eastern European societies from communism to a market system) that may alter future demographic patterns. Large cultural and economic variations exist, but there is also a growing tendency among European countries to co-operate and integrate. Moreover, demographic developments in many European countries are strikingly similar

x

(see e.g. Harding et al., 1986; Kuijsten, 1996). This raises the question whether convergent or divergent trends will dominate long-term future demographic developments in the countries of Europe. Since there is no unambiguous answer to this question, this book describes two alternative scenarios for Europe's future population.

In the Uniformity scenario, convergent forces are dominant. This will eventually lead to a situation where only marginal economic and cultural differences exist across Europe. Trends in fertility and mortality will converge up to the year 2050, although over-time patterns may differ across countries as a result of their different initial states. Since this scenario assumes that Europe will be economically and culturally homogeneous in the long run, other factors that influence migration become important. Individuals choose to live in the country they prefer and are not bound by their country of birth. In contrast to the Uniformity scenario, a Diversity scenario is constructed where cultural, economic and demographic characteristics remain significantly different across countries.

On the basis of the two sets of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration, the population scenarios project changes in the size and age structure of the population over the next 50 years for 33 European countries. This book describes the specific assumptions underlying the scenarios and presents the main demographic outcomes. The enclosed CD-ROM with the Scenariobrowser includes detailed results.

This book is largely the result of close collaboration between a number of researchers from SN and NIDI. In order to fully reflect the joint character of this endeavour, it would have been necessary to include a long list of authors on the cover of the book. Since this was not feasible, the form of an edited volume was chosen with separate chapters by small groups of authors. The authors are indeed responsible for writing their contribution, but they were also often involved to a certain extent in the realisation of some of the other chapters as well.

The editors gratefully acknowledge the very useful comments on a previous version of the scenarios by David Coleman, Stephane Cotter, Harri Cruijsen, Virginija Eidukiene, Alexander Hanika, Gert Hullen, Dirk Van de Kaa, Nico Keilman, Jean Langers, Luc Lebrun, Miroslav Macura, Grazyna Marciniak, Annie Mesrine, Robin Rich, Chris Shaw, Maria Pia Sorvillo, Michal Tirpak, Boris Vano, and Peteris Zvidrins. Their input has given this project a truly

xi

European dimension. Moreover, the editors owe thanks to many people who contributed in various ways in the course of the project. Erik Beekink, from the NIDI, was responsible for the database EDAT, on which the scenarios are based. Willemien Kneppelhout and Anne Marksman did a thorough job in checking the English language, and Joan Vrind (NIDI) was responsible for the technical editing and layout of the manuscript, which she did within a tight time schedule but with great care. Having said that, the authors remain responsible for the contents of their contributions, and the editors for any remaining errors in the book.

Prof. Dr. J. Gierveld Director, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

Prof. Dr. A.P.J. Abrahamse Director-General, Statistics Netherlands

List of Authors

loop DE BEER

Rob BROEKMAN

Nicole V AN DER GAAG

Wim VAN HOORN

Corina HUISMAN

Evert V AN IMHOFF

Andries DE lONG

Martin MELLENS

Leo V AN WISSEN

Statistics Netherlands

Statistics Netherlands

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

Statistics Netherlands

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

Statistics Netherlands

Statistics Netherlands

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

Statistics Netherlands, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 1M Voorburg Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague

List of Figures

2.1. Conceptual model underlying the scenarios .............. 8 2.2. The factor scores of the European countries . . . . . . . . . . . .. 31 3.1. Countries and clusters in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . " 35 4.1. Total fertility rate, Norway ....................... 60 4.2. Age-specific fertility rates, Norway ................ " 60 4.3. Sum of age-specific fertility rates per age group, Norway. . .. 61 4.4. Total fertility rate, Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 62 4.5. Age-specific fertility rates, Germany ................. 62 4.6. Sum of age-specific fertility rates per age group, Germany ... 63 4.7. Total fertility rate, Spain ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 64 4.8. Age-specific fertility rates, Spain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 64 4.9. Sum of age-specific fertility rates per age group, Spain ..... 65 4.10. Total fertility rate, Czech Republic .................. 66 4.11. Age-specific fertility rates, Czech Republic .. . . . . . . . . . .. 66 4.12. Sum of age-specific fertility rates per age group,

Czech Republic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 67 4.13. Total fertility rate, Russia ........................ 68 4.14. Age-specific fertility rates, Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68 4.15. Sum of age-specific fertility rates per age group, Russia . . . .. 69 5. 1. Life expectancy 1977 ........................... 78 5.2. Mean life expectancy ........................... 82 5.3. Sex difference in life expectancy .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . " 82 5.4. Increase in life expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . " 84 5.5a. Mortality rates of Bulgaria and Sweden, 1995, 1-39 years old . 86 5.5b. Mortality rates of Bulgaria and Sweden, 1995,40-64 years old 86 S.Sc. Mortality rates of Bulgaria and Sweden, 1995, 65-94 years old 86 S.6a. Survivors Bulgaria and Sweden (life table 1995) . . . . . . . . .. 87 5.6b. Survivors in Uniformity scenario (life table 2050) . . . . . . . .. 87 S.6c. Survivors in Diversity scenario (life table 2050) . . . . . . . . .. 87

xvi

5.7. Life expectancy, 1985-2050, Bulgaria and Sweden ........ 88 5.8. Mortality rates, Bulgaria and Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 89 6.1. Net migration age profiles ........................ 100 6.2. Net migration in Sweden ..................... : ... 106 6.3. Net migration in Luxembourg ...................... 106 6.4. Net migration in Italy ........................... 106 6.5. Net migration in Estonia ......................... 107 6.6. Net migration in Bulgaria ......................... 107 7.1. Population, 1996-2050 .......................... 112 7.2. Population (1996 = 100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 7.3. Population growth, 1996-2050 ..................... 114 7.4 Population in Europe 2050 (1996=100) - Uniformity ...... 116 7.5. Population in Europe 2050 (1996=100) - Diversity ........ 117 7.6. Net migration and natural increase, 1996-2050 ........ 118/119 7.7. Population pyramids (proportion of one-year age groups) . 122-127 7.8. Mean age, 1996-2050 ........................... 128 7.9. Population 60 years and over, 1996-2050 .............. 130 7.10. Live born children, 1996-2050 ..................... 132 7.11. Population 0-19 years, 1996-2050 ................... 133 7.12. Population 20-59 years, 1996-2050 .................. 135 7.13. Green pressure ................................ 138 7.14. Grey Pressure ............................ , ... 139 7.15. Old age dependency ratio (60+ /20-59), European countries,

1996 and 2050 Diversity scenario ................... 142

List of Tables

2.1. Statistics of a few key characteristic variables for the countries of Europe ......................... 28

3. 1. Assignment of the countries to the five cultures . . . . . . . . .. 34 4.1. Total fertility rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53 5.1a. Life expectancy at birth, males .................... 76 5.1b. Life expectancy at birth, females ................... 77 6.1. Net migration per thousand of the total population ........ 102