european freight forwarding index - dasp.dk · danske bank markets’ european freight forwarding...

Investment Research

www.danskebank.com/CI

Volume development in July 2014

European Freight Forwarding Index

Philip Levin [email protected] +45 45 13 21 85

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 11 of this report.

2 www.danskebank.com/CI

Main conclusion from survey

Danske Bank Markets’ European Freight Forwarding Index indicates decreased volumes in July compared with two months ago. The overall index of current volumes came in at 43 compared with June’s figure of 55. Nevertheless Participants’ expectations suggest an increase in volumes for the coming two months.

43

55

59

48

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14

Current Expected 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Expected)

Source: Danske Bank Markets


Volumes decreasing in July

• The overall index for current volumes decreased to 43 in July from 55 in June. This indicates a contraction compared with two months ago. The forward index values are 48 for August and 59 for September, which indicate expectations of a an increase in volume.

• The road index of 48 indicates expansion compared with two months ago. The index decreased from June’s figure of 53. Nevertheless, expectations for Road came in at 62 for September (53 for August) which still indicates increasing volumes over the next two months.

• The Seafreight index of 36 in July (57 in June) indicates decreasing volumes compared with two months ago. However, expectations for Seafreight came in at 57 for September, which was higher compared to August’s figure of 45. The index indicates an increase in volumes over the next two months.

• The Airfreight index of 47 increased slightly from June’s reading of 46 but still indicates a drop in volumes compared with two months ago. Expectations for Airfreight increased to 56 for September (50 in August), which implies higher volumes over the next two months.


Segment breakdown of survey

Road Seafreight

62

48

0

20

40

60

80

100

mar-10 feb-11 jan-12 dec-12 nov-13

Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

36

57

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

47

50

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected




Airfreight


Country breakdown of survey

Benelux Denmark

Finland Eastern Europe

42

58

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

77

42

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

21

40

55

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

44

56

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected







Germany

Sweden Norway

UK

31

19

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

73

55

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

50

44

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

57

71

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected







Switzerland Other

58

67

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

33

33

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

Source: Danske Bank Markets Source: Danske Bank Markets


How the survey is conducted

• Our respondents have answered these two questions:

− What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)?

− Lower volumes

− Unchanged volumes

− Higher volumes

− How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)?

− Lower volumes

− Unchanged volumes

− Higher volumes

• Their answers have been translated into an index value which can vary between 0 and 100, with values above 50 indicating expansion among participating companies.


Segment breakdown for participants

Road38%

Seafreight31%

Airfreight13%

Other18%



Country breakdown for participants

Benelux7%

Denmark18%

Eastern Europe12%

Finland9%Germany

11%

Norway7%

Sweden9%

Switzerland5%

UK14%

Other8%



Disclosure

This presentation has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The authors of the presentation are Erik Bergöö and Philip Levin, Analysts.

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