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Investment Research

www.danskebank.com/CI

Volume development in February 2014

European Freight Forwarding Index

Philip [email protected]+45 26 19 26 17

Erik Bergöö[email protected]+45 45 12 80 36

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 11 of this report.

Main conclusion from survey

Danske Bank Markets� European Freight Forwarding Index indicates increased volumes in February compared with two months ago. The overall index of current volumes came in at 53 compared with January�s figure of 51. Participants� expectations suggest increasing volumes in the coming two months.

80

2www.danskebank.com/CI

51

53

6967

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14

Current Expected 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Expected)

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Slight increase in volumes

• The overall index for current volumes in February of 53 (51 in January) shows slightly increased volumes compared with two months ago. The forward index values are now at 69 for March and 67 for April, which indicate expectations of increasing volumes.

• The road index of 51 indicates that current volumes are unchanged from two months ago. The index is unchanged from January�s figure of 51. Expectations for Road came in at 61 for April which is lower than 69 for March. The forward index indicates expanding volumes over the next two months.


• The Airfreight index of 63 indicates increasing volumes compared with two months ago. The index increased from January�s reading of 56. Expectations for Airfreight is 69 for April (69 in March) indicating higher volumes over the next two months.

• The Seafreight index of 50 indicates unchanged volumes compared with two months ago. The index for January was also 50. Expectations for Seafreight for April came in at 70, which was higher compared to March�s figure of 66. The index indicates higher volumes over the next two months.

Segment breakdown of survey

Road Seafreight

61

51

20

40

60

80

100

Ind

ex V

alu

e 50

70

20

40

60

80

100

Ind

ex V

alu

e


0mar-10 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13

Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

63

69

0

20

40

60

80

100

mar-10 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13

Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected




Airfreight

Country breakdown of survey

Benelux Denmark

67

83

20

40

60

80

100

Ind

ex V

alu

e

67

60

20

40

60

80

100

Ind

ex V

alu

e


FinlandEastern Europe


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

21

50

72

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

50

50

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected






Germany UK

38

63

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ind

ex V

alu

e

82

50

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ind

ex V

alu

e


SwedenNorway


Current Expected


Current Expected

56

56

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

64

71

0

20

40

60

80

100


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected






Switzerland Other

75

58

20

40

60

80

100

Ind

ex V

alu

e

58

42

20

40

60

80

100

Ind

ex V

alu

e


0

20


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

0

20


Ind

ex V

alu

e

Current Expected

Source: Danske Bank Markets Source: Danske Bank Markets

How the survey is conducted

• Our respondents have answered these two questions:

− What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)?

− Lower volumes

− Unchanged volumes

− Higher volumes

− How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal


− How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)?

− Lower volumes

− Unchanged volumes

− Higher volumes

• Their answers have been translated into an index value which can vary between 0 and 100, with values above 50 indicating expansion among participating companies.

Segment breakdown for participants

Road38%

Other18%


38%

Seafreight31%

Airfreight13%


Country breakdown for participants

Benelux7%

Denmark18%

UK14%

Other8%


Eastern Europe12%

Finland9%Germany

11%

Norway7%

Sweden9%

Switzerland5%


DisclosureThis presentation has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (�Danske Bank�). The authors of the presentation are Erik Bergöö and Philip Levin, Analysts.

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