European Political Science Association

2nd Annual Conference

PROGRAMME

Auferstehungskirche und Neue Mälzerei

Berlin, June 21-23 2012

List of accepted papers (in the order of the submitters’ family names) Marta Åerkowska-Balas Do spatial models of voting explain voter turnout? - comparative analysis. Luís Aguiar-Conraria, Pedro C. Magalhães and Maria Joana Soares Wavelets in Politics: moving beyond bivariate analysis Faisal Z. Ahmed A Political Economy of Remittances and Government Spending Faisal Z. Ahmed Brain Drain and Government Size Julian Aichholzer Changing survey mode in a panel study: Who exhibits different response styles? Despina Alexiadou Old and New guard of Social-democrats and Employment Policy Despina Alexiadou Ideologues, Partisans and Bureaucrats: the politics of cabinet decision-making Elin Haugsgjerd Allern, Carina Bischoff and Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson Political Control or Bureaucratic Autonomy? A Comparison of Public Appointments in Denmark, Iceland and Norway Mirjam Allik Welfare state, within gender differences and women's political representation Sonia Alonso, Laura Cabeza and Braulio Gómez Political Devolution: the Never-Ending Story? James Alt, David Dreyer Lassen and Joachim Wehner Politics, Economics, and Fiscal Gimmicks in OECD Countries, 1990-2010 Enriqueta Aragones, Micael Castanheira and Marco Giani Electoral Competition through Issue Selection Enriquetta Aragones and Dimitrios Xefteris Candidate Quality in Downsian Model with a Continuous Policy Space Cristina Ares Castro-Conde The Europeanization of local governance in Spain

Luz Marina Arias and Luis de la Calle Why Do States Decentralize? The Impact of Colonial Legacies and Independence-War Dynamics in Post-Independence Spanish America Luz Marina Arias Who Benefits from Redistribution? Fiscal Centralization and Government Expenditure in Spanish America Anna Ramon and Marina Carrión Looking at policy implementation through social networks Christian Arnold, Gerard van den Berg and Bettina Drepper Inefficiencies from Strategic Behaviour in International Cooperation - Evidence from the Southern Common Market Raffaele Asquer The mixed effect of government intervention: Regulation, public spending and corruption Ece Ozlem Atikcan The Puzzle of Double European Union Referenda Lucio Baccaro and Jonas Pontusson Do Centralized Collective Bargaining Institutions Really Reduce Inequality? Joonbum Bae The Effects of Engagement on Public Perceptions of a Rival State: Evidence From South Korea's ‘Sunshine Policy' 1998-2007 Olena Bagno-Moldavsky Mobilizing minorities: The individual-structural nexus of mobilization for protest Olena Bagno-Moldavsky Political newborns: the open model of socialization tested on immigrant populations in Germany, Israel and Ukraine Stefanie Bailer,Peter Meissner , Peter Selb and Tamaki Ohmura Parliamentary Career Types and their influence on legislative positions and attitudes Pablo Barberá A New Measure of Party Identification in Twitter. Evidence from Spain. Pablo Barberá When Duverger Becomes Autocratic: Electoral Systems in Non-Democratic Regimes, 1950-2008

Mauro Barisione Ideological Proximity and Voting Preferences in the European Electoral Cycle (1989-2009) Lucy Barnes Are preferences over taxation like preferences over redistribution? Preferences over progressivity, tax structures and the welfare state in advanced industrial countries Lucy Barnes Political fragmentation and fiscal adaptation in the Great Recession Monika Bartkowska Patterns of Representation -- Do Eastern and Western Europe Differ? Resat Bayer Ties that matter? Diplomatic Exchange Data from 1816 to 2010 Bernd Beber, Philip Roessler, and Alexandra Scacco Who Supports Partition and Why? New Survey Evidence from Sudan Bernd Beber, Philip Roessler, and Alexandra Scacco Identity in Partition: New Survey Evidence from Sudan Michael Becher Presidents, prime ministers and policy responsiveness Elif Erisen Who Wants to Bail Out Other Countries and Why? Joachim Behnke The new German Electoral System and its Possible Consequences Kenneth Benoit and Alexander Herzog Intra-Party Conflict Over Fiscal Austerity Measures Kenneth Benoit, Daniel Schwarz and Denise Traber The Sincerity of Political Speech in Parliamentary Systems: A Comparison of Ideal Points Scaling Using Legislative Speech and Roll Call Voting Pablo Beramendi and David Rueda The Never Ending Turn: History, Institutions and Capitalism Daniel Berger Do Chiefs Matter? Village leadership and harvests since 1982

Patrick Bernhagen and Thomas Bräuninger Lobbying, Information Asymmetry, and Groups' Influence over Public Policy Patrick Bernhagen, Neil J. Mitchell and Marianne Thissen-Smits Corporate Citizens and the UN Global Compact: Explaining Cross-National Variations in Turnout Anthony Bertelli Bureaucratic Perceptions of Discretion in the Separation of Powers, 1998-2004 Shaun Bevan and Peter John Policy representation and Prime Minister's Questions: institutional rules and party politics in the United Kingdom Aude Bicquelet Improving Robustness in Qualitative and Quantitative Content Analysis: A three stage model. Jan Biesenbender Nash revisited: Bargaining Power at EU Intergovernmental Conferences Mayling Birney Objective-Maximizing Authoritarianism: Evidence from China David Blagden and Anand Menon Threat Perceptions, the Deployability Challenge, and the Enduring Relevance of Geopolitics: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation of Variance in European Strategic Postures Agnes Blome The impact of electoral demand and party competition on policy change. Family policy reforms in Germany and Italy Jack Blumenau Agenda Control in the European Parliament Zsolt Boda and Gerg Medve-Bálint Institutional trust in Central and Eastern European countries: Is it different from Western Europe? Cristina Bodea Natural resources, weak state and civil war: Can rents help coup prone regimes? Cristina Bodea and Masaaki Higashijima Central bank independence, fiscal policy and political institutions

Heidrun Bohnet Concentrated refugee settlements and conflict Damien Bol, Jean-Benoit Pilet and Pedro Riera Sagrera Addressing Systematic Failure or Following Fads? An Event-History Analysis of the Diffusion of Limited Proportional Representation across Europe Damien Bol Electoral Competition through Issue Selection Nicole Bolleyer, and Caitlin Milazzo Assessing Party System Change: Patterns of Party Formation and Decline in Post-MMP New Zealand Nicole Bolleyer and Evelyn Bytzek New Parties in Old Party Systems: Party Sustainability and Decline in 17 Democracies Thomas Bräuninger, Martin Brunner and Thomas Däubler Personal Vote-Seeking in Flexible List Systems: Do MPs Gain Preference Votes through Bill Initiation? Jens Brandenburg and Caroline Wittig Constitutional Courts as Veto Players in Parliamentary Democracies: A Dynamic Bargaining Game Noelle Brigden A Tale of Two Migrant Hometowns: The Political Economy of Human Smuggling and Violence against Migrants Noelle Brigden Stateless Smuggling: Violence Along Unauthorized Migratory Routes through Mexico Klaus Broesamle Misery as a stepping stone: How violent conflicts and natural disasters accelerate diplomats' careers Sarah Brooks and Marcus Kurtz Endogenous Natural Resource Endowments and the International Diffusion: Rethinking the'Curse' of Natural Resources Julie Browne International War and Domestic Peace: A Model of Domestic Terrorism and Transnational War Timothy Frye, Ora John Reuter, Noah Buckley and Guzel Garifullina

The Political Economy of Russian Gubernatorial Election and Appointment Peter Buisseret Parliamentarism or Presidentialism? Adriana Bunea Who asks what, when and how? Explaining interest groups' policy preferences in the EU policymaking. Jonas Bunte Why do some developing countries borrow from China, while others do not? Diana Elena Burlacu When Does the Circle Break? Good Governance vs. Support for the Incumbent Isabel Camisão The importance of timely political leadership in times of crisis: the EU case Sean Carey and Matthew Lebo The effects of European integration on mediating the relationship between the economy and voting in Britain Agustin Casas Strategic campaigning Nestor Castaneda Bargaining Structure, Lobbying, and Fiscal Governance Graziella Castro (Re)Thinking Public Opinion and Democracy Andrea Ceron The Politics of Fission: Analysis of Faction Breakaways among Italian Parties (1946-2010) Seo-Young Cho Is Prostitution demand-driven? - Evidence from human trafficking in Germany Frederick J. Boehmke, Olga V. Chyzh and Cameron G. Thies An Approach to Modeling Endogeneity between Network Position and Its Effect. Iulia Cioroianu and Joshua Tucker Partisanship and Voter Perceptions of Party Positions: Evidence from Bulgaria Alexandra Cirone

Eurocrats, Technocrats, and Politicians: Strategic Lobbying Ioana Ciucanu In Pursuit of Performance Assessment in Higher Education: between Rankings and Institutional Diversity Michael Colaresi Embedded Conflict: Understanding the Relationship Between Civil and International Competition Without Contradictory Assumptions Jeff Colgan Oil, Domestic Conflict, and Opportunities for Democratization Jeff Colgan The Emperor Has No Clothes: The Limits of OPEC in the Oil Market Till Cordes Sovereign Ratings and Economic Liberalisation Ed Coughlan Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1997-2010 Michael Courtney Looking a Gift Horse in the Mouth - A Multi-Method Analysis of Irish MPs Attitudes to the EU and the Bailout Christophe Crombez and Bjørn Høyland The Annual Budgetary Procedure in the European Union and the Implications of the Treaty of Lisbon James P. Cross Legislative transparency and censorship in the Council of Ministers of the European Union Luigi Curini Strategic valence competition in a multiparty system. A spatial application to the Italian case from 1946 to 2008 Tanja Dannwolf Enforcing Transposition with the Help of the Public. A Study of the European Commission's Decisions in the Infringement Procedure. Thibault Darcillon Political Partisanship and Financial Reforms in Advanced Countries (1970-2009)

Thomas Däubler, Marc Debus and Jochen Müller Battle over bases: German military reform between partisan interests and economic constraints Ursula Daxecker All Quiet on Election Day: International Election Observation and Incentives for Pre-Election Violence Ignazio De Ferrari Party and Executive Evaluations across Political Systems: A Multilevel-Model Approach Luis de la Calle and Ignazio Sanchez-Cuenca Fighting the War in Two Fronts: Shining Path and the Peruvian Civil War, 1980-1995. Leandro de Magalhaes Incumbency Advantage in Brazilian Mayoral Elections: A Regression Discontinuity Design Catherine E. de Vries and Sara B. Hobolt Do Voters Blame Governments for Cuts in Social Spending? Evidence from a Natural Experiment Torun Dewan and Francesco Squintani Party Factions and Platform Design: An Information Aggregation Approach Eric Dickson Struggles Over Symbols and Endogenous Group Norms Eric Dickson, Sanford Gordon and Greg Huber Legitimacy and Enforcement: A Public Goods Experiment Simone Dietrich and Joseph Wright Foreign Aid and Political Development in Africa Jørgen Bølstad and Elias Dinas Not Just the Closest Party: Reconsidering the Directional Model of Voting Elias Dinas and Florian Foos The downstream effects of Federalism: Electoral performance and participation in state legislatures Peter Thisted Dinesen and Kim Mannemar Sønderskov Ethnic diversity of the micro-context and generalized trust: Evidence from Denmark Oliver Dlabac Legitimacy of Liberal and Radical Democracies. A Comparative Analysis of the Swiss Cantons

Barbara Dluhosch and Daniel Horgos (When) Does Tit-for-Tat Diplomacy in Trade Policy Pay Off? Helder do Vale On the Shared Merits of Federalism and Democracy Karsten Donnay, Dirk Helbing, Dan Miodownik and Ravi Bhavnani Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Violence in Jerusalem Holger Döring and Philip Manow Electoral rules and the party composition of governments: Why are there social democratic and liberal welfare states? Holger Döring and Sebastian Jäckle Office alternation in parliamentary democracies: Cabinets, parties and prime ministers compared Raymond Duch, Ulrik Nielsen and Jean-Robert Tyran Does shared responsibility breed unfairness? Dimitri Landa and Dominik Duell Social Identification and the Nature of Electoral Representation: A Laboratory Experiment Leonardo Baccini, Andreas Dür and Manfred Elsig Flexibility in trade agreements: Evidence from tariff schedules Gemma Mateo and Andreas Dür Inside versus Outside Lobbying: Interest Group Strategies in the EU and Its Member States Patrick Dunleavy and Christopher Dunleavy THE FIELD OF 'POWER', Thomas Duttle Determinants of differentiated integration across the EU member states: A test of liberal-intergovernmentalist hypotheses Matthias Ecker-Ehrhardt Why Parties Politicize International Governance: On Globalization Backlash and Authority Contestation Jappe Eckhardt Collective Action of Import-dependent Firms in the Making of EU Trade Policy Asif Efrat

Designing International Agreements: Evidence from the International Regulation of Small Arms Asif Efrat Preventing Plunder: The United States and UNESCO's Efforts against Looting of Antiquities Andrew Eggers Polarization and the Electoral Control of Politicians: Evidence from the UK Expenses Scandal Johan A. Elkink and Alexander Baturo Auctoritas or Potestas? Personal and Institutional Effects of Individual Political Influence Walter Enders and Gary A. Hoover The Nonlinear Relationship Between Terrorism and Poverty Isabelle Engeli and Andrew Appleton Negotiating Biotechnology Regulation: Interests, Expertise, and Policy Isabelle Engeli, Francesca Gains and Claire Annesley Turning words into action: Gendering policy outcomes in Western Europe Benjamin G. Engst and Christoph Hönnige Reaching the Mountains Peak: Judicialization and its limits in France Robert S. Erikson and Yair Ghitza Setting the Agenda Setter Cengiz Erisen and Evren Celik Wiltse Democratic Stability in Divided Societies: The Role of Political Institutions Abel Escribà-Folch and Joseph Wright Do Human Rights Prosecutions Deter Dictators from Leaving Power? Theofanis Exadaktylos and Nikolaos Zahariadis Policy Implementation and Political Trust: Greece in the Age of Austerity Lawrence Ezrow and Tim Hellwig Globalization and Mean Voter Representation in Established Democracies Thorsten Faas How to Measure Voting Intentions in Times of Growing Uncertainty and Volatility?: A Comparison of Feeling Thermometers, Propensities to Vote and Yet Another New Instrument François Facchine Ideological crisis and Electoral Volatility in France (1879 - 2011)

Albert Falcó-Gimeno The Allocation of Regional Cabinet Ministries under Decentralization David Farrell Assessing the impact of deliberation and information: an experiment in deliberative democracy Robert Elgie and Christine Fauvelle-Aymar Economic voting under semi-presidentialism Zoltán Fazekas Personality traits and attitudes towards coalition formation and government Zoltán Fazekas Everything is Important, so Nothing is Extreme: Individual Differences in Extreme Political Attitude Formation Jorge Fernandes Power sharing within the legislature: how and why parties fight for legislative'mega-seats' in European parliamentary democracies Jose Fernandez-Albertos, Alexander Kuo and Laia Balcells Globalization, Economic Crisis and Policy Preferences José Fernández-Albertos and Victor Lapuente Democratization, Social-democracy, and Universalistic Policies Xavier Fernández-i-Marín Methods for Assessing Diffusion of Institutions on a Comparative Perspective Pablo Barbera-Aranguena, Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez and Gonzalo Rivero-Rodriguez Not all corruption scandals are equally punished in elections. Evidence from Spanish municipalities, 2003-2011 Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez Platform Choice by Vote-Maximizing Parties with Naïve and Non Naïve Voters: A Dynamic Computational Model Devin Michele Finn Civilian Support for Maoist Insurgencies in India and Peru: Participation in Mainstream Politics and Violent Revolution Jon H. Fiva, Olle Folke and Rune Sørensen Political Representation and Fiscal Policy: A Casual or Causal Relationship?

Hanne Fjelde Economic shocks and Civil War Violence in Africa Florian Foos Heterogeneity, voting and abstention in the Two Americas: How perceptions of growing income inequality influence the turnout decision David Fortunato and Akitaka Matsuo Analyzing Roll Call Classification Errors David Fortunato and Randolph T. Stevenson What do Voters Need to Know and What do we Measure? Patrick Fournier, Fred Cutler, Stuart Soroka and Dietlind Stolle Which voters are influenced by electoral campaigns? Sean Fox and Kristian Hoelscher From War to Social Violence? An exploration of the changing nature of violence in developing regions Sean Fox The Political Economy of Slums in Africa: Theory and Evidence from an Interdisciplinary Study Fabio Franchino and Luigi Curini Priors, belief updating and attitudes to nuclear power risk Michael Franke State intervention in times of the global economic crisis Robert J. Franzese Jr., Jude C. Hays, and Lena M. Schaffer Estimation & Interpretation of Spatiotemporal Dynamics in Binary Outcomes Ronny Freier and Florian Ade When can we trust population thresholds in regression discontinuity designs? - An analysis of the effect of legislative size on fiscal spending Johannes Freudenreich Explaining Cabinet Types in Latin America Tina Freyburg Cooperating for Democracy? The Democratization Potential of Transgovernmental Networks Tina Freyburg

Building-up Democracies rather than Breaking-down Autocracies: A Time-sensitive Approach to EU Democracy Promotion David Fritz The Media as a Political Institution and its Impact on Political Decision-Making Susan Fuchs and Alexander Katsaitis Not All Conflict is in the Council: Intra- and Inter-institutional Variation in EU Perspectives on the Eurozone Debt Crisis Michael Fürstenberg "Fighting Abroad" - Extraterritorial Violence of Non-State Actors Elizabeth Galleguillos Policy change on the Swiss long-term care system: the case of the Health insurance Law Erik Gartzke Dissatisfied States Erik Gartzke Contracts Between Friends?: Alliances, Reputation, and International Politics Katjana Gattermann European political parties in the media: What kind of representation(s)? Katjana Gattermann Winner or ignoramus? The European Parliament's incentives for inter-parliamentary co-operation Federica Genovese The international climate change negotiations unpacked: exploring a new dataset Anand Menon Plus ça Change: Security Defence Policy as 'High Politics' Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, David Doherty, Conor M. Dowling and Seth J. Hill Do Perceptions of Ballot Secrecy Influence Turnout? Results from a Field Experiment Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, David Doherty and Conor M. Dowling Social Judgments and Political Participation: Estimating the Consequences of Social Rewards and Sanctions for Voting Zuzana Murdoch and Benny Geys

Instrumental Calculation, Cognitive Role-Playing, or Both? Self-Perceptions of Seconded National Experts in the European Commission Benny Geys and Jan Vermeir Party Cues in Elections under Multilevel Governance: Theory and Evidence from US States Andrei Gheorghia Leader Effects and Voter Characteristics in Post-Communist Polities Daniela Giannetti, Aldo Di Virgilio and Luca Pinto Patterns of party switching in the Italian Chamber of Deputies 2008-2011 Heiko Giebler Elections in multi-layered systems: The impact of relational salience on individual electoral behaviour Nathalie Giger and Heike Kluever Focusing events and policy change: The aftermath of Fukushima Martial Foucault and Fabrizio Gilardi The Determinants of Policy Punctuations Fabrizio Gilardi The Effects of Women's Political Representation Miguel Glatzer The Euro Crisis: External Actors, Budgetary Politics and Fundamental Reform in Southern Europe Achim Goerres and Stefanie Walter Presents to Voters or Fat Cats? Explaining Voter Reactions to Policy Responses towards the Global Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008/9 Stefan Goetze Principles and Implications of a Behavioral Theory of Delegation Anita Gohdes Rebels and Repertoires: Examining strategies of violence against civilians in civil war Roman Goldbach Successful Actors and Process-dynamics in Transnational Regulatory Regimes. A Political-economic Basel II Analysis Matt Golder, David Siegel, and Ben Gaskins

Religious Participation and Economic Conservatism Sona N. Golder and Garrett Glasgow A New Approach to Studying the Likelihood of Parties Joining Governments Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Dimitri Semenovich and Arcot Sowmya Forecasting Political Instability and Mass Killing: A two-stage approach Raul Gomez All that you can(not) leave behind: How vote-switching evolves over the life-course. Tom Goodfellow Taming the Boda-Bodas: State Effectiveness and Urban Informal Transport in Africa Lucy M. Goodhart Becoming Red and Blue: The Economic Foundations of Political Diversity across American States Sanford C. Gordon and Dimitri Landa Polarization and Cross-Cutting Cleavages Maciej Gorecki and Paula Kukolowicz Gender and Candidates' Electoral Fortunes in Proportional Representation Systems: Evidence from Poland Michel Goyer Institutional Diversity and ethnic Discrimination: The Case of Second/Third Generation Muslims in France Cassandra Grafström Endogenous Elections and the Economic Vote: Does Choosing Election Timing Actually Bolster Incumbent Electoral Prospects? Peter Grand and Guido Tiemann Determinants of Voter Turnout in EP and National Elections Julia Gray, Rene Lindstaedt and Jonathan Slapin The Countervailing Effects of Membership Growth in International Organizations Jane Green and Will Jennings Governing Party Agendas, Valence and Electoral Success: Policy Reputations as Assets and Liabilities Marco Meyer, Robert Greszki and Harald Schoen Quick and dirty? Speeding in web surveys of online-panelists and freshly recruited respondents

Robert Greszki and Zoltán Juhász The Influence of Mode Effects on the Adjustment of Data Generated from Non-Probability Online Access Panels Theocharis N. Grigoriadis Religious Origins of Democracies and Dictatorships Sonja Grimm Elites in transition after war: a neglected dimension Guy Grossman Do leader selection rules have an impact in community associations? Evidence from Uganda Simone Günther Bargaining Strategies in WTO Negotiations Simona Gurbo and Ilga Kreituse Politics and the Pulpit: Political Behaviour of Clergy in Latvia Christine Gutekunst and Kaj Thomsson Coalition Formation with Heterogeneous Agents in International Public Goods Negotiations Frank M. Häge Coalition Building Dynamics in the Council of the European Union Jens Hainmueller and Chad Hazlett Kernel Regularized Least Squares: Moving Beyond Linearity and Additivity without Sacrificing Interpretability Mark Hallerberg Fiscal Federalism in the European Union and in the US During Times of Crisis Bob Hancke Labour unions, wages and monetary integration in continental Europe Jens Hainmueller and Dominik Hangartner Does Direct Democracy Hurt Immigrant Minorities? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Naturalization Decisions in Switzerland Vibeke Woien Hansen Determinants of decision making speed in the EU Martin Ejnar Hansen

Common Ideas or National Exceptionalism? Comparing Democratization through Constituent Assemblies in 1848-49 Martin Ejnar Hansen and Robert Klemmensen Institutional Influences on Government Policy Positions Niklas Harder and Gerald Schneider Economic Shocks and Intra-State Conflict: A Disaggregated Study of Somalia Philipp Harfst The Consequences of Electoral System Changes in Central and Eastern European Democracies: Analysing the Effects of Institutional Change. Jessica Fortin and Philipp Harfst Do Different Degrees of Electoral Integrity Affect Satisfaction with Democracy and Efficacy? Miriam Hartlapp Position Formation in the EU Commission: Theorizing internal dynamics Barry Hashimoto and Stefan Priebe Civil War, Mental Trauma and Post-War Human Capital: Evidence From Surveys of Ex-Yugoslavs in Eight Countries Barry Hashimoto Do International Courts Guard the Guardians? The Economic Consequences of War Crimes, Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide Shimaa Elsayed and Ibrahim Hatab Tunisian and Egyptian Revolutions: Causes and Trajectories Tobias Heinrich The Strategic Reneging on Foreign Aid Marc Helbling Framing immigration. Varieties of arguments, actors and opportunity structures Marc Helbling What triggers opposition towards immigration? Results from an online experiment on the impact of economic and cultural cues William B. Heller Parties, Preference Aggregation, and Policy: An Institutional Perspective on the Welfare State Dorte Hering

Cost-containment policy-mix variation of health care systems in Europe Henrik Hermansson Stakeholder influence through the European Commission's consultations - expertise, access, bias Christoffer Green-Pedersen, Sara B. Hobolt, Robert Klemmensen and Peter B. Mortensen Political Attention and Ministerial Structure: The Changing Nature of the Executive Mogens Hobolth Stemming the 'tide' of migrants and refugees? European visa-issuing practices in a cross-country perspective James R. Hollyer, B. Peter Rosendorff and James Raymond Vreeland Transparency and Democratic Transitions Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Yusaku Horiuchi and Terence Wood Doing Well by Doing Good: the Impact of PEPFAR On Global Public Opinion Alexander Horn Beyond Left and Right? The Effect of Market Ideology and Welfare Ideology on the Politics of Risk Privatization in the OECD Simon Hix and Rafael Hortala-Vallve Does Size Matter?An Experiment on the Effects of District Magnitude on Voter Behaviour Ray Duch and Rafael Hortala-Vallve Coalition directed voting in the laboratory Torun Dewan and Rafael Hortala-Vallve The cabinet and its shadow Christian Houle Ethnic Inequality and Democratization Simon Hix and Bjørn Høyland Career Considerations and Legislative Behavior in the European Parliament Sascha Huber Amiguity of Parties, Coalitions and Voting Behaviour Simon Hug and Simone Wegmann Complying with Human Rights

Niall Hughes A Model of Strategic Voting in Legislative Elections David Hugh-Jones Dynamics of Interethnic Trust Margit Bussmann and Lisa Hultman Rebel Funding and Violence against Civilians Philipp Hunziker and Lars-Erik Cederman Petroleum Reserves and Ethnonationalist Conflict Steffen Hurka Changing the Output - The Logic of Amendment Success in the European Parliament's Committee on the Environment, Public Health, and Food Safety (ENVI) Raimondas Ibenskas Marriages of Love or Interest? Party Mergers in Established and New European Democracies Diana Ichpekova After the Fall: Cohort vs. Performance in the Development of Post-Communist Attitudes Indridi H. Indridason Live for Today, Hope for Tomorrow? Rethinking Gamson's Law Irina Ionita, Andra Roescu, Mirela Vlasceanu Comparing the effects of voting rules in the Romanian context. An experimental design Kristel Jacquier Public Support for the European Union: a Comparative Analysis Thomas Jensen National Responses to Transnational Terrorism: Intelligence and Counterterrorism Provision Simon Chauchard and Francesca Refsum Jensenius Reservations about "reservations": Challenging the assumptions of statistical studies of electoral quotas in India David Johann, Thomas Meyer and Markus Wagner The narcissism of small differences? Distinguishing between spatial models of vote choice Anthony Bertelli and Peter John Political Capital and the Content of the Speech from the Throne in Britain

Karoline Bang Lindegaard Zoffmann and Mogens K. Justesen Political Regimes and AIDS in Africa: Does Democracy Fail? Peter Sandholt Jensen and Mogens K. Justesen The economic origins of vote buying in Africa Kelly M. Kadera and Vanessa Lefler Systemic Alliance Reliability and Incentives to Make New Commitments Koji Kagotani and Takeshi Iida Find Your Weakness: Domestic Turmoil and Deterrence Failure Steffen Kailitz Classifying Political Regimes by their Legitimation: Theoretical Foundation of the Typology and Coding Rules Roland Kappe Modeling Reference Point Dependent Behavior Using Threshold Models Roland Kappe A Behavioral Model of Asymmetric Retrospective Voting Rune Karlsen and Bernt Aardal Ideological Predispositions, Party Set and Issue Ownership: How Stable and Dynamic Factors Affect Vote Choice David Karol Showing their Hands: Explaining Why Members of Congress Announce their Retirements Earlier and Earlier in the Electoral Cycle. Kerim Can Kavakli Innovate for Peace: Trade, Technology Transfer and War Mark Kayser and Shanker Satyanath Fairytale Growth: Culture and the Production Function Ray Duch, Paul Kellstedt and Katsunori Seki The Political Economy of Global Economic Shocks and Consumer Confidence Ozge Kemahlioglu Partisan Incumbency Advantage and Democracy: Municipal Level Analysis of Elections in Chile and Turkey Ozge Kemahlioglu and Elif Ozdemir

Partisan Ties as Incumbency Advantage in the Nascent Predominant Party System of Turkey Achim Kemmerling The End of Work or Work Without End? The Causes and Consequences of Beliefs about Labour Market Policies Andrew Kerner The Ownership Society in Latin America: Pension Reform, Stock Markets and Economic Voting Steven J. Brams and D. Marc Kilgour When Does Approval Voting Make the 'Right Choices'? Soo Yeon Kim Negotiating the Nexus: Production Networks, Sovereignty Costs, and Behind-the-Border Commitments in Regional Trade Agreements Zsolt Kiss and Sara Hobolt Negative campaigning, emotions and political participation. Johannes Kleibl Supervisory Fragmentation and Prudent Bank Behaviour Mareike Kleine Knowing Your Limits: Political Judgment and Authority in the EU and Beyond Heike Kluever and Jae-Jae Spoon Bringing Salience Back In: Explaining Voting Defection in the European Parliament Heike Kluever and Radoslaw Zubek Legislative Pledges and Coalition Government: Evidence from Poland, 2008-2011 Carl Henrik Knutsen Democracy and Income Inequality Philipp Köker Presidential Activism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): A statistical analysis of the use of presidential vetoes in the CEE EU member states, 1990-2010 Thomas König and Daniel Finke Making the Lisbon Reform Work. From intergovernmental bargaining to presidential crisis management in the European Union Thomas König and Bernd Luig

The Conditionality of Parliamentary Oversight: Ministerial Gatekeeping and Party Pivots in in the Implementation Process of Directives Nikitas Konstantinidis Differentiated Integration and Institutional Design Nikitas Konstantinidis Military Conscription as a Commitment Device Sabino Kornrich Unequal investments in children? Private household spending in four welfare states, 1972-2009 Spyros Kosmidis Electoral Accountability and Length of Office Tenure Vally Koubi, Lena Schaffer, Gabriele Spilker and Thomas Bernauer Environmental Degradation and Migration Vally Koubi, Jacek Kugler, Tobias Böhmelt and Tadeusz Kugler Climate Change, Power Parity, and Civil Conflict Christos Kourtelis Lobbying for cooperation? The Euro-Mediterranean relations as a three-level game Amie Kreppel Autonomy and Influence: An Initial Test of a Comparative Theory of Legislative Power Martin Kroh and Harald Schoen Mobilization by Opportunity? Direct Democracy and Political Interest Verena Kroth Political Budget Cycles and Intergovernmental Transfers in a Dominant Party Framework: Empirical Evidence from South Africa Jule Krüger Modelling the Reporting of Conflict Fatalities: Insights from Sierra Leone Daniel Kselman A Spatial Model with Endogenous Linkage Strategies Jeffrey Kucik The "New Compensation": Managing Market Risk with Formal Trade Agreements Patrick M Kuhn

When Ballots Spark Bullets: Explaining the Persistent Cross-National Variation in Campaign Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2007 Theresa Kuhn and Jørgen Bølstad Triangulating experimental and survey research on cross-national differences in tax morale Theresa Kuhn, Erika van Elsas, Armèn Hakhverdian and Wouter van der Brug An ever wider gap in an ever closer Union. Rising inequalities and euroscepticism in 12 West European democracies, 1976-2008 Patrick M. Kuhn Bullets for You and Cash for Others: On Perpetrators and Targets of Campaign Violence Basak Kus Rethinking Politics of Inequality and Welfare: Bringing Consumption into the Picture Valentino Larcinese Enfranchisement and Representation: Italy 1909-1913 Benjamin E. Lauderdale and Tom S. Clark Scaling Meaningful Political Dimensions: Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation to Substantively Identify Many-Dimensional Item Response Models Sebastián Lavezzolo Political Lending: The Case of Spanish Saving Banks Patrick Le Bihan Popular Referendum and Electoral Accountability Adrienne LeBas An Experimental Approach to Violence and Ethnic Cues in Kenya Adrienne LeBas Trust and Taxation in Urban Nigeria Lucas Leemann Heckman Meets Signorino: Selection and Structure Lucas Leemann and Isabela Mares From 'open secrets' to the secret ballot: The economic and political determinants of secret ballot reform Ron D. Lehrer Intra-Party Democracy and Party Responsiveness

Debra Leiter Does Proximity Drive Valence Perceptions? The Relationship between Ideological Proximity and Valence Perceptions in Germany and the Netherlands Ed Fieldhouse, Laurence Lessard-Phillips and Bruce Edmonds The Complexity of Turnout: An Agent-Based Simulation of Electoral Participation Hanna Lierse Public support for taxing the rich: what explains cross-national differences? Stefan Lindemann Ethnic exclusion and the puzzle of diverging conflict trajectories: case study evidence from Africa, Asia and Latin America Mark Andreas Kayser and Rene Lindstaedt The Essence of Electoral Systems: A Universal Approach to Studying Electoral Competitiveness and Representation Nathan M. Jensen and Rene Lindstaedt Global Discrimination: Anti-Foreign Sentiments and Foreign Direct Investment Christine S. Lipsmeyer How Government Policy Influences the Shifting Sands of Party Support Marco Lisi Explaining the 'floating vote'across countries: between individual factors and institutional characteristics Andrew Little Signaling Strength with Elections and Electoral Repression Andrew Little Coordination, Coups, and Civilian Control of the Military Levente Littvay and Till Weber Quasi-Experimental Methods to Test Survey Bias: Mode effects, country variance and extreme response style in the 2009 European Election Study Tobias Heinrich and Matt Loftis Foreign aid and the quality of the candidate pool Matt Loftis The Politics of Output and Venue Choice in Coalition Policy Making

Will Lowe and Kenneth Benoit A Negative Binomial Scaling Model for Latent Positions Using Words As Data Noam Lupu Brand Dilution and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America Noam Lupu and Jonas Pontusson Inequality and Demand for Redistribution Adriaan Luyten and Christophe Crombez Aggregate Party Identification in Germany: The Effects of Consumer Confidence and Government Approval MATTHIAS MADER, ALEXANDER GLANTZ and JANA PÖTZSCHKE Predispositions and Public Support for the War in Afghanistan in Germany Martino Maggetti and Fabrizio Gilardi Meta-Regulation through Networks: The Case of EU Energy Regulators Tatiana Vargas Maia Nationalist Sentiments and Proclivity to Conflict Marco Mainenti Conditional regulatory independence: the determinants of the European Commission's decisions on state aid Thomas Malang and Dirk Leuffen Explaining the Salience of Small Member States in EU Decision Making Soo Yeon Kim and Mark Manger Models of Governance: Second-Order Effects of US and EU RTAs Philip Manow, Valentin Schröder and Carsten Nickel Patterns of Parliamentarization: Executive-Legislative Interaction in the German Reichstag, 1890-1914 Beatrice Manske Autocracies, Torture, and the Efficacy of Human Rights Treaties Weizhun Mao Can International Trade Institutions Promote Peace? A Regression Discontinuity Design Test on GATT/WTO

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EU Leadership in Global Environmental Governance - The Case of the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-Sharing Cristina Radoi Women's condition in military institutions' Adam Ramey Weighing the Alternatives: Preferences, Parties, and Constituency and Roll Call Voting Antonio Pedro Ramos Political Regimes and Death: Democracy and its Consequences on Child Mortality for 175 Countries Between 1970 and 2009 Scott Ashworth and Kristopher W. Ramsay Should Audiences Cost Florian Ranft The Stability of Power-Sharing Agreements in Peace Processes Christian Rauh Driving or being driven? Public politicisation and position formation in the EU Commission Mascha Rauschenbach Clientelism or Ideology? When opposition strategies in African electoral democracies become credible' José Real-Dato and Javier Alarcón-González The relevance of the European Parliament in political careers: evidence from the Spanish MEPs (1986-2011) David P. Redlawsk, William W. Cohen, Douglas Pierce, Ramnath Balasubramanyan, and Tae Yano Rational Updating in the Face of Incongruent Candidate Information Janine Reinhard Argumentative Strategies in EU Constitutional Negotiations Bernhard Reinsberg Two Parties - Less Cake? Divided Government and Multilateral Aid Brian Kelleher Richter, Adam Fremeth and Brandon Schaufele Political Campaign Contributions of Individuals in Leadership Roles Pedro Riera

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Frank Schimmelfennig, Dirk Leuffen and Berthold Rittberger The differentiated European integration of core state powers Dirk Leuffen, Berthold Rittberger and Frank Schimmelfennig Ever looser union? Theorizing differentiated integration in Europe Carina Schmitt Learning from Best Practice or Drawing Political Lessons? The Privatization of Public Utilities Richard Johnston, Patrick Kraft, Julia Partheymüller and Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck Election Campaigns and 'Correct Voting' in a Multi-Party System: A Study of the 2005 and 2009 German Federal Elections Alexander Schmotz and Dag Tanneberg Authoritarian Survival: Patterns of Persistence and Change under Dictatorship Dag Tanneberg and Alexander Schmotz The Carrot and the Stick: The Interdependence of Cooptation and Repression in the Stabilization of Autocratic Regimes Paulina Pospieszna and Gerald Schneider The Illusion of 'Peace Through Power Sharing': Constitutional Choices in the Shadow of Civil War Gerald Schneider and Hanja Blendin Deterrence under Stress: Experimental Tests of Crisis Bargaining Models Cesi Cruz and Christina Schneider The (Unintended) Electoral Effects of Multilateral Aid Projects Steffen Schneider and Achim Hurrelmann The Politicization of Regional Integration: Is the European Union Truly a Special Case? Andreas Fleig and Daniel Finke Motivated by the Process: How Decision-Making Procedures Shape the Motivation Function Under Majority Rule Daniel Finke and Tanja Dannwolf Domestic Scrutiny of European Union Politics: Between Whistle Blowing and Opposition Control Norman Schofield and Evan Schnidman Leadership in U.S. Electoral Politics Valentin Schröder

Making Candidates Count and Still Preserving the System: Pre-electoral Coordination among Parties in German Reichstag Elections, 1890-1912 Philip A. Schrodt and Benjamin Bagozzi Detecting Latent Topics in Political News Reports using Latent Dirichlet Allocation Models Livia I. Schubiger and Manuel Vogt Transnational Norms or National Institutions? Mitigating Mining Conflicts in Latin America Daniel Schultz Random Acts of Sophisticated Voting? - How much do citizens need to know to cast a strategic vote? Henrike Schultze How and Why They Fail: Coalition Stability in Central Eastern Europe Gijs Schumacher and Matthijs Rooduijn Anti-establishment as a selling point. Explaining the Populist Party Vote in Four Recent Elections Sebastian Schutte Ethnicized Conflict: From Fallujah to Sarajevo Thomas J. Scotto, and Jason Reifler Audience Costs: Domestic, International, and Across the Poind Roger Scully and Richard Wyn Jones Valence Politics and Sub-State Elections: Scotland and Wales Compared Susanne Michalik and Laura Seelkopf Partisanship and foreign aid allocation Hanna Lierse and Laura Seelkopf Capital liberalization, government bonds and tax reforms Lee J.M. Seymour Reconsidering State Death in the Contemporary International System Kristin Bakke, Kathleen Cunningham and Lee J.M. Seymour Divided we Stand: Explaining Cohesion and Fragmentation in Ethnopolitical Movements Mahvish Shami The Impact of Market Exposure on Public Goods Provision Yael Shomer

Institutional reforms and their effect on legislators' behavior: the Israeli experience, 1992-2011. Alexander V. Hirsch and Kenneth W. Shotts Competitive Policy Entrepreneurship in Legislatures Aurelio Wander Bastos and Debora Lacs Sichel Brazilian Electoral Procedures Katri K. Sieberg and Olga Shvetsova US Healthcare or What Could Be: Efficient Healthcare Design Curtis Signorino and David Carter Time Dependent Binary Data with Censoring Curtis Signorino and Brenton Kenkel An Alternative Solution to the Heckman Selection Problem: Selection Bias as Functional Form Misspecification Marco Simoni and Timothee Vlandas Institutional and Political Determinants of Dualization Gabor Simonovits Competition and Turnout Revisited: The Importance of Measuring Expected Closeness Properly Vit Simral Formateurs and Cabinet Formation in Western, Central, and Eastern Europe Mariana Skirmuntt Assessing the effects of local ethnic distribution on non-electoral participation in urban England Mariana Skirmuntt The local roots of the participation gap: a multilevel analysis of non-electoral participation in English localities Jonathan Smiles Measuring Legislative Outcomes - A Comparative Analysis Alastair Smith Endogenous Bloc Formation Florence So Party Leadership Replacement in Parliamentary Democracies Florence So

A Theory of Party Leadership Selection: Why Large, Moderate Parties Sometimes Choose Extreme Leaders Jacob Sohlberg Political Elites and the Basis of European Attitudes on Climate Change Albert Solé-Ollé, Pilar Sorribas-Navarro and Marta Curto-Grau The returns to partisan alignment between regional and local governments Udi Sommer and Olga Frishman Institutional Isomorphism in Constitutional Courts: Translated Opinions as Means and Products of Transnational Judicial Dialogue Rune J. Sørensen Party polarization and government efficiency Andrew Eggers and Arthur Spirling Partisan Convergence in Executive-Legislative Interactions: Modeling Debates in the House of Commons, 1832--1915 Sara B. Hobolt, Jae-Jae Spoon, and Catherine E. De Vries The Dynamics of the Issue Space: The Evolution of the Environmental Issue in Europe Piero Stanig A Formal Model of Dogwhistling Carie A. Steele Disease Control and Donor Priorities: The Political Economy of Development Aid for Health Carie A. Steele International Cooperation and Domestic Preservation: The Selection of World Heritage Site Christine Fauvelle-Aymar and Mary Stegmaier The Stock Market and Government Approval Daniel Stegmueller Modeling dynamic preferences. A Bayesian dynamic latent ordered probit model Daniel Stegmueller The effect of cognitive and noncognitive skills on preferences for redistribution. Katharina Böhm, Claudia Landwehr and Nils D. Steiner What explains 'generosity' in the public financing of high-tech drugs?: An Empirical Investigation for 26 OECD Countries and 11 Controversial Drugs

Bernard Steunenberg Budgetary decision-making as a multi-layered game: The interaction between spending departments and the Treasury Pierre Landry and Daniela Stockmann Crisis Management in an Authoritarian Regime: Media Effects during the Sichuan Earthquake in China Lukas Stoetzer The Updating Model of Issue Voting Peter Stone Introducing Difference into the Condorcet Jury Theorem Jesse Stroobants and Geert Bouckaert Steering actors of public sector reform initiatives: Case studies of the Netherlands and the United Kingdom Leonardo Baccini and Maria Laura Sudulich Lost in Transmission: Evaluating Media Bias Towards the European Union Sarah Surak Pollution, Production, and Protection: Managing the Disposal of Waste Electronics in the European Union Isak Svensson Ending "Holy Wars": Religion, Civil War Termination, and Peace in East Asia Milan Svolik and Svitlana Chernykh Electoral manipulation, post-electoral protest, and democratic legitimacy Junko Kato and Seiki Tanaka Taxation without Representation? Explaining the Relationship between State Revenue Production and Regime Type Michael Tatham and Michael Bauer Playing with the grown-ups: the determinants of regional influence on EU decision-taking Kamil Marcinkiewicz and Markus Tepe Mandates, parties and positions: A quantitative analysis of self-reported biographical texts of German MPs Susumu Shikano and Markus Tepe

Learning to Get the Job Done? An Experimental Analysis of Learning Processes in the Repeated Oversight Game Patrick Theiner Requesting Aid - Explaining Variation in State Applications for Global Fund Grants Cameron G. Thies and Timothy Peterson Intra-industry Trade, Liberalization, and Militarized Conflict Kathrin Thomas and Christopher Wlezien Is anyone listening? The responsiveness of public agendas to parties' issue priorities Raimondas Ibenskas and Robert Thomson The challenger model: Macro and micro-level tests on decision-making in the European Union. Paul W. Thurner, Marcel Kiel and Micha Schneider Comittee Networks in the European Parliament: Structure and Impact on the Allocation of Reports Paul W. Thurner, Andre Klima and Helmut Kuechenhoff Agricultural Structure and the Rise of the Nazi Party Reconsidered Guido Tiemann Choosing Policy, Compensating Consensus, or Pushing for Change Guido Tiemann Projection and Bias. What Happens when Spatial Voting Models are Contaminated by Non-Spatial Inputs? Jerry Nicklesburg, and Jeffrey F. Timmons Specific Skilled Labor and the Demand For Insurance Rodolfo Torregrosa and Nhorys Torregrosa Challenges of transitional justice in Colombia. A reconciliation far? Katharina Holzinger and Jale Tosun Mechanisms of Differentiated Integration: Decisions, Strategies, Outcomes Richard Traunmueller The Dynamic Effects of Social Context on Political Preferences in Germany Philipp Trein Between Individual Treatment and Mass-based Policy Instruments: Co-evolution and Coordination of Public Health and Health Care Sectors

Vera E. Troeger and Elias Dinas Bridging the gap between strength and validity with IV-Loess: How to increase the efficiency of weak continuous instruments David Soskice and Vera E. Troeger Stabilization Policies in a Post-Mundell-Fleming World Mandy Troger Free Markets for Free Media? U.S. Policy Measures and the Building of the German Media Siim Trumm The Invisible Votes: Non-Roll Call Votes in the European Parliament Teemu Lyytikäinen and Janne Tukiainen Voters are rational - A regression discontinuity test for the rational voting hypothesis Michio Umeda The Effect of Population Aging on Politics: Attitude and Saliency of Welfare Issue among the Old and the Young Emrah Uyar Electoral Systems and Distribution of Ideological Preferences: A New Approach to the "Ideological Congruence Controversy" Wim Van Aken Decision Making in the Council of the European Union Samuel Berlinski, Torun Dewan and Brenda Van Coppenolle Franchise Extension and the British Aristocracy Brenda Van Coppenolle Political Dynasties and the 2010 Belgian general election Sven Van Kerckhoven and Christophe Crombez (In)Equality in the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism: An Asymmetric Information Model Lanny Martin and Georg Vanberg Multiparty Government, Fiscal Institutions, and Public Spending Markus Tepe and Pieter Vanhuysse Cops for Hire? The Political Timing of Police Employment in German States, 1992-2008 Katjana Gattermann and Sofia Vasilopoulou

Two level games? Fringe Eurosceptic parties and the media Federico Vegetti Don't blame me, I'm on your side. Party system polarization and the balance between ideology and performance in Europe. Cristinela - Ionela Velicu Informal payments: how does it manifest in Central and Eastern Europe health systems? Kåre Vernby Representative Democracy and Group Solidarity: Theory and Quasi-Experimental Evidence M. Camilo Vial Political and fiscal decentralization in unitary states from South America: the cases of Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Jessie Tarlov, Nick Vivyan and Markus Wagner Does bad news reduce bias? Informational environment, partisan attachments and voter perceptions of political misconduct Mirela Vlasceanu Funding Policies in Romanian Higher Education Inken von Borzyskowski Sore Losers? International Influences on Post-Election Violence Aiko Wagner Choices v Choice Sets Markus Wagner Fear and anger in Great Britain: the political sources and consequences of emotional reactions to the financial crisis Stefanie Walter Distributional Politics in Times of Crisis. Eastern European Policy Responses to the 2008-10 Global Economic Crisis Andreas Warntjen The elusive quest for continuity? Legislative Decision-Making in the Council and the Council Presidency before and after Lisbon Till Weber Critical cases: Assessing collinearity and synergy in spatial models of voting

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