www.worldbank.org/hdchiefeconomist

The

World Bank

Human Development

Network

Spanish Impact

Evaluation Fund

Farhad Ahmed, Brek Batley, Radia Benamghar, Silva Shrestha, Tara Sharafudeen

Dhaka, Bangladesh

October 9-13, 2011

Evaluating Impact

Nepal Bridge Improvement &

Maintenance Project (P4R)

1. Background• Nepal’s road and bridge system are its social and economic lifeline. • To

• Total Strategic Road Network (SRN) length is 10,800 km

• SRN includes 1365 bridges (many 40 years old, maintenance backlog)

• Estimated 300 new bridges required to be built to fill the gaps in the SRN

• Funding for overall road development program has increased

substantially (60% increase for routine maintenance budget and 450% for

major (periodic and rehabilitation).

• For 2010/11, bridge program is US$35 million

• But still shortfalls in funding: US$60-70m required to address the

backlog maintenance and US$200 million to provide the missing bridges.

•And maintenance system is subject to political and other influences

Punched holes on deck

A bridge sagged due to the failure of steel

parts and broken railings: A case of major

repair

2. Description of Intervention

The intervention will help in the

maintenance and rehabilitation & construction

of bridges in Nepal.

Development of Bridge Management

System (BMS)

Prioritized list of bridges to be

maintained under budget constraints

Roster of bridges with conditions

Bridge asset management

A prioritized list of new bridges to be

constructed

3. Results Chain

o X million $

funds

INPUTS ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMESLONGER-TERM

OUTCOMESHIGHER ORDER GOALS

o Developmen

t of a Bridge

Management

System

(BMS)

o Developmen

t of a

prioritized

list of

bridges

o Developmen

t of

Maintenance

/rehabilitatio

n of bridges

o Improvemen

t of bridges

o Capacity

Building

o X nos.

Bridges

maintained

based on

BMS

o X no. of

prioritized

bridges

rehabilitated

o X no. of

prioritized

bridges

constructed

o Improved

livelihoods of

beneficiary

population

o Better

physical

connectivity

to socio-

economic

centers/

facilities

4. Primary Research Questions

Does prioritized maintenance intervention lead to

enhanced connectivity?

Does prioritized rehabilitation intervention lead to

considerably enhanced connectivity?

Does prioritized construction of bridges lead to provision

of better connectivity?

5. Outcome Indicators

Travel time to:

markets

health centres

educational institutions

Administrative centres

Travel time for non-local traffic

Frequency of trips to facilities & services:

markets

health centres

educational institutions

Administrative centres

Maintenance?

6. Identification Strategy/ Method

Concept: Regression discontinuity

Bridges will be built/rehabilitated from a prioritized list

Method: Difference in Difference

collect base-line data

conduct follow-up

7. Sample and Data

Sample

Baseline: Year 2012 for top 60 Bridges from the prioritized list

Impact: Year 2016 for top 60 Bridges from the prioritized list

Treatment: the top 30 bridges (completed) before follow-up survey in

2016 (20-30 bridges)

Control: the bottom 30 (of the top 60) bridges in 2016 (30-40 bridges)

Data to be measured:

Site specific travel time data to socio-economic facilities and services

from the nearest settlement(s)

Local: travel time to facilities and services from the centre of

settlements which within 5 km radius of the bridge (settlement level)

Non-local: travel time of traffic between non-interfering two

intersections (>5 km radius)

Frequency of visits to facilities/services by residents living within

5km radius of the bridge (HH level measurement) + HH attributes

8. Time Frame / Work Plan

Finalization of prioritized list of bridges (end-2011)

Baseline (2012):

settlements: 3,000 HHs (60 bridges x 50 HHs)

time:

Appointment of consultants: Month 2

Data collection, tabulation & analysis: Month 6

Reporting: Month 8

Follow-up (2016):

settlements: 3,000 HHs (60 bridges x 50 HHs)

Time:

Appointment of consultants: Month 2

Data collection, tabulation & analysis: Month 8

Reporting: Month 10

9. Sources of Financing

Nepal Bridge Improvement and Maintenance Project (N-

BIMP)

Trust-funds (Aus-AID?)

Estimated costs: $500,000 (0.8% of project)