evaluation of the requirements of the forecasters
DESCRIPTION
Evaluation of the Requirements of the Forecasters. COST 722, Phase I, WGii Urs Sutter MeteoSwiss. Outline. General Overview Highlights of the Answers Some Analysis. Question 1: Forecaster Services. Question 2: Observations (1). Question 2: Observations (2). Question 2: Observations (3). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Evaluation of theEvaluation of the
Requirements of the Requirements of the ForecastersForecasters
COST 722, Phase I, WGiiCOST 722, Phase I, WGii
Urs SutterUrs Sutter
MeteoSwissMeteoSwiss
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
OutlineOutline
1.1. General OverviewGeneral Overview
2.2. Highlights of the AnswersHighlights of the Answers
3.3. Some AnalysisSome Analysis
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 1: Forecaster ServicesQuestion 1: Forecaster Services
3326
61
86
0102030405060708090
100
Aviation Marine Road Phone etc.
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 2: Observations (1)Question 2: Observations (1)
10
0 0 0
25
11 148
85
13
40 1
23
12
30
14
94
45
21
0102030405060708090
100
Alway
s
Somet
imes
Never
Not a
vail.
Don't
know
SYNOPAutoSYNOPMETARAUTOMETAR
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 2: Observations (2)Question 2: Observations (2)
28
29
4
31
13 14
3
82
14
1 3 2
1721
37
10
5450
5
0102030405060708090
Alway
s
Somet
imes
Never
Not a
vail.
Don't
know
AWSAuto VIS meas.Upper Air SoundingRoad Weather StationsWindprofilerMast Measurements
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 2: Observations (3)Question 2: Observations (3)
2320
3 3
19
30 0
63
32
18
04
11
64
104
12
36
5
1310 12
43
81
10
54
36
27
0102030405060708090
Alway
s
Somet
imes
Never
Not a
vail.
Don't
know
Weather RadarMETEOSATNOAACloud RadarVideo/Web CAMMast Measurements
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 2: Observations (4)Question 2: Observations (4)
6
30
55
15
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Alway
s
Somet
imes
Never
Not a
vail.
Don't
know
Radiation Balance
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 3: Very Shortrange Question 3: Very Shortrange FCST SystemFCST System
70
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Yes No
YesNo
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 4Question 4Where are OBS?Where are OBS?
4
11
4
1
7
1
25
1
1012
1012
0
28
5
2
22
8
33
10
3
0
29
2525 25
8
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Workstation Internet Intranet Elsewhere
SYNOPMETARAWSUpper Air SoundingWeather radarMETEOSATNOAAVideo/Web
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.1Question 5.1How satisfied ?How satisfied ?
32
39
18
2
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1 (veryunsatisfied)
2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.2Question 5.2Main shortages ?Main shortages ?
10883
177
98
361
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Rank points
Update too slowRrepresentation poorInformation dispersedtoo few observationsall data not shown
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.3 (1)Question 5.3 (1)What OBS required more often ?What OBS required more often ?
37
2932
16 16
10
42
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
SYNOP METAR TEMP SAT (i.e.NOAA)
AWS Visibility Ceilometer
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.3 (2) Question 5.3 (2) How often ?How often ?
15
4
9 9
5
11
46
37
1
5
11 10
1
4 5 43
0 1
4 43
02 1
8
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
more than1 h
1 h 30' 15' real time
SYNOPMETARTEMPSAT (i.e. NOAA)AWSVisibilityCeilometer
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.4 (1)Question 5.4 (1)What NEW OBS required?What NEW OBS required?
1816
15 1513
11
19
02468
101214161820
Visib
ility
Profil
er (W
ind-
/Tem
p.-)
Web
)CAM
s
SAT (i.e
. NOAA/M
SG)
Ceilo
met
erAW
S
Cloud
radar
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.4 (2) Question 5.4 (2) How often ?How often ?
1 1
8
9
2
3
7
4
3
1 1
2
9
1
6
7
5
3
4
1 1
5 5
3
2 2
7
4
0123456789
10
morethan 1 h
1 h 30' 15' real time
Visibility(Wind-)Profiler/SodarWeb(CAMs)CeilometerSAT (Fog Channel)AWSCloud radar
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 5.5Question 5.5Opinion about Geographical Opinion about Geographical
locations?locations?
23
29
52
44
4
49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
YES by my ownactivity
They ask NO Would liketo
Would notlike to
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.1Question 6.1How often?How often?
26
13
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
never sometimes often
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.2Question 6.2How satisfied ?How satisfied ?
25
12
5
1
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 (veryunsatisfied)
2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.3Question 6.3Main shortages ?Main shortages ?
4840
123
45
110
020406080
100120140
Updat
e to
o slo
w
Repre
senta
tion
poor
Info
rmat
ion
disp
erse
d
too fe
w obse
rvat
ions
all d
ata
not s
hown
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.4 (1)Question 6.4 (1)What OBS required more often ?What OBS required more often ?
7
12
57
4 4
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
SYNOP
META
R
TEMP
SAT (i.e
. NOAA)
AUTOSYNOP
Visib
ility
Ceilo
met
er
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.4 (2) Question 6.4 (2) How often ?How often ?
12
5
22
5
12
1
2
45
4
1 1
2
1
2
1
2
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
more than1 h
1 h 30' 15' real time
SYNOPMETARTEMPSAT (i.e. NOAA)AUTOSYNOPVisibilityCeilometer
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.5 (1)Question 6.5 (1)What NEW OBS required?What NEW OBS required?
4
5
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
TEMP/ra
dioso
undin
g
SAT ("fo
g ch
anne
l")
(Web
-) CAM
sAW
S
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.5 (2)Question 6.5 (2)Others mentionedOthers mentioned
• VisibilityVisibility• AUTOSYNOPAUTOSYNOP• (Net) Radiation(Net) Radiation• CeilometersCeilometers• BuoyBuoy• WindprofilerWindprofiler• More OBSMore OBS
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 6.5 (3) Question 6.5 (3) How often ?How often ?
12
3
17
8
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
more than 1 h 1 h 30' 15' real time
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.1Question 7.1Official Climate Info?Official Climate Info?
59
12
21
10
31
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
YES Specificdomestic
Specificforeign
mapdomestic
map foreign NO
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.2Question 7.2Do you use climate info ?Do you use climate info ?
40
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
YES NO
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.3Question 7.3Which sources ?Which sources ?
3539 39
2218
9
56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
My
own
Map
/dia
gram
s
paper
com
puter
numer
ical
/sta
tistic
s
paper
com
pter
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.4Question 7.4What kinds ?What kinds ?
1412
97
65
15
02468
10121416
diagra
ms
loca
l/num
erica
l sta
tistic
s
loca
l dia
gram
s (e
.g. a
irp...
exper
ienc
em
aps
tables
case
stu
dies
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.5Question 7.5Main shortages ?Main shortages ?
87102
181
2737
020406080
100120140160180200
Do no
t know
how to
use
poor r
epre
senta
tion
info
rmat
ion
disp
erse
d
few s
ites
data n
ot av
ailab
le
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.6 (1) Question 7.6 (1) What climate info would you like?What climate info would you like?
1816
1210 9
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
do no
t know
!
numer
ical
met
hods/m
o...
diagra
ms
loca
l sta
tisic
s, p
robb
ilitie
s
more
clim
ate s
ites/
data
map
s
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.6 (2)Question 7.6 (2)additional answersadditional answers
• Frequency maps or variablesFrequency maps or variables• MapsMaps• ProfilesProfiles• More dataMore data• Radiation balanceRadiation balance• Weather type cliamtologyWeather type cliamtology
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.7 (1) Question 7.7 (1) Do you have special statistical Do you have special statistical
model for prediction ?model for prediction ?
17
2 2
74
01020304050607080
NOYES
clim
atol
ogic
al ch
eckl
ists
exper
imen
tal s
tatis
tics
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 7.7 (2) Question 7.7 (2) additional answers:additional answers:
• MOSMOS• Experimental statisticsExperimental statistics• Model 850 hPa WBPT vs SSTModel 850 hPa WBPT vs SST• Statistical modelStatistical model• Saunders, CRADOCK, COBEL, NIMROD ..?Saunders, CRADOCK, COBEL, NIMROD ..?
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.1Question 8.1Numerical ModelsNumerical Models
17
13
35
15
74
14 5
14
4
39
2
05
1015202530354045
ECWMF ALADIN ARPEGE HIRLAM(DK, FIN,
ESP)
UK Meso aLMo
WorkstationInternetIntranet
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.2Question 8.2Numerical Models: pressure level Numerical Models: pressure level
fieldsfields• In general: In general:
Combination ofCombination of• SFCSFC• 1000 hPa1000 hPa• 950 hPa950 hPa• 925 hPa925 hPa• 850 hPa850 hPa• 800 hPa800 hPa
• ALADIN:ALADIN:– 2, 10, 50, 100, 2, 10, 50, 100,
250, 500, 750 250, 500, 750 1000, 1250, 1000, 1250, 1500 m1500 m
– 1000, 950, 900, 1000, 950, 900, 850, 800 hPa850, 800 hPa
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.3Question 8.3Numerical Models: pressure level Numerical Models: pressure level
fields proposedfields proposed• d 20 hPad 20 hPa
• d 5 and 10 hPad 5 and 10 hPa
• 950 hPa950 hPa
• No more levelsNo more levels
• As much as As much as possiblepossible 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
#
d 50 hPad 25 hPa
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.4 (1)Question 8.4 (1)available model products ?available model products ?
9
64
45
27
9
53
81
19
67
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
YES NO
Troposhere modelsounding of tt, rh, wind
model soundingfocused on boundarylayertime-height crosssectinos of differentlevelsMeteograms
cross sections ofdiferent fields
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.4 (2)Question 8.4 (2)available model products ?available model products ?
53
59
10
66
44
7
31
18
32
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
YES NO
diagnosed visibilityfieldsdiagnosed low cloudsbase fieldsdiagnosed low cloudstop fieldsdiagnosed low cloudsbase amountdiagnosed low cloudsbase phase
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.5Question 8.5How satisfied ?How satisfied ?
44
20
5
0
26
05
101520253035404550
1 (veryunsatisfied)
2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.6Question 8.6Main shortages ?Main shortages ?
5636
245
31 22
72
050
100150200250300
Produ
cts
too
late
Poor r
epre
senta
tion
Info
rmat
ion
disp
erse
d
few u
sefu
l pro
ducts
mode
l erro
rs/n
ot reli
abl..
.
FG not p
redict
ed
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
•Question 8.7Question 8.71-d models available ?1-d models available ?
• Check (d)p, tCheck (d)p, tLL, , ttDD, wind, wind
• ALADINALADIN• Only for Only for
visibilityvisibility• 30 years of 30 years of
experienceexperience0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
#
YESNO
COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH
Question 8.8Question 8.8new productsnew products
• high resolution in the boundary layerhigh resolution in the boundary layer (12)(12)• Boundary layer modelBoundary layer model (11)(11)• Low cloud parameter modelLow cloud parameter model (7)(7)• Fog model (determ./probab./statis.)Fog model (determ./probab./statis.) (7)(7)• Radiation balance modelRadiation balance model (4)(4)• Cross-sectionsCross-sections (4)(4)• 1-d model for specific location1-d model for specific location (4)(4)• ......