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MITEF Forecasters
Luncheon
January 2017
BBVA Research USA
2
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Key messages
Uncertainty to remain high in 2017 as geopolitical tensions shift abroad
and emerging markets deal with protectionism, financial and fiscal
imbalances and lower global liquidity
Domestic economy on solid footing and nearing equilibrium levels after
investment slump in 2016
Despite concerns of the length of the current cycle pro-growth policies
and renewed optimism suggests upside to growth in next administration
High degree of uncertainty over magnitude, mix and timing of Trump
agenda
3
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
World GDP, QoQ%
1 Populism to remain on the ballot. Will EU
give rebuke to rising tide?
Global growth drivers and supportive
policies will keep 2017 growth above 3%
Higher commodity prices and stronger U.S.
growth to support recovery in EM
Risks Brexit, European elections,
dissolution of EU, Chinese imbalances,
protectionism, geopolitical conflict
2
GDP growth, current forecasts*
4
Source: BBVA Research
Unchanged
Upward Review
Downward Review
3
2017: Certain about the uncertain
0.82
0.88
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Dec
-11
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Jun-
13
Dec
-13
Jun-
14
Dec
-14
Jun-
15
Dec
-15
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
CI 20% CI 40% CI 60% Point Estimates Period average
US EMU Spain Mex
LATAm-5
Turkey China
Em.
Asia Arg Brazil Andean
2015 2.6 1.9 3.2 2.5 2.5 -3.9 2.2 4.0 6.9 6.6
2016 1.6 1.6 3.3 1.8 -2.0 -3.0 2.3 2.3 6.6 6.5
2017 2.3 1.5 2.5 2.2 3.2 0.9 2.2 3.0 5.8 6.0
4
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Market Risk Indicators CBOE Market Volatility,%
Financial markets
Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg & Haver Analytics
SP Equity Indexes, Jan-2016=100
Low High
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Equities Crude OIl
S&P 500
Energy
Construction
Consumer
Banks
3-Month Yield
10-Year Yield
Corporate Spreads-AAA
Corporate Spreads-BBB
Market Volatility Index
Crude Oil Volatility Index
C&I Loans
Real Estate Loans
CRE Loans
Credit Card Loans
Brazil
Italy
Turkey
Venezuela
Argentina
Financial Stress
Consumer Comfort
Busines Conditions Index
Exchange Rate
Mis
c.
Current1-month
ago
3-months
ago
6-monts
ago
1-year
ago
Eq
uitie
sB
on
ds
Volatility
Cre
dit
So
ve
reig
ns
(C
DS
)
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16Energy Construction Consumer Banks
5
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Investment slump fading
Real Private Fixed Investment
+/- s.d.
Nonfinancial Corporate Profits & Gross
Private Domestic Investment*, Billions $
Weak corporate balance sheets, credit constraints and uncertainty
dampen investment in ‘16
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Sep-2
000
Aug-2
001
Jul-2
002
Jun-2
003
Ma
y-2
004
Apr-
2005
Ma
r-2
006
Feb
-2007
Jan-2
008
De
c-2
008
No
v-2
009
Oct-
2010
Sep-2
011
Aug-2
012
Jul-2
013
Jun-2
014
Ma
y-2
015
Apr-
2016
Gross Domestic Investment Corporate Profits-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
Q3-2016Q4-2015Q1-2015Q2-2014Q3-2013
Mining Manufacturing
Equipment IP
Structures ex. Mining & Manu. Residential
Fixed Investment
Source: BBVA Research, BEA & Haver Analytics
6
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Finding the next investment cycle
Private Fixed Investment Forecasts Average year-over-year, %
Real Private Fixed Investment +/- s.d.
Single family and multifamily investment cycle in line with historical
averages; mining sector correcting.
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
De
c-1
999
Oct-
2000
Aug-2
001
Jun-2
002
Apr-
2003
Feb
-2004
De
c-2
004
Oct-
2005
Aug-2
006
Jun-2
007
Apr-
2008
Feb
-2009
De
c-2
009
Oct-
2010
Aug-2
011
Jun-2
012
Apr-
2013
Feb
-2014
De
c-2
014
Oct-
2015
Manufacturing Mining
Single Family Multifamily
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Structures Equipment IP Residential Total
2012-2016
2017-2020
Source: BBVA Research, BEA & Haver Analytics
7
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Consumer on solid footing
Banks’ Income & Consumer Loans,
Year-over-year %
HH Debt-to-GDP & Financial Obligations
%
Long household deleverage cycle and strong supply-side credit
conditions supporting consumption rebound
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Ma
r-2
012
Jun-2
012
Sep-2
012
De
c-2
012
Ma
r-2
013
Jun-2
013
Sep-2
013
De
c-2
013
Ma
r-2
014
Jun-2
014
Sep-2
014
De
c-2
014
Ma
r-2
015
Jun-2
015
Sep-2
015
De
c-2
015
Ma
r-2
016
Jun-2
016
Consumer Loans Net Interest Income0
20
40
60
80
100
120
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Debt-to-GDP (rhs)
Financial Obligations
8
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Labor Markets Unemployment and Participation Rate %
Nonfarm Payrolls Cumulative % change, Index to January
Part time/full time & Long-term Unemployment
Source: BBVA Research & Haver
Conflicting labor force indicators
generate noise around full
employment and remaining
economic slack debate
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
90 91 93 95 96 98 00 01 03 05 06 08 10 11 13 15 16
Share 27wks+
Part-time/Full-time(rhs)
62
63
64
65
66
67
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
UR Part Rate
100
100.5
101
101.5
102
102.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 2015 2016 2017*
*Figure based on 2017 payroll forecast
9
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Labor market at full employment
Employment Growth
Year-over-year %
Unemployment Rate Gap
UR-NAIRU
Boosting employment above current trend (~1.5%) could risk a
significant undershooting NAIRU
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Ja
n-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Jul-08
Se
p-0
9
No
v-1
0
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
9
Ma
r-2
0
-3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5
Ja
n-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Ju
l-0
8
Se
p-0
9
No
v-1
0
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
9
Ma
r-2
0
Source: BBVA Research , BLS & CBO
10
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Inflation
Consumer Inflation
Year-over-year %
Contribution to CPI
Relative importance & 12-month % change
Inflation pressures building with rising energy prices, tightening labor
market and expectations of fiscal expansion
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
PCE Expectations Core CPI TrimedMean*
Today 6 months ago One year ago
Source: BBVA Research, BEA, BLS & Dallas Fed
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Comm. ex
Food/Energy
Food
Rent
Energy
Med
Services
Edu &
Comm.
Services
Trans.
Services
Other
Services
OER
11
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Fed next move in June Fed Funds: FOMC vs. Futures Curve %
Probability of at Least One Rate Hike %
FOMC Appropriate pace of policy firming
Median %, last release
Rotation of voting members implies
a slightly more dovish FOMC.
Expecting Fed to maintain its
gradual tightening pace
Source: BBVA Research, FRB, Bloomberg & Haver
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Oct-
16
Ja
n-1
7
Apr-
17
Ju
l-1
7
Oct-
17
Ja
n-1
8
Apr-
18
Ju
l-1
8
Oct-
18
Ja
n-1
9
Apr-
19
Ju
l-1
9
Futures (Pre-Election) FOMC
Futures (Post-Election) Futures (Jan-2017)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 LongerTerm
Sep-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 w/ rotation bias 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jul-16 Aug-16Aug-16Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16Nov-16Dec-16 Jan-17
Feb. Meeting Mar. Meeting
May Meeting Jun. Meeting
12
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
U.S. Outlook
U.S. GDP Growth %,
Growth to recover to moderate pace in 2017
Pressures from weak investment fading
Upturn in Oil & Gas
Despite labor market deceleration,
consumption to hold steady
Strong dollar to weigh on exports
Fed gradual tightening cycle to generate
headwinds
Near term risks include weak global demand,
political instability in Europe, disorderly
correction in China, emerging market
vulnerabilities (Mexico)
Source: BBVA Research
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 '17-'20 LTModelProj
13
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Uncertainties in Trump presidency Broad-based change, entitlement reform and fiscal conservatism?
• $1tn over 10 years • Revenue neutral? • Appetite for private-public partnerships?
Infrastructure
• Impact of tax cuts on marginal propensity to consume?
• Tax break for investors willing to lend to state and local
• Border tax, 10% tax on retained foreign earnings, tariffs?
Tax
• Reassess NAFTA; symbolic or withdrawal?
• China’s currency policy; hard or soft stance?
• Kill TPP and make TTIP more difficult
Trade
• Repeal Obama’s executive orders
• Focus on border security; virtual or physical wall?
• Mass deportations?
Immigration
• Repeal ACA; replace it with what?
• EPA, Dodd-Frank, FCC, DOL
• Streamlined and simplified regulations?
Deregulation
Who is Trump?
• Face Value?
• Traditional Republican?
• Populist?
• Disruptor?
• Twitterer-in-chief?
14
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Uncertainties: Trumponomics
Potential Impact from Trump Policy Proposals
Central tendency, %
Magnitude, mix and timing of policy initiatives uncertain, but current
proposals imply stronger growth
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
High Probability
Medium Probability
Low Probability
Survey: Trump most likely actions
0 25 50 75 100
Cut Taxes
Deport 2-3M
Exit NAFTA
Tariffs China
Border wall
Clinton Probe
Most Likely
Highly likely
Likely
Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg & WSJ
15
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Uncertainties: fiscal policy
Trump Plan: Cumulative Debt Increase (% GDP) GOP Plan: Cumulative Debt Increase (% GDP)
Trump Plan: Annual Revenue Loss (% GDP) GOP Plan: Annual Revenue Loss (% GDP)
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
0
5
10
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
Excluding macroeconomic effects. Source: BBVA Research and TCP
16
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Uncertainties: FX and inflation
Headline CPI Impulse Response Functions
%
Real Exchange Rates & Exports
YoY % change
Fluctuations in the dollar could counterbalance Trump
policies
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Apr-
2013
Jul-2
013
Oct-
2013
Jan-2
014
Apr-
2014
Jul-2
014
Oct-
2014
Jan-2
015
Apr-
2015
Jul-2
015
Oct-
2015
Jan-2
016
Apr-
2016
Jul-2
016
Oct-
2016
Real Trade Weighted FX Real Exports
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Inflation Oil Prices FX Broad Weighted
Inf. Expectations Avg. Impact
Source: BBVA Research, FRB, BLS, Haver & Census
17
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Uncertainties: monetary policy
Marginal Probability of Fed Rate Increase
%
Unemployment Gap and Inflation Expectations PP, %
Implied impact of Trump policies suggest Fed will continue on it gradual
tightening path; unexpected inflation could speed up process
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
t t-1 t-2 t-3
UR Gap (Inverse) Unexpected Inflation
Actual Inflation Inflation Deviation
Source: BBVA Research, CBO & Haver Analytics
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
20
03q
2
20
04q
1
20
04q
4
20
05q
3
20
06q
2
20
07q
1
20
07q
4
20
08q
3
20
09q
2
20
10q
1
20
10q
4
20
11q
3
20
12q
2
20
13q
1
20
13q
4
20
14q
3
20
15q
2
20
16q
1
20
16q
4
Unemployment Gap(rhs) Inflaiton Expectations
18
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Scenarios
Fed Funds, % Unemployment Rate, %
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
15 16 17 18 19 20
Upside Downside Baseline
CPI, YoY % Change Real GDP, YoY % Change
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
15 16 17 18 19 20
Upside Downside Baseline
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
15 16 17 18 19 20
Upside Downside Baseline
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
15 16 17 18 19 20
Upside Downside Baseline
Source: BBVA Research
19
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Treasury yields
Treasury Yield Curve Slope
10Y-2Y, %
10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast
%
Stronger growth and inflation expectations, and greater risk appetite will
push yields higher
Scenarios 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Baseline 60% 2.5 2.68 2.96 3.25 3.35
Upside 25% 3.15 4.22 4.79 4.84
Downside 15% 1.88 1.39 1.37 1.41
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Historic BaselineDownside UpsideSPF (EOP, Nov 14) NABE (EOP, Dec 4)CBO (Yr. Avg, Dec 1) Blue Chip (Jul 19)
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Historic
Baseline
Downside
Upside
Source: BBVA Research
20
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Survey: post-election expectations
10YTN
EOP, %
Fed
EOP, %
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2017 2018
Oct Nov Dec
CPI
%
Real GDP
4Q/4Q, %
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2017 2018
Oct Nov Dec
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
2017 2018
Oct Nov Dec
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2017 2018
Oct Nov Dec
Source: BBVA Research & WSJ
21
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Recession risks fading
Only handful of energy-dependent areas remain in recession
2016 growth mirrored 1986 decoupling,
acutely impacting commodity producing
states
Texas probability of recession ~60% (3Q16)
Fading pressures on the dollar and
stronger global growth lowers risk to
manufacturers
Including mining intensive states, the
probability of recession remains below
average (13%)
Consumer-driven economies stand to
benefit
Florida: 0%
Colorado: 0%
California: 3%
State-level Recession Probability Probability of being in recession within 12-months, %
Source: BBVA Research
22
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Texas: why this time was different Production and GDP %
Unemployment Rate
%
Employment Growth Year-over-year %
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15
Production($)-to-GDP
Production(bbl)-to-GDP(2009$)
• Relative exposure low
• Dependency nearly half as large as ‘80s
• Risks contained in Major MSAs
Source: BBVA Research & Haver Analytics
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Texas DFW Houston Midland
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Apr-11 Feb-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Aug-14 Jun-15 Apr-16
North Dakota Wyoming
Texas Louisiana
23
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Oil price forecasts Upward revision to 2017 and 2018
Crude oil price forecasts*
Brent, $ per barrel, avg.
*Forecast subject to change.
Source: BBVA Research & Haver Analytics
Crude oil price forecasts*
Brent, $ per barrel, avg.
Baseline Upside Downside
2015 52.8 52.8 52.8
2016 45.2 45.2 45.2
2017 57.0 66.9 46.2
2018 58.7 75.8 36.6
2019 59.6 79.3 34.1
2020 59.6 79.3 34.1 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Actual Baseline
Upside Risk Downside Risk
24
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Texas GDP Growth
(Chained $2009)
Texas Outlook
Source: BBVA Research
4.3%
3.8% 3.8%
-0.3%
2.2%
2.8% 3.1%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2013 2014 2015 2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
Risk balance tilting to the
upside for Texas
• Maintain 2016 baseline
– -0.3% growth
– Downsides risks realized in
current oil price environment
• Baseline is for return to positive growth
in ‘17
• Oil-dependent MSAs resilient in the face
of slumping oil prices
• Steady gains in oil prices will accelerate
the recovery
• Current reversal in oil price gains, border
adjustment, balance sheet pressures on
O&G firms, dollar strengthening,
increased trade barriers, emigration
25
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Houston Economy
Industry Employment Growth
Change, annualized %
Pressures on mining and manufacturing sectors slowing, but 2nd
round effects materializing
• Houston annual pace of job
creation at 16K
• Down from 120K in Dec. 2014
• Houston UR above the U.S.
average for first time since 2006
(5.1%)
• Job losses primarily in goods
producing sectors slowing
• Home prices continue to
decelerate
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Year-over-year %2010-2015
Source: BBVA Research, BLS & Haver Analytics
26
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Houston GDP Growth
(Chained $2009)
Houston Outlook
Source: BBVA Research
5.8%
2.7%
4.6%
-0.2%
2.8%
4.2% 3.8%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2013 2014 2015 2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
Houston, we’ve found a
bottom • Petrochemicals helping to offset pressures on
upstream activity
• Bottom realized in 3Q16
• 2016: -0.2% growth
• Like Texas, growth to return in ‘17
• Long-run potential still high (~3-4%)
• Longer-run opportunities remain, as city is one of
the most attract in country despite exposure to
commodity cycles
• Reorienting to business services, healthcare and
leisure will quicken pace of recovery
• Risks include high emigration rates due to
consolidation in O&G sector, additional oil shocks
and pressures on healthcare from increased
regulation
27
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Post-Election Scenarios Post-election probability distribution implies fatter tails
Macro Scenarios*
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.0
Upside 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.7 3.5 3.2 3.0
Downside 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.5 -0.5 -0.2 1.1
UR 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3
Upside 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.3 4 4.1
Downside 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 5.4 7 6.6 5.9
CPI 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.2 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.2
Upside 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.2 2.6 3.1 3 2.6
Downside 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.2 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.8
Fed[eop] 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75
Upside 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50 2.5 3.25 3.25
Downside 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.25 0.25 0.25
10-Yr [eop] 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4
Upside 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.2 4.2 4.8 4.8
Downside 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 *Subject to revision
28
MITEF Forecasters Luncheon
Outlook & forecasts
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Real GDP (% SAAR) 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.0
Real GDP (Contribution, pp)
PCE 1.6 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5
Gross Investment 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 -0.4 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.6
Non Residential 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4
Residential 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Exports 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Imports -0.9 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8
Government -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1
Unemployment Rate (%, average) 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3
Avg. Monthly Nonfarm Payroll (K) 167 177 200 236 231 185 166 166 208 211
CPI (YoY %) 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1
Core CPI (YoY %) 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) -8.7 -6.8 -4.1 -2.8 -2.5 -3.0 -3.0 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3
Current Account (bop, % GDP) -3.0 -2.8 -2.2 -2.8 -2.4 -2.8 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.2
Fed Target Rate (%, eop) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.38 0.64 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75
Core Logic National HPI (YoY %) -2.9 4.0 9.9 6.9 5.4 5.6 5.9 4.1 4.4 4.1
10-Yr Treasury (% Yield, eop) 1.98 1.72 2.90 2.21 2.24 2.49 2.68 2.96 3.25 3.35
Brent Oil Prices (dpb, average) 94.9 94.1 97.9 93.3 48.7 43.3 54.8 56.4 57.1 57.1
MITEF Forecasters
Luncheon
January 2017
BBVA Research USA