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evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v

LÐ 34 evwl©K msL¨v 1423

evsjv‡`‡k RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi cÖv°jb:

b¨vkbvj UªvÝdvi GKvD‡›Ui cÖ‡qvM

eRjyj nK L›`Kvi*

gynv¤§` gwkDi ingvb**

1| f~wgKv

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eqm KvVv‡gvi Dci e¨vcK ¸iæZ¡v‡ivc Ki‡Qb| ‡`‡ki mßg cÂevwl©K cwiKíbvq ejv n‡q‡Q,

RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweav (demographic dividend) mn kÖgkw³‡Z bvixi AskMÖnY e„w×i my‡hvM

evsjv‡`k‡K kÖg `ÿZvi Dci †Rvi w`‡q Gme Dcv`vb‡K †`‡ki A_©‣bwZK Dbœq‡bi Kv‡R

jvMv‡bvi A‡bK eo my‡hvM G‡b w`‡q‡Q| evsjv‡`‡k mvaviYZ kÖ‡gi Mo Drcv`bkxjZv Kg

n‡q _v‡K| `ÿZv Dbœq‡b wewb‡qvM kÖg Drcv`bkxjZv e„w×i gva¨‡g cÖe„w× Z¡ivwšÍKi‡Y

evsjv‡`k‡K cÖPzi myweav cÖ`vb Ki‡e| GKBfv‡e kÖg kw³‡Z bvixi ewa©Z AskMÖnY kÖg mieivn

m¤úªmvi‡Yi gva¨‡g cÖe„w× Z¡ivwšZ Ki‡e| AwaKš‘ KvwiMwi I e„wËg~jK wkÿv I `ÿZv

e„w×g~jK cÖwkÿY cÖ`v‡bi mÿgZv e„w×i Rb¨ e¨vcK D‡`¨vM cÖ‡qvRb| G welqwUi cÖwZ h_vh_

bRi bv †`qvq Zv miKvwi wewb‡qv‡Mi evB‡i †_‡K †M‡Q| e¨w³ Lv‡Zi c„ô‡cvlKZvq ch©vß

cwigv‡Y cÖwkÿY cÖ`v‡bi eë¯’v _vKv ìKvi (mßg cÂevwl©K cwiKíbv `wjj:2016-20,c„:

47)| AwaKš‘ mßg cÂevwl©K cwiKíbvq ejv n‡q‡Q, wbf©iZv nvi Kgvq 1991 mvj †_‡K

evsjv‡`‡k RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweav jv‡fi ìRv Ly‡j †M‡Q| Z‡e G my‡hv‡Mi ìRv KZ mgq

ch©šÍ †Lvjv _vK‡e Zv ch©‡eÿYg~jK Z_¨ cÖgvY Øviv mgw_©Z nqwb| RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweav

jv‡fi mgq I cwimi wel‡q mywbw ©ó Z_¨-cÖgv‡Yi Ach©vßZv GKwU k~b¨¯’vb •Zwi K‡i‡Q|

RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweav †_‡K A_©‣bwZK mydj jv‡fi wbwg‡Ë gvbe m¤ú` I cuywR wewb‡qv‡Mi

Pvwn`v I cÖ‡qvRb wbiƒc‡Yi †ÿ‡Î bxwZwba©viK‡ì G k~b¨¯’vbwUi cÖwZ Aek¨B bRi w`‡Z n‡e|

G cÖe‡Ü b¨vkbvj UªvÝdvi GKvD›U (GbwUG) c×wZ eënvi K‡i G M¨vc c~i‡Yi cÖ‡Póv †bqv

n‡q‡Q, hv evsjv‡`‡k ‡hb RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweav wbiƒcY ev g~j¨vq‡bi D‡`¨vM †bqv nq Zv

wb‡ ©k K‡i|

G cÖe‡Üi D‡Ïk¨ n‡”Q evsjv‡`‡k RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi cÖ_g ch©vq g~j¨vqb Kiv|

cÖeÜwU ‡gvU 8wU Aby‡”Q‡` wef³| cÖ_g Aby‡”Q‡` f~wgKvi ci wØZxq Aby‡”Q‡` cÖvmw½K mgxÿv

* Aa¨vcK, A_©bxwZ wefvM, XvKv wek¦we`¨vjq, XvKv, evsjv‡`k||

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2

ev iPbv ch©v‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| Z…Zxq Aby‡”Q‡` evsjv‡`‡ki RbmsL¨vi KvVv‡gvi mnvqZvq

RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K cwieZ©b ev iƒcvšÍi (demographic transition) Av‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q|

PZz_© Aby‡”Q‡` evsjv‡`‡ki A_©‣bwZK KvVv‡gv QvovI Kg©ms¯’vb ev Kg©wb‡qvRb KvVv‡gvi Ici

Av‡jvKcvZ Kiv n‡q‡Q| cieZ©x `y‡Uv Aby‡”Q‡` (cÂg I lô) h_vµ‡g M‡elYv c×wZ Ges

DcvË I KwZcq wel‡qi msÁv Av‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q | evsjv‡`k GbwUG †_‡K cÖvß djvdj

(‡hgb A_©‣bwZK RxebPµ I RxebPµ NvUwZ cÖv°j‡bi (estimation) cvkvcvwk B‡KvbwgK

mv‡cvU© †iwkI I RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi cÖ_g ch©v‡qi cÖv°jb) Av‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q cÖe‡Üi

mßg Aby‡”Q‡`| †kl Aby‡”Q‡` Dcmsnvixq gšÍe¨ ¯’vb †c‡q‡Q|

2| cÖvmw½K mgxÿvmg~‡ni ch©v‡jvPbv

RbwgwZK aib (demographic pattern) I A_©bxwZi Dci Zv‡ì cÖfve welqK cÖPzi

M‡elbvg~jK iPbv jÿ Kiv hvq| Z‡e A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w× I Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvóxi Abycv‡Zi

g‡a¨Kvi m¤úK© ev †hvMm~Î (connection) wel‡q iPbv LyeB bMY¨| eøyg, K¨vwbs I g¨vjvwb

(2000) Ges g¨vmb (2001) e‡j‡Qb, c~e© Gwkqvi D”PgvÎvi I Cl©Yxq A_©‣bwZK mvdj¨

eûjvs‡k D³ AÂ‡ji eqm KvVv‡gvi mv‡_ mswkøó| eøyg, K¨vwbs I g¨vm‡bi mgxÿvi Dci wfwË

K‡i cwiPvwjZ mgxÿvmg~‡n gv_vwcQz Av‡qi `xN©‡gqvw` cÖe„w× wbiƒcY I g~j¨vq‡b †gvU

RbmsL¨v-Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi AbycvZ, kÖg Drcv`bkxjZv,gvbe cuywR, mÂq nvi, evwYR¨ bxwZ

mn Ab¨vb¨ PjK eëüZ n‡q‡Q| AwaKš‘ D”PgvÎvi A_©‣bwZK mvdj¨ I Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi

Abycv‡Zi g‡a¨Kvi mswkøóZv eqm KvVv‡gvi cwieZ©b‡K AšÍf©y³ (capture) K‡i| Gme M‡elYv

djvdj n‡jv A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×i Dci RbwgwZK cwieZ©‡bi abvZœK cÖfve wel‡q ch©‡eÿYg~jK

Z_¨-cÖgvY (evidence) |

eøyg I K¨vwbs (2004) µm Kvw›Uª c¨v‡bj WvUv (1965-1995) eënvi K‡i A_©‣bwZK

cÖe„w× I Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôx e„w×i nv‡ii g‡a¨ Zvrch©c~Y© abvZœK m¤úK© †`wL‡q‡Qb| AwaKš‘

Zviv aviYv K‡ib †h, RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi m¤¢vebv †mme †`‡k ¯xK…Z †hme †`k A_©‣bwZK

Dbœqb ev AMÖMwZi GKUv †ÿÎ cÖ`vb K‡i| g¨vmb (2006) cÖ¯Íve K‡ib †h, Gwkqv I cÖkvšÍ

gnvmvMixq AÂjfz³ cÖwZwU †`k‡K RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi cÖ_g ch©vq †_‡K mydj jv‡fi

wbwg‡Ë KvR Kiv cÖ‡qvRb|

GKBfv‡e Ab¨vb¨ mgxÿvq (d«vB I g¨vmb 1982, wnwMbm 1998, †Kwj I w¯‥wgWU 1996)

RbwgwZK KvVv‡gv I cÖavb A_©‣©bwZK PjKmg ~‡ni RvZxq mvgwMÖK (aggregate) nvi (†hgb

mÂq, Drcv`b, Drcv`bkxjZv) Gi g‡a¨ BwZevPK ms‡køl ev m¤^Ü †`L‡Z †c‡q‡Qb| cvimb

(2002) gvwK©b hy³iv‡óªi †ÿ‡Î RbwgwZK KvVv‡gv Ges Drcv`b (output) I Drcv`bkxjZvi

g‡a¨ BwZevPK ms‡køl ev m¤úK© †`L‡Z †c‡q‡Qb| eøyg, K¨vwbs I †mwfjv (2002) Gi g‡Z,

L›`Kvi I ingvb: evsjv‡`‡k RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi cÖv°jb: b¨vkbvj UªvÝdvi GKvD‡›Ui cÖ‡qvM

3

Avwd«Kvi gWv‡iUwj `ye©j A_©‣bwZK cvidi‡gÝ Gi mv‡_ RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K cwieZ©b †_‡K

DrmvwiZ ivB‡Uqvm mv‡K©‡ji Abycw¯’wZi ms‡hvM _vK‡Z cv‡i|

ivRb I myeªv‡gwbqvg (2008) †K AbymiY K‡i †Møvevj gwbUwis wi‡cvU© (2015) A_©‣bwZK

cÖe„w× I mÂ‡qi Dci Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi nv‡ii cwieZ©‡bi g‡a¨ KviwYK (causal) m¤úK©

wbiƒc‡Y †Rbv‡ijvBRW †g_W Ae †gv‡g›Um (wRGgGg) cÖv°jb ev wnmve c×wZ e¨envi

K‡ib, hv 1950-2010 mgqKv‡ji Rb¨ 127wU †`‡ki 1,796wU ch©‡eÿY AšÍf©y³ K‡i| wewfbœ

†¯úwkwd‡Kk‡bi AvIZvq Kiv djvdj †_‡K †`Lv †M‡Q, gv_vwcQz wRwWwc cÖe„w× I mÂ‡qi

Dci Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi nvi e„w×i BwZevPK cÖfve i‡q‡Q | AviI mywbw ©ó K‡i ej‡j, Kg©ÿg

Rb‡Mvôxi nvi GK kZvsk c‡q›U e„w× †c‡j gv_vwcQz wRwWwc 1.1 †_‡K 2 kZvsk c‡q›U e„w×

cv‡e e‡j wnmve Kiv n‡q‡Q| G wnmve †_‡K AviI †`Lv †M‡Q, Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi nvi 1

kZvsk c‡q›U e„w×i mv‡_ mÂ‡qi nvi 0.6 †_‡K 0.8 kZvsk c‡q›U e„w× cvIqvi †hvMm~Î

i‡q‡Q|

3| evsjv‡`‡ki RbwgwZK cwieZ©b

RbwgwZK cwieZ©b ej‡Z D”P cÖRbb I D”P g„Zz¨ nv‡ii mvg¨ve¯’v †_‡K wb¤œ cÖRbb I wb¤œ

g„Zz¨nv‡ii w`‡K Mgb‡K †evSvq| RbwgwZK cwieZ©‡bi cÖv_wgK ch©v‡q cÖ_‡g g„Zz¨ nvi n«vm

cvq, we‡kl K‡i wkï g„Zz¨ nvi (eøyg cÖgyL 2000:258)| g„Zz¨ nvi n«vm cvIqvq RbmsL¨vi Bqs

†Kvn‡U©i †eu‡P _vKvi D”P m¤¢vebv ‡`Lv †`q| Gi d‡j cÖRbb welqK wm×všÍ MÖn‡Yi †ÿ‡Î

GKwU mvR© †`Lv ‡`q| wb¤œ g„Zz¨ nv‡ii Kvi‡Y wkï wbf©iZv nvi e„w× cvq Ges RbmsL¨v wb¤œgyLx

nq| RbmsL¨v e„w×i nvi n«vm cvq Ges RbmsL¨vi Mo eqm e„w× †c‡Z ïiæ K‡i| e„nr †KvnU©

Kg©RM‡Z cÖ‡ek Ki‡Z ïiæ Kivq †gvU RbmsL¨vi Zzjbvq Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi msL¨v e„w× †c‡Z

_v‡K Ges wkï wbf©iZv nvi n«vm cvq| RbwgwZK cwieZ©‡bi †kl ch©v‡qi •ewkó¨ n‡jv e„nr

†KvnU© Aemi †bqvi eq‡m †cu․Qvq eq¯‥ Rb‡Mvóxi AvKvi e„w× cvq Ges eq¯‥ †jvK‡`i

wbf©ikxjZv e„w× cvq|

Av`g ïgvix 2011 Abymv‡i evsjv‡`‡ki †gvU RbmsL¨v 149.8 wgwjqb hv 2001 †_‡K

2011 mv‡ji g‡a¨ 25.4 wgwjqb e„w× cvq| 2030 mvj bvMv` †`‡ki †gvU RbmsL¨v 185.1

wgwjq‡b uvov‡e e‡j cÖ‡ÿcY Kiv n‡q‡Q Avi Zv n‡e g~jZ `y‡Uv Kvi‡Y (1) Rb¥Kv‡j Rxeb

cÖZ¨vkv (cyiæl I gwnjv Df‡qi) e„w× (2005 I 2010 mv‡ji 67.8 I 69.1 eQi †_‡K 2025

I 2030 mv‡j h_vµ‡g 74.4 I 76.6 eQi) Ges (2) †gvU cÖRbb nvi n«vm (2.2 †_‡K K‡g

1.83)|


4

wPÎ 1-G evsjv‡`‡ki RbwgwZK I eqm KvVv‡gvi cwieZ©b †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| wPÎ †_‡K 15

eQ‡ii Kg eqmx Rb‡Mvôxi †ÿ‡Î eqm KvVv‡gvi Dci RbwgwZK cwieZ©‡bi cÖfve jÿ Kiv

hvq KviY RbmsL¨vi nvi 1970 mv‡ji 44.7 kZvsk †_‡K K‡g 2010 mv‡j 31.7 kZvsk

n‡q‡Q Ges Zv AviI K‡g 2050 mv‡j 17.3 kZvs‡k ùvov‡e| GKBfv‡e 20 eQ‡ii Kg eqmx

RbmsL¨vi nvi 1970 mv‡ji 54.7 kZvsk †_‡K K‡g 2010 mv‡j 42.2 kZvs‡k Ges 2050

mv‡j 23.5 kZvs‡k uvov‡e| 20 eQ‡ii Kg eqmx RbmsL¨vi nvi e¨vcKfv‡e K‡g hvIqvi

KviY n‡jv Kg©ÿg RbmsL¨vi nvi e¨vcKfv‡e e„w× cvIqv--1970 mv‡ji 41.9 kZvsk †_‡K

e„w× †c‡q 2010 mv‡j 53.2 kZvs‡k Ges 2050 mv‡j 60.3 kZvs‡k ùvov‡e|

wPÎ 1: evsjv‡`‡ki RbwgwZK I eqm KvVv‡gvi cwieZ©b

wPÎ 2 Abymv‡i 1970 mvj †_‡K 1990 `k‡Ki gvSvgvwS mg‡qi g‡a¨ evwl©K RbmsL¨v

e„w×i nvi wQj 2 kZvs‡ki †ewk| G mgqKv‡j cÖwZ nvRv‡i Rb¥ nvi wQj 35 R‡bi Dc‡i Ges

g„Zz¨ nvi µgvš‡q K‡g‡Q| cÿvšÍ‡i 1990 `k‡Ki †kl w`K †_‡K mv¤úªwZKKvj ch©šÍ evwl©K

G·‡cv‡bwÝqvj RbmsL¨v e„w×i nvi 2 kZvs‡ki wb‡P hLb Rb¥ I g„Zz¨ nvi DfqwUB µgvš‡q

Kg‡Q| RbmsL¨v e„w×i nvi wKQzUv axiMwZi n«vm wb‡`©k Ki‡Q Z_vwc 1970 I 1975 mv‡ji

g‡a¨ RbmsL¨vi e„w×i nv‡ii AvKw¯§K e„nr cZb we‡kølY Kiv cÖ‡qvRb| Kvwj ©b cÖgyL (1976)

Gi g‡Z Gi KviY n‡jv ~’’j g„Zz¨ nv‡ii jÿYxq IVvbvgv Ges 1971 mv‡j hyMcr msNwUZ

¯^vaxbZv hy×| e¯‘Z cÖwZ nvRv‡i g„Zzï nvi `ªæZ EaŸ©Mvgx n‡q 210 R‡b †cu․‡Q, 5 eQ‡ii Mo

†_‡K 37 kZvsk †ewk| 1972-73 mv‡j bvMv` GKUv D‡jøL‡hvM¨ wiKfvix cwijwÿZ nq

(†hgb cÖwZ nvRv‡i 162 Rb) hwÌ G nvi ¯vfvweK ch©v‡qi Dc‡i _v‡K| c~Y© wiKfvix jÿ

Kiv hvq ¯^vaxbZvi wZb eQi ci A_©vr 1973-74 mv‡j| 1974-75 mgqKv‡j (G mgq

gwnjv cyiæl

2010 mv‡j RbmsL¨v 2030 mv‡j RbmsL¨v 2050 mv‡j RbmsL¨v


5

Lv`¨ ª‡e¨i AvKvkPz¤^x e„w× jÿ Kiv hvq) g„Zz¨ nvi e„w× cvq I cÖRbb nvi K‡g hvq (†`Lyb

†P․a~ix I Kvwj©b 1978)| ¯’‚j g„Zz¨ nvi I beRvZK (infant) g„Zz¨ nvi 1974 mv‡j `ªæZ e„w×

cvq Ges 1975 mv‡jI D‡”P Ae¯’vb K‡i|

‡`Lv †M‡Q, evsjv‡`‡ki RbmsL¨vi eqm KvVv‡gv‡Z A ~i fwel¨‡Z D‡jøL‡hvM¨ cwieZ©b

NU‡e hvi d‡j wkï Rb‡Mvôxi msL¨v Kg‡e Ges eq¯‥ I Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi msL¨v e„w× cv‡e|

wPÎ 2: evsjv‡`‡k ~’’j Rb¥ nvi, ’’ ~j g„Zz¨ nvi I RbmsL¨v e„w×i nvi

4| A_©‰bwZK KvVv‡gv, Kg©ms ’vb I kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY

evsjv‡`‡ki A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×i aviv mviwY 1ÑG †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| †`Lv †M‡Q, lv‡Ui `k‡K

ZrKvjxb c~e© cvwK¯Ív‡bi A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w× n‡q‡Q evwl©K M‡o cÖvq 4 kZvsk nv‡i| G A_©bxwZi

GK cÂgvsk 1971 mv‡ji hy×Kv‡j aŸsm n‡q hvq| G aK‡ji Kvi‡Y ¯^vaxbZvi cieZ©x

`y`k‡K gš’i MwZi A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×i m¤§yLxb nq| 1990 mvj †_‡K A_©bxwZi MwZ Z¡ivwšZ

nq Ges A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×i nvi 1990 `k‡Ki cÖ_gv‡a© 4 kZvs‡ki Dc‡i ‡cu․‡Q| 1990

`k‡Ki gvSvgvwS mg‡qi ci †_‡K cÖe„w×i nvi 5 kZvs‡ki Dc‡i †cu․‡Q| MZ `k‡K cÖe„w×i

nvi M‡o 6 kZvs‡ki KvQvKvwQ Ae¯’vb K‡i|

LvZwfwËK A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w× I A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gv MZ y`k‡K D‡jøL‡hvM¨fv‡e cwiewZ©Z

n‡q‡Q (mviwY 1)| K…wl Lv‡Zi cÖe„w×i nvi MZ `y`k‡K wb¤œ †_‡K gvSvwi ch©v‡q †_‡K‡Q|

g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis Lv‡Z D‡jøL‡hvM¨ cÖe„w× n‡q‡Q| MZ y`k‡K †mev Lv‡Zi cÖe„w× nvi 5-6

kZvs‡k w¯’i i‡q‡Q|

-0.80

-0.40

0.00

0.40

0.80

1.20

1.60

2.00

2.40

2.80

3.20

3.60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950-1955

1960-1965

1970-1975

1980-1985

1990-1995

2000-2005

2010-2015

2020-2025

2030-2035

2040-2045

2050-2055

2060-2065

2070-2075

2080-2085

2090-2095

RbmsL¨v e

„w×i n

vi

cÖwZ

nvR

v‡i n

vi

Crude birth rate Crude death rate Population growth rate¯’‚j Rb¥ nvi ¯’‚j g„Zz¨ nvi RbmsL¨v e„w×i nvi


6

mviwY 1: evwl©K wRwWwc cÖe„w×i nvi

eQi cÖavb LvZ †f‡` wRwWwc cÖe„w× nvi (% eQi) wRwWwc cÖe„w× (%)

K…wl g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis ‡mev

1960-70 (Mo) 3.9

1972-90 (Mo) 3.6

1990-95(Mo) 1.55 8.08 4.43 4.15

1995-00(Mo) 4.88 5.59 5.29 5.23

2000-01 3.14 6.87 6.00 5.41

2001-02 0.01 5.42 5.93 4.36

2002-03 3.08 6.78 5.83 5.33

2003-04 4.09 7.13 6.13 5.82

2004-05 2.21 8.20 6.72 5.93

2005-06 4.94 10.67 6.72 7.02

2006-07 4.56 9.63 6.80 6.83

2007-08 3.21 7.32 6.38 5.88

2008-09 4.12 6.88 6.22 5.90

2009-10 5.24 6.65 6.42 6.22

2010-11 5.13 9.14 6.27 6.59

2011-12 3.11 9.26 6.37 6.28

2012-13 2.17 9.45 6.17 6.06

Drm: weweGm, wek¦e¨vsK wnmve|

A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gvMZ iƒcvšÍi Dbœqbkxj †`‡ki ÷vBjvBRW cwimsL¨v‡bi mv‡_ Zvj †i‡L

n‡q‡Q (wPÎ 3)| wRwWwc‡Z K…wli Ae`vb 1972 mv‡ji 50 kZvsk †_‡K K‡g 2014 mv‡j 16

kZvsk n‡q‡Q Ges Kg©ms¯’v‡bi †ÿ‡Î K…wli Ae`vb 75 kZvsk †_‡K K‡g 45 kZvsk n‡q‡Q|

wb¤œ gvSvwi Av‡qi †`‡ki (GjGgAvBwm) M‡oi mv‡_ Zzjbv Ki‡j evsjv‡`‡ki A_©bxwZi

KvVv‡gvMZ iƒcvšÍ‡ii †ÿ‡Î y‡Uv we‡kl •ewkó¨ jÿ Kiv hvq| 1980 mvj †_‡K evsjv‡`‡k

wRwWwc‡Z g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis Lv‡Zi Ae`vb evo‡Q| 2014 mv‡j wRwWwc‡Z g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis Lv‡Zi

Ae`vb GjGgAvBwmfz³ †`k¸‡jvi 15 kZvs‡ki wecix‡Z 20 kZvs‡k uvwo‡q‡Q|

evsjv‡`‡ki A_©‣bwZK Kg©Kv‡Ði e„n`vskB †mev LvZfz³ (†ewki fvMB AcÖvwZôvwbK)| 1972

mv‡j ‡hLv‡b †mev Lv‡Zi Ask wQj 45 kZvsk, 2014 mv‡j Zv e„w× †c‡q 50 kZvs‡k DbœxZ

nq|


7

K…wl

wkí

†mev

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

FY80FY 82FY 84FY86FY 88FY 90FY 92FY 94FY 96FY 98FY 00FY 02FY 04FY 06FY 11FY 13

wRwW

wc (

%)

wPÎ 3: evsjv‡`‡ki A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gvMZ iƒcvšÍi

Drm : evsjv‡`k cwimsL¨vb ey¨‡iv (weweGm)|

KvVv‡gvMZ iƒcvšÍi wKQzUv n‡jI Kg©ms¯’vb KvVv‡gv‡K cÖfvweZ K‡i‡Q| mviwY 2-G e„nr

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†`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q (1999-00,2002-03, 2005-06 I 2010)| 1999-00 mv‡j K…wl‡Z

Kg©ms¯’v‡bi nvi wQj 51.1 kZvsk, hv mvgvb¨ K‡g 2002 mv‡j 52.2 kZvs‡k ùvovq| Zvici

†_‡K Kg©ms¯’v‡b K…wli Ae`vb µgk K‡g‡Q| Zv m‡Ë¡I 2010 mv‡j †`‡ki †gvU Kg©ms¯’v‡b

K…wli Ae`vb wQj 47.5 kZvsk|

mviwY 2: e„nr A_©‰bwZK LvZ †f‡` 15 eQi I Z ~aŸ© eqmx K‡g© wb‡qvwRZ e¨w³‡ì kZKiv nvi

e„nr LvZ 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2010

K…wl 51.06 52.15 48.21 47.51

AK…wl 48.94 47.85 51.79 52.49

g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 9.53 9.75 10.95 12.34

Ab¨vb¨ wkí 3.09 3.63 3.37 4.97

‡mev 36.32 34.47 37.47 35.17

Drm: kÖgkw³ Rwic 1999-00,2002-03, 2005-06 I 2010|

AK…wl Lv‡Z K…wl Lv‡Zi wecixZ cÖeYZv cwijwÿZ nq| AK…wl Lv‡Z 15 eQi I Z ~aŸ©

eqmx‡ì wb‡qvR‡bi nvi 1999 mv‡ji 48.9 kZvsk †_‡K K‡g 2002 mv‡j 47.9 kZvsk

nq| 2002 mv‡ji ci †_‡K G nvi evo‡Z _v‡K Ges 2010 mv‡j Zv e„w× †c‡q 52.5 kZvsk

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80

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84

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86

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90

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92

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8

nq| g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis Gi Ae`vb 1999 †_‡K 2010 mvj ch©šÍ me eQ‡iB †e‡o‡Q †hgb 1999

mv‡ji 9.5 kZvsk †_‡K e„w× ‡c‡q 2002-03 mv‡j 9.8 kZvsk, 2005 mv‡j 11 kZvsk Ges

2010 mv‡j 12.3 kZvsk nq| Kg©ms¯’v‡b †mev Lv‡Zi Ae`v‡bi †ÿ‡Î DÌvb-cZb jÿ Kiv

†M‡jI IVvbvgvi e¨eavb wQj mvgvb¨, †hgb 35 †_‡K 37 kZvs‡ki g‡a¨| 1999 mv‡j

Kg©ms¯’v‡b †mev Lv‡Zi Ae`vb wQj 36.3 kZvsk hv K‡g 2002 mv‡j 34.5 kZvsk Ges e„w×

†c‡q 2005 mv‡j 37.5 kZvsk I Avevi K‡g 2010 mv‡j 35.2 kZvsk nq| Kg©ms¯’v‡b

Ab¨vb¨ wkí Lv‡Zi Ask Kg n‡jI Zv evo‡Q| AviI mybw`©ó K‡i ej‡j, Kg©ms¯’v‡b Ab¨vb¨

wk‡íi Ae`vb 2000 mv‡ji 3.1 kZvsk †_‡K e„w× †c‡q 2003 mv‡j 3.6 kZvsk nq, hv

AviI K‡g 2005-06 mv‡j 3.4 kZvsk Ges Zv Avevi e„w× †c‡q 2010 mv‡j 5 kZvs‡k

†cu․‡Q|

evsjv‡`‡ki kÖgkw³i AskMÖn‡Yi GKwU Ab¨Zg cÖavb •ewkô¨ n‡jv kÖgkw³‡Z bvixi Kg

AskMÖnY| wPÎ 4-G kÖgkw³‡Z bvix I cyiæ‡li AskMÖnY nv‡ii †ÿ‡Î †h D‡jøL‡hvM¨ e¨eavb

i‡q‡Q Zv †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q (4 mgqKv‡j h_v 1999-00, 2002-03, 2005-06 I 2010)|

†`Lv †M‡Q, kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY 1996 mv‡ji 52 kZvsk †_‡K e„w× †c‡q 2010 mv‡j 59.3

kZvsk n‡q‡Q| G mgqKv‡j kÖgevRv‡i bvix I cyiæl kÖgkw³i AskMÖn‡Yi †ÿ‡Î GKUv

KvVv‡gvMZ cwieZ©b jÿ Kiv †M‡Q| AviI mywbw`©ó K‡i ej‡j, cyiæl kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY 1996

mv‡ji 87 kZvsk †_‡K K‡g 2010 mv‡j 82.5 kZvsk nq| Ab¨w`‡K bvix kÖgkw³i

AskMÖn‡Yi †ÿ‡Î 100 kZvsk e„w× jÿ Kiv †M‡Q: bvix kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi 1996 mv‡ji

15.8 kZvsk †_‡K e„w× †c‡q 2010 mv‡j 36 kZvsk nq| Ab¨ K_vq, 2002 mvj †_‡K

cyiæ‡li AskMÖnY nvi K‡g‡Q wKwÂr nv‡i, 1 ev 2 kZvsk c‡q›U nv‡i| 2006-2010

mgqKv‡j Zv AviI AwaK nv‡i K‡g‡Q, 4 kZvsk c‡q›U nv‡i| Ab¨w`‡K bvixi AskMÖnY nvi

e„w× cv‡”Q Ges Zv Zzjbvg~jKfv‡e AwaK nv‡i|

wPÎ 4: evsjv‡`‡k kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi (%)

Drm: kÖgkw³ Rwic 1999-00, 2002-03, 2005-06 I 2010|

36

29.2

26.1

23.9

15.8

82.5

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87.4

84

87

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9

20.2

4

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4

25.0

8

34.5

8

40.7

3

37.0

3

38.5

9

24.5

5

27.9

5

17.5

3

13.9

7

11.8

9

17.3

5

79.7

6

77.7

9

76.1

9

70.0

4

80.9

6

74.9

1

65.4

2

59.2

7

62.9

7

61.4

1 75.4

5

72.0

5

82.4

7

86.0

2

88.1

2

82.6

6

All Sector Agriculture Manufacture Service

AskMÖnY n

vi (

%)

Female Male

wPÎ 5-G A_©‣bwZK LvZ I wj½ wfwË‡Z evsjv‡`‡k kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi †`Lv‡bv

n‡q‡Q| K…wl Lv‡Z cyiæl kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi AwaK nv‡i A_©vr D‡jøL‡hvM¨ nv‡i n«vm cv‡”Q|

1999-00 mv‡ji 81 kZvsk †_‡K K‡g 2010 mv‡j 59.3 kZvsk n‡q‡Q| Ab¨w`‡K bvix

kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi evo‡Q, 1999-00 mv‡ji 19 kZvsk †_‡K e„w× †c‡q 2010 mv‡j 40

kZvsk n‡q‡Q| g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis Lv‡Z 1999 I 2003 mv‡ji g‡a¨ cyiæl kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi

cÖvq 60 kZvs‡k w¯’i wQj| Gi ci GwU e„w× †c‡q 76 kZvsk nq 2010 mv‡j n«vmgvb avivq

hvIqvi AvM ch©šÍ| bvix kÖgkw³i AskMÖn‡Yi †ÿ‡Î †Kv‡bv we‡kl aib jÿ Kiv hvqwb| bvix

kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi K‡g 24.6 kZvs‡k †c u․Qv‡bvi AvM ch©šÍ bvix kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi

wQj cÖvq 38 kZvsk Ges Zvici mvgvb¨ e„w× †c‡q 28 kZvsk nq| †mev Lv‡Z bvix kÖgkw³i

AskMÖnY me‡P‡q Kg| bvixi AskMÖnY nvi 12 †_‡K 17 kZvs‡ki g‡a¨ Ae¯’vb Ki‡Q| cyiæl

kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi memgq †ewk (83 †_‡K 88 kZvs‡ki g‡a¨ n‡q _v‡K)|

wPÎ 5: A_©‰bwZK LvZ I wj½ †f‡` evsjv‡`‡k kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY nvi (%)

Drm: kÖgkw³ Rwic 1999-00, 2002-03, 2005-06 I 2010|

wPÎ 6-G cÖvwZôvwbK I AcÖvwZôvwbK Drm †f‡` Kg©ms¯’vb nvi †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| evsjv‡`‡k

HwZn¨MZfv‡e AcÖvwZôvwbK Lv‡Z Kg©ms¯’vb ev Kg©wb‡qvR‡bi nvi †ewk n‡q _v‡K| 2002

mvj †_‡K 2006 mv‡ji g‡a¨ 75 kZvs‡ki †ewk kÖwgK AcÖvwZôvwbK Lv‡Z wb‡qvwRZ wQj|

evsjv‡`‡k 2006 I 2010 mv‡ji g‡a¨ Kg©ms¯’v‡bi e¨vcK BbdigvjvB‡Rkb ev

AcÖvwZôvbxKiY n‡q‡Q| AcÖvwZôvwbK Lv‡Z Kg©ms¯’vb nvi 2006 mv‡ji 79 kZvsk †_‡K

e„w× †c‡q 2010 mv‡j cÖvq 87 kZvs‡k DbœxZ nq|

mKj LvZ K…wl g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis ‡mev

bvix cyiæl


10

20.8 21.512.6

79.2 78.587.4

2002-03 2005-06 2010

kZ

Kiv nvi

Formal Sector Informal Sector

wPÎ 6: cÖvwZôvwbK I AcÖvwZôvwbK LvZ †f‡` 15 I Z`~aŸ© eqmx wb‡qvwRZ e¨w³‡`i kZKiv nvi (%)

Drm: kÖgkw³ Rwic 2002-03, 2005-06 I 2010|

wPÎ 7-G cÖvwZôvwbK I AcÖvwZôvwbK LvZ Ges wj½ wfwË‡Z KwZcq wbe©vwPZ eQ‡ii Rb¨

Kg©ms¯’vb nvi †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| 2002-03 mv‡j cÖvwZôvwbK I AcÖvwZôvwbK Dfq Lv‡Z bvix I

cyiæl Kg©ms¯’vb nvi GKB iKg wQj| AcÖvwZôvwbK Lv‡Z cyiæl Kg©ms¯’vb nvi wQj 78.8

kZvsk Ges bvix Kg©ms¯’vb nvi wQj 79.8 kZvsk| Zvici †_‡K AcÖvwZôvwbK Lv‡Z bvix

Kg©ms¯’vb nvi e„w× †c‡q‡Q--2002 †_‡K 2006 mv‡ji g‡a¨ cÖvq 6 kZvsk c‡q›U Ges 2002

‡_‡K 2010 mv‡ji g‡a¨ cÖvq 12 kZvsk c‡q›U| cÖvwZôvwbK Lv‡Z bvix Kg©ms¯’vb nvi K‡g‡Q|

wPÎ 7: LvZ I wj½ †f‡` 15 I Z ~aŸ© eqmx wb‡qvwRZ e¨w³‡`i kZKiv nvi

Drm: kÖgkw³ Rwic 2002-03, 2005-06 I 2010|

cÖvwZôvwbK LvZ AcÖvwZôvwbK LvZ

AcÖvwZôvwbK cyiæl bvix cÖvwZôvwbK


11

5| M‡elYv c×wZ

5.1| b¨vkbvj UªvÝdvi GKvD›U I †Rbv‡ikbvj A_©bxwZ

b¨vkbvj UªvÝdvi GKvD›Um GKwU †`‡ki Awaevmx‡ì Kv‡Q I Awaevmx‡ì KvQ †_‡K cÖvß

A_©‣bwZK cÖev‡ni (economic flows) weeiY cÖ`vb K‡i| G wnmve e¨vcKwfwËK n‡q _v‡K

‡Kbbv ªe¨ I †mevi Drcv`b †_‡K RvZ mKj ai‡bi A_©‣bwZK cÖevn wnmv‡ei AšÍfz©³

_v‡K| ‡gvU g~j¨gvb RvZxq wnmv‡e cÖvß g~j¨gv‡bi mv‡_ m½wZc~Y© n‡q _v‡K| GbwUG

†Rbv‡ikbvj A_©bxwZi Dci ¸iæZ¡v‡ivc mn Gi cÖavb •ewkó¨¸‡jv‡K Zz‡j a‡i: A_©‣bwZK

RxebPµ I eqm B›Uvi‡Rbv‡ikbvj UªvÝdvi I G‡m‡Ui Dci wbf©i K‡i wiG‡jv‡Kkb AR©b

Kiv nq |

RxebPµ NvUwZ wnmve Kivi GKwU we‡kølYg~jK KvVv‡gv n‡jv GbwUG| RxebPµ NvUwZ

n‡jv †fvM e¨q †_‡K kÖÖg Avq we‡qvM K‡i hv cvIqv hvq Zv| e¨w³K ‡cÖwÿZ †_‡K GKUv

A_©bxwZ‡Z †fv‡Mi AšÍf©y³ n‡jv miKvwi c„ô‡cvlKZvq ¯v¯’¨‡mev, wkÿv, `vwi`ª¨ ~ixKiY,

mvgvwRK mnvqZv I Ab¨vb¨ `ªevw`, bM` ev `ª‡e¨, BZ¨vwì Rb¨ M„nxZ jÿ¨wfwËK Kg©m~wP Ges

wkÿv, ¯v¯’¨‡mev, evm ’vb, Lv`¨ I Lv`¨ ewnf©~Z `ªe¨vwì Rb¨ e¨w³MZ (cvwievwiK) †fvM e¨q|

GbwUG Gi jÿ¨ n‡jv †Rbv‡ikbvj †cÖwÿZ †_‡K B‡KvbwgK ‡d¬vi cwigv‡ci Rb¨

c×wZMZ I e¨vcKwfwËK Dcv‡qi eë¯’v Kiv| ‡Rbv‡ikbvj A_©bxwZ‡K wb‡¤œv³fv‡e msÁvwqZ

Kiv n‡q‡Q:

‡Rbv‡ikbvj A_©bxwZ: (1) ªe¨ Drcv`b, †fvM, †kqvi I m¤ú` mÂq Ki‡Z cÖwZUv cÖRb¥

ev eqm MÖæc KZ…©K eëüZ mvgvwRK cÖwZôvb I A_©‣bwZK g¨vKvwbRg (2) cÖRb¥ ev eqm MÖæ‡c

A_©‣bwZK cÖevn, hv †Rbv‡ikbvj A_©bxwZi •ewkó¨ (3) G·wcøwmU I BgwcøwmU KbUªv±m hv

AvšÍ‡Rbv‡ikbvj cÖevn‡K cwiPvjbv K‡i, (4) Avq I †fv‡Mi AvšÍ‡Rbv‡ikbvj eÈb (g¨vmb I

wj 2011)|

5.2| †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡W‡Û GbwUG

RbwgwZK cwieZ©b y‡Uv Dcv‡q A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w× e„w× Ki‡Z cv‡i: cÖ_gZ, wbf©iZv

AbycvZ n«vm cvIqvq Ges †gvU RbmsL¨vi Abycv‡Z Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi msL¨v e„w× cvIqvq

Kg©ÿg eq¯‥ †jvK cÖwZ wbf©ikxj wkïi Mo msL¨vI K‡g hvq| aviYv Kiv nq, G‡Z AwZwi³

msL¨K wkï‡ì Rb¨ e¨q Kg nIqvq RxebhvÎvi gvb e„w×i my‡hvM m„wó nq| GUv n‡jv

†W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡W‡Ûi cÖ_g ch©vq| wØZxqZ, A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w× I mvwe©K Dbœqb‡K

BwZevPKfv‡e cÖfvweZ Ki‡Z †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡W‡Ûi wØZxq ch©vq †`Lv w`‡Z cv‡i| AviI

mywbw ©ó K‡i ej‡j, hLb cÖ_g wWwf‡W‡Ûi ªæZ e„w× (Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi e„w×) ¯^í †gqv‡`

e¨vcK mÂq Ges `xN©‡gqv‡` gvbe c uywR‡Z D”P wewb‡qvM I Kg©x wcQz wewb‡qvM‡K Z¡ivwšZ K‡i

ZLb wWwf‡W‡Ûi wØZxq ch©vq ïiæ nq|


12

†W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©vq m¤úwK©Z ¸iæZ¡c~Y©© cÖkœ n‡jv A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×i Dci

eqm KvVv‡gvi cÖfve| AviI mywbw`©ó K‡i ej‡j, eqm KvVv‡gv A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×i Dci wKfv‡e,

†Kb I KZUzKz cÖfve †d‡j| †gvU wbf©iZv AbycvZ n‡jv eqm KvVv‡gv‡Z cwieZ©b‡K Zz‡j aivi

GKwU Kg‡cvwRU m~PK Ges GUv eqm ‡f‡` Avq-DcvR©b I †fv‡Mi wfbœZv (variation) ‡K

cÖwZdwjZ K‡i bv| G mxgve×Zv A_©‣bwZK RxebPµ G‡cÖv‡Pi Dci wfwËkxj GbwUG†Z ~i

Kiv n‡q‡Q (g¨vmb cÖgyL 2006)|

kÖg Drcv`bkxjZv I mv‡cvU© †iwkI Gi g‡a¨ gv_vwcQz Avq wWK‡¤úvwRkb Gi gva¨‡g

we‡kølYwU ïiæ n‡q‡Q Gfv‡e:

𝑌

𝑁=

𝑌

𝐿∗𝐿

𝑁

Y Avq‡K , L kÖgkw³‡K Ges N RbmsL¨v‡K ‡evSv‡‡”Q| mv‡cvU© †iwkI 𝐿

𝑁 n‡jv wbf©iZv

†iwkI Gi 𝑁

𝐿 Gi Bbfvm©|

𝐿

𝑁 m~ÎwU‡K Kvh©Ki (effective) †fv³vi Dci Kvh©Ki Drcv`‡Ki

msL¨v wn‡m‡e e¨vL¨v Kiv †h‡Z cv‡i| e„w× A‡_© mgxKiYwU eY©bv K‡i †h:

𝑔𝑟 𝑌

𝑁 = 𝑔𝑟

𝑌

𝐿 + 𝑔𝑟

𝐿

𝑁

Dc‡iv³ mgxKiYwU wb‡ ©k K‡i †h, gv_vwcQz Av‡qii cÖe„w× n‡jv Drcv`bkxjZv e„w× I

mv‡cvU© †iwkI e„w×i mgwó ev †hvMdj| GB mgxKiY e¨vL¨v (construes) K‡i eqm KvVv‡gv

†Kb mv‡cvU© †iwkI Gi gva¨‡g †MÖv_ ev cÖe„w×‡K cÖfvweZ Ki‡Z cv‡i|

eqm KvVv‡gv I A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×i g‡a¨Kvi ms‡hvM ev wjsK we‡kølY ïiæ Kivi Av‡iKUv

c‡q›U n‡jv gv_vwcQy †fvM ev KbRvgkb Gi wWKg‡cvwRkb: 𝐶(𝑡)

𝑁(𝑡)= 𝑐 𝑡 ∗

𝑌 𝑡

𝐿 𝑡 ∗

𝐿(𝑡)

𝑁(𝑡);

‡hLv‡b 𝑐 𝑡 =𝐶 𝑡

𝑌 𝑡 n‡jv Mo †fvM cÖeYZv ev †fvM nvi| cÖe„w× A‡_© mgxKiYwU `uvovq G

iKg 𝑔𝑟 𝐶 𝑡

𝑁 𝑡 = 𝑔𝑟 𝑐 𝑡 + 𝑔𝑟

𝑌 𝑡

𝐿 𝑡 + 𝑔𝑟

𝐿 𝑡

𝑁 𝑡 gv‡b gv_vwcQz ‡fvM e„w× n‡jv

‡fvM e„w×i nvi (mÂq nv‡ii mv‡_ hy³), Drcv`bkxjZv e„w× I mv‡cvU© †iwkI e„w×i mgwó ev

†hvMdj|

†W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡W‡Ûi cÖ_g ch©vq‡K msÁvwqZ Kiv n‡q‡Q A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×‡Z eqm

KvVv‡gvi Ae`vb wn‡m‡e| mywbw`©ôfv‡e ej‡j, gv_vwcQz Avq ev gv_vwcQz †fv‡M Ae`vb| Ges

GwU‡K cwigvc Kiv n‡q‡Q mv‡cvU© †iwkI Gi e„w× wn‡m‡e 𝑔𝑟 𝐿 𝑡

𝑁 𝑡 . †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ

Gi cÖ_g ch©vq Kg©x cÖwZ †fvM nvi I AvDUcyU nvi w¯’i i‡q‡Q a‡i †fv‡Mi Dci eqm

KvVv‡gvi cwieZ©‡bi cÖfve cwigvc K‡i |


13

mv‡cvU© †iwkI 𝐿

𝑁 wbY©q Kiv n‡q‡Q †fvM I kÖg Av‡qi eqm †cÖvdvBj Gi AvKvi‡K w¯’i

a‡i Gfv‡e 𝐿

𝑁=

𝛾 𝑎 ∗𝑃(𝑎 ,𝑡)

𝜑 𝑎 ∗𝑃(𝑎 ,𝑡) †hLv‡b 𝛾 n‡jv eqm †f‡` Drcv`bkxjZv Ges 𝜑 n‡jv

eqm‡f‡` ‡fvM ev cÖ‡qvRb|

6| msÁv I Z‡_ï Drm

evsjv‡`‡ki GbwUG Gi AšÍf©y³ Z‡_ï Drmmg~n n‡jv: (1) weweGm Lvbv Avq I e¨q

Rwic 2010, (2) weweGm kÖgkw³ Rwic 2010, (3) RvwZmsN RbmsL¨v Znwej

(BDGbGdwcG) Gi RbmsL¨v cÖ‡ÿcY msµvšÍ DcvË, Ges (4) weweGm cÖ¯‘ZK…Z RvZxq

wnmve eë¯’vi DcvË|

GbwUG Abymv‡i RxebPµ NvUwZ (GjwmwW) n‡jv cÖwZ eqm MÖæ‡c kÖg Av‡qi ‡P‡q †fv‡Mi

AvwaK¨ A_©vr Av‡qi †P‡q †fvM †ewk n‡q _v‡K| eqm‡f‡` GjwmwW Gi Avw_©K g~j¨ †c‡Z kÖg

Avq wbiƒcY Kiv Acwinvh©| G cÖe‡Ü kÖg Avq n‡jv Kg©x‡ì gRywi (bM` I ª‡e¨) Ges wgkÖ

Av‡qi (wbR eëmv cÖwZôvb †_‡K Avq) GKwU wba©vwiZ As‡ki mgwó ev †hvMdj| †h‡Kv‡bv

mgv‡R wkï I eq¯‥iv hv Drcv`b K‡i Zvi †P‡q †ewk †fvM K‡i| Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi †ÿ‡Î

†fv‡Mi †P‡q kÖg Avq †ewk nIqvq DØ„Ë _v‡K| Z‡e bvix‡ì †ÿ‡Î G ai‡bi wm×v‡šÍ †cu․Qv

h_v_© bvI n‡Z cv‡i| e¯‘Z GbwUG n‡jv Ggb GK ai‡bi wnmve eë¯’v hv eqm‡K AšÍf©y³

K‡i hv‡Z kÖg Avq, ‡fvM I RxebPµ NvUwZi g~j¨vqb ev wbiƒcY m½wZc~Y© nq|

wkÿv, ¯^v¯’¨ I Ab¨vb¨ e¨q Ges kÖg Av‡qi †ÿ‡Î miKvwi I †emiKvwi e¨‡qi eqm c¨vUvY©

†c‡Z miKvwi I †emiKvwi (Lvbv) †f‡` m`m¨ I BDwbU ch©v‡qi DcvË cÖ‡qvRb| G ai‡bi

Z_¨ mvaviYZ Lvbv ev‡RU Rwi‡c cvIqv hvq| evsjv‡`‡ki †ÿ‡Î Lvbv Avq I e¨q Rwic

2010 eënvi Kiv n‡q‡Q| G Rwic Ab¨vb¨ Z_¨ mn wkÿv, ¯^v¯’¨ †mev, Lv`¨, Lv`¨ ewnf©~Z, Ni

fvov, A_© avi Kiv, M„n FY,wkï fwZ©i nvi BZ¨vw` wel‡q BDwbU ch©v‡qi ¸iæZ¡c~Y© Z_¨ cÖ`vb

K‡i| G Rwic kÖgkw³ Rwic 2010 Øviv mvwcø‡g‡›UW nq hv Avevi gRywi I †eZb Ges

¯^Kg©ms¯’vbwfwËK kÖg Avq welqK gvV ch©v‡qi (micro level) Z‡_ï cÖavb Drm| 2010-11

A_©eQ‡ii Rb¨ miKvwi I †emiKvwi Lvbvi ¯^v¯’¨, wkÿv I Ab¨vb¨ welqK ‡fv‡Mi Rb¨ g¨v‡µv

GwMÖ‡MU K‡›Uªvj msKjb (compile) Kiv n‡q‡Q weweGm Gi RvZxq wnmve eë¯’vi cwimsL¨vb

†_‡K| kÖg Av‡qi Rb¨ g¨v‡µv GwMÖ‡MU K‡›Uªvj n‡jv Kg©x‡ì (Aewkó we‡k¦i Kg©x‡ì †bU

Kg‡cb‡mkb mn) ‡eZb I gRywi (compensation) I wgkÖ Av‡qi `y-Z…Zxqvs‡ki mgwó|


14

7| evsjv‡`k b¨vkbvj UªvÝdvi GKvD›U †_‡K cÖvß djvdj

evsjv‡`k GbwUG 2010 †_‡K cÖvß djvdj y‡Uv cÖavb wk‡ivbv‡g Av‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q :

(1) RxebPµ I RxebPµ NvUwZ Ges (2) A_©‣bwZK mv‡cvU© †iwkI I †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ

Gi cÖ_g ch©vq|

7.1| A_©‰bwZK RxebPµ I RxebPµ NvUwZ

wPÎ 8-G eqm †f‡` †fvM wPÎ †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| GUv n‡jv miKvwi I †emiKvwi Dfq

Lv‡Zi wkÿv, ¯v¯’¨ †mev I Ab¨vb¨ `ª‡e¨i gv_vwcQz †fv‡Mi mgwšZ wPÎ| G ‡fvM wPÎ †_‡K

eqm e„w×i cvkvcvwk †fv‡Mi `ªæZ e„w×, we‡kl K‡i ¯‥zjMvgx‡`i, cwijwÿZ nq | Pvi eQi eqm

†_‡K gv_vwcQz evwl©K †fvM ªæZ e„w× cvq Ges 19 eQi eq‡m Zv m‡e©v”P we› y‡Z (early

peak) ‡cu․‡Q (hv wkÿvq wewb‡qvM‡K wb‡ ©k K‡i) Ges 25 eQi eqm ch©šÍÍ Ae¨vnZ _v‡K|

wPÎ 8: gv_vwcQz †fvM wPÎ, 2010

Drm: ‡jLKØ‡qi wnmve, evsjv‡`k b¨vkbvj UªvÝdvi GKvD›Um (2010)|

wPÎ 9-G eqm †f‡` gv_vwcQz kÖg Av‡qi eÈb †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| G wPÎ †_‡K KZK¸‡jv

we‡kl w`K cwijwÿZ nq| GUv n‡jv GKUv Bbfvm© BD AvK…wZi Kvf© hv Kg eq‡m wb¤œ Av‡qi

m¤¢vebv‡K wb‡ ©k K‡i| cÖvq 34 eQi ch©šÍ kÖg Avq EaŸ©gyLx e„w× cvq, Zvici 35 †_‡K 49

eQ‡ii g‡a¨ ax‡i ax‡i e„w× cvq| Zvici †_‡K Avq Kg‡Z ïiæ K‡i Ges 54 eQi †_‡K eqm

e„w×i mv‡_ mv‡_ AvqI `ªæZ n«vm cvq| Aí eq‡m kÖgkw³‡Z cÖ‡ek Ges kÖg Av‡q Aí eqmx

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

Õ000 U

vKv

Age cohortseqm ‡KvnU©


15

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

Õ000 U

vKv

Age cohort

e¨w³‡ì Ae`vb mvgvb¨ nIqvi Kvi‡Y wkï kÖ‡gi Dcw¯’wZ my¯úó| eq¯‥‡ì miæ n‡q Avmv

(tapering) Avq wPÎ Zv‡ì Kg ev wb¤œ gRywii wb‡ ©kK KviY eq¯‥‡ì A‡b‡KB ¯^wb‡qvwRZ

K…lK ev AcÖvwZôvwbK Lv‡Z wb‡qvwRZ|

wPÎ 9: gv_vwcQz kÖg Avq wPÎ, 2010


wPÎ 10-G cÖwZ eqm MÖæc †f‡` NvUwZ †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| GjwmwW Gi we‡ePbvq wZbwU

Avjv`v eqm MÖæc †`L‡Z cvIqv wM‡q‡Q| y‡Uv †WwdwmU MÖæc n‡jv wkï (0-19 eQi) Ges e„×

(65 eQi I Z`~aŸ©)| Z‡e wkï‡ì †P‡q eq¯‥ MÖæ‡ci NvUwZ D”PZi n‡q _v‡K hv eq¯‥ †jvK

wewkó1 Lvbvi Zzjbvq wkïwewkó Lvbvi Av‡qi wb¤œ ¯Íi I D”P `vwi`ª¨‡K wb‡ ©k K‡i| evsjv‡`‡k

20 †_‡K 64 eQi eq¯‥‡ì wb‡q MwVZ MÖæc DØ„Ë m„wó Ki‡Q|

1Lvbv Avq I e¨q Rwic 2010 Abymv‡i 0-18 eQi eqmx wkï wewkó Lvbvq gv_v MYbv `vwi‡`ªï nvi RvZxq

ch©v‡qi Mo nvi 31.5 kZvsk †_‡K 1.7 kZvsk c‡q›U †ewk| Ab¨w`‡K lv‡UvaŸ© eqmx eq¯‥ wewkó Lvbvq gv_v

MYbv `vwi`ª¨ nvi RvZxq ch©v‡qi Mo nvi †_‡K 3.3 kZvsk c‡q›U †ewk (L›`Kvi 2014)|

eqm ‡KvnU©


16

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

Õ000 U

vKv

wPÎ 10: gv_vwcQz RxebPµ NvUwZ wPÎ, 2010


7.2| A_©‰bvwZK mv‡cvU© †iwkI Ges RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi cÖ_g ch©vq

Av‡MB ejv n‡q‡Q, cÖ_g †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ †fvM nvi I Kg©x cÖwZ AvDUcyU‡K w¯’i

a‡i †fv‡Mi Dci eqm KvVv‡gvi cwieZ©‡bi cÖfve cwigvc K‡i | B‡KvbwgK mv‡cvU© †iwkI

Gi BwZevPK e„w× †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©vq cwigvc K‡i hv‡K A_©‣bwZK cÖe„w×‡Z

eqm KvVv‡gvi Ae`vb wn‡m‡e †`Lv nq, we‡kl K‡i (GbwUG cÖv°jb †_‡K) gv_vwcQz Avq I

gv_vwcQz ‡fvM|

2006 Gi wiwfkb Abymv‡i RbmsL¨v cÖ‡ÿc‡Y RvwZmsN A‡bK¸‡jv Abygvb

(assumption) eënvi K‡i‡Q| G cÖe‡Ü RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi cÖ_g ch©vq ch©‡eÿY Kivi

j‡ÿ¨ dvwU©wjwU, ‡gvU©vwjwU, KbmUv›U dvwU©wjwU I †gvU©vwjwU Gi AvIZvq AvUwU †fwiqv›Um

QvovI AvšÍR©vwZK Awfevmb msµvšÍ AbygvbI eënvi Kiv n‡q‡Q| Gme †fwiqv›Um eënvi

Kiv n‡q‡Q †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡W‡Ûi cÖ_g ch©v‡qi ‡i‡Äi mv‡_ m‡ev©”P BGmAvi AR©‡bi

m¤¢ve¨ eQi‡K jÿ Ki‡Z| AwaKš‘ †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡W‡Ûi cÖ_g ch©v‡qi mydj jv‡f m‡e ©v”P

KZ eQi Aewkó i‡q‡Q Zv cÖv°j‡bI eënvi Kiv n‡q‡Q | BGmAvi Gi mv‡_ mswkøó

†W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©vq AvUwU RbmsL¨v cÖ‡ÿcY †fwiqv›Um Abymv‡i wPÎ 11-

13-G Dc¯’vcb Kiv n‡q‡Q|


17

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

High Variant Medium Variant Low Variant

wPÎ 11-G †`Lv hv‡”Q †h, RbmsL¨v e„w×i nv‡ii wewfbœ †fwiqv›Um Abymv‡i BGmAvi Gi

nv‡iI wfbœZv jÿ Kiv hvq| e¯‘Z D”P †fwiqv›U RbmsL¨v e„w×i mv‡_ BGmAvi BwZevPKfv‡e

2030 mvj ch©šÍ e„w× cvq| Ab¨w`‡K gvSvwi †fwiqv›U RbmsL¨v e„w×i mv‡_ GUv 2035 mvj

ch©šÍ Ges wb¤œ †fwiqv‡›Ui mv‡_ 2040 mvj ch©šÍ BwZevPKfv‡e e„w× cvq| RbmsL¨v e„w×i

wZbwU †fwiqv›Um Abymv‡i (D”P, gvSvwi I wb¤œ) evsjv‡`‡k †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g

ch©vq 2030, 2035 I 2040 mvj ch©šÍ eRvq _vKvi m¤¢vebv i‡q‡Q|

wPÎ 11: GbwUG †cÖvdvB‡ji wfwË‡Z B‡KvbwgK mv‡cvU© †iwkI, 2010


wPÎ-12 G KbmUv›U dvwU©wjwU, KbmUv›U †gvU©vwjwU I BbmUv›U wi‡cøm‡g›U †iU m¤úwK©Z

BGmAvi †fwi‡qkb‡K Zz‡j aiv n‡q‡Q| †`Lv †M‡Q, BbmUv›U wi‡cøm‡g›U †iU I KbmUv›U

dvwU©wjwU †i‡Ui †ÿ‡Î BGmAvi 2030 mvj ch©šÍ BwZevPKfv‡e e„w× cv‡e| Gi gv‡b

†W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©vq 2030 mvj ch©šÍ eRvq _vK‡e| Ab¨w`‡K KbmUv›U

†gvU©vwjwU †i‡Ui †ÿ‡Î BGmAvi 2040 mvj ch©šÍ BwZevPKfv‡e e„w× cv‡e Ges †W‡gvMÖvwdK

wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©vq 2040 mvj ch©šÍ eRvq _vK‡e|

D”P gvSvwi wb¤œ


18

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

Constant Fertility Constant Mortality Instant Replacement


Drm: ‡jLKØ‡qi wnmve, evsjv‡`k b¨vmbvj UªvÝdvi GKvD›Um (2010)|

AvDU gvB‡MÖk‡bi aibI †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©v‡qi Dci cÖfve †dj‡Z

cv‡i| wPÎ 13-G wR‡iv gvB‡MÖk‡bi Aax‡b BGmAvi c¨vUvY© †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| dvwU©wjwU-

‡gvU©vwjwU‡Z †Kv‡bv cwieZ©b bv n‡j GUv 2030 mvj ch©šÍ BwZevPKfv‡e e„w× cv‡e, hv wb‡ ©k

K‡i †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©vq 2030 mvj ch©šÍ eRvq _vK‡e| gvB‡MÖkb †iU

wR‡iv n‡j BGmAvi 2040 mvj ch©šÍ BwZevPKfv‡e e„w× cv‡e Ges †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi

cÖ_g ch©vq 2040 mvj ch©šÍ eRvq _vK‡e|



0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

No Change Zero Migration

KbmUv›U dvwU©wjwU KbmUv›U ‡gvU©vwjwU BbmUv›U wi‡cøm‡g›U

‡Kvb cwieZ©b ‡bB k~b¨ gvB‡MÖkb


19

mviwY 3-G RbmsL¨v e„w×, dvwU©wjwU-‡gvU©vwjwU nvi Ges gvB‡MÖkb nvi BZ¨vw` wewfbœ

Abygv‡bi AvIZvq †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©v‡qi cÖv°jb ms‡ÿ‡c Dc ’vcb Kiv

n‡q‡Q| Gme cÖv°jb Abymv‡i ejv †h‡Z cv‡i †h, evsjv‡`‡k †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g

ch©vq 2030 I 2040 mv‡ji g‡a¨ †Kv‡bv GKUv c‡q›U ch©šÍ Ae¨vnZ _vK‡e| Gici GwU

RbwgwZK Ae¯’v‡Z AviI cwieZ©b NUv‡e|

mviwY 3: wewfbœ RbmsL¨v cÖ‡ÿc‡Yi AvIZvq cÖv°wjZ †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g ch©vq

wewfbœ Abygv‡bi AvIZvq

RbmsL¨v

m‡ev©”P BmAvi AR©‡bi

eQi

‡W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡W‡Ûi cÖ_g ch©v‡qi

we¯Ívi

2015 †_‡K evwK

_vKv eQi

‡gvU©vwjwU Abygvb: convergence toward total fertility below replacement level

D”P †fwiqv›U 2030 1990-2030 15

ga¨ †fwiqv›U 2035 1990-2035 20

wb¤œ †fwiqv›U 2040 1990-2040 25

KbmUv›U dvwU©wjwU 2030 1990-2030 15

BbmUv›U wi‡cøm‡g›U 2030 1990-2030 15

‡gvU©vwjwU Abygvb

KbmUv›U †gvU©vwjwU 2040 1990-2040 25

KbmUv›U dvwU©wjwU I †gvU©vwjwU Abygvb

‡Kv‡bv cwieZ©b †bB 2035 1990-2035 20

AvšÍR©vwZK gvB‡MÖkb Abygvb

k~b¨ gvB‡MÖkb 2040 1990-2040 25

Drm: evsjv‡`k GbwUG 2010 Gi Dci wfwË K‡i †jLKØ‡qi wnmve|

†Møvevj gwbUwis wi‡cvU© 2015 G ‡`kxq ch©v‡q †W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ‡K mnvqZv Kivi

Rb¨ bxwZ AMÖvwaKv‡ii GKwU ZvwjKv cÖ`vb Kiv n‡q‡Q hv mviwY 4-G Zz‡j aiv n‡jv|

mviwY 4: RbwgwZK cwieZ©b †jfv‡iwRs Gi Rb¨ bxwZ AMÖvwaKvimg~n

avc ev ch©vq Bmy¨mg~n mycvwikK…Z bxwZ I †K․kjmg~n

1. wWwf‡WÛ

c~e© (Pre-

dividend)

RbwgwZK cwieZ©b

cÖRbb nvi Kgv‡Z gvbe Dbœqb

cwiw¯’wZi DbœwZ mvab

†g․wjK ¯^v¯’¨ †mevi eë¯’v †Rvi`viKi‡Yi gva¨‡g gvZ… I wkï

¯^v‡¯’ï DbœwZ mvab.

‡g‡q wkÿvi cÖmvi NUv‡bv

bvix‡ì ÿgZvqb Ges cwievi cwiKíbv †mevq bvix‡ì

cÖ‡ekvwaKvi †`qv

2. wWwf‡WÛ

Gi cÖ_g cv`

(Early-

dividend)

Kg©ms¯’vb m„wó Z¡ivwš^ZKiY

†W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi cÖ_g

ch©vq †_‡K mydj †c‡Z Kg©ÿg

Rb‡Mvôxi µgewa©&Âz As‡ki Rb¨

Drcv`bgyLx Kv‡Ri eë¯’v Kiv

KvwiMwi I e„wËg~jK cÖwkÿYmn gvbe c uywR‡Z wewb‡qvM Kiv

kÖg evRvi MwZkxjZv e„w× Kiv

bvix kÖgkw³i AskMÖnY msµvšÍ cÖwZeÜKZvmg~n `~i Kiv

mÂq I Kg© m„wô mnvqK cwi‡e‡ki kw³kvjxKiY (‡hgb

KbUªv± Gb‡dvm©‡g›U, Avw_©K AšÍf©yw³, kÖg AwaKvi msiÿY)

(Pjgvb mviwY 4)


20

avc ev ch©vq Bmy¨mg~n mycvwikK…Z bxwZ I †K․kjmg~n

3.wej¤

wWwf‡WÛ

(Late-

dividend)

Drcv`bkxjZv e„w× †UKmB Kiv

†W‡gvMÖvwdK wWwf‡WÛ Gi wØZxq

ch©vq †_‡K mydj †c‡Z cÖ‡qvRbxq

cwi‡ek m„wó Kiv Ges eq¯‥ mgm¨v

†gvKv‡ejvq cÖ ‘wZ †bqv

Drcv`bg~jK wewb‡qv‡Mi Rb¨ mÂq AvniY Ae¨vnZ ivLv

miKvwi bxwZmg~n kÖgkw³‡Z bvix I cyiæl Df‡qi AskMÖnY

DrmvwnZ K‡i Zv wbwðZ Kiv

Kj¨vY I gvbe Dbœq‡bi Rb¨ e¨q mvkÖqx I †UKmB eë¯’v

•Zwi Kiv hv PjwZ cÖ‡qvR‡bi Dci (¯^v¯’¨, wkï hZœ, wkÿv

I Amnvq I y:¯’ eq¯‥‡ì mnvqZv mn) ‡dvKvm K‡i Ges

GwRs GwM‡q hvIqvi mv‡_ †`Lv †`qv ev D™¢~Z cÖ‡qvRb

†gUv‡Z MÖnY Kiv hvq|

4. wWwf‡WÛ

DËi (Post-

dividend)

GwRs mgm¨vi mv‡_ wWwf‡WÛ

cieZ©x Awf‡hvRb

Kg©ÿg Rb‡Mvôxi msL¨v n«vm I e„×

Rb‡Mvôxi msL¨v µge„w×i †cÖwÿ‡Z

Kj¨vYg~jK Kvh©µg MÖnY I †mme

Kvh©µg Ae¨vnZ ivLv

Kj¨vYg~jK eë¯’vi c~Y©v½ ms¯‥vi (‡cbkb, ¯^v¯’¨ †mev Ges

`xN©‡gqvw` †mev) hv wdmKvj mvm‡UB‡bwewjwU‡K wbwðZ

Kivi cvkvcvwk Amnvq, `y:¯’, eq¯‥ I Ab¨‡ì myiÿv

wbwðZ K‡i Ges hviv mÿg Zv‡ì‡K KvR Ki‡Z Drmvn

†hvMvq

kÖg kw³i AskMÖnY I Drcv`bkxjZv e„w× Kiv ( bvix I

Rb‡Mvôxi eq¯‥ MÖæc‡K jÿ K‡i kÖgkw³‡Z AskMÖn‡Yi

Rb¨ cÖ‡Yv`b cÖ`vb)

wievDÛ Ae dvwU©wjwU‡K DrmvwnZ K‡i Ggb bxwZ •Zwi Kiv

Ges bvix I cyiæl Df‡qi Rb¨ mšÍvb jvjbcvjb I

kÖgevRv‡i AskMÖnY mnR Kiv

Drm: ‡Møvevj gwbUwis wi‡cvU© (2015) Gi mviwY 6.1 Gi Dci wfwË K‡i|

mviwY 4-G cÖ`Ë †kÖYxKiY Gi wecix‡Z mviwY 3-G D‡jøwLZ BGmAvi m¤úwK©Z cÖv°jb

ZzjbvKiY †_‡K †`Lv hvq †h evsjv‡`k wej¤ wWwf‡WÛ Gi w`‡K µgk G‡Mv‡”Q| GRb¨

RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi cÖv_wgK ch©v‡qi Rb¨ cÖvmw½K bxwZ cÖYqb I ev Íevqb Ki‡Z n‡e|

Z‡e G ch©šÍ evsjv‡`‡ki M„nxZ bxwZmg~n ch©v‡jvPbv K‡i †`Lv †M‡Q, Kg©ms¯’vb m„wói Rb¨

‡hgb ch©vß wewb‡qvM nqwb (A_©vr wRwWwci kZvsk wn‡m‡e wewb‡qvM GLbI cÖvq 3-4 kZvsk

NvUwZ i‡q‡Q) ‡Zgwb KvwiMwi I e„wËg~jK cÖwkÿY mn gvbe m¤ú` Dbœq‡bI wewb‡qvM Ach©vß

(evsjv‡`‡k wkÿvq wRwWwci gvÎ 2 kZvsk wewb‡qvM nq hv Ab¨vb¨ †`‡ki wewb‡qv‡Mi Zzjbvq

A‡bK Kg)| kÖg kw³‡Z bvixi wb¤œ (2010 mv‡j cyiæl 82 kZvs‡ki wecix‡Z bvixi 36

kZvsk) AskMÖnY kÖgkw³‡Z bvixi AskMÖn‡Y †h cÖwZeÜKZv we`¨gvb i‡q‡Q Zv wb‡ ©k K‡i|

AwaKš‘ mÂq I Kg©ms¯’vb m„wôi AbyK~j Ae¯’v •Zwi I Zv †Rvi`viKi‡Y M„nxZ D‡`¨vMI h‡_ó

bq †Kbbv RvZxq mÂq nvi 30 kZvs‡ki KvQvKvwQ Ges ‡eKvi‡Z¡i nvi 20 kZvs‡ki †ewk|

evsjv‡`k †h‡nZz mwVK mg‡q mwVK c`‡ÿc wb‡Z cvi‡Q bv †m‡nZz RbmsL¨vZvwË¡K myweavi

cÖ_g ch©vq †_‡K mydj †c‡Z e¨_©I n‡Z cv‡i|

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