ew112310h-0 1 hydrometeorological, entomological and epidemiological time markers for urban malaria...
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Hydrometeorological, Entomological and Epidemiological Time Markers for
Urban Malaria in Niamey, Niger
Earle Williams
Session H36: The Hydroclimatic Basis for Tropical Ecosystem Services
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting
December 13-17, 2010
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CERMES (Niamey, Niger)
Thierry Fandeur and Rabiou Labbo
Institut Pasteur (Paris, France)
Jean-Bernard Duchemin
Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (Guadeloupe, France)
Nathalie Nathou
AGRYMET (Niamey, Niger)
Abdou Ali and Adamou Mahamadou
DMN (Niamey, Niger)
Ousmane Allahi Daoura and Gaptia Lawan Katiellou
PNLP (Niamey, Niger)
Salissou Adamou and Abami Maazou
SPIS (Niamey, Niger)
Moussa Barké
Great Basin Unified Air Pollution Control District (Bishop, CA)
Brian Russell
Collaborators
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Working Hypothesis:
• Hydrometeorological aspect: The onset of sustained standing water is abrupt and synchronous
• Entomological aspect: The onset of the mosquito population is abrupt and synchronous
• Epidemiological aspect: The onset of malaria cases is abrupt and synchronous
The Nature of Malaria Development in Niamey, Niger
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Time Line for Malaria Development
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Map of Niamey, Niger Showing Locations of Public Clinics
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
50
100
Gaweye
H.D.
Karadjé
Kirkissoye
Lamordé 1
Saguia
Lamordé 2
Zarmagandey
Julian Day
0
50
100
0
20
40
0
20
40
0100200
0
50
100
050
100150
050
100150200
Year 2005
Abrupt and Synchronous Increase in Malaria Cases
tMalaria
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Evolution of Standing Water in One Niamey Street
15%
10%
5%
Rue Dallols – PlateauNiamey, Niger 2007
July August September
Sta
nd
ing
Wa
ter A
rea
(m2)
Fra
cti
on
al a
rea
(%)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
tWater
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Standing Water in Niamey, Niger(Rue Dallols)
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Climatology of Surface Relative Humidity Over Oceans
from Peixoto and Oort (1996)
80% is a common value
At night, a land surface with standing water behaves like the ocean
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Daily Maximum Relative Humidity For 2004-2009 (Agrhymet Station, Niamey)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
20406080
100
Year 2009
Year 2008
Year 2007
Year 2006
Year 2005
Year 2004
JulianDay
Rel
ativ
e H
umid
ity (
%)
020406080
100
Rel
ativ
e H
umid
ity (
%)
020406080
100
Rel
ativ
e H
umid
ity (
%)
020406080
100
Rel
ativ
e H
umid
ity (
%)
020406080
100
R
elat
ive
Hum
idity
(%
)
020406080
100
Rel
ativ
e H
umid
ity (
%)
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
20
40
60
80
100Year 2005
R
ela
tive
Hu
mid
ity (
%)
Julian Day
HRmax HRmin
Daily Max and Min Relative Humidity For 2005 (Agrhymet Station, Niamey)
tWater
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Time Markers (tWater, tMalaria) for Seven Seasons
Year 80% RH 80% RH District I District II District III Difference (days)
(DMN) (AGRHYMET) tMalaria - tWater
2004 July 7 June 30 Aug 8 Aug 8 Aug 8 32, 39
2005 June 30 June25 Jul 24 Jul 24 Jul 24 25, 29
2006 July 15 July 9 Aug 6 Aug 6 Aug 6 21, 28
2007 July 22 July 22 Aug 21 Aug 21 Aug 21 28, 28
2008 June 25 June 25 Jul 27 Jul 27 Jul 20 25, 32
2009 July 27 July 27 Aug 15 Aug 15 Aug 15 20, 34
2010 July 28 July 30 Boukoki clinic max cases on Sept 2 36, 34
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Abrupt and Synchronous Increases in Mosquito Counts
Light Trap Measurements
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Evolution of Hydrometeorology and Mosquitoes 2010 Wet Season
tWater
tMosquito tMalaria
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Value of Time Markers
Time Marker Value
tWater
Focused deployment of larvacides
tMosquito
Focused deployment of insecticides
tMalaria
Focused deployment of clinic personnel and supply of medication
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• Consistent time markers have been identified in the development of urban malaria in Niamey, Niger
• Greater integration of expertise in hydrometeorology, entomology and epidemiology are needed to combat this disease
Conclusion
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Annual Deaths Due to Malaria Versus Annual Rainfall Total in Niamey, Niger
300 400 500 600 700 800 900200
300
400
500
600
1998
20022003
2004
2005
2006
De
ath
s in
Nia
me
y d
ue
to m
ala
ria
Annual rainfall for Aéroport gauge
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Standing Water in Niamey, Niger
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Standing Water in Niamey, Niger
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Abrupt and Synchronous Increase in Malaria Cases
20 30 40 50
0
50
100
Week
Goudel
0
100
200 G.R.
080
160 Boukoki
0
100
200 Lazaret
0
80
160 Maourey
0200400600 Tondibiah
0
50
100 F. Kouara
0
50
100 Yantala Haut
0
50
100 Recasement
20 30 40 50
0
200
400
Week
Goudel
0100200 G.R.
0
80
160 Boukoki
0100200 Lazaret
0
80
160 Maourey
0100200300 Tondibiah
0100200300 F. Kouara
050
100150 Yantala Haut
0
100
200 Recasement
20 30 40 50
04080
120
Week
Goudel
0204060 G.R.
0200400 Boukoki
0100200300 Lazaret
0
100
200 Maourey0
100200 Tondibiah
080
160 F. Kouara
0
80
160 Yantala Haut0
4080
120 Recasement
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Evidence for Abrupt Increases in Mosquito Populations
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Flooding in Taladje Quartier Due to a Blocked
Drain
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Aircraft Surveillance of Boukoki Gouro