examining social preferences in northern uganda matt lowes econ 700
Post on 22-Dec-2015
221 views
TRANSCRIPT
Examining Social Preferences in Northern Uganda
Matt Lowes
ECON 700
Motivation
• Conflict in northern Uganda• Lord’s Resistance Army and the
Government of Uganda
• Policy of displacement - exogenous variation
• Inform post-conflict recovery policy and aid interventions
Literature Review
• Abigail Barr (2003) Resettlement, Trust and Trustworthiness in Zimbabwe
• Chris Blattman - Psychological effects of Abduction
Experimental Design: Sample
• 23 villages (8 host, 15 displaced) in Paicho and Awach sub-counties in Gulu district
Exp. Design: Games
• Trust Game– Measures of trust and trustworthiness
• Experimental controls– Dictator game– Risk game
• Individual and community level survey
Summary Statistics
Summary Statistics Population Host Displaced Abducted Not Abducted
Female 0.3832599 0.3974359 0.3758389 0.3559322 0.3952096
Age 34.23348 37.29487 32.63087 34.54237 34.30769
Literacy* 0.467 0.4872 0.4564 0.3559 0.503
Numeracy** 0.6123 0.5641 0.6376 0.5593 0.6347
Ave. Sent DG 407.9295 387.1795 418.7919 400 410.7784
Ave. Sent TG 429.9559 423.0769 433.557 444.0678 423.9521
Ave. Return TG A 317.1806 302.5641 324.8322 318.6441 316.1677
Ave. Return TG B 549.7797 548.7179 550.3356 552.5424 547.3054
Ave. Return TG C 733.9119 733.3333 734.2148 769.4915 719.7485
Ave. Return TG D 985.9031 948.7179 1005.369 1003.39 979.6407
Ave. Return TG E 1247.568 1256.41 1242.94 1288.136 1228.731
Take Risk? 0.5903 0.641 0.5638 0.4915 0.6228
n 227 78 149 59 167
*Can you read with ease a book or newspaper in some language?**Can you tell me what 16,000 UGX plus 12,000 UGX equals?
Table 1
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Abduction -.33396734* -.32631707* -.32330225* -.3211066* -.32200436*
(0.080) (0.088) (0.092) (0.097) (0.097)
Displacement -.17517806 -.19507011 -.19482848 -.21946654
(0.329) (0.285) (0.286) (0.233)
Duration of Stay -.00102291 -.00101237 -.00097258
(0.576) (0.581) (0.598)
Literacy .01406214 -.14684964
(0.935) (0.487)
Numeracy .28919616
(0.179)
constant .31272313*** .42684544*** .55439576** .54585671* 0.45492921Note: *** significant at 0.01 level, ** significant at .05 level, * significant at .1 level.p-values in parenthesis
Table 2
Determinants of Risk Tolerance
Results: Risk
Results: Altruism
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Abduction -12.840 -14.870 -15.267 -18.882 -18.787447(0.404) (0.326) (0.316) (0.217) (0.215)
Displacement 36.352*** 36.706** 36.157** 33.450389**(0.010) (0.011) (0.011) (0.018)
Duration in IDP -.0025 -.02155 -.01829519(0.986) (0.879) (0.896)
Literacy -22.904* -41.078047***(0.091) (0.010)
Numeracy 34.205693**(0.036)
constant 411.75162*** 388.55668*** 389.01217*** 403.25436*** 391.84575***(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Note: *** significant at 0.01 level, ** significant at .05 level, * significant at .1 level.p-values in parathensis
Table 3
Dictator Game - Measure of Altruism
Results: Trust
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Dictator Game .2889*** .2858*** .2851*** .2853*** .2880***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.005) (0.000)
Abduction 24.941 24.757 24.290 25.942 27.568
(0.133) (0.136) (0.147) (0.123) (0.105)
Displacement 3.498 3.235 4.228 3.874
(0.823) (0.839) (0.791) (0.809)
Duration of Stay -.0511 -.0451 -.0373
(0.743) (0.772) (0.811)
Risk 12.596 12.205
(0.407) (0.423)
Literacy 6.883
(0.707)
Numeracy 5.186
(0.782)
constant 306.358*** 305.356*** 312.038*** 302.734*** 294.214***
( 0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)Note: *** significant at 0.01 level, ** significant at .05 level, * significant at .1 level.p-values in parenthesis
Table 4
Trust Game Player 1 - Measure of Trust
Results: Trustworthiness
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Dictator Game .9262*** .9779*** .9738*** .9414*** .9191***
(0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002)
Abduction 66.923 70.438 70.177 61.247 61.115
(0.284) (0.259) (0.263) (0.333) (0.333)
Displacement -61.349 -71.076 -71.002 -73.485
(0.295) (0.233) (0.232) (0.217)
Duration of Stay -.6499 -.6869 -.6817
(0.266) (0.240) (0.243)
Literacy -54.663 -75.759
(0.330) (0.268)
Numeracy 37.564
(0.591)
constant 532.072*** 550.498*** 633.352*** 678.868*** 675.551***(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Note: *** significant at 0.01 level, ** significant at .05 level, * significant at .1 level.p-values in parenthesis
Table 5
Trust Game Player 2 - Measure of Trustworthiness
Conclusions
• Abduction effects on risk tolerance
• Amendment to Blattman’s policy suggestion– Policy aware of altered risk tolerance
among abductees
• Confirmation of resilience
Where is Uganda? Where is Gulu?
Paicho and Awach Sub-Counties