Examples from the Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America

Cristina Fernandez-Martinez (University of Western Sydney)Cristina Fernandez-Martinez (University of Western Sydney)Tamara Weyman (University of Western Sydney)Tamara Weyman (University of Western Sydney)Sylvie Fol (Université Paris 1 Panthéon – Sorbonne)Sylvie Fol (Université Paris 1 Panthéon – Sorbonne)Ivonne Audirac (Florida State University)Ivonne Audirac (Florida State University)Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot (Université de Rennes 1)Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot (Université de Rennes 1)Elizabeth Deakin (University of California)Elizabeth Deakin (University of California)Thorsten Wiechmann (Dresden Technical University)Thorsten Wiechmann (Dresden Technical University)Hiroshi Yahagi (Osaka City University)Hiroshi Yahagi (Osaka City University)

1

Discusses the forthcoming symposium in the Progress in Planning Journal

Three regions:Asia-Pacific – Australia and JapanEurope – Germany, France and UKNorth America- USA

Examine city population trajectories Analyse the policy responses in shrinking

cities Identify whether these policies differ by

the type of shrinkage and geographical area

2

Examined 299 cities (LGAs with population above 10,000)

Population trajectories from 1960-2008

3

Top ten shrinking cities policy responses were examined. Cities with: Continuous Shrinkage –

plan for economic/ population stabilisation

Stabilised shrinkage – plan for economic/ population growth

Shrinking – plan for growth, improvements in infrastructure, land use and aesthetics

Shrinking small cities are facing increasing pressure from an ageing population – Most cities are implementing both Ageing and Youth programs and strategies

Local Government

State City Type City Size

Recent Trajectory (%) 2003-2008)

Shrinkage since 1960-2008 (%)

Simplified Shrinking Category

Broken Hill NSW Resource-based

Small -3.00 -66.04 Shrinking (Continuous)

Adelaide SA Knowledge-intensive

Small 22.85 -49.03 Stabilised Shrinking (medium)

North Burnett QLD Lifestyle Small -0.31 -31.50 Shrinkage (Continuous)

Warrumbungle NSW Rural Small -3.57 -30.14 Shrinking (Continuous)

Yarra VIC Knowledge-intensive

Small 7.58 -23.99 Stabilised Shrinkage (Medium)

Southern Grampian

VIC Rural Small 2.14 -23.53 Stabilised Shrinkage (Recent)

Port Pirie City and Dist

SA Resource-based

Small 1.99 -19.22 Stabilised Shrinkage (Recent)

Woollahra NSW Knowledge-intensive

Small 0.91 -18.80 Stabilised Shrinkage (Medium)

Corangamite VIC Rural Small 0.36 -18.46 Shrinking (Medium)

Marrickville NSW Dispersed Metro

Small 0.85 -18.10 Shrinking (Long)

4

Japanese Prefectures were examined from 1960-2005

5

Local Government

Prefecture City Size

Recent Trajectory 2006-2007（％ )

Shrinkage since 1990-2007(%)

Refined Shrinking Category

Otaru Hokkaido Middle -1.4 -15.3 Continuous Shrinkage

Omuta Fukuoka Middle -1.4 -14.5 ContinuousShrinkage

Hakodate Hokkaido Middle -1.1 -12.5 Medium-termShrinkage

Kure Hiroshima Middle -0.9 -12.4 Medium-termShrinkage

Kushiro Hokkaido Middle -1.0 -12.0 Medium-termShrinkage

Onomichi Hiroshima Middle -0.9 -11.8 Medium-termShrinkage

Kiryu Gunma Middle -1.0 -11.2 Medium-termShrinkage

Yokote Akita Middle -0.8 -11.1 Continuous Shrinkage

Ishinomaki Miyagi Middle -1.2 -10.3 Relapsing-remitting Shrinkage

Imabari Ehime Middle -0.8 -9.8 Medium-termShrinkage

Japan’s top ten shrinking cities’ policy responses was examined City master plans

revealed the following population presumptions: 6 - continued population

contraction 2 -stabilisation 2 - abandoned making

future plans with an ideal population target

Issues: City governments can

only raise 30% of the necessary funds for local needs

Ageing population

6

Topics Similarities DifferencesJapan/Australia Japan Australia

Governance 3-tired system of governance

Urban policy making is highly centralised

State Government produces regional strategies and local government implements through Local Environmental Plans

Cities Projection trajectories

Prefectures experienced significant peaks and troughs from 1960-2005

Majority of cities have been growing, city shrinkage is occurring mostly in the small rural and resource-based cities/towns

City Issues Ageing Population

High dependence on

private transportTriggers Economic restructuring

Environmental Conditions - Drought Recessions

Fluctuating commodity prices

Policy response

Restricted by resources Population presumptions

Depends on local decision-makers acceptance of population decline

Aesthetical improvements Typology of shrinkage – policy response

Managing the ageing population

7

Shrinking cities is a wide spread phenomena in Europe

Numerous cities have lost population in the past decades and this was interpreted as: Structurally weak areas:

Old industrialised rust-belts Peripheral rural areas and

small towns Effect of demographic trends:

Outmigration in Eastern Germany

Low birth rates Effect of hollowing out

processes of urban centres: Suburbanisation Urban sprawl

Source: Atlas of Shrinking Cities 2006 8

Germany cities’ population trajectories

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

Köln

Bonn

Kiel

Bremen

Kassel

Berlin

Erfurt

Hamburg

München

LeipzigDresden

Rostock

Dortmund

Hannover

Mannheim Nürnberg

Chemnitz

Bielefeld

Karlsruhe

Stuttgart

Magdeburg

Frankfurt a.M.

Essen

Düsseldorf

Saarbrücken

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

Köln

Bonn

Kiel

Bremen

Kassel

Berlin

Erfurt

Hamburg

München

LeipzigDresden

Rostock

Dortmund

Hannover

Mannheim Nürnberg

Chemnitz

Bielefeld

Karlsruhe

Stuttgart

Magdeburg

Frankfurt a.M.

Essen

Düsseldorf

Saarbrücken

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

Köln

Bonn

Kiel

Bremen

Kassel

Berlin

Erfurt

Hamburg

München

LeipzigDresden

Rostock

Dortmund

Hannover

Mannheim Nürnberg

Chemnitz

Bielefeld

Karlsruhe

Stuttgart

Magdeburg

Frankfurt a.M.

Essen

Düsseldorf

Saarbrücken

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

Köln

Bonn

Kiel

Bremen

Kassel

Berlin

Erfurt

Hamburg

München

LeipzigDresden

Rostock

Dortmund

Hannover

Mannheim Nürnberg

Chemnitz

Bielefeld

Karlsruhe

Stuttgart

Magdeburg

Frankfurt a.M.

Essen

Düsseldorf

Saarbrücken

Source: Siedentop / Kausch 2003 9

Germany cities’ population trajectories

Source: Bertelsmann Foundation

Stable medium-sized towns

Growing suburban settlements

Suburbs with reduced growth

Shrinking and ageing municipalities

Stable rural communities

Rural communities with low dynamic

Prospering rural communities

Economically strong cities

Exclusive Locations

Municipalities 5.000 – 100.000 residents

10

“Shrinkage” was systematically disregarded as a dominant development trend until the 1990ies

Policy makers and experts in the administration were unable to cope with the issue in a constructive way.

Since 2000 the situation in Germany has changed significantly

Today, urban shrinkage is one of the most discussed issues in urban politics.

Since 2002: State Programme ‘Stadtumbau Ost’

11

Three types of Shrinking Cities: Old Industrial

Metropolitan Areas: 8 out of 52 urban

areas > 150,000 inhabitants

Small Towns: 102 urban areas out

of 310 Central Cities and first

ring suburbs within growing urban areas: Linked to urban

sprawl

12

Shrinking Cities is not a topic in France (for academics and policy makers)

Since the 70s, the decline of industrial cities has been addressed through strong public policies (delocalisation of public services and industries, fiscal incentives…)

Regional policies are today mostly focused on rural decline

Shrinking small towns are ignored by national policies

Saint-Etienne, the largest shrinking city in France

13

Two Types of Shrinking Cities:

Large Metropolitan areas: 35% of the

country’s population

Large Cities: 6% of the country’s

population

14

The Shrinking Cities topic has not yet reached interest at the national level

The debate about urban decline is local and so are policy responses

Urban regeneration strategies are targeted toward inner cities and brown-field redevelopment

Valorisation of city image, cultural flagships, public-private partnerships and gentrification are favoured

Socio-spatial divide is reinforced

15

France and UK are (still) countries with relatively high birth rates and continuing population growth: there is no pressing debate about shrinking cities

The decline of industrial cities is not a recent phenomenon and it is not the focus of attention of urban and regional policies

In France, most shrinking cities are small towns with little access to media and political attention.

In Germany (and many other countries in Europe) the situation is different: very different types of cities face a decreasing population due to low fertility rates and / or outmigration.

Urban restructuring of shrinking cities is one of the most discussed issues in urban development policies – both at the state level and the local level

Hugh public investments are made to deal with housing vacancies and to adapt the public infrastructure to a decreasing population

16

U.S. Industrial Shrinking (Central) Cities 1990-2000

Source: Vey (2007) Restoring Prosperity, Brookings Institute

3%

8%

15%

28%

49%

16,350,102, N = 65

17

City & suburb population growth 1970 – 2000

On average, suburbs grew 18% points more than cites per decade.

Metro areas on left side of the chart, experienced population decline.

Metro-wide forces—more than suburban forces—influenced the growth of cities & suburbs.

Cities and their suburbs grew & declined together (e.g., Austin and Phoenix had city and suburban growth rates well above average; Pittsburgh and Buffalo had city and suburban growth rates well below average.

“This shared fortune of cities and suburbs held continuously throughout the 20th century.”

Source: Jason Rappaport (2005) The Shared Fortunes of Cities and Suburbs – Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Economic Review, Third Quarter.

Shrinking cities & suburbs

18

Shrinking city policy responses

State policy: shift from managing decline to stimulating revival of industrial shrinking cities by: Seizing the recent U.S. demographic shift from suburbs to cities:

Graying of population, growth of one-person households and of preference for urban living.

Leveraging unique features and resources into competitive advantage: Waterfronts, walkable downtowns, public transit, historic architecture Dense employment centers, universities and medical and research institutions Proximity to economically strong metropolitan areas.

Leveraging rich social and cultural amenities: Public art, theatre, sports and museums Regional and historical identity Sense of pride and place.

Investment in: Crime reduction and education improvement via vocational training in new-economy

skills New-economy industries (education, medical, high-tech, culture and entertainment,

green utilities) that capitalize on the city’s and metropolitan strengths and connect them to the global economy

Upgrading crumbling infrastructure. 19

Shrinking city policy responses (cont.)

New laws and policies: Supporting the banking, management and marketability of vacant properties Supporting brownfield cleaning and redevelopment Flexible state housing subsidies that help de-concentrate poor neighbourhoods

from central cities State appropriations to help localities leverage the market potential of under-

served urban neighbourhoods

Local and metropolitan policy: Seizing the shift to a green economy Developing land banking of vacant and derelict properties Downsizing city footprint and converting vacant land to

green open space Developing urban agriculture and green infrastructure Siting solar energy generation facilities

20

Shrinking Cities occur in all areas, though to a different extent and with a different impact

Policy responses to urban shrinkage are: Strongly influenced by national, regional and

local contexts Depend on the way in which local and global

factors interact in different cities Related to national and local modes of regulation

A typology for policies/strategies for shrinking cities would be a valuable and necessary in guiding further empirical research

21

Asia-Pacific contacts:Asia-Pacific contacts: Cristina Fernandez-Martinez* (c.martinez@uws.edu.au)Cristina Fernandez-Martinez* (c.martinez@uws.edu.au) Tamara Weyman* (t.weyman@uws.edu.au)Tamara Weyman* (t.weyman@uws.edu.au) Hiroshi Yahagi (hyaha@nifty.com)Hiroshi Yahagi (hyaha@nifty.com)

European contacts:European contacts: Sylvie Fol (sfol@univ_paris1.fr)Sylvie Fol (sfol@univ_paris1.fr) Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot (Emmanuele.sabot@unb.fr)Cunningham-Sabot (Emmanuele.sabot@unb.fr) Thorsten Wiechmann (thorsten.wiechmann@udo.edu)Thorsten Wiechmann (thorsten.wiechmann@udo.edu)

North America contacts:North America contacts: Ivonne Audirac (i_audirac@yahoo.com)Ivonne Audirac (i_audirac@yahoo.com) Elizabeth Deakin (edeakin@berkely.edu)Elizabeth Deakin (edeakin@berkely.edu)

* Correspondence authors

The paper is being prepared with the support of the Australian Research Council through an ARCD grant to the authors

22