exe summary - china.docx

8/10/2019 Exe Summary - china.docx

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

AREA SCAN : PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

SYNDICATE 4 GUIDE DSB DIV GP CAPT S ANANDAN


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SYNDICATE NO 4

NAME OF THE STUDENT OFFICER COURSE

1. LT COL RS SANDHU TSOC 40 (ARMY)

2. LT COL AMIT KARNWAL(SYN LDR) TSOC 40 (ARMY)

3. WG CDR R TYAGI TSOC 23 (AF)

4. WG CDR B JANARTHAN TSOC 23 (AF)

5. MAJ PK GILL TSOC 40 (ARMY)

6. MAJ SANDEEP SHARMA, SM TSOC 40 (ARMY)

7. MAJ HIMANSHU PANDEY TSOC 40 (ARMY)

8. MAJ SRINIVAS PARTHASARTHY TSOC 40 (ARMY)

9. MAJ A BOSE TSOC 40 (ARMY)

10. MAJ IRFAN KHAN TSOC 40(ARMY)

11. LT H JAISWAL NTSC

12. LT R RAHEEM NTSC


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METHODOLOGY

1. China commands a towering posn in the Asian theatre. The 21 st century is oftentouted as the Asian Century and in this Great Asian Game China is undoubtedly the

star player. India though are no pushovers in this arena and future where India emergesas the pre-dominant force is just waiting to happen. This therefore puts India firmly onthe Chinese radar both as an ally as well as an adversary. Therefore turning a blind eyeto China its rise and its motivations would be suicidal to say the least for an emergingnation like India.

2. But there is a lot more than meets the eye as far as China is concerned.Secretive as they are, often what is seen is only the tip of an edifice which is biggerthan what most of us can fathom in our imaginations. Any study on China therefore hasto delve deep into the fine print and derive lessons for India in this dynamic scenario.

3. Given the complexity of this nation which is a enigma to the world stating whatthe Chinese do or have done is never sufficient. One has to think like the Chinese andpre-empt their actions and understand what they mean when they say what they say. Inorder to equip oneself to do so a holistic view of our northern neighbour not just from amilitary point of view but a historic, geo-strategic, diplomatic and economic point of viewis essential.

Aim

4. The aim of the study is therefore to carry out a comprehensive analysis of Chinawith special emphasis to the current politico military situation and the impact it shallhave on Indias present and future. All this has to be done in the backdrop of the hugehistoric baggage that China carries.

Scope and Methodology

5. The study concentrates on the developments in China in the current millenniumwith pertinent references to the events that lead up to the China of today. The studytherefore also briefly covers the historical background of China, its geography, its

political system and governance and its foreign policy. The study also covers thePeoples Liberation Army (PLA) to include the PLA, the PLAAF, the PLAN and theSecond Artillery. The study thereafter proceeds to analyze implications of a rising Chinafor India and the way ahead for India. As for India Taming the Dragon is essential toits peaceful existence in this century.


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

AREA SCAN : CHINA

1. As students studying the politico-military strategic aspects of the world and asIndians in particular, it is imperative to analyse and research our closest competitor,who many believe, will dictate the future of the 21 st Century. As immediate neighbourswith unresolved boundary disputes, a large trade imbalance and increasing Chinesefootprint in the Indian Ocean Region, we need to closely study the resurgence of Chinaand its ramifications on our own security paradigm. Accordingly, the Area Scan Studyon China takes a plunge , on the issues of relevance under following heads:-

(a) Geography & Terrain.(b) The Historical Perspective of China.(c) Political structure and Governance.(d) Economy.(e) The PLA, AF & Navy.(f) International relations.(g) Internal fault lines.(h) SWOT analysis.(i) Implications for India.(j) The Way ahead.

2. China ,officially the People's Republic of China (PRC ), is a sovereign statelocated in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of over1.39 billion. The PRC is a single-party state governed by the Communist Party, with itsseat of government in the capital city of Beijing. It exercises jurisdiction over 22provinces, five autonomous regions, four direct-controlled municipalities (Beijing,Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing) ,and two mostly self-governing Special

Administrative Regions (Hong Kong and Macau) . The PRC also claims Taiwan whichis controlled by the Republic of China (ROC), a separate political entity as its 23rdprovince, a claim which is controversial due to the complex political status of Taiwan.

3. Geography & Terrain . Covering approximately 9.6 million square kilometers,China is the world's second-largest country by land area, and either the third or fourth-largest by total area. China's landscape is vast and diverse, ranging from foreststeppes and the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts in the arid north to subtropical forests inthe wetter south. The Himalaya, Karakoram, Pamir and TianShan mountain rangesseparate China from South and Central Asia. The Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, the third-and sixth-longest in the world, run from the Tibetan Plateau to the densely populatedeastern seaboard. China's coastline along the Pacific Ocean is 14,500 kilometres(9,000 mi) long, and is bounded by the Bohai, Yellow, East and South China Seas .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-party_statehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct-controlled_municipalities_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianjinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chongqinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Administrative_Region_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Administrative_Region_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Administrative_Region_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Konghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macauhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_area_of_the_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Province,_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Province,_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_land_areahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_total_areahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_total_areahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolian-Manchurian_grasslandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolian-Manchurian_grasslandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gobi_Deserthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taklamakan_Deserthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deserthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropicalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Himalayahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakoramhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamir_Mountainshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tian_Shanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yangtze_Riverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Riverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibetan_Plateauhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bohai_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_China_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_China_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bohai_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibetan_Plateauhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Riverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yangtze_Riverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tian_Shanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamir_Mountainshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakoramhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Himalayahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropicalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deserthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taklamakan_Deserthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gobi_Deserthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolian-Manchurian_grasslandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolian-Manchurian_grasslandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_total_areahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_total_areahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_land_areahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Province,_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Province,_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_area_of_the_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macauhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Konghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Administrative_Region_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Administrative_Region_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chongqinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianjinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct-controlled_municipalities_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-party_statehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asia


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4. Historical Perspective of China . The history of China goes back to the ancientcivilization one of the world's earliest that flourished in the fertile basin of the YellowRiver in the North China Plain. For millennia, China's political system was based on

hereditary monarchies, known as dynasties, beginning with the semi-mythological Xia ofthe Yellow River basin (c. 2000 BCE). Since 221 BCE, when the Qin Dynasty firstconquered several states to form a Chinese empire, the country has expanded, fracturedand been reformed numerous times. The Republic of China (ROC) overthrew the lastdynasty in 1911, and ruled the Chinese mainland until 1949.5. After the defeat of the Empire of Japan in World War II, the Communist Partydefeated the nationalist Kuomintang in mainland China and established the People'sRepublic of China in Beijing on 1 October 1949, while the Kuomintang relocated the ROCgovernment to its present capital of Taipei. Subsequent turn of events marked China'stransition from a planned economy to a mixed economy with an increasingly open marketenvironment, a system termed by some as " market socialism" , and officially by theCommunist Party of China as "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" . The PRC adoptedits current constitution on 4 December 1982.

6. Politics & Governance . The new Chinese leadership has consolidated Chinasapproach to secure its core interests and the resultant continuation of Chinas policieshave evidently impacted upon the regional security landscape. In spite of the officialfocus of the recently concluded Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC on"Comprehensively Deepening Reform", the emphasis of the new leadership towardsattaining the Chinese Dream has generated intense deliberations. The stress ondevelopment, the need to protect Chinese interests overseas, internal security issuesand continued modernisation of the PLA are the issues of immediate concern to thenew leadership.

7. Economy. The Economy of China stretches over thousands of years andhas undergone alternating cycles of prosperity and decline. China was for a large partof the last two millennia the world's largest and most advanced economy. Since theintroduction of economic reforms in 1978, China has become one of the world's fastest-growing major economies. As of 2013, it is the world's second-largest economy byboth nominal total GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP), and is also the world'slargest exporter and importer of goods. China is also a member of numerous formal andinformal multilateral organizations, including the WTO, APEC, BRICS, the ShanghaiCooperation Organization, the BCIM and the G-20.

8. Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) . China is modernising its forces, emphasizingpreparations to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity conflicts underinformationalised conditions. The PLA is working toward these goals by acquiringmodern weapon systems, new military capabilities including exploitation of cyber spaceas a military domain, promulgating new doctrines for modern war fighting, reformingmilitary institutions and improving exercise / training standards. In future, PLAcapabilities could pose a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region.The study not only covers the aspects of PLA but of AF and Navy too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Riverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Riverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_China_Plainhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_historyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xia_Dynastyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qin_Dynastyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%931949)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qing_Dynastyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qing_Dynastyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mainland_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire_of_Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuomintanghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taipeihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism_with_Chinese_characteristicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reformhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia-Pacific_Economic_Cooperationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICShttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCIMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-20_major_economieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-20_major_economieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCIMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICShttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia-Pacific_Economic_Cooperationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reformhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism_with_Chinese_characteristicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taipeihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuomintanghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire_of_Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mainland_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qing_Dynastyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qing_Dynastyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%931949)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qin_Dynastyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xia_Dynastyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_historyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_China_Plainhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Riverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Riverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_China


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9. International Status/ Relations . The PRC has been a United Nations membersince 1971, when it replaced the ROC as a permanent member of the U.N. SecurityCouncil. China is a recognized nuclear weapons state and has the world's largeststanding army, with the second-largest defence budget. China is a regional powerwithin Asia and has been characterized as a potential superpower by a number ofcommentators. The current strategic balance of power in Asia remains uncertain.Present US administrations policies are aimed at strengthening US military alliancesand strategic partnerships in Asia and simultaneous repositioning its forces. Withconsiderable US military presence in the region, it is but natural for China to assess thatthis rebalancing is directed towards it. This has exposed Asia to a possible power playand evident rivalry in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Chinas aggressionover its maritime territorial claims in these seas has evidently aggravated already

antagonized Sino-Japanese relations.Even fish are not exempt from Chinese territorial claims. While provocation may

not be Chinese intention, her neighbours hardly feel reassured.

10. Meanwhile China has made extensive forays into Africa and CAR. In addition,she has also invested heavily in her relations with Russia and other neighbours apartfrom effectively resolving most of her border issues, mostly from a position of strength.

11. Internal Fault Lines & SWOT Analysis. This section gives a brief insight intovarious challenges, that China faces not only internally but from the new dynamic

International Arena. In terms of strength, China is well poised to exercise directinfluence on the China Sea and the ASEAN states, permanent membership of UN.Geo-spatial landmass, sustained economic growth and modernized defence forces areother strengths of China. Weakness include massive energy requirements, economicdisparity, an ageing workforce and complex political structure. Together its strengthsand weaknesses pose associated threats and opportunities for China.

12. Implications for India . Indians, after the debacle of 1962, view Chinas rise withtrepidation. Sino Indian relations are, on one hand captive to the deep impact of the1962 debacle over Indian psyche. On the other hand, they are also influenced by the

Chinese aspirations for a perceived rightful place in the world order. Chinas militarymodernisation programme, her growing presence in the Indian Ocean, the unresolvedboundary and claims over Indian territory, the strengthening Sino-Pak nexus and claimsand counterclaims of Chinese troops in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are some of theissues of concern for India. Likewise, China too is vary of the presence of the DalaiLama and the large Tibetan community in India, Indian Naval forays into the SouthChina Sea and the new strategic linkages between New Delhi and Washington DC andNew Delhi and Tokyo. Today, both India and China jostling for the same strategic spaceand resources. An endeavor to analyse these factors has been made to assess theirimpact.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Councilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Councilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Councilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weaponshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troopshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troopshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditureshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowershttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowershttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditureshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troopshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troopshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weaponshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Councilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Councilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Councilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations


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13. The Way Ahead. The big question is :- What is the way ahead for India in viewof the strategic changes in Asia where China sits atop the power pyramid with itsphysical size, military capability and economic clout that combines to assert regional

dominance. India has to adopt a balanced strategy at the pol, diplomatic, eco and millevels. All efforts must be concentrated and synergised towards attaining a stratengagement of China in order to tame the red dragon while retaining our NationalInterests as supreme. India should build a long term political strategic vision to includea National resolve towards engaging China at International fora. An extensive Chinaspecific policy should be evolved and continuosly reviewed. In dealing with them onething, we have to bear in mind is that the intelligently executed diplomatic manoeuvresare critical in addressing the issues arising out of a belligerent China. The China-Indiaeconomic relationship in the 21 st century would be the most vibrant, the relationshipwith the biggest potential.

14. A more efficient framework to settle the Border dispute with stringent timelineswould open up further avenues of Sino Indian cooperation through peaceful means in afair, reasonable, mutually acceptable and proactive manner. . With a clearly laid out andpronounced China centric policy, we must build up our self-reliance and have therequisite military capability. There has to be a strong resolve and concerted effort tobring up the critical infrastructure, credible Missile Defence System, Space and CyberWarfare capabilities. To protect the SLOCs as well to pose a credible threat to themighty ambitions of China, India assert more on its Blue Water Navy and Air.

India and China com mand specia l a t tent ion, not jus t in Asia , but a lsoin the global econo my . T he worlds two m os t popu lous cou n t r i es . Theyhave sustained worlds highest annual GDP growth rates over the pastdecade. The two c ountr ies arguably have the greates t inf luence andleverage among the 10 emerging -market econo mies .

Conclusion

15. Chinas very potent nuclear and missile capabilities coupled with its conventionalcapabilities, which it has developed are a major cause of concern for the nations ofSouth Asia, particularly India. Chinas strategic alliances with Pakistan and Myanmar,Missile/ nuclear prolieration and its attempts to have a foothold in Sri Lanka leading to astrategic encirclement of India would have serious implications for India. The primarygoal presently maybe to maintain a high rate of economic growth, but coupled with itwould also be the quest for ways and means of limiting the powers of its regional rivals,particularly India, so as to become a preponderant power in Asia initially, and a globalpower eventually. The next decade is crucial for India. Indias polic y makers mustadequately respond to the emerging security equations in the region. India, in thecoming years will have to watch China, not only across the Himalayas, but also in thelarger Asian context and Indian Ocean in particular, where the interests of the two

countries have clashed and are likely to clash in the near future. Indias strategic focusmust, therefore, remain on the challenge posed by the likely emergence of a powerfuland aggressive China in the 21 st century.


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exe summary - china.docx

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