expanding the window - the past, present, and future of minnesota's water
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Water Supply Convergence Colloquium | University of Minnesota | February 19, 2016
EXPANDING THE WINDOWTHE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE OF MINNESOTA’S WATER
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Source: Sgt. 1st Class Daniel Ewer, Minnesota National Guard
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OBSERVATIONS
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OLDEST RIVER GAGE
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SEPTEMBER 17, 1883USGS 05211000 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GRAND RAPIDS, MN
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THE ‘WINDOW’THE INTERVAL OF TIME
SPANNED BY INSTRUMENTAL HYDROLOGICAL MEASUREMENTS (TYPICALLY, 30 - 100 YRS)
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LONGRELATIVE TO THE SPAN OF INDIVIDUAL CAREERS
OR THE LIFESPAN OF SOME INFRASTRUCTURE
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SHORTCOMPARED TO THE LENGTH OF TIME MINNESOTA’S RIVERS, LAKES, AND AQUIFERS
HAVE BEEN SET IN THEIR CURRENT CONFIGURATION
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A.D. 1680
Source: Minnesota Historical Society
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LGM
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THE RATE OF WARMING
IN THE MIDWEST HAS MARKEDLY ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST FEW DECADES.
BETWEEN 1900 AND 2010, THE AVERAGE MIDWEST AIR TEMPERATURE
INCREASED BY MORE THAN 1.5ºC.
“ ”
US National Climate Assessment May 6, 2014
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000discharge (cfs) at Grand Forks, North Dakota
Source: United States Geological Survey
THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN MINNESOTA IS PERHAPS THE LEAST STATIONARY RIVER IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
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ADOPTING THE ‘LONG VIEW’ ON MINNESOTA’S LAKES, RIVERS, AND AQUIFERS
COULD HELP US MAKE BETTER DECISIONS
ABOUT MANAGING THE STATE’S WATER.
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PAST PRESENT FUTURE
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PAST
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Source: National Anthropological Archives, Smithsonian Institution
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Source: Dr. Daniel Griffin, University of Minnesota
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Source: Dr. Kevin Anchukaitis, University of Arizona
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FUTURE
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BECAUSE IF WE HAD OBSERVATIONS OF THE FUTURE,
WE OBVIOUSLY WOULD TRUST THEM MORE THAN MODELS.
BUT UNFORTUNATELY
OBSERVATIONS OF THE FUTURE ARE NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
“ ”
Dr. Gavin Schmidt NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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Source: Cook et al., Sciences Advances (2015)
CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT MINNESOTA WILL BE DRIER BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY, BUT EXPERIENCE LESS CHANGE THAN THE SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL PLAINS.
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Source: Matheus Almedia
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