experian automotive quarterly briefing · 2016-03-16 · medium and heavy duty vehicles 29.5% of...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing
Fourth quarter 2015 automotive market share trends and registrations
Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics
Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO
Experian Automotive
2 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Today’s presentation Part one
Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar
Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download
Questions? Contact us at [email protected]
What’s on the Road
VIO by model year, segment, age and market share
U.S. light duty vehicles through December 31, 2015
U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through December 31, 2015
Marty Miller
Senior Product Manager, VIO
3 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Q4 2015 Registrations
Market trends
Geographic performance
Manufacturer, make and model share
Demographic overview
Session overview Part two
Brad Smith
Director, Automotive Market Statistics
4 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Vehicles in
Operation
What’s on the road today?
Light duty vehicles
5 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Vehicles in operation
Q4 2015
258 million
(2.7%)
What’s on the road today? VIO Light duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Vehicles in operation
Q4 2014
251.1 million
Net out of operation
10.3 million
(4%)
Carryover
New vehicle sales
17.25 million
Used vehicle sales
39.9 million
VIO additions/deletions: 27.5 million (10.7%) (new sales + out of operation)
VIO total changes: 67.4 million (26.1%) (used sales + new sales + out of operation)
6 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
VIO change by model year (in millions) Q4 2014 to Q4 2015
72.8% of all vehicles within 14 MY (28%)
New Sales 17.25M
Out of Operation
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
7 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
VIO by model year (in millions)
88M vehicles within “Sweet Spot”
(MY2004 – 2010)
33.6% of VIO MY2010+
77.4% of VIO MY2001+
91.3% of VIO MY1996+
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
8 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Sweet Spot changing Domestic v Import
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
9 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Sweet Spot changing Vehicle segment type
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
10 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share Change from Q4 2014
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
11 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period) Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period)
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
12 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Percentage of VIO by manufacturer market share Change from Q4 2014
Detroit 3 = 55.2%
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
13 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
VIO Vocation How light duty commercial vehicles are used
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
14 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
VIO Vocation – Top makes/models Light duty vehicles as of Q4 2015 (excludes rental / leasing / dealers)
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
15 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Vehicles in
Operation
What’s on the road today?
Medium and heavy duty vehicles
16 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
What’s on the road today? VIO by model year Medium and heavy duty vehicles
29.5% of VIO MY2010+
67.7% of VIO MY2001+
84.5% of VIO MY1996+
Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
Vehicles in operation
Q4 2015
6.9
million
17 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
VIO by GVW class & engine manufacturer share Medium and heavy duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
18 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Top 20 VIO Market share of Vocation – High level Medium and heavy duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
19 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
U.S. Market Overview
Market Share
Loyalty
Conquest and Defection
20 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
New vehicle registrations surpassed the 17 million unit mark for the first time since 2005
21 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Throughout the recovery, the split between individual and organizational vehicle registrations has remained flat
22 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Generally speaking, new vehicle registrations are equally distributed across the calendar year, with Q2 and Q3 seeing a slight increase above Q1 and Q4
23 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Light truck share of individual registration increased 4 percentage points from 2014 to 55%
24 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new individual registrations in 2015
25 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Small Pickups and Upper Premium Sports Cars took the lead in year over year growth while alternative fuel vehicles and high end luxury segments declined
26 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
4 vehicles control more than half of the Entry Level CUV Segment
27 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
General Motors edged Toyota to lead all manufacturers in market share in 2015
28 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Tata, Subaru and General Motors experienced the largest year over year volume increase
29 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
The U.S. market is growing increasingly more competitive with 5 manufacturers fighting to hold or achieve 15% market share
30 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Toyota, Ford and Chevrolet were the only 3 brands to achieve double digit market share in 2015
31 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Of the top 15 brands, only Dodge and VW experienced a year over year decline in new individual registration volume
32 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Ford F150 led all models with 2.76% market share
33 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
U.S. Market Overview
Loyalty, Conquest and
Defection
34 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
New buyers are the most loyal to their brands, followed by Certified Used and Non-Certified Used
35 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Loyalty rates across manufacturer, make, model and dealer measures have been steadily increasing since 2010
36 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Toyota leads all manufacturers with a loyalty rate of nearly 70%
37 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Tata, Porsche and Volvo led all manufacturers in year over year increases in manufacturer loyalty
38 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Subaru leads all brands with 67.9% of returning owners buying another Subaru vehicle
39 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Lexus led all brands with a 7.2 percentage point increase in brand loyalty
40 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Nissan NV 200 leads all models with 52.7% model loyalty rate
41 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly four new customers from other brands
42 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
King of the Conquests, Subaru gained more than 140k more customers than were lost to other brands
43 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Light duty market size grows by 6.9M vehicles over the last 12 months as market share of the CUV and Small Car segments continue to grow
The aftermarket ‘Sweet Spot’ is set to change by Domestic v Import and by vehicle type
Commercial use (vocation) is dominated by Rental and Leasing, though Construction vehicles are close behind, yet showing their age
Total new vehicle registrations surpassed the 17 million unit mark for the first time since 2005
Led by the Entry CUV segment, 10 vehicle segments account for nearly 80% of new individual registrations
New buyers are 3.5 percentage points more loyal to their brands than certified used buyers
Subaru led all brands in make loyalty and in net conquests
In summary
44 © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Today’s presentation
Follow us on Twitter
#EXPAuto
@Experian_Auto
Connect with us on LinkedIn
Experian Automotive
Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar
Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download
Questions? Contact us at [email protected]