experian automotive quarterly briefing€¦ · · 2017-06-21experian automotive quarterly...
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Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing First quarter 2017 automotive market trends
Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
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Today’s presentation
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What’s on the Road
• VIO by model year, segment, age & market share
• U.S. light duty vehicles through March 31, 2017
• U.S. power sport vehicles through March 31, 2017
• Global VIO overviewMarty Miller
Senior Product Manager, VIO
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U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 286.5M
Light Duty
Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans
Cars and GVW Class 1 - 3
Medium & Heavy Duty
Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs,
Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors
GVW Class 4 - 8
Power Sports
Motorcycles, All-Terrain,
Utility Task, Snowmobiles*Q1 2017 includes Puerto Rico
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Source: Experian
Automotive as of
March 31, 2017
(U.S. light duty
vehicles only)
U.S. Vehicles In Operation – a 12 month view
Q1 2016
259.3millionVehicles on
the road
Q1 2017
268.3millionVehicles on
the road
17.2*
NEWVEHICLES
DEALER
42.2*
USEDVEHICLES
200.7*
NOCHANGES
8.2*
EXIT
Out of Operation
*In millions; Q1 2017 includes Puerto Rico,
Q1 2016 does not.
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VIO change by model year (in millions)Q1 2016 to Q1 2017 New Sales 17.2M
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Current 20
Model Years
89.1% of VIO
Current 25
Model Years
95.6% of VIO
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Average Vehicle Age – All vs current 20
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Average Age Rolling – Current 20 model years
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Ave
rag
e A
ge
Ro
ll
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VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO by manufacturer market share
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO trend by quarter with estimated projectionProjections based on current consumer patterns
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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• The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs.
• These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers.
• Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes can have implications to those that service it.
• “Post Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value.
• “Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot.
The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined
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Trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)
84.9M vehicles within
“Sweet Spot”
(MY2006 – 2012) Pre-Sweet
Spot
Post-Sweet
Spot
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
84.9M86.0M89.4M101.4M
93.7M
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Sweet Spot vehicles – domestics vs imports
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Sweet Spot vehicles: Where are they?Index Sweet Spot to total VIO count by state
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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What’s on the road today?
Power Sport Vehicles – On- & Off-Road
Vehicles in Operation
Motorcycles, All-Terrain,
Utility Task, Scooters,
Snowmobiles
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What’s on the road today? VIO by model yearPower sport vehicles
27.9% of VIO
MY2010+
78.9% of VIO
MY2001+
89.2% of VIO
MY1996+
Vehicles in
Operation
Q1 2017
10.6 million
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. power sport vehicles only)
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What’s on the road today? Top 20 brands of power sport vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. power sport vehicles only)
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Market share by Category and SegmentPower sport vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2017 (U.S. power sport vehicles only)
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What’s on the road today?
Cars and Trucks
Link to industry standards ACES and TecDoc
Global Vehicles in Operation
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A global market share view of vehicles in operation (VIO)
Source: Experian Automotive/TecAlliance as of March 31, 2017 & June 30, 2016
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Global VIO – Top manufacturers market comparison
Source: Experian Automotive/TecAlliance as of March 31, 2017 & June 30, 2016
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Global VIO – Top 20 makes (brands) out of nearly 500
Source: Experian Automotive/TecAlliance as of March 31, 2017 & June 30, 2016
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• Total VIO for all motorized vehicle types stands at 286.5 million vehicles in the U.S.
• Average Age light duty
– All vehicles is at 11.5 years
– Current 20 model years remains flat at 9.7 years
• For the first time, there are now more import vehicles within the Aftermarket Sweet Spot at 51.5% market share
• 10.6 million power sport vehicles are currently registered in the U.S. with nearly ¼ of them used off-road
• Global VIO
– The U.S. has nearly a 2:1 market share over China, though the China market has had a larger growth in recent years
– Toyota and Volkswagen are the top manufacturers
– With nearly 500 brands represented in the world market, Toyota, Ford and Chevrolet lead the make names
Summary for Q1 2017
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