exploiting the dynamics of weak signals (voigt)
TRANSCRIPT
Exploiting the dynamics of weak signals
A Difference That Makes a Difference Milton Keynes, Thurs 8 Sept 2011, 14:00-17:30
C. Voigt (ZSI, Vienna),
A. Naeve (KTH, Stockholm)
P. Lefrere (KMI, Milton Keynes)
04/11/2023 Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation)
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Centre for Social Innovation
Socio-technical systems frame
Forecast, Design, Impact and Dissemination
– Participative– Mixed methods – Often pattern based
Keeping people at the centre of innovation
04/11/2023 Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation)
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Roadmapping
TEL-Map - Roadmapping the future of technology enhanced learning
Roadmapping information: trends, delphi-evaluations, semantics, scenarios, disagreements and weak signals
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What is a weak signal? Fashionable, fuzzy term
Working definition of Weak Signals (WS)
– indicators of change not appreciated
– tendency to be surprising– initially lacking clear relations
to other signals
04/11/2023 Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation)
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Weak signals and observers
we have weak signals
we have human sense making
as soon as we focus on one thing, the other thing disappears
http://www.lassp.cornell.edu/ardlouis/dissipative/cat.gif
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Weak signals or illusory percept ? Hamlet: Do you see yonder cloud
that’s almost in shape of a camel?
Polonius: By the Mass, and ‘tis like a camel indeed.
Hamlet: Methinks it is like a weasel.
Polonius: It is backed like a weasel.
Hamlet: Or like a whale?
Polonius: Very like a whale.
Hamlet (Act II, Scene II)
04/11/2023 Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation)
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Information scope
Text corpora
– 3 conferences: EC-TEL, ICALT and ICWL– 1601 abstracts from 2006 – 2009– 363 abstracts in 2010
Rising and falling terms: term frequency raises more than 180% and appeared at least eight times in the previous four years
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Information lenses
Role in Organisation (n=21) Self-rated expertise (n=21)
Interviewees’ Backgrounds:
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Each of you may be able to spot or suggest a weak signal for TEL ….
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Findings: corpus exploitation
QTI
QTI: Question and Test Interoperability specification defines a standard format for the representation of assessment content and results, supporting the exchange of this material between authoring and delivery systems
Serious Games
04/11/2023 Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation)
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Findings: context interviews
Technology uptake impeded by lack of policies and sufficiently mature technologies
Recording, labeling and sharing of learner data (feeding learner models) is on the rise.
Personalised learning includes learners’ goals, trajectories and backgrounds.
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Conclusions
Main benefit of WS analysis comes out of using WS for scenario planning, disagreement mgmt., etc.
WS can be ‚individual‘ or ‚historical‘
WS analysis needs to be
– Multimethod – Multidiciplinary – Multisourced
Like any other information, WS remain determined by context parameters (sources, scope, lenses …community)
04/11/2023 Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation)
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Contact Details
Christian Ambjörn Paul
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
https://www.zsi.at/users/156
http://kmr.nada.kth.se/wiki/Amb/HomePage
http://kmi.open.ac.uk/people/member/paul-lefrere