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TRANSCRIPT
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S o c i o - e p i s t e m i c c r i t i c i s m o f q u a l i t y c r i t e r i a f o r f o r e s i g h t
EXPLORING A NEW PATH IN FORES IGHT THEORY
E R D U A N A S H A L A , 11 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 5
1 7 t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l F u t u r e s C o n f e r e n c e
F u t u r e s S t u d i e s Ta c k l i n g W i c k e d
P r o b l e m s
S e s s i o n 1 : M e t h o d o l o g y I I I :
M e t h o d o l o g i c a l c h a l l e n g e s o f p a r t i c i p a t o r y
f u t u r e s r e s e a r c h
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1.Where foresight and epistemology meet
2.Elements of scientific inquiry
3.Science as social knowledge
4.Forms of scientific criticism
5.Socioepistemic validation of foresight quality criteria
Contents
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THEORY OF KNOWLEDGE•What is knowledge?•What is scientific?
What is futureknowledge?
SCIENCE AS SOCIAL KNOWLEDGE
discover, invent, examine & evaluatePOSSIBLE, PROBABLE & PREFERABLE FUTURES
SOCIOEPISTEMIC CRITICISM OF FORESIGHT QUALITY CRITERIA
•scientific criteria? •customer‘s interests?
quality criteria for foresight
Where foresight and epistemplogy meet
• criteria for scientific criticism
(Kuusi et al. 2015)
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aims
activities
“[…] method, the process by which knowledge is
produced, is the application of rules to data.” (Longino 1990: 66)
•forms of inquiry
Elements of scientif ic inquriy
(1) producing theories (2) producing concrete
interactions with natural processes
(3) producing models of natural processesknowledge
extensionfinding truth
•questions about the truth and referential character of scientific theories
main characteristic: objectivity
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aims
activities
“[…] method, the process by which knowledge is
produced, is the application of rules to data.” (Longino 1990: 66)
•forms of inquiry
Elements of scientif ic inquriy & foresight
(1) producing theories (2) producing concrete
interactions with natural processes
(3) producing models of natural processesknowledge
extensionfinding truth
•questions about the truth and referential character of scientific theories
main characteristic: objectivity
( ) ( )
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„Science as social knowledge“( L o n g i n o 1 9 9 0 )
processes
contextual values belong to the
social and cultural environment in
which science is done
(Longino 1990, 4)
social nature of scientific inquiry, science as social knowledge
constitutive values: source of the
rules constitutive for acceptablescientific practice or method(Longino 1990, 4)Scientific
inquiry requires
educationScientific disciplines are social
enterprises by practice
Science as society’s activity
depends on society’s valuing
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Forms of scientif ic crit icism
evidentialexperimental and observational concerns
•“accuracy, extent and conditions of performance of the experiments and observations serving as evidence”
•questions their analysis and reporting
conceptualtheoretical and meta-theoretical concerns
•conceptual soundness of a hypothesis
•consistency of a hypothesis with accepted theory
• relevance of evidence presented in support of a hypothesis
transformative
•Questioning backgroundassumptions in evidentialreasoning
•criteria for critical discourse
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Socioepistemic validation b a s e d o f L o n g i n o 1 9 9 0
1. Practices2. Questions3. Data4. Specific assuptions5. Global assumptions
Criteria fortransformative
criticism
Contextualvalues
affectingresearch
1. Recognized avenues for criticism2. Shared standards3. Community Response4. Equality of intellectual authority
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Socioepistemic validation of foresight quality criteria
“six pragmatic criteria of external validity of the futures map”
(1) Wide scope of possible future paths
(2) Most relevant futures paths
(3) Covering interpretation of past ‘facts’
(4) Effective interpretation of past ‘facts’
(5) Many people understand the map, e.g. simple visualisation
(6) Relevant experts understand the map
(EFFLA 2013)(Kuusi et al. 2015) (in thefollowing referred to asKCS criteria)
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2
1
3
4
5
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Strategic Intelligence
Sense Making
Sense Making/ Select Priorities
evidential
forms of epistemic criticismKCS quality criteria process
conceptual
transformative
Socioepistemic validation of foresight quality criteria
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KCS criteria in regard of objectivity & relevance
necessary but not sufficient forrelevance
scientific criteria users interests
Socioepistemic validation of foresight quality criteria
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Some conclusions
Although futures studies have different aims than classical sciences, they do use scientific processes and can also be validated by scientific criticism.
KCS quality criteria cover all forms of scientific criticism.
Matching the criteria to the different forms of criticism shows that foresight can be seen as a socioepistemic venture.
Today’s methodology session: transformative criticism of the KCS quality criteria (recognized avenue of criticism).
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
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Bell, W. (2003), Foundations of futures studies: History, purposes, and knowledge (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers).
European Forum on Forward Looking Activities – EFFLA (2013), Towards standards in Forward Looking Activities for the EC: EFLA Policy Brief N° 14 <http://ec.europa.eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/expert-groups/effla-reports/effla_pb_14_-_towards_a_foresight_standard.pdf>, accessed 2 Jun 2015.
Kuusi, O., Cuhls, K., and Steinmüller, K. (2015), ‘Quality criteria for futures research in Futura 1_2015’, Futura, 2015: 60–77.
Longino, H. E. (1990), Science as social knowledge: Values and objectivity in scientific inquiry (4. print, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton university press).
Literature
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Erduana Shala, M.A.
Competence Center Foresight
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
Breslauer Straße 48 | 76139 Karlsruhe
mailto:[email protected]
http://www.isi.fraunhofer.de
contact