exploring the impacts of climate change on health
TRANSCRIPT
Exploring the Health Effects of
Climate Change
Eddie Oldfield
Director, NB Climate Change Hub
www.nbhub.org
Hosted by the New Brunswick Lung Association
Thanks to NB Environmental Trust Fund
Temperature in recent years
Source of Picture:
www.whitehouse.gov/
Initiatives/Climate/next100
.html
Concentration of CO2 anticipated
for the year 2100: around 675 ppm
Concentration of CO2
for the year 1998: 365 ppm
Increase in average
temperature anticipated
for the year 2100:
between 1,4 et 5,8 C
Concentration of CO2 and Temperature Change
Today In 20 years…
Greenhouse gases warm the planet
Aerosols/particles can warm or cool
Sulphate, nitrate
and organic carbon
aerosols scatter
energy back to
space leading to
cooling.
Soot (black carbon)
aerosols absorb
energy and radiate
it into the
atmosphere.
Aerosol-cloud interactions are the greatest uncertainty.
Climate change and air quality are linked
They both are caused in part by burning fossil fuels
Increasing temperatures can increase air pollution
Greenhouse gases warm the planet. Some particles in the
atmosphere can either warm or cool the planet
Greenhouse gases Air Pollution
CO2, CH4, H20, CFCs, N2O SOx NOx VOCs PM CO Toxics
Increased temperatures
Changes in precipitation and
wind patterns
Climate
change
SO2
NO2
VOCs
CO
Toxics
More air
conditioners
Burning
fossil fuels
Mitigation: Most measures
air pollution
Biomass may
air pollution
Wind patterns bring more
hot days and smog
More pollen and mould
More forest fires
2050
2100
Approximate temperature changes
Canada (2050)/ Global (2100):
Blue -1 – 0
Green 1– 2/4
Yellow 2/4 – 3/5
Orange 3/5 – 5/7
Red 5/8 – 6/10
Climate Change Primary Impacts- Temperature and Precipitation
2050
2050
Approximate precipitation
changes (%) Canada/Global:
Orange -10/-20 – 0
Light Green 0 – 10/20
Mid green 10/20 – 20/40
Dark Green 20/40 – 30/80
Climate change may entail change in variance, as well as a change in mean (Watson, et al 2001)
Melting of polar ice caps
Sea level rise
More frequent and more severe
weather events (flooding, drought,
fire)
Ecozone shifts
Changes in patterns of transmission of
infectious disease
Increase in air pollution
Human displacement and health
effects
Predicted Climate Change Effects:
Health Effects
Direct Effects:
From heat waves
Est. Montreal (2050)
increase in deaths from
70 to 240-1140.
From weather disasters
Drowning, CO poisoning, hypothermia,
cardiovascular events
Increased illness and death from familiar causes
Increased likelihood of unfamiliar health outcomes
Temperature Anomaly, March 2012
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=77671
Health risks from changes in food production and
altered water quality and quantity
Indirect effects:
Mental and physical health consequences of
displacement of vulnerable populations
Alterations in transmission of infectious disease
Malaria, Dengue Fever, Encephalitis,
Cholera, Hantavirus, Cryptosporidiosis,
Lyme’s Disease, E. coli infection
Increased illness and death from respiratory disease,
due to increased air pollution, especially
ground-level ozone
Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality and
Respiratory Health
Increase in ambient air pollution
Increased use of air conditioners, refrigerators
increases power plant demand.
In regions where warm weather is carried on winds
coming from industrialized locations, increasing number of
warm and hot days will bring increasing number of poor air
days.
Temperature can affect precursors of smog, but
direct connections between temperature and chemical
reactions that make smog must be made with care.
Atmospheric chemistry is complex.
The best-studied air pollutants are:
Particulate matter (“fine” particles are < 2.5µ m /m3) (PM
2.5)
Ground-level ozone (O3)
There is no safe level of exposure
Acute health effects include congestion, difficulty breathing,
asthma attacks, chest pains, heart attacks (PM2.5), and
occasionally death. Chronic effects also include reduced lung
development, low birth weight, some evidence of cancer.
Vulnerable populations are those with pre-existing
respiratory and cardiovascular illness, the very young, the
elderly, and those with strenuous activities outdoors.
Pollution Cited as Factor in
French Heat Deaths Mon September 1, 2003 01:08 PM
ET
By Kerstin Gehmlich PARIS
(Reuters) - Air pollution may have
been the cause of death for
thousands of French people who
died in a heatwave that struck
Europe this August, an
environmental official said Monday.
"Several hundreds or thousands
could have been affected. Maybe
between 1,000 and 3,000," said
Jean-Felix Bernard, president of
France's Conseil National de l'Air, an
air quality agency attached to the
Environment Ministry.
Heat AND Air Pollution
There have been an increasing
number of instances where
people have died from combined
impacts of heat and air pollution.
See Toronto Public Health Study
for models of present and future
health impacts from heat and air
pollution in southern Ontario
Differential and Combined Impacts of Winter and
Summer Weather and Air Pollution due to
Global Warming on Human Mortality in South-central
Canada
(Project Number of the Health Policy Research Program:
6795-15-2001/4400011)
Chad Shouquan Cheng Meteorological Service of Canada
(MSC)—Ontario Region, EC
Monica Campbell Toronto Public Health, City of Toronto
Study shows heat and smog are killers Last Updated Mon, 06 Jun 2005 21:34:28 EDT
This study was conducted by a team of scientists from Toronto's public health department, the federal government and McMaster University in Hamilton. (Pengally, 2005) It concluded that extreme heat was killing an average of 120 people a year in Toronto, 121 in Montreal, 41 in Ottawa and 37 in Windsor. The air pollution that causes smog was found to be the cause of 822 deaths a year in Toronto, 818 in Montreal, 368 in Ottawa and 258 in Windsor. The study predicted that heat-related deaths will double by 2050 and triple by 2080 because of global warming. The scientists recommended the federal government introduce a national heat warning system such as Toronto's.
•Listen for Air Quality and Heat Alerts •Keep cool. •Take rests. •Drink lots of water •Check on elderly or frail who live alone •Take advantage of air conditioning in public places
Climate change and forest fires
CanadaAnnual Area Burned
Year
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Mil
lio
n h
ecta
res b
urn
ed
0
2
4
6
8
Key Factors:
•Fuel - loading, moisture, structure etc.
•Ignition - human and lightning
•Weather - To, precipitation atmospheric moisture and wind; upper atmospheric conditions
•Humans - land use, fragmentation, fire management etc.
(Courtesy of Brigitte Leblon)
An increase in forest fires in some regions
Burning wood releases PM, carbon monoxide,
polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and many other
toxins
Makes breathing difficult especially for asthmatics,
reduces immune system defenses against respiratory
infections. May cause heart attacks and long term
exposure can cause cancer.
Heat Wave, Fires Wreak Havoc in Southeast Europe
ROMANIA: July 25, 2007
BUCHAREST - Twelve Romanians died and fire-fighters, soldiers and
volunteers battled wildfires across southeastern Europe on Tuesday
as a persistent heat wave broke temperature records across the
region.
Serbia was battling 50 forest fires on what meteorologists predicted
would be the hottest day of the year, with the temperature topping
43 degrees Celsius (109 Fahrenheit).
In Romania, the heat wave's death toll rose to 30 and 19,000 people
had been admitted to hospital in the region's second devastating hot
spell this year.
Bucharest tried to cope with sporadic power blackouts under an
increased load of air conditioners and fans, but health officials
were able to cancel "Code Red" emergency measures declared on Monday
as they forecast easing temperatures.
An increase in mould growth, and possible
changes in types of mould
Unusual patterns of precipitation, storms and
flooding can result in mould growth.
Exposure to mould is suspected to cause asthma
in some people.
Species of mould unusual in Canada have been
found in BC forests. In a few instances this has
caused fever, aches and respiratory problems in
people.
Indoor air quality and climate change considerations
Moisture issues
Changes in building design for energy efficiency
Changes in timing and intensity of rainfall
Building on flood plains
2005- Katrina Cough
Basement mould
An increase in certain plants and their pollen
Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
and increased temperatures fosters growth in
some plants, such as ragweed.
This can lead to an increase in frequency and
severity of asthma and allergic reactions
Changes in distribution of deer mice infected with
Hantavirus
The variant of Sin Nombre Virus (SNV) in the US and
western Canada can cause a respiratory distress
syndrome.
Changes in precipitation/drought cycles can change the
predator/prey relationships which in turn affect the
distribution of mice.
Warmer marine water may favour the growth of certain
algae responsible for “red tides” which can produce
harmful toxins
In Canada so far these toxins are only a problem when
ingested
But examples in Florida (Karenia brevis) show that toxins
can be carried as aerosols into the air and cause nose and
throat irritation and asthma attacks
Malaria
Unlikely to impact Canada because of surveillance
and control systems
Certain species do cause respiratory symptom,
including Plasmodium vivax which occurred
naturally in Canada until the late 1800s.
Possible Negative Air Quality Impacts of
Certain Actions to Mitigate Climate Change
Biomass burning – Considered to be
“carbon neutral”
Increased energy-efficiency in buildings
without proper ventilation
Mould growth
Increased CO2
Radon
Switching from gasoline to diesel in
vehicles - Diesel is more efficient but
produces more air-borne toxins
Solutions to Mitigate Climate Change
AND Air Pollution
Unlike some solutions to reduce air pollutants that use
scrubbers etc. to remove pollutants from the “ends of stacks”,
carbon dioxide cannot be efficiently removed now (but
sequestration technology being actively developed).
Best solutions will reduce both types of pollution
Efficiency measures (reduce demand and burn fossil
fuels more efficiently)
Switch to renewable resources, but beware of biomass
burning and ethanol from food stock
Integrated strategies save money and have co-benefits
(GHG/ Air pollutants reduced and human health costs
avoided)
Health benefits costs can be greater than costs of
emissions reduction (US EPA:
IES Handbook: Guidance document for policymakers, technicians
International version of manual for EPA’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) software
Air Pollution Health Benefits Assessment Model (APHEBA) users’ guide and training course. )
Health cost benefits usually greater than climate
change benefits(McKinley et al 2005)
Communicating the Health Risks of Climate Change
Reference CCHO, Health Canada
http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/ewh-semt/pubs/climat/index-eng.php
Heat Event Public Health Alert and Response System
Air Quality Health Index
National Health Atlas / Portal?
Placeholder slide
Source: Vescovi, 2007
Heat vulnerability assessment
Adapting to Possible Increases in Ambient Air
Pollution
Personal actions (Efficiency measures,
switching time for electricity use, lawn
mowers, barbeques, reduce vehicle use)
Building air filtration technology
Technological and policy measures at
government and industry levels
The new Air Quality Health Index
www. airhealth.ca
GIS real-time mapping. Britain uses air
quality index and forecasts to plan hospital
emergency room staff levels.
Modeling future air quality is difficult
Modeling climate changes- fairly good
Predicted changes to temperature, precipitation, humidity,
wind
ADD TO THIS
Impact of changes to emissions
Increasing uncertainty / modeling of future air pollution
less accurate
Maps Can Help Us Make the Links
Heat Stress
Air Quality
Syndromic Surveillance
Hospitalization Costs
Public Health Resources
Health Indicators
Beta WMS,
Environment
Canada
SEA-LEVEL RISE &
STORM SURGES
NBLA Web Mapping Portal OGC compliant web-mapping application provides access to
credible, closest to source, health, population, and environmental
indicators in support of decision-making
Quick Web Map Viewer (to consume WMS, WFS, WPS)
Operations Center / Remote Participants
Time series automation with time-tag in WMS
ARCGIS SERVER .NET
These Sample Maps Are Health Maps from Previous
Geospatial Projects (2003-2008)
Theme
PopulationHealth trends
Vulnerablepopulations
links
Database
links
links
HighlightsFeatures
Best practices
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Climate change impacts on
public health (e.g. heat
events, air quality, extreme
weather, vector borne and
transmissible diseases)
Environmental
Information (e.g.
weather, climate,
pollution, humidity)
Population health trends
(e.g. wellness indicators,
respiratory illness in
population, spatial
distribution of diseases)
Best Practices: Public
Health Adaptation;
Emergency Management,
Medicine, Urban Planning
Vulnerable Populations
Events and Conferences
(e.g. calendar,
announcements)
Links to Peer Reviewed
research articles or
journals
Links to data sources and
models
Links to research or
education programs
offered in Canada
Highlights and Featured
publications
User requirements survey for National Portal,
Health Canada
Experts
search and query tools
(e.g. by topic, author,
location, source, content/
keywords)
navigation and toolbar
(e.g. zoom, print or export,
upload/download, profile)
visualization tools (e.g.
images, graphs, charts,
maps)
collaboration tools (e.g. wiki,
discussion forums, working
groups, for registered users)
other research tools (e.g.
published research methods,
templates or frameworks,
session save/retrieval,
‘favouriting’ entries, digital
archival, research timeline /
group calendar, citing, data
services / analytics)
Contact, Social Media, RSS
access to experts,
community-of-practice
members, help tools
upload and download
capabilities
export (e.g. data,
publications, visuals)
alerting /
subscription
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Features & Functions
KEY DATA SOURCES
Framework data – GeoBase, NTS, Public Health Agency of Canada (Map and Data Exchange)
Licensed data from NB Department of Health, Canadian Institute for Health Information, Public Health Agency of Canada
New Brunswick Lung Association Map Layers (community outreach programs)
Heat event public health alerting – 2011 pilot in 4 cities (including Fredericton) – expanding in 2012, Health Canada
Humidity, Temperature, Precipitation, Air Quality Data: Meteorological Service Canada (e.g. via WMS – Beta phase)
Regional Downscale Climate Scenarios for Atlantic Canada – (e.g. future WMS & WCS) Weather (WXXM, GRIB, DBF), CCCSN
http://cccsn.ca/?page=main&lang=en
Air Quality Health Index – Ozone reporting / Health Index
Atlantic Region Air Monitoring Sites: http://atlantic-web1.ns.ec.gc.ca/airmons/index_e.cfm (no longer available)
National Air Pollutant Survey (NAPS) – Environment Canada, published in CEC Atlas
National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) – Environment Canada, published in CEC Atlas
MODIS – NASA: http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/index.php
Canada: Geogratis: http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca/download/EO_Data/MODIS/ / http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca/download/
Service New Brunswick – building the NB Shared Data Infrastructure (http://geonb.snb.ca/geonb/ viewer)
NB Department of Environment: monitoring stations, flood & watershed data, water quality, EIAs
Flood Modeling – useful for health outcomes related to molds / mosquito populations / West Nile
Forestry Service – species distribution, health, and disease
Statistics Canada – many health indicator data sets
Sea Level Rise – Environment Canada
OTHER DATA SETS OF INTEREST
Ambient Particulate Matter .5, 2.5, 10
New Brunswick Lung Association conducts studies in partnership with health authorities to
determine exposure to ozone, PM, and other air pollutants
monitoring real time exposures & emissions of Particulate Matter
Fleet & Traffic-related pollution
Residential and Commercial radon concentrations
Airborne Fungal Concentrations in Public Schools
Sulfur dioxide concentration from petroleum processing plants
Extreme Weather Data / Forecasts
Forest Fires / Smog Alerts
Geographic and temporal distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
Pest / Insect Infestations
Rabies
Population Distribution
by Health Region
