export prospects for the caribbean...export performance and prospects for the caribbean victor...
TRANSCRIPT
Export Performance and Prospects for the Caribbean
Victor Bulmer-Thomas
Definitions of the Caribbean
• CARICOM •CARIFORUM •Independent Caribbean States •All Island States •All Islands plus the three Guianas and Belize • ACS definition
West India Commission (1992)
“The deteriorating export performance of CARICOM economies over the past twenty years must be a cause of great concern to the Governments and policy makers of the Region.” (p.144)
Shares of World Merchandise Exports (%), 1990-2011
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.351
99
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
02
01
1
CARICOM Caribbean
Shares of World Merchandise Imports (%), 1990-2011
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.551
99
01
99
11
99
2
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
CARICOM Caribbean
Shares of World Service Exports (%), 1990-2011
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.11
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
CARICOM Caribbean
Shares of World Travel Exports (%), 1990-2011
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.51
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
CARICOM Caribbean
Ratio of Caribbean Total Exports to GDP, 1960-2010 (current US$)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Change in Ratio of Total Exports to GDP (%): 2006-10
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Actual v. Predicted (E/GDP) Ratios
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Export Cycles in the Caribbean • Pre-1880s. Country Monoculture (Sugar, Coffee, Timber, Gold) •c.1890-c.1950. Country Shift (Commodity Diversification) • c.1950-c.2010. Paradigm Shift (Tourism) •c.2010- Paradigm or Country Shifts?
Options for Export-led Growth
•Goods or Services
•Intra-regional or Extra-Regional
•Choice of Core Countries
•Competiveness
Services as %age of Total Exports, 1960-2008
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
Caribbean Caribbean excl Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago
Tourist Arrivals: Caribbean Share of World (%), 1995-2010
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
Non-Tourist Service Exports
•Educational Services •Medical Services •Musical Services (including festivals) •Sports Training and Facilities •Film Festivals •Financial Services •Telecommunication Services •Space Services •Conference Facilities
Merchandise Exports as %age of Total, 2002-11
Brazil China Mexico Russia Sub-Total
CARICOM 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.2 4.2
Hispaniola 0.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 2.1
Cuba 2.1 20.3 1.0 4.0 27.4
Dutch Territories 2.1 0.0 4.0 0.0 6.1
Caribbean 1.0 2.5 1.8 0.5 5.8
CARICOM (excl. Haiti)
•50 per cent of Caribbean countries •25 per cent of Caribbean trade •20 per cent of Caribbean GDP •15 per cent of Caribbean population •Intra-regional exports 13.4 per cent of total •Intra-regional imports 8.6 per cent of total •Widening v. Deepening
Merchandise Imports, c.2010
Merchandise Merchandise
Imports (US$bn) Imports per head (US$)
CARICOM 29.2 4,301
Hispaniola 18.3 930
Cuba 15.4 1,369
British Territories 2.7 20,202
French Territories 9.1 8,452
Dutch Territories 4.2 14,000
US Territories 59.8 14,707
CARIBBEAN 138.5 3,203
Competitiveness
•Global Competitiveness Index •Ease of Doing Business Index •Corruption Index •Economic Freedom Index •Labour Productivity (GDP per hour worked) •Real Effective Exchange Rate
GDP per person engaged (1990=100)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Trinidad St. Lucia Jamaica Dom Rep Barbados
Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2011 (2005 = 100)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140