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Extrapolating the Dutch Experience Kees Schotten Wideke Boersma Camiel Heunks Slide 2 Demand for information 5th Memorandum on physical planning Possible spatial developments given social and economic drivers and ongoing spatial policy Distance to target to policy targets or societal aims related to economy, ecology and social structure The pros and cons of various spatial principles Slide 3 Spatial allocation Autonomous spatial developments Spatial policy for collective forms of land use INPUT (Starting point) AUTONOMOUS ECONOMIC SCENARIOS Economic Growth (Industry and Agriculture) Demographic developments Land Use claims fit in the available area ? ANALYSIS Capacity of the area (The Netherlands) Effects ecology, social/ cultural, economy Slide 4 Slide 5 Starting point 3 AUTONOMOUS SCENARIOS Slide 6 Capacity : The claimed area is 46 000 ha more then available! Slide 7 Spatial allocation of land use Spatial alternatives Driving forces Economic strong land use forms replace weaker land use forms Corrective forces Policy for Nature, Landscape, Recreation and Environment Effects Slide 8 Policy assumptions behind land use change 1995 - 2020 1995 -2010 Residential areas : 4th memorandum practice; not inside natural areas Industry : None Infra : Realisation of the Long Term Infrastructure policy (MIT99) Natuur : Realisation Ecological Network (EHS) Agriculture: None 2010 - 2020 Residential areas : Autonomous developments; not inside natural areas Industry : None Infra : Realisation 1a, 2, and 3 projects of MIT99 Natuur : Total realisation Ecological Network (EHS) Agriculture: None Slide 9 Foreseen Ecological Network in 2020 Existing natural areas New natural areas Slide 10 Chances for the development of residential areas for Randstad Holland based on historical trends (1980 - 1995) Autonomous developments Slide 11 The model Slide 12 Slide 13 ThemeIndicator Natural area Coherency nature Fauna Flora Use of energy (CO2) N surplus in groundwater Deposition ammonia Water depleted natural area Proximity recreation Quality of recreation Quieting in Landscape Openness Landscape Historical value Landscape Flooding risk Water surplus Commuting by car Commuting by train Nature Environment Recreation Landscape Safety Mobility -40-200204060 Present-2020 Slide 14 The Dutch experience: Conclusion The effects are for a large part determined by the spatial principles This urges to evaluate spatial alternatives Many methodological and practical problems to solve: Data, etc Main problem will be the growing complexity of this type of integrated assessments Slide 15 Expanding the Dutch experience Slide 16 Scale levels National / Regional: learning of each other experiences Regional / Cross border: inclusion of european driving forces in national simulations Europe: simulation on a European scale Slide 17 The impact of cross bordereffects on the Netherlands Slide 18 Slide 19 Slide 20 Simulation result: Slide 21 Effectindicator on biodiversity Slide 22 Final Conclusions Main advantage is the quantification of the effects of different spatial alternatives, supporting open and clear evaluation Main methodogical problem will be the growing complexity of this type of integrated assessments Land use simulation on an European scale level: Keep it simple select only a few effect indicators Focus analyses on the main driving forces Select a few test sites throughout Europe : to gain fundamental understanding of driving forces to stratify Europe on basis of demand of land and driving forces