A Decision Support System for Ecosystem-Based Management ofTropical Coral Reef Environments

F. Muller-Karger, M. Eakin, L. Guild,M. Vega, R. Nemani, T. Christensen, L. Wood, C. Ravillious,C. Hu, C. Nim, J. Li, C. Fitzgerald, J. Hendee, L. Gramer, S.

Lynds

NASA and Earth ScienceEarth Science Division

Applied Sciences Program

Partnerships

NOAA NESDIS/CRW-CRCP (M. Eakin, T. Christensen, J. Li, G. Liu)

NOAA AOML / ICON/CREWS-CRCP (J. Hendee, L. Gramer)

NASA Ames (L. Guild, R. Nemani)UNEP-WCMC (L. Wood, C. Ravilious, C. Fitzgerald)U. South Florida (F. Muller-Karger, C. Hu, M. Vega, B.

Barnes)U. Colorado-CIRES (S. Lynds)Australia (W. Skirving, S. Heron / NOAA)

AcknowledgementsFunding provided by:

NASA Applied Sciences ProgramWoody Turner2008 Ecological Forecasting

application area4-year program (2009-2013)

NOAANESDIS Coral reef Watch

UNEP WCMC (World Conservation Monitoring Centre)

Objectives of the ProgramAssess and meet needs in coral reef

research, management, education

Assess value of high-resolution (1 km ) data(MODIS, AVHRR, other)

Link to higher-resolution mapsGlobal Coral Reef Millennium MapLandsat, other present and future sensors

Accomplishments: 2010-2011Completed user survey for NOAA Coral Reef Watch

products.Developed global high-resolution 4km SST

climatologyDeployed a website with 1 km Coral Reef Watch

(CRW) products for the Florida Keys.Developed prototype cold water event index (cold

snap index) for the Florida Keys.UNEP WCMC integrated the NASA Coral Reef

Millennium Map into their online databases with a Mapserver interface (http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/13).

MARK – add your slides hereI have some slides here you can use (or

delete…)

Add:CRW backgroundApproach to the NASA-NOAA DSS programNew work on climatologiesNew medium and high res high temperature

stress products (AVHRR, MODIS)

High Resolution Prototype CRW Products based on:4 km AVHRR Global PathfinderClimatology

1 km MODIS and AVHRR(Test area: Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary)

High resolution preserves spatial patterns of importance to reefs

High-resolution (1-km) AVHRR SST imagery (NOAA-16 satellite) showing small-scale (∼1020 km, ∼< 1 ◦C) frontal eddies (annotated with black arrows) along the shallow isobaths in the Florida Straits

January 22, 2002 at 7:36 GMT and January 23, 2002 at 18:45 GMT. Eddies are due to shelf wave dynamics, and they cannot be detected by coarser

resolution data (4 km or lower).

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Comparison of HotSpot on Sep 17, 2005

4km resolution HotSpot from Pathfinder nighttime only SST without filling gaps

From CRW 50km operational HotSpot

Issue One: Climatology

Objective:• Build new climatology

at higher resolution

Approach:– Use Pathfinder SST

• 20 y, cross-referenced

– 4 km, nightime, best data– Period:

• Original 50-km NOAA Operational:– Jan 1985 to Dec 1993

excluding 1991 and 1992• New approach:

– Jan 1985 to Dec 2006

• Issues:– Gaps in space and time

– Approach:• Filled gaps in time, then in space

Pathfinder SST v5Percent ‘low quality’ data 1985-2006

Maximum Monthly Mean (MMM) SSTDerived from Pathfinder 4 km Monthly Climatology

Gulf of Mexico /Florida Keys area

High Resolution Stress IndicesCRW ‘HotSpot’

Used USF real-time LAC 1-km AVHRR SST imagesDerived twice-weekly averagesInterploated Pathfinder 4km MMM climatology to

1km|Index:

HotSpot = SST - MMM_SST_climatologyThe ‘HotSpot’ highlights anomalies 1.0 °C ≥ MMM SST

climatology(yellow to red color)

CRW HotSpot product for the CaribbeanAugust 8, 2011

USF HotSpot productsAugust 8, 2011

E50_hotspot.20110808.florida.png

E4km_hotspot.20110808.florida.png

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July 25, 2011

August 8, 2011

CRW HotSpot

HotSpot products for the West Florida ShelfAugust 29, 2011

NASA MODIS SSTBased on Pathfinder 4km MMM

USF AVHRR SSTBased on Pathfinder 4km MMM

High Resolution Stress IndicesCRW ‘Degree-Heating Weeks’

• Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) calculated using HotSpots:

•   DHWs = 0.5 * Summation of previous 24 twice-weekly HotSpots, where HotSpots have to be at least 1.0 °C to be accumulated.

Methods

• Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) was calculated using the HotSpots that we produced previously.– Calculations were done as implemented by NOAA.

•   DHWs = 0.5 * Summation of previous 24 twice-weekly HotSpots, where HotSpots have to be at least 1.0 °C to be accumulated.

CRW DHW product for the CaribbeanSeptember 15, 2011

USF DHW products for the West Florida ShelfSeptember 15, 2011

E50_DHW.20110915.florida.png

E4km_DHW.20110915.florida.png

Cold Stress Index

• Corals have a lower temperature limit under which they are susceptible to stress and death

• Objective:–develop high spatial resolution cold-stress

index to help monitor and forecast coral bleaching or mortality due to cold stress.

Acknowledgement: Collaboration between M. Vega - Rodriguez, F. Muller - Karger, J. Li, C. M. Eakin, L. Guild, C. Hu, G. Liu, S. Lynds, R. Nemani, S. Heron, G. Quiles - Pérez, D. Lirman, R. Ruzicka

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2010 Florida Keys Case Study

• JAN 2010: Anomalously cold temperatures• Widespread mortality in coral reefs• SST observations helped guide a field survey

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In situ temperatures

Developing a ‘Cold Snap’ Index

Approach:Nighttime - only AVHRR Pathfinder (v5.0) SST

data at a 4 km spatial resolution (no gap filling) used to create higher resolution climatologies from 1985 – 2006

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Daily AVHRR Pathfinder SST(4 km – remapped to 1km)

vs. daily USF daily SST(AVHRR 1 km LAC)

‘So what?’Linking science and managementUltimately, the goal is to improve our ability

to alert reef managers around the world of bleaching-level stress, so they can take appropriate actions.

In the Florida Keys, the CRW products have already helped:Guide Rapid Response efforts to assess

reef conditionsInform the public about what may be

happening on the reef when corals are visibly stressed

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