faculty council student enrollment dr. bernadette gray-little, executive vice chancellor and provost...
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Faculty Council
Student Enrollment
Dr. Bernadette Gray-Little,Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost
September 15, 2006
The University of North Carolina
at Chapel Hill
Exploring Enrollment Trends:Current Status and Projections
Fall 2005 total enrollment was 27,276.
Current long-range plan, submitted to GA in Dec. 2005, projects 29,447 students by Fall 2015.
This plan exceeds all previous projections.
The Scholarship Provision increased the 10-year projected growth in undergraduates by 683.
Change in Undergraduate Projections in Response to Scholarship Provision
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
18000
18500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revised 12/05 Plan Original 5/05 Plan
18,332
17,649
Concerns with the Present Enrollment Plan
Ability to maintain selectivity and quality of entering first year class;
Availability of space for classrooms, offices, laboratories, etc., which lags behind projected enrollment growth by 18-24 months.
Analyses of the Effects of Enrollment Growth
In considering growth beyond the current projection of 29,477 by 2015, we analyzed the potential effects of two expanded models: A 30,000 model that represents incremental,
but consequential, growth above the current plan; and,
A 35,000 model that represents rapid growth above the current plan. We considered and then discarded this model because of its profound implications for the academic, fiscal, and operational environment at Carolina.
Principles of Enrollment Growth
Sustain quality. No enrollment growth without faculty growth. No enrollment growth without appropriate level
of staff growth. Maintain commitment to our historical balance
of undergraduate, graduate, and professional education.
No enrollment growth without space provided in advance.
Maintain the residential character of campus – “a bed for every new (undergraduate) head.”
Improve the five-year graduation rate. Maintain a commitment to diversity.
* Developed by the Provost’s Enrollment Policy Advisory Committee and presented to the Board of Trustees in 2003.
Planning Assumptions (continued)
Main campus will absorb enrollment growth. Revenue from contracts and grants will
increase in proportion to the size of the faculty, but not at the same rates observed in the past decade.
The State of North Carolina will continue to fund 100% of projected enrollment increases.
The Campus Master Plan will govern development.
UNC-Chapel Hill Total StudentsHistorical and Projected
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000
Historical 24141 24,189 24,238 24,635 24,872 25,464 26,028 26,359 26,878 27,276 27,726
29,447 27,726 28,188 28,588 28,891 29,101 29,212 29,306 29,374 29,432 29,447
30,000 27,726 28,346 28,808 29,125 29,386 29,576 29,765 29,885 29,986 30,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UNC-Chapel Hill Total Faculty and StaffHistorical and Projected
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
Historical 8,883 9,288 9,619 10,011 9,725 10,111 10,481 10,676 10,935 11,036 11,428
29,447 11,428 11,707 11,804 11,967 12,157 12,127 12,236 12,234 12,266 12,305
30,000 11,428 11,786 11,917 12,090 12,307 12,317 12,450 12,465 12,520 12,542
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UNC-Chapel Hill First Year StudentsHistorical and Projected
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
Historical 3,278 3,417 3,437 3,396 3,415 3,687 3,460 3,516 3,589 3,751 3,827
29,744 3,827 3,879 3,911 3,943 3,949 3,960 3,975 3,975 3,975 3,975
30,000 3,827 3,885 3,920 3,960 3,980 4,000 4,005 4,005 4,005 4,005
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Implications of Expanded Enrollment Growth on:
Academic Quality of Entering Classes
Non-Academic Areas
Effects of Enrollment Growth on the Quality of Entering
Undergraduate Students
Current Admission Outcomes
Fall 2006 baseline: 19,733 applications 34.1% admission rate 56.9% yield rate Our current admission and yield rates
are exceptionally good in comparison to other large research institutions.
Effects of Enrollment Growth on Yield Rate
Yield Rate = Percentage of admitted students who enroll. Results of recent survey* suggest that larger
enrollments would make Carolina less attractive to admitted students and that a significant percentage would choose not to enroll.
• Predicted net loss of 159 (4% of admitted class) would occur with a total enrollment of 30,000.
• Students who said that they would not come to Carolina if it grows to those levels tended to be those at the top of the admitted class.
*Source: 2006 UNC-Chapel Hill Admitted Student Survey
Effects of Enrollment Growth on Class Quality Indicators
As a result of lower yields of the top students, entering class quality indicators are likely to decline: Average SAT score Average high school GPA Average rank in high school class
Potential Effects of Enrollment Growthon Selectivity
Selectivity = the percentage of applicants accepted for admission. To maintain our current selectivity (34%), we would
need to increase the number of applications received from 19,733 in 2006 to 21,331 in 2015 at a total enrollment of 30,000
Additional applicants would come from the academically weaker portion of the applicant pool, because the majority of the top North Carolina high school students already apply to Carolina:
• 69% of those with SAT scores of 1300 • 69% of those in the top 5% of their high school class
Potential Effects of Enrollment Growth on the Diversity of the Entering Class
Enrollment increases may limit efforts to strengthen diversity in the entering class: Inequities in the quality of K-12 preparation
continue to constrict the pipeline of highly competitive students from underrepresented groups.
Carolina’s share of this pipeline is already large:
• For example, this year all but 15 African-American students statewide with SAT scores of 1300 and higher applied to Carolina.
Under an expanded growth model, minority presence, measured as a percentage of total enrollment, is likely to decrease.
Effects of Enrollment Growth on Research
Effects of Enrollment Growth on Research
Importance of the ratio of faculty to students:
• With more students, faculty have less time to devote to scholarly/scientific activities.
Maintaining the current faculty-student ratio, a guiding principle for UNC-Chapel Hill enrollment growth, has been a challenge in recent years. Although we have received enrollment growth funding,
budget cuts have eroded these resources and limited their intended use in expanding the faculty to teach the additional students.
ImprovingImproving the faculty-student ratio, a measure of institutional quality, becomes even more difficult as we increase the number of students.
Effects of Enrollment Growth on Student Affairs
Student Affairs: Implications of Growth Plan to 29,447 or 30,000
Housing capacity will be adequate to supply a “bed for every new undergraduate head.”
Campus Health Services facilities will need to be expanded to meet increased demand for services.
The existing ratio of staff to students in several service areas is already is unfavorable compared to peers, and will get worse.
Lack of meeting space has been identified by student leaders as the greatest problem facing student groups and organizations, and this too will worsen.
Summary
Summary
The University has exceeded its enrollment growth commitments, increasing by 13% over the past ten years.
Current enrollment plans will add 2,201 students by 2015. This represents an additional 8% growth over the next ten year period.
The current growth plan (29,447) presents challenges with classroom and office space, the number of faculty and staff required to serve students according to our standards, and possibly infrastructure and town issues.
The 30,000 growth model would add 553 additional students to the current plan. This would represent a 10% growth over the next ten year period.