faisal basri - indonesia now and beyond.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012*
GDP gowth (y‐o‐y, %) 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.1 6.4 6.4
Nominal GDP, current prices (trillions Rp) 3,951 4,949 5,604 6,423 7,294 8,462
Nominal GDP, current prices (billions US$) 510.2 539.4 711.7 846.8 950.0
GDP per capita (current prices, US$) 1,938 2,270 2,590 3,005 3,495 3,815
PopulaLon (mill) 225.6 228.5 231.4 237.6 242.3 249.0
Open unemployment rate (%) 9.8 8.6 7.9 7.6 6.6 6.0
InflaLon rate (%, year end) 6.6 11.2 2.8 7.0 3.8 5.1
BI rate (%, year end) 8.00 9.25 6.50 6.50 6.00 6.50
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) ‐1.3 ‐0.1 ‐1.6 ‐1.0 ‐1.2 ‐1.5
Public debt (% of GDP) 35.2 33.0 29.5 28.3 26.4 25.0
Currrency (Rp/US$, average) 9,163 9,756 10,356 9,080 8,780 8,550
Current account balance (% of GDP) 2.4 0.1 1.9 1.2 0.2 ‐3.4
Reserves (US$ billions) 56.9 52.1 66.1 96.2 110.1 106.0
S&P's RaLng BB‐ BB‐ BB‐ BB BB+ BBB‐
Sumber: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)
Indonesia Jepang
66%
28%
6%
Source: World Bank, “Indonesia economic update: Near-term issues and looking ahead to 2012, “ March 2011.
17,475
11,347 12,855
16,298
3,583
7,243
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Japan Korea Rep Hong Kong Singapore Indonesia Indonesia
Rea
l GD
P pe
r cap
ita (c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1970 2000 1982 1991 2030 2030
Assuming 6% Growth
Assuming 10% Growth
GDP per Capita when demographic bonus ends:
Indonesia is likely to get old before it gets rich
Source: World Bank.
Source: World Bank, “Indonesia economic update: Near-term issues and looking ahead to 2012, “ March 2011.
Public Debt to GDP raHos
1999 2009
Source: ADB based on BPS.
Class Cut‐off
< $1.25 21.9% 14.0%
$1.25 ‐ $2 40.3% 29.3%
$2 ‐ $4 32.1% 38.5%
$4 ‐ $6 3.9% 11.7%
$6 ‐ $10 1.3% 5.0%
$10 ‐ $20 0.3% 1.3%
High > $20 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
2003
62.2%
37.7%
43.2%
56.5% Middle
Low
2010
Note: Per capita expenditure per day is adjusted to the 2005 purchasing power parity terms. Source: World Bank, March 2011, based on Susenas.
Percent of popula4on
Source: World Bank, June 2012
To a growing middle class…
Source: Nota Keuangan 2009.
Source: World Bank, June 2012
A decade of robust growth: …trailing only China and India
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/07/gdp-projections-china-us-uk-brazil based on PwC.
Source:
“Untuk membangun Indonesia menjadi negara besar, negara kuat, negara makmur, negara damai yang merupakan National Building bagi negara Indonesia, maka negara dapat menjadi kuat jika dapat menguasai lautan. Untuk menguasai lautan kita harus menguasai armada yang seimbang.” (Ir. Soekarno dalam National Maritime Convention I (NMC), 1963)
Region Rice Wheat flour Sugar Cooking oil Salt
East Jawa 4,250 3,606 6,000 4,150 1,600
West Kalimantan 4,400 4,000 5,800 4,500 2,450
East Kalimantan 4,500 4,000 6,500 4,500 2,000
South Sulawesa 4,400 3,500 6,500 4,500 2,000
East Nusa Tenggara 4,200 4,500 5,800 6,300 2,000
Merauke 5,000 7,000 7,000 6,670 3,000
Nabire 6,000 10,000 11,000 11,000 4,000
Paniai 18,000 7,500 8,000 7,000 8,000
Source: Ministry of Trade.
It is cheaper to ship mandarins to Jakarta from China than from Pontianak
Cement in Papua is 20 times more expensive than in Jakarta because of shipping costs
Container Shipment cost: Padang – Jakarta = US$ 600 Jakarta – Singapore = US$185
Source: R.J. Lino’s presentatatiom, March 2011.
Source: R.J. Lino’s presentatatiom, March 2011.
