Fall-Winter Season 2019-2020Beans and Chickpeas

Felipe Sandoval

Cancun, Mexico

February 2020

Bean Industry in Mexico

SupplyImports

*USA

*Argentina

*China

*Brasil

* Black / Pinto

Spring SummerCycle

* Black / Pinto / Colored

* Chihuahua / Durango / Zacatecas

Fall Winter Cycle

* Yellow / Pinto / Black Colored

* Sinaloa / Nayarit / Sonora

DistributionWholesalers

Central de Abastos

Distribuidoras

*

Retailers

Supermarkets

Convinience Stores

Abarroteras

Industry

Packers

Processors

Consumption

126 Millions

Percapita 6 kg

756,000 MT

Percapita 7 kg

882,000 MT

Percapita 8 kg

1,080,000 MT

Take a look at thenewspaper, tv,

networks, phonecalls, meetings and

you see iteverywhere

Daño a 9 mil hectáreas de frijol, saldo preliminar de

las lluvias en Sinaloa

Lo más crítico está en la región del Évora, aunque

también hay afectaciones en Navolato y Guasave, indicó

el Subsecretario de Agricultura

Por el mal tiempo peligra 70% de la zona frijolera en

Nayarit

En la zona norte de la entidad, se estima que se tienen 30

mil hectáreas sembradas de las que cinco mil se echaron

a perder a principios del año

Disminuye la cosecha de frijol en un 46 %

Según datos de la Sader, se redujo en 2019 respecto a la producción de 2018

Zacatecas, Durango, Chihuahua, Sonora, Nayarit,

everywhere. Newspapers and media pushing farmers

Thinking about all, what is on my

mind?The Perfect Storm

Blew my mind

Bean Production in Sinaloa

2010-2019

2010-2019

Average

PlantedArea

89,500 Ha.

Production

130,000 MT

Price

$15,500.00

• Almost 100% yellow kidney beans.• Source: SIAP SAGARPA / SIVASA

Bean Production in Sinaloa 2020 (F)

2019-2020 Cycle

Intention

100,000 Ha.

Given USA and Spring-Summer cycle

conditions

Planted Area

60,000 Ha.

60% of expected

* Expensive Seed

*Water availability

* Limited Financing

* Early Rains

Short Harvest and LowQuality

* Rains at the beginning

* November rains

* February Rains

* Cold Weather

Bean Production in Sinaloa

2019-2020 (F)

Season Damage

2018-2019 2019-2020 (F) 15% 25%

Planted Area (Hectares) 35,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00

Harvested Area (Hectares) 35,000.00 57,000.00 51,000.00 45,000.00

Yield (MT per HA) 1.57 1.57 1.4 1.2

Production (Metric Tons) 54,950.00 89,490.00 71,400.00 54,000.00

Carry Over (Metric Tons) 50,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00

Available for Sale (Metric Tons) 104,950.00 99,490.00 81,400.00 64,000.00

Exports (Metric Tons) 15,000.00 15,000.00 15,000.00 15,000.00

Seed (Metric Tons) 6,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00

Waste (Metric Tons) 2,000.00 3,311.13 2,641.80 1,998.00

Self Consumption (Metric Tons) 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00

Available for Domestic Market (Metric Tons) 80,950.00 70,178.87 52,758.20 36,002.00

Domestic Consumption (Metric Tons) 70,950.00 70,178.87 52,758.20 36,002.00

Final Stock (Metric Tons) 10,000.00 - - -

Domestic Consumption per Month (Metric Tons) 5,912.50 5,848.24 4,396.52 3,000.17

Quality Issues

• Stained

• Wrinkled

• Rotten

• 25-30% Harvested

• 35-40% Cut

• 30-35% Stand

What isHappening?

• Farmersrenegotiating

• No show trucks

• Farmers storing

Bean Production in Sinaloa

Price Behavior

Factors 2019

StocksDomestic PintoImported Pinto

Household IncomePrevious Year Loss

Forecast ProductionQuality Issues

Competition

Factors 2020

StocksDomestic PintoImported Pinto

Forecast ProductionFarmers Pushing

HouseHold IncomeQuality Issues

Disperse OwnersOverspeculation

Subtitute Products

Bean Production in Nayarit

2010-2019

2010-2019

Average

PlantedArea

58,500 Ha.

Production

63,000 MT

Yield

1.16

• Pinto, Black Jamapa, Colored, Yellow• Source: SIAP SAGARPA / SIVASA

Bean Production in Nayarit

2018, 2019 and 2020

Planted Area (Hectares) and Estimated Production

• Rains• 90% of planted area stand• Damage not estimated yet

2018MT

2019MT

Planted 2020

Production (F)MT

Black Jamapa 23,041.67 14,200.00 22,500.00 26,100.00

Yellow Beans 28,527.78 7,100.00 7,500.00 8,700.00

Pinto Beans 17,555.56 35,500.00 30,000.00 34,800.00

Light Beans 9,875.00 14,200.00 15,000.00 17,400.00

Production 79,000.00 71,000.00 75,000.00 87,000.00

Chickpeas Production 2009-2018

Sinaloa + Sonora + Baja

2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 AVG

Planted Area (Hectares) 63,331.00 48,819.00 73,682.00 166,841.00 74,140.00 85,362.60

Production (Metric Tons) 107,031.00 86,285.00 138,009.00 303,832.00 165,677.00 160,166.80

Chickpeas Production 2015-2019

Cycle Planted Area Price to Farmers (USD/MT)% Planted Area change

% Price

Change

2015-2016 48,800.00 $ 1,045.00

2016-2017 73,700.00 $ 1,480.00 51.02% 41.63%

2017-2018 166,800.00 $ 800.00 126.32% -45.95%

2019 74,100.00 $ 620.00 -55.58% -22.50%

2020 ? ? ? ?

5 years Average 85,000.00 $ 836.00

Price Sensitivity vs Planted Area 2016-2019

2017 2018 2019

Opening Price $ 27.50 $ 17.50 $ 17.00

Avg Price $ 28.30 $ 14.80 $ 12.00

Highest Price $ 32.00 $ 20.00 $ 17.00

Lowest Price $ 23.00 $ 11.00 $ 6.00

Price Paid to Farmers2017 -2019

Chickpeas Production 2017 Vs 2018 Vs 2019

Planted Area2017-2020

2017 2018 2019 2020 %Var 2018 Vs 2019 %Var 2019 vs 2020

Sinaloa 44,200.00 101,450.00 38,574.00 26,000.00 -61.98% -32.60%

Sonora 25,700.00 60,293.00 22,237.00 10,000.00 -63.12% -55.03%

South Baja 3,800.00 4,468.00 4,203.00 2,000.00 -5.93% -52.41%

Total Planted 73,700.00 143,800.00 65,014.00 38,000.00 -54.79% -41.55%

Chickpeas Production

Chickpeas Harvest• Lowest Price and payment delay• Domestic market consumption• Effect came a year later• Lowest Planted Area• Frost In Sonora• Frost in Sinaloa• India not Exporting• Price CFR $1,200- $1,300• Opening Price to Farmers $800

THANKYOU VERY MUCH AND ENJOY CANCUN

FELIPE SANDOVALTRADER

BEANS AND GRAINS INTERNATIONAL TRADERSBEGRAIT

www.begrait.comfelipe_sandoval@begrait.com

Mob. + 52 1 687 174 8663